Friday Afternoon Expansion Talk

Lots of (opinionated) discussion on the SFN Forums about the inevitable next round of college football expansion and realignment, and more precisely, how it will affect State. So go on over there and join the fun, and it’s likely you’ll even win a $100 Walmart gift card, or maybe one of the few remaining ipads.

We already knew Texas A&M was considering SEC membership, but now Florida State is “flirting” with the SEC, and possibly others from the ACC as well. LRM writes that he is impressed Texas A&M is being proactive about its future, and adds that eventually the ACC and Big East will be forced to react in order to remain relevant to major college football.

With that in mind, here’s an interesting insight into how the conferences are viewing this (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette):

Athletic directors Steve Pederson of Pitt, Oliver Luck of West Virginia and Tim Pernetti of Rutgers have their opinion and are leading a push to expand the Big East Conference’s football membership to 12 teams. They believe the league can get a big boost in broadcast rights fees next year, largely because Comcast has bought NBC and actively is searching for college sports programming for the Versus Network, which will become NBC Sports Network.

That means there are more suitors now — and with only one major conference left without a long-term deal — the Big East — that can offer programming, the price has just gone up.

Under the current combined football/basketball TV contract that expires in 2013, Big East football members get $11 million annually, far less than the $20 to $23 million annually the Pac-12, Big Ten and SEC members get from their combined football/basketball deals. ACC members get about $14 million from their combined contract.

Big East commissioner John Marinatto said there were mixed feelings about turning down ESPN’s deal initially — and the divide was pretty much between the so-called basketball members and the football members — but the announcement of the Pac-12’s lucrative deal ($3 billion over 12 years) convinced them all it was the right move.

“The [price of programming] dramatically changed when the Pac-12 announced its deal,” Marinatto said. “And we were unanimous. There was splintering before that, but, on that day, we were unanimous ‘we’re walking away.’ College football has firmly been implanted as the No. 2 most popular sport.

Keep in mind that the commissioners are approaching this as a business. Forget “best fit” and team names; rivalries, traditions, geography, and cultures don’t matter. What matters is whether or not the revenue per school for 14 or 16 teams is greater than it is for 12. If the answer is yes, then you will see expansion, and soon.

About LRM

Charter member of the Lunatic Fringe and a fan, loyal to a fault.

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32 Responses to Friday Afternoon Expansion Talk

  1. LRM 08/12/2011 at 4:57 PM #

    Depending on how re-alignment plays out for the ACC and the new Big East TV contract, the Big East may very well be in a far better situation than the ACC to negotiate a spot at the big boys table in a few years. That’s unnerving.

  2. greywolfsixtyfive 08/12/2011 at 7:11 PM #

    I have absolutely NO interest in adding another northern team with which we share NO natural rivalry. Did we not learn anything by adding BC and Miami, and YES Miami is geographically in the South, but very much Northern (with limited fan base). The ONLY thing that makes a conference viable in the long run (aside from money) is a natural rival. The thought of playing Yoo-Con, Pittt, or Rut-gers makes me want to vomit. Please. If this thing falls apart, I hope we can go to a four division Southeastern Conference.

  3. backnine 08/12/2011 at 7:24 PM #

    I’m not really sure how the ACC got to this point. Seems like a bad dream for such a proud and historic conference. The notion that the Big East could command a better TV contract than the ACC is alarming. If that comes to pass, Swofford should be fired on the spot. If that’s the type of leadership he has provided then we’re all being led by the blind and you can bet individual ACC schools will quietly start plotting moves in their own best interest. Sounds like its already started. Few ACC schools can carry on for the foreseeable future at a $8M – $10M annual starting disadvantage than peers in other conferences and still expect to compete on national levels.

    Sooner or later our braintrust is going to have to get serious about OUR future – not anyone else’s. We may ultimately get no looks and be left to die on the vine but we sure as heck need to ensure we insert ourselves in the conversations. I’m tired of this school deferring its decision making to those with ties in Orange County. We’re two different institutions. Maybe the best thing for us is to stay put. But if that’s the case I want us to arrive at that decision from our own due diligence than from someone else “telling” us that’s what is best for us. Time we grew up.

  4. pack76 08/12/2011 at 7:42 PM #

    Today’s “The Amarillo Globe” states that Texas A & M will be in the SEC and it could possibly be as soon as Aug. 22nd and they could be a full memeber of the SEC in 2012.

  5. MatSci94 08/12/2011 at 8:37 PM #

    “I’m not really sure how the ACC got to this point.”

    The fear at the time (however many years ago it was) as the previous TV contract was expiring, was that the money for this contract would be significantly less per school. DG was reporting this as the case, and since it has to do with business and contracts and not UNC shenanigans, I’m willing to trust his sources. With the new setup, the ACC was able to keep about the same amount per school, even with adding two schools.

    From my limited googling, this was a $13 million per year per school deal. Given that ACC athletic budgets seem to be in the $50 million range, thats a huge chunk of the budget covered even if you sell no tickets.

    The last couple of TV deals seem to be heading up, so I think this is going to get worse before it gets better.

  6. GAWolf 08/12/2011 at 9:01 PM #

    Considering Swofford has publicly jilted Florida State in ridiculous fashion and his history wit Clemson, why would either of those traditional football schools want to stay in his football-be-damned conference. Swofford should be r epkaced now in a show of good faith to these schools that there’s more to the future of the ACC than getting ESPN to blow Duke and Carolina.

  7. Wolfman 9806 08/12/2011 at 9:09 PM #

    I would like to add West Virginia and lose BC. And I know it is a pipe dream, but if we had an opportunity to move to the SEC, we should jump all over it.

  8. Dogbreath 08/12/2011 at 9:38 PM #

    Now is not the time to fire your commission just as the shit is hitting the fan. He should have been fired after the 1st ACC championship game pulled 12,000 fans.

    We are indeed fucked.

  9. timberwolf 08/12/2011 at 9:43 PM #

    GAWolf +1. My thoughts exactly. Why would fsu put up with swofford’s over the top public call outs and conference issued penalties? Esp. Given the absolute crickets over unc fiasco. I would not blamb them one second to jump to SEC. WHY NOT? Other than it’s real damn easier to win conference titles and crap rolls for nation titles. Just sayin…

  10. LRM 08/12/2011 at 10:15 PM #

    “I’m not really sure how the ACC got to this point.”

    Short version: Because 20 years ago when the other power conferences had the foresight to recognize that the big money in the future would be in college football, the ACC halfway responded by adding Florida State, but then hitched its wagon entirely to the Carolina-Duke ESPN basketball machine. Then around 2002, when the ACC was the only league with a basketball package worth more than its football package, and it was painfully obvious that a nine-team basketball league couldn’t survive in the BCS, it tried to shore up its reputation by expanding again, and it never worked out as planned.

    In five years (maybe sooner), you won’t even recognize the ACC we grew up with. And that’s a real shame, because it was great.

  11. MatSci94 08/12/2011 at 10:22 PM #

    “He should have been fired after the 1st ACC championship game pulled 12,000 fans.”

    The entire basis of the expansion was for the TV money. 12 people could have shown up for the game and it would not have changed anything. They could hold the game at Wallace Wade, as long as they can park enough TV trucks around it to do the broadcast.

    Right or wrong, the ACC powers felt that the ability of the league to remain relevant was entirely tied to the TV contract. There was (essentially) no consideration for rivalries, or traditional footprint, or anything else.

  12. rky 08/13/2011 at 12:54 AM #

    “In five years (maybe sooner), you won’t even recognize the ACC we grew up with. And that’s a real shame, because it was great.”

    So (very likely) true . . . and so very sad . . .

  13. Dogbreath 08/13/2011 at 1:49 AM #

    “The entire basis of the expansion was for the TV money. 12 people could have shown up for the game and it would not have changed anything. They could hold the game at Wallace Wade, as long as they can park enough TV trucks around it to do the broadcast.

    Right or wrong, the ACC powers felt that the ability of the league to remain relevant was entirely tied to the TV contract. There was (essentially) no consideration for rivalries, or traditional footprint, or anything else.”

    I was using the tepid attendance figure as evidence that no one gives a shit about our single A football conference, and the weak attempt expansion would soon fold under it’s flimsy weight.

  14. Astral Rain 08/13/2011 at 6:31 AM #

    If FSU bolts, who do you recruit to replace them, assuming no other changes?

    Pitt would be my first choice, followed by W.VA.

  15. albunde6 08/13/2011 at 7:05 AM #

    As the new ACC commissioner I would attack if they go after FSU. You go after Texas, Tenn, UGA, Missouri etc. You make deal with Texas to have bigger piece of football pie, with equal share of all other sports. Texas has two coaches with ACC ties, make one of them ACC commissioner, I retire and become ambassador for the ACC.

  16. Packfan28 08/13/2011 at 7:35 AM #

    I know I will be publicly flogged for this, but if FSU moves out, I would like to see ECU added to the ACC in their place. There, I said it.

  17. Dogbreath 08/13/2011 at 8:06 AM #

    Northern Division:
    Boston College
    Connecticut
    Duke
    Maryland
    Penn State
    Pittsburgh
    Syracuse

    Southern Division:
    Ga Tech
    North Carolina
    NC State
    Virginia
    Virginia Tech
    Wake Forest
    West Virginia

  18. Gene 08/13/2011 at 9:17 AM #

    “I’m not really sure how the ACC got to this point.”

    When some “genius” in the NCAA front office decided a 12 team conference could have its own football championship game and split itself into two six team divisions, every conference without twelve teams and the added T.V. money of a football conference championship game, was scrambling to reinvent itself.

    If the NCAA said you couldn’t ever have a football conference championship game or decided you could have one, even if you had fewer than 12 teams in the conference, this sort of raiding wouldn’t be what it is.

    Also, the demise of the SWC 20 years ago and merger of its remnants with the Big 8, to form the Big 12, had something to do with the conference realignment we are seeing today.

    The SWC conference, along with the Big 10, Big 8 and PAC 10, were the premier football conferences in America. To have one of them just go under, really changed the dynamics of college athletics.

  19. 808WOLF 08/13/2011 at 10:42 AM #

    screw leaders and legends….

    Catholics:
    Boston College
    Connecticut
    Duke
    Maryland
    Penn State
    Pittsburgh
    Syracuse

    Convicts:
    Ga Tech
    North Carolina
    NC State
    Virginia
    Virginia Tech
    Wake Forest
    West Virginia

  20. Wolfy__79 08/13/2011 at 11:18 AM #

    i hope ALL of the newer teams leave the ACC. i didn’t like expansion when it happened and my vote is to return it to the way it was! the ACC, what is and always should be, a basketball conference first has been diluted by the most recent additions! i don’t care about tv money nor will i ever. the only new team that is worth two sheets is va tech.. the rest of them… can take a hike. please sec, take fsu off of our hands.

    as far as NCSU is concerned, i would be livid if the powers that be decided to go to the SEC! we would more than likely get smoked in football and continue to struggle in basketball in the new environment! ludicrous suggestion/idea/whatever we want to call it!

  21. Wolfy__79 08/13/2011 at 11:25 AM #

    If FSU bolts, who do you recruit to replace them, assuming no other changes?

    Pitt would be my first choice, followed by W.VA.””

    they wouldn’t be bad additions.. if fsu left, i would be hoping that bc would be soon after! if bc stays, who knows.. we may see the likes of rutgers being recruited in the league to give bc some area competition.

    if we had to add teams, i certainly hope schools with pull are considered and not schools like ucf or ecu. what about schools like georgia or penn st?

  22. whitefang 08/13/2011 at 11:30 AM #

    ECU may be a sentimental choice for some, or more likely a NC legislative choice, but they do not make the ACC stronger. Rather they make it weaker. They add no TV market.
    This is about money. TV money. Hell we are worried about State being attractive enough should the ACC dissolve and we are a lot more attractive than ECU when it comes to money.
    I only hope we are being proactive behind the scenes. The ACC under Swofford has become weaker. Right now the ACC needs State more than State needs the ACC – IF we can make a deal somewhere else. We better not be sitting on our hands. We better be developing options.
    Wolfy you better wake up. There won’t be an ACC. It will be absorbed by the Southern Conference from whence it came if the “new” teams leave. If the “new” teams leave Clemson and Maryland are as good as gone too so it will consist of State, UNC (they would be gone too, but they have no leadership currently), Virginia, Wake, and Duke. We’ll be playing App State in a home and away series. MY GOD!

  23. Dogbreath 08/13/2011 at 11:37 AM #

    I see NC State offering the same appeal to the SEC as South Carolina did 12-15 years ago, should they desire to extend into North Carolina: largest university in the state, capital city, strong media market, decent football program, lots of unrealized potential.

    I think the SEC is looking more westward however.

  24. whitefang 08/13/2011 at 11:46 AM #

    Dog I agree. But if/when this happens I could see us, if we are playing our cards right, getting a serious look from the SEC for all the reasons you named even if one or two of their first choices were west. NC is an important TV market. I believe the SEC would see us OR UNC as a big market addition. With UNC currently rudderless now is the time to be working our deal. This is ALL about football. Basketball is meaningless in this discussion I believe.
    I hope we are working this

  25. Dogbreath 08/13/2011 at 11:51 AM #

    My Clemson friends are reporting it’s official…Clemson, fsu, Missouri, and Texas A&M.

    We are done.

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