Sat Open FBall Entry; 2010 ACC AET Week 9 [Updated 10/29]

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Due to the Thursday night game and some schools who wait until Thursday to release their Depth Chart (Yes, I’m looking at you Wake Forest), I’m having to put this out early and incomplete.  I’ll update on Friday to include the Saturday games.

2010 ACC AET Index (10/30)
 

Team

 Class Size

Jr/Sr %

 Returning

Starters %

 Returning

Lettermen %

 Depth Chart

Jr/Sr %

 Talent

Points

 AVG

Rank
Miami 41 (2) 64 (5) 72 (4) 62 (2) 152 (1) 2.8
UNC 45 (1) 68 (2) 70 (5) 53 (6) 127 (4) 3.6
Clemson 40 (4) 59 (7) 70 (5) 52 (8) 145 (2) 5.2
GT 31 (11) 64 (5) 76 (1) 60 (4) 114 (7) 5.6
Duke 34 (9) 68 (2) 73 (3) 54 (5) 110 (8) 5.4
FSU 36 (7) 73 (1) 69 (7) 40 (12) 138 (3) 6.0
Virginia 41 (2) 55 (9) 68 (9) 68 (1) 101 (12) 6.6
NCSU 38 (5) 55 (9) 59 (12) 62 (2) 121 (5) 6.6
BC 38 (5) 68 (2) 67 (10) 49 (9) 109 (9) 7.0
Maryland 33 (10) 55 (9) 76 (1) 46 (11) 109 (9) 8.0
Wake 35 (8) 59 (7) 69 (8) 53 (6) 105 (11) 8.0
VT 30 (12) 55 (9) 64 (11) 49 (9) 121 (5) 9.2
ACC Avg 36.8 61.9 69.4 54.0 121.0 6.17

 

2010 ACC AET Index (10/30) revised
 

Team

 Class Size

Jr/Sr %

 Returning

Starters %

 Returning

Lettermen %

 Depth Chart

Jr/Sr %

 Talent

Points %

 AVG

Rank
Miami 41 64 72 62 69.1 61.6
UNC 45 68 70 53 57.7 58.7
Clemson 40 59 70 52 65.9 57.4
GT 31 64 76 60 51.8 56.6
FSU 36 73 69 40 62.7 56.1
Duke 34 68 73 54 50.0 55.8
Virginia 41 55 68 68 45.9 55.6
BC 38 68 67 49 49.5 54.3
NCSU 38 55 59 62 55.0 53.8
Wake 35 59 69 53 47.7 52.7
Maryland 33 55 76 46 49.5 51.9
VT 30 55 64 49 55.0 50.6
ACC Avg 36.8 61.9 69.4 54.0 55.0 55.4

 

 

Game 1: Florida State at NC State (Thursday 7:30 ESPN)

Look at the 2010 ACC AET Index  to see each school’s Index Number and how it was achieved. I will be using updated weekly numbers to reflect the current week’s Depth Charts.

  • FSU = 6.0
  • NC State = 6.6

Referring back to the 2006-2009 AET Index you’ll see that the Home Field Advantage (HFA) factor is -1.6, which was developed using 2006-2008 data. Including 2009 data the HFA factor is -1.5. So we subtract 1.5 from NC State who is the Home team and we get:

  • FSU = 6.0
  • NC State = 5.1

NC State becomes the favorite to win this matchup with a 0.9 advantage.

Now looking back at how coaches fare as Favorites and Underdogs, 2006-2009 ACC AET Index, (plus 2010 game results to this point) we see the following:

  • Fisher is (2-0) as the Underdog on the road. (games against Miami and UVA)
  • O’Brien is (4-4) as the Favorite at home.

NOTE:  I think I’ve found a better way at comparing the teams.  Instead of assigning a rank from 1-12 to each of the teams based on what they have for each category I’ve decided that in order to more accurately reflect the separation between each team (in each category) I should eliminate the rankings and use their percentages.  The problem I had before was what to do with the Talent Points category.  I’ve decided to convert it to a percentage by taking the team’s talent points and dividing it by 220 (the maximum point total if a team’s depth chart consisted of all 5 star players).  I believe this will work out better from what I’ve seen so far.  For example, if Team A = 60%, Team B = 50%, and Team C = 49%, then under the current method they would have received rankings of Team A=1, Team B=2, and Team C=3.  This isn’t a very good method considering Team A is a full 10% more than Team B yet only has a separation of 1.  I’ll provide more details at the end of the season during my year in review but for now I’m going to start adding the newer method/records with the current method for the rest of the season for comparison purposes.

New AET Index Numbers: (Now the favorite is the team with the higher number)

  • FSU = 56.1
  • NC State = 53.8

HFA Factor: (calculated to 3.1)

  • FSU = 56.1
  • NC State = 56.9

NC State again becomes the favorite with a slim 0.8 advantage.  Revised coaching records show:

  • Fisher is (2-0) as the Underdog on the road. (games against Miami and UVA)
  • O’Brien is (3-4) as the Favorite at home.

What do I think?

I think Florida State COULD be a dangerous team.  They built this season’s reputation on blowing out crap teams (Wake Forest & Virginia) before facing a talented but poorly coached Miami team.  Then they struggled against a below average Boston College.  FSU is dangerous because they have just as potent an offense as NC State but now are getting over 200 yards a game on the ground, they aren’t having to rely completely on Ponder.  That takes away NC State defense’s ability to key in on one facet of the game.  I think State will score enough points on offense to win the game, the question comes back to (like it has for 3 years now) will the defense slow down the opposing team enough to get the win.  I’m also concerned about NC State’s special teams.  All of the hidden yardage we give up on kickoffs and punts, add in missed FG’s from inside the 30 yard line, and you have a recipe for disaster in a close game. 

I don’t think NC State needs to play a perfect game to beat FSU, we just can’t afford to play poorly in any one of the 3 areas.  Defense is going to need to slow down FSU’s running game and at the same time not give up the big passes.  The 2 things I’m going to keep track of for both teams are 3rd down conversions, especially on 3rd and long, plus Red Zone Scoring.  NC State has been particularly awful this year on scoring Touchdowns once inside the 20. 

As for the outcome, I’m going with the AET Index and picking NC State winning a close one, thanks in part to what should be an electric and hostile atmosphere in Carter-Finley. 

Vegas Odds: (as of Wednesday)

FSU at NC State:  FSU -4

What do you think?

[UPDATED]

What can I say?  That was one HELL of a game.

3rd Down Eff:

  • FSU = 8/14  (57%)
  • NC State = 12/18  (67%)

Definitely needed to do better on 3rd down defense but hey, I’ll take whatever we get as long as it results in a Win.

Red Zone:

  • FSU = 4/5 (3TD/1FG)
  • NC State = 4/5 (4TD/0FG)

Russell’s INT was the lone time we didn’t score in the Red Zone but was a huge improvement over what we’ve seen this season.

SATURDAY’S GAMES

Game 2: Clemson at Boston College (12:00 Raycom)

Updated AET Index Numbers:

  • Clemson = 5.2
  • Boston College = 7.0

HFA Factor:

  • Clemson = 5.2
  • Boston College = 5.5

Clemson remains the favorite to win this matchup with a 0.3 advantage.

  • Swinney is (3-2) as the Favorite on the road.
  • Spaziani is (0-1) as the Underdog at home.

New AET Index Numbers:

  • Clemson = 57.4
  • Boston College = 54.3

HFA Factor:

  • Clemson = 57.4
  • Boston College = 57.4

It’s now a toss-up.

 

Game 3: Miami at Virginia (12:00 ESPN)

Updated AET Index Numbers (new index number):

  • Miami = 2.8  (61.6)
  • Virginia = 6.6 (55.6)

HFA Factor:

  • Miami = 2.8 (61.6)
  • Virginia = 5.1 (58.7)

Miami is still the favorite to win this matchup with a 2.3 (2.9) advantage.

  • Shannon is (4-6) as the Favorite on the road. (6-6)
  • London is (0-1) as the Underdog at home. (0-1)

 

Game 4: Wake Forest at Maryland (3:30 ESPNU)

Updated AET Index Numbers:

  • Wake Forest = 8.0 (52.7)
  • Maryland = 8.0 (51.9)

HFA Factor:

  • Wake Forest = 8.0 (52.7)
  • Maryland = 6.5 (55.0)

Maryland goes from a toss up to the favorite to win this matchup with a 1.5 (2.3) advantage.

  • Grobe is (6-10) as the Underdog on the road. (4-10)
  • Friedgen is (7-5) as the Favorite at home. (7-4)

 

Vegas Odds: (as of Friday 12:00 pm)

  1. Clemson at Boston College:  Clemson -7
  2. Miami at Virginia:  Miami -14.5
  3. Wake Forest at Maryland: Maryland -5.5

 

What do I think?

  1. This game will have the most impact towards NC State.  With Clemson at 2-2 in the conference a win will keep them in the race with games against NC State and FSU remaining.  A loss will all but eliminate them.  I think if Swinney removes his head out of his butt and hands the ball off to Ellington at least 25 times then Clemson should have no problems against BC.
  2. Even the schizophrenic Miami Hurricanes shouldn’t have any problems with Virginia where most fans will be dressed like bleachers.
  3. Outside of FSU/NC State, I think this is the most compelling matchup in the ACC this weekend.  Notice I didn’t say it was going to be pretty, by either side.  Wake Forest is just in over its head this year.  Maryland on the other hand has stuffed itself full of cupcakes to get to 5-2.  Beating Navy, Morgan State, FIU, and Duke isn’t exactly saying much.  I do think that last weeks win at Boston College was a big win for them.  I’m going with the AET Index and saying Maryland wins and covers the spread.

What do you think?

 

About 1.21 Jigawatts

Class of '98, Mechanical Engineer, State fan since arriving on campus and it's been a painful ride ever since. I live by the Law of NC State Fandom, "For every Elation there is an equal and opposite Frustration."

College Football

33 Responses to Sat Open FBall Entry; 2010 ACC AET Week 9 [Updated 10/29]

  1. NCSUPackfan 10/27/2010 at 11:37 PM #

    I want to believe in my heart that we can put a full game together and get a win. I will be in Tallahassee pulling for the Pack!! I wish they would give those towels out tomorrow night. The crowd has to be the best ever for us to have the advantage.

  2. 61Packer 10/27/2010 at 11:39 PM #

    Fisher was an underdog on the road at UVA? Huh?

  3. El Lobo Loco! 10/28/2010 at 4:00 AM #

    After the magic of 1998 I look forward to these games year after year. This time should be no different.
    GO WOLFPACK!!

  4. 1.21 Jigawatts 10/28/2010 at 6:26 AM #

    61Packer,

    FSU was an underdog because they had an AET Index number of 6.0 that week and played at UVA who’s Index number was 6.2. You subtract the HFA and you get FSU as the underdog on the road. It’s one of those things where the eyeball test overrules the AET Index. No way anyone would have picked UVA over FSU that game. Same as no one would have picked Duke over VT last week, even though Duke had the better Index number.

    I’ve thought of a couple of ways this week to improve how I quantify the Age and Experience factors that would more accurately reflect reality instead of taking a broad view. It’s just going to take a while to see if I can use this new idea and incorporate or replace with what I currently have. It’ll take time so I wouldn’t expect any changes to the AET Index this year.

    In the end remember that, as it currently stands, the AET Index is better suited to look at how well a coach is doing with what he currently has. I’m still working on improving it as a predictor.

  5. WolftownVA81 10/28/2010 at 7:39 AM #

    I’ll be wearing my red watching on the road in Atlanta. Strike early, strike hard and don’t let up. Go Pack.

  6. Scooter 10/28/2010 at 8:32 AM #

    I think FSU is more talented in all three phases of the game, but NC we’ve got grit. Having the home fans behind the team can’t be understated in a matchup as close as this one. This game will come down to whether or not our defense can frustrate the FSU offense.

  7. wvillepack 10/28/2010 at 9:54 AM #

    Stop the run. Pressure Ponder. Win the game!

  8. VaWolf82 10/30/2010 at 12:41 PM #

    UVA scores first against Miami. Hoos lead 7-0

  9. wirogers 10/30/2010 at 1:00 PM #

    ok, if you are bored with F-Ball today, there is a great (I mean GREAT) basketball game on ESPN Classic. They are showing the 1983 National Basketball game!!!!!

  10. Pack78 10/30/2010 at 1:08 PM #

    BC is leading Clemmons 13-10 and driving again w~3 min. to go in the first half. Clemmons TD came on a pick-six-Go Eagles!

  11. El Lobo Loco! 10/30/2010 at 2:00 PM #

    Miami trailing 17-o to the cavs and BC trading blows with clemson….
    interesting day!

  12. GAWolf 10/30/2010 at 2:15 PM #

    That 83 song and clips of the tournament highlights show me that the true glory days of college basketball are beind us….us as in all of us…as in society in general. The early 80’s… even UNC’s two championships included… were back when college basketball was actually “cool.” We’ll never see that sort of “special” again in college hoops.

  13. StateFans 10/30/2010 at 2:25 PM #

    It is not easy for me to be pulling for BC over Clemson…but, it is too important for the Wolfpack not to be.

  14. Sweet jumper 10/30/2010 at 2:40 PM #

    BC 16 Clempson 10 1:42 left BC just intercepted.

  15. Sweet jumper 10/30/2010 at 2:42 PM #

    UVA 24 U of M 6 6:29 left

  16. Sweet jumper 10/30/2010 at 2:44 PM #

    I forgot to say, Go Bill and Mary!!! I hope Mike Paulous has a career day against his former team.

  17. Sweet jumper 10/30/2010 at 2:47 PM #

    43 seconds left, Clemmon U has the ball on their own 14 yard line.

  18. Sweet jumper 10/30/2010 at 2:51 PM #

    Clempson lost 16-10

  19. Sweet jumper 10/30/2010 at 2:54 PM #

    U of M making incredible comeback. Now UVA 24 U of M 19 4:39 left.

  20. El Lobo Loco! 10/30/2010 at 3:05 PM #

    UofM is a way better team, they are in their 4th string QB I think?
    And the posts come down in Charlotesville!

    BC takes the W from Clemson…

  21. Sweet jumper 10/30/2010 at 3:05 PM #

    UVA won. VA Tech gets help.

  22. El Lobo Loco! 10/30/2010 at 3:09 PM #

    What to watch now, Iowa or Nebraska?

    PS go guillo y maria!

  23. coach13 10/30/2010 at 3:21 PM #

    What in the heck! Clemson loses to BC??? Really? Miami loses to Virginia????? Randy Shannon is fired. He can start packin. He is toast.
    Sweeney will not last long if he keeps this pace either, though I hope they do struggle onemore game before picking it up. Looks like its us or FSU vs VT in Charlotte.

    I know what happens in one game does not equate what happens in another but if Clemson is losing to BC, we should handle Clemson. What’s that called, transitive properties? A>B , B>C so A>C.

  24. wirogers 10/30/2010 at 3:39 PM #

    Touchdown, Bill and MAry!!!!!! GO TRIBE!!!!!

  25. gcpack 10/30/2010 at 4:34 PM #

    I’m at kenan now watching Mary&William pass the ball all over the Holes. My dad is a unc grad & its all I can do to keep my mouth shut when w&m scores. Tribe scores late in the half plus gets a 2 pt conversion. Then the Holes fumble the kick off . Quietly loving the cheaters taking it from the tribe.:) 17-7 tribe at half!!.

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