Now or Never for TOB

A rampant problem in sports journalism is oversimplification. Despite that acknowledgement, I’m going to keep this very, very simple:

This is Tom O’Brien’s “shit or get off the pot” moment.

No, I’m not saying that he should be fired if he loses to Florida State. Nor am I saying this season will become a disaster. But our pursuit of the Atlantic Division title (in a year with no really good teams) would end before November. And I believe we absolutely must be in the hunt down to the wire this season, if we are to be a contender at any point during the O’Brien era. Again, to put it in very simple terms:

Tom O’Brien came to NC State to cap off his career with a championship.

That’s it. Yeah, going to bowl games is all well and good. But he’s done that already. State fans love making Peach Bowl trips. But we’ve certainly done it many times before, under multiple head coaches. The title drought is the key, and where NC State and Tom O’Brien signed up to get that mutual monkey off their back.

Tonight is also a perfect storm of factors working in our favor. The game will be the only one on TV (yeah, there’s baseball…but it’s BASEBALL), and ESPN’s very pro-NC State Thursday night crew is good about highlighting the host university. Get a signature win for the program, with a rowdy capacity crowd on hand, and the publicity will be glowing. State should be focused after the embarrassing loss in Greenville (despite being highly embarrassing, it did nothing to keep the team from reaching any program goals). Florida State is known to have lapses in focus and preparation. Their QB (who I don’t think highly of even at 100%) will be playing hurt.

Put it simply, we have to take advantage of the opportunity presented and show that NC State football should be taken seriously. Lose, and there’s no intellectually honest way to refute the naysayers. They will have been right all along.

The Pack still has no better than a 40% shot to win the Atlantic, even with a win tonight. And the ACC title game will likely be a coin flip (even with a significant home crowd advantage in Charlotte). But being in the hunt in November, and earning a significant bowl bid give O’Brien another couple of shots at it with Mike Glennon. And the team will believe him when he tells them how close they are.

If we lose tonight, go ahead and start preparing the “gold watch” ceremony. It will be a matter of when, not if – and no moment of greater glory will precede it.

There will be Live Bloggage tonight. I had minor foot surgery yesterday, so it may be drug addled and less prolific than usual. But I will be there. We all should, in one way or another. This is our defining moment.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

'10 Football Tom O'Brien

26 Responses to Now or Never for TOB

  1. jbpackfan 10/28/2010 at 10:15 AM #

    Eliminate the INTs and I think we win. Should be an entertaining game!

  2. packof81 10/28/2010 at 10:21 AM #

    I sure hope the defense shows up tonight.

  3. Chucks Chesticles 10/28/2010 at 10:26 AM #

    We have no excuse tonight. If our team wants respect we HAVE to win tonight. Too many of these “defining” games in our recent history have slipped through our fingers.

  4. bradleyb123 10/28/2010 at 10:47 AM #

    I disagree a little with the premise of this article. Sure, a win would be what you say — a defining moment for TOB and NC State football. But win or lose, what we do the rest of the season speaks even more loudly. We could win this game, then lose three of the last four, and what will this win have gotten us?

    This was not supposed to be a great year for State football. I think we’ve already exceeded expectations. Most had us winning around 5-6 games. We can still have a bad finish and fulfill the dismal predictions. I think (hope) that we don’t. I think our team is better than that and won’t let that happen.

    But I don’t think a loss tonight results in a gold watch for TOB. If we still finish strong, get recruiting on track, and continue building, TOB will be fine. Like I said, what he does in the last four games is really more important than tonight’s game.

    I’m by no means setting myself up with an excuse for when we lose. I think we can win. Hopefully we will. I’m just talking about tonight’s outcome and it’s bearing on TOB’s future at NC State.

  5. GAWolf 10/28/2010 at 10:55 AM #

    We need this football game more than any in recent memory, there’s no doubt about that.

  6. Mike 10/28/2010 at 11:06 AM #

    It is quite simple – we still hold our own destiny. Win tonight, and win out, we win our division in the conference for the rematch with VT (or Miami but VT should handle the Canes). Lose tonight, and we need help (a lot of help) to get the division title.

  7. bradleyb123 10/28/2010 at 11:10 AM #

    Absolutely we need this game. Win this and we’re still in the driver’s seat for winning the division. I don’t think we’ve been in this position, this late in the season, since we expanded to 12 teams. Every game on our schedule is winnable, although none of them will be easy wins (except maybe Wake and/or Maryland, but there’s no such thing as an easy conference win for State… ECU was supposed to be an easy win!)

    I’m actually more afraid of FSU’s running game than Ponder. I feel like our defense will strike some fear into Ponder’s heart. But can we stop their running attack?

    But man, what a win this would be. It’s been a while since we’ve had a win of the magnitude that this one would be.

  8. Classof89 10/28/2010 at 11:10 AM #

    I agree that TOB needs to take it to the next level, and tonight would give him his best opportunity yet.

    Think I agree with BJD that our program is in danger of lapsing into another (slightly better than) Mike O’ Cain era of 7-5 and 6-6 seasons interspersed with the occasional 8-4 or 5-7 if TOB can’t get that signature win he’s been chasing for three years. Like MOC, TOB hasn’t really been recruiting elite talent here, and relies on outcoaching the opponent in order to win, a formula that doesn’t work when you play a team that is stacked AND well-coached.

  9. bradleyb123 10/28/2010 at 11:11 AM #

    Mike, we’d pretty much need for FSU to lose their last three conference games for us to win the division after a loss tonight. Which means, we’re effectively out of the running before November if we lose.

  10. Hungwolf 10/28/2010 at 11:12 AM #

    My biggest concern is recruiting right now. Really like to see a win tonight in hopes it lights a fire in our recruiting! If recruiting doesn’t improve, we can count on not being in any ACC Championships in the near future either.

  11. Wolfpack_1995 10/28/2010 at 11:14 AM #

    HEED THIS:

    Be prepared for a plethora TOB defenders to come out of the woodwork if we lose this game. It will be Sendek Part II all over again in football.

    My only hope if we did lose is that Yow does turn up the heat on TOB’s seat. Otherwise we are no further along than when Fowler was here.

    Much of the same can also be said about Lowe and the b-ball program. If we suck out this year or prevail in mediocrity then the same heat should be turned up on Sid and Co. that their days are numbered.

    GO YOW!

    TONIGHT IS A “CHANGE the STATUS QUO” GAME!

  12. Wulfpack 10/28/2010 at 11:38 AM #

    Excellent post. Very well said. Of course, the remainder of the season is very important. But bottom line – lose tonight and we’re going nowhere of significance. Win and we have all the opportunity in the world. You cannot lose this kind of game if you want to be taken seriously.

  13. StateFans 10/28/2010 at 11:55 AM #

    The odds will definitely be stacked very much against a ‘break out’ this season if we lose this game. (But, if we managed to win the remaining games we end up 9-3 with a good shot at the or Chik-Fil-A Bowl or Sun Bowl. That is still a ‘break out’)

    I am just a tad more optimistic than BJD. I do not think that we never ‘breakout’ with TOB if we don’t do it this year. I fully understand the position…but, I still think we have future opportunities for a breakout.

    Go back to the beginning of this year — did you ever imagine that we would actually be having this conversation during this year? Of course not.

  14. ChemE79a 10/28/2010 at 11:57 AM #

    The thing about judging the size of this game is that the win/lose consequences tonight are very asymetrical. Thus the size of the game depends on which side you focus on.

    If we win it is huge – we will be in the drivers seat to win our division and play in the championship game for the first time ever. Win that and we end the 30 year streak of no conference titles and play in a BCS game. Bottom line is if we win we have a chance for a historic season.

    On the other hand if we lose the consequences (other than lost opportunity) are not that huge. If we play well in the rest of the games we will have a good shot at a 6-2 (9-3) or a 5-3 (8-4) regular season record. Very few of us would have not been satisfied with those numbers at the beginning of the season and they would both leave us in position for a pretty good bowl and momentum going into recruiting. So the bottom line is the consequences of losing are not that dire.

    Overall bottom line: If we win (particularly if we continue to play well in the rest of our games) this game may be the biggest ever at Carter-Finley. If we lose (particularly if we play well in the rest of our games) then the game is not that significant.

  15. tractor57 10/28/2010 at 12:03 PM #

    I’m not one for the “now or never” thinking but if there ever is one for TOB this is it. An opportunity to put on the field what has has promised from day 1. I agree it isn’t a win or you are fired game but I see this game as a significant pivot point.

  16. bradleyb123 10/28/2010 at 12:59 PM #

    Be prepared for a plethora TOB defenders to come out of the woodwork if we lose this game. It will be Sendek Part II all over again in football.

    If there are TOB defenders, that implies that people are attacking and TOB is in need of defense.

    I’m more concerned with recruiting than this one game. But don’t get me wrong, I want this win as much as any football game I can remember. This would be a HUGE win for State. But more importantly, it would keep momentum going in a good season that can only help our recruiting.

    If we dump TOB, it won’t be for losing this game. It will be for losing too many games and killing his recruiting.

  17. tjfoose1 10/28/2010 at 1:32 PM #

    Don’t see it as “Now or Never” or “Make or Break”… It’s just another in a long line of big opportunity games for the Wolfpack. A line going back 30 years, that unfortunately, is usually missed.

    FSU is the better team. FSU has far more talent. They offer no matchups to which we have an obvious advantage to exploit. FSU should win this game.

    That said, I of course hope we win, and think we have a good chance to do it. To do so will require our best game of the season as well as FSU having an off game. I hear their players are coming in over confident… that, combined with TOB’s history of coming off BYE weeks, gives me hope that we have a good shot to win. The keys will be their running game against our defense, and our OL handling the pressure from their front four.

    Back to the “Now or never” aspect… this is a HUGE opportunity, not live/die situation. A victory would be great for this team and the Wolfpack program for all the obvious reasons (exposure, recruiting, Atlantic standing, etc), a HUGE advancement… but a loss is not necessarily a huge blow.

    Or to put succinctly: win, we advance, lose, we don’t lose ground.

    I expect a loss, but am hoping for a win. Minimums from this game I want to see is a reasonable and logical game plan from the coaches, for Russell and the Wolfpack to execute that game plan and play well, shore up the issues we’ve seen in the past few games (discussed in the forums), and stay healthy. Come out 5-3 well positioned to finish the season 9-3 or 8-4.

    Though 3 of the 4 remaining games are on the road, taken individually, I would expect a Wolfpack victory in each game. Each team has a weakness that can be exploited by the current Wolfpack team. This Wolfpack ‘should’ be able to beat each of our remaining opponents. Therefore, IMO, a 3-1 mark in our final 4 games is a very reasonable expectation.

    I don’t consider myself a “TOB defender”, but if pointing out the realities make me so, then so be it.

  18. Beagle Pack 10/28/2010 at 1:43 PM #

    7 wins or more this year, I’m still with O’brien.

    6 wins with that final win over Carolina again, I’m still with him.

    Anything less and I’ll be ready to see who Yow can bring in.

  19. tjfoose1 10/28/2010 at 1:45 PM #

    “Or to put succinctly: win, we advance, lose, we don’t lose ground.”

    I want to qualify that statement.

    I do NOT mean the ‘Status Quo’ is acceptable, or that I don’t expect improvement. I am simply analyzing the current state of our football program.

    2010 was to be a transition year. From the losing teams of the recent past, to the winning program TOB was hired to establish. Most of us considered 7-5 our ceiling this year. Some mentioned during the season that TOB should be ACC COY if he was able to get this team to 8-4.

    We are ahead of schedule in the W/L columns, but due to the sub par years of some of our 2010 opponents, we are probably right on schedule as to the quality of our team.

    We’ve made some splashes this year, gotten a little national attention and made some highlights. Enjoy it.

    Individual players have made huge advances in their development, our freshman and sophomore dominated secondary has added size, speed, and athletic ability while the overall unit has improved its performance. Our OL has stagnated as of late, but is also dominated by freshmen and sophomores. We have two freshman rotating at RB, we have Glennon on the sidelines. Though we lose some at the end of the season, we have WR’s and DL’s stocked for next year…

    Almost all of us here expected 2010 to be that transition year, NOT the breakout year. Keep perspective, realize where we are in development, and where we appear to be headed. If the ‘Pack loses, try to be fans, not bashers.

    If this was 2011, I’d be on board with you BJD. I think you are a year off.

  20. 61Packer 10/28/2010 at 2:26 PM #

    Tonight’s game will be the indicator as to whether or not we’re a contender for the ACC title. I don’t think TOB is gone if we don’t get to Charlotte in December.

    I believe the real SOGOTP moment for TOB will come November 20 and November 27. If the Wolfpack goes in the crapper then, the coach will likely get an early Christmas vacation and we’ll soon find out just how good an AD Dr. Yow really is.

  21. travelwolf 10/28/2010 at 2:52 PM #

    I agree with tjfoose1 – we really don’t have much of an advantage and it’s a little overboard to be extremely disappointed if the pack doesn’t beat the leader of our division. If we don’t win, it’s not that bad. If we do win, it’s GREAT! Now, if we don’t win 3 of the next 5 games, that’s a different story. I believe we have a good chance at doing that.

    One note is that this game could have a big effect on recruiting – which then effects the results for the next few years. My theory is that we’ve been slow on recruiting b/c TOB is expecting us to have a good year.

  22. smile102 10/28/2010 at 3:12 PM #

    Best win is USF at a Sagarin #56, so beyond win/loss record, this is the first (or next) test by a good team, FSU #12, other than VT 31. We don’t know how good this team is because of the weak opponents. Losing to a 12 is no shame and shouldn’t be a call for a new coach, but a win would be sweet and meaningful.

  23. bradleyb123 10/28/2010 at 3:51 PM #

    Here’s why this game (I think) is so important. Like an older SFN blog discussed, we have had moments where we had a chance to put some separation between us and the Heels in football. And we ended up changing coaches, and went back downhill. The most recent was during the Rivers years.

    With everything that’s going on in Chapel Hill, there’s a good chance they’re about to go into the crapper for a few years. If we can build a really solid, dominant-on-most-weeks kind of program, we can become the program to beat in this state. The last thing we need is a coaching change to go along with the one that is most likely about to happen in Chapel Hill. Most coaching changes are accompanied by a rebuilding period (unless we pull a coup like getting Bill Cowher or something).

    We need to continue building, not start rebuilding. That’s why this game is so important. Frankly, it’s maybe the most important game we’ve faced in years, if not a decade or two. We stand to gain SO MUCH by winning tonight. If we keep rolling, while UNX is really tanking due to sanctions and coaching changes, we can FINALLY put some real distance between us and the Holes. We’ve been just barely ahead of them for the most part over the last decade. It’s time to pull away, not go in the tank WITH them and stay close to even.

    Win this game, and most of the rest, and we might just end up in the Orange Bowl. What better time to do that than the same year UNX gets a ruling of LOIC? Once we get them off our heels (pun intended), then we can work toward even bigger and better things.

    I can’t remember the last time we were in a game of this magnitude. Which is why I’m so nervous about it. We usually lay an egg when this kind of pressure is on.

  24. Hungwolf 10/28/2010 at 4:15 PM #

    I agree that this one game does not make or break TOB or our season. We can lose this game and still have a very good season and keep building. I am hoping for a win of course, but no guarantees in football. We already at 5-2, 2-1 and Chick-Fil-A bowl people be at the game. That is already an improvement over recent years. We need to continue the upward trend, no doubt a win tonight greatly helps. Keep in mind, I think we have only one season in the last decade above .500 in conference play. A winning conference record is the first milestone to me. Clemson, Wake, Maryland, & UNC all offer winnable games and a good chance to reach a winning conference record this year.

  25. OldWuf 10/29/2010 at 12:02 AM #

    Huge Win! CF was rocking. We beat a good team with a tradition. Our players(and coaches) behaved in a manner we can be proud of. Contrast that to FSU unsportsmanlike calls and the frequent face shots of Mark Stoops. You can’t buy that kind of positive exposure.

Leave a Reply