I’m not even going to bother with any hyperlinks – all over the front page of our humble blog, or pretty much any sports site in the state – you will find copious amounts of material regarding UNC’s highly embarrassing football scandals. Where it ends, nobody knows for sure – but every sane person agrees that Tarheel football has taken a huge hit.
But rather than taking pressure off the program 25 miles east of Chapel Hill, I would argue that the stakes just got even higher for Tom O’Brien. In his 4th year at the helm, the Wolfpack has yet to find its footing. And all the momentum going into 2010 was clearly on UNC’s side (despite TOB’s perfect 3-0 record against Butch Davis). Better recruiting, ESPN televising their spring game, pre-season hype and expectations. State fans were left to seethe in their broth of mediocrity.
Then the bomb dropped. Then another. Then a whole cluster of them. UNC football is making headlines for all the wrong reasons, and on the precipice of a likely beatdown at the hands of SEC also-ran LSU. Suddenly, NC State has a window of opportunity to seize the initiative and become the “program on the rise” again. But it’s only an opportunity. As much as we like our schadenfreude in Wolfpack blogistan – it doesn’t make NC State’s own futility any less maddening.
Historically, these windows of opportunity haven’t stayed open long. And you don’t vault to the forefront just by showing up. NC State had a great chance to put its basketball program back in the national consciousness, as Matt Doherty systematically imploded. But despite a good stretch of head-to-head wins against said hapless Vanilla Ice look-alike, NC State basketball stayed in B-minus limbo. Soon enough, Roy Williams was in Chapel Hill – and soon after that, he was cutting down the nets. Herb Sendek headed off for Tempe, and the Wolfpack continued its two decade long (and counting!) sojourn through the basketball desert. Having a real opportunity and missing it only compounded the agony.
Wolfpack fans will feel that pain and regret again, unless Tom O’Brien has a breakthrough 2010 season. UNC football is a punchline. Wake Forest is preparing for a down year (or years). Duke is…well, DUKE. Meanwhile, Tom O’Brien goes into battle with the one thing you need most – a superstar QB. While more would be better, 7-5 is the absolute minimum record needed to put NC State football on the map. That level of success gets you a decent bowl bid. It gets you good press. It gives you something to sell recruits (including those who had pledged to the Tarheels but now have to be weighing their options) other than the empty promises that every coach in America can make (which aren’t very credible after four subpar seasons in a row). It also makes the UNC job much less attractive for hypothetical candidates to clean up Butch Davis’ mess.
Don’t wring your hands about the schedule. It’s still the f-ing ACC, folks. And none of the Wolfpack’s OOC opponents are ranked. If you can’t manage a 7-win season under those circumstances by your 4th year on the job, it’s on YOU. And while I respect Tom O’Brien’s career and still think his resume displayed exactly the type of coach NC State needed after Chuck Amato – it’s time for results. Remember my favorite mantra – it’s about responsibility, not fault. No ifs, ands, or buts. 7-5 or better, or it’s time to retire. Your move, Coach.
* NOTE – You probably noticed that I didn’t reference winning the bowl, or stipulate a “winning season” which could be achieved by going 6-6 and winning a bowl. Well, that’s because the post-season is so screwy. At 7-5, State would go to a decent bowl, and probably face off against a pretty good opponent. At 6-6, bowl selection rules dictate that you’re probably looking at a directional Michigan school (or someone of that ilk). And there’s your perverse incentive right there, if bowl records are scrutinized. Because the more you win in the regular season and the better your fans travel (ironically, this explains why TOB had such a great bowl record at Boston College – his teams were always “underseeded” because they only have about 15-20 fans), the more likely it is that you will lose the bowl game. And unless you’re in the BCS title game, the bowl is really just a glorified exhibition. But the bids themselves do bring prestige, and earning good ones does matter to your players and prospective recruits.
