[Updated 5:30pm] #119 in the country – Is NC State Basketball going to be this bad?

09-10 Basketball46

CollegeHoops.net is counting down their preseason ranking of every college basketball team and unfortunately for us the Wolfpack’s preview popped up three full months before the season is slated to tip-off.

This link will take you to CollegeHoops’ preview for the #119 ranked NC State Wolfpack, who the site selects to finish last in the ACC (in Coach Sidney Lowe’s fourth season).

You never get perfect insight from national resources who have broad perspectives on things, but this one alright. I don’t know if it is good or bad that they think Lorenzo Brown will be in a Wolfpack uniform this season and they still choose us #119.

Final Projection:
The Atlantic Coast Conference is very tough as always and the Wolfpack will have trouble stopping anybody under the basket if one of the newcomers cannot step in and at least play defense right away. If Smith and Horner are the starting frontcourt, NC State will be a team that lacks toughness in the paint and that is never a good thing in the ACC.

Projected Post-season Tournament: CBI/CIT

Projected Starting Five:
Javier Gonzalez, Junior, Guard, 6.6 points per game
Julius Mays, Sophomore, Guard, 4.7 points per game
C.J. Williams, Sophomore, Forward, 3.7 points per game
Tracy Smith, Junior, Forward, 10.0 points per game
Dennis Horner, Senior, Forward, 6.4 points per game

I am not going to re-hash all of the pre-season talk in which we have already engaged this summer. If you aren’t a daily reader then you should click here for the robust conversation that we had after the Lorenzo Brown news became public last week and click here for another fantastic entry that brings together a lot of summer basketball items and conversations.

One interesting item that we have not yet highlighted this summer is this entry written by Adam Gold shortly after we learned that Lorenzo Brown was not going to be eligible. It takes a broader view of the Brown loss.

Lorenzo Brown isn’t walking through that door.

No offense to Lorenzo, whom I’ve yet to actually see play a basketball game, but I don’t see where that really matters that much to the black cloud that appears to hover over NC State basketball. Remember, that as good as Brown is rumored to be, he was still only rated as a top 40 player by Scout and Rivals, so we’re not really talking about the next Eric Gordon.

That’s not to say that Brown not being a part of the 2009-10 recruiting class isn’t significant. I think it’s highly significant, just not necessarily in a basketball sense. Clearly, the Wolfpack is facing a climb up a very steep slope in order to squeeze into the upper half of the ACC, but that was the case even had Brown gotten through the NCAA’s academic filter.

The significance of Brown not showing up on campus is far more damaging to the public image of the program for two major reasons. The first being that — based on Brown’s reputation — Sidney Lowe won’t be able to showcase his best recruit since J.J. Hickson to the fans to at least give them a glimpse of the type of talent he’s capable of bringing to — and cultivating in — Raleigh. Without Brown on hand, it’s just a team full of role players and no star power, in other words, nothing to alert the media about.

The second, and most troubling part of this equation, is that if you’re the head coach, you absolutely have to know that your #1 recruit is going to be an academic qualifier. I don’t see this as an option. When you’re trying to build a program, and you share an airport with two of the greatest programs in the history of the sport, you have to make sure that the star-caliber players you do get, qualify to play academically and you don’t get caught cheating to get them.

I think Sidney Lowe is a good basketball coach. There are zero men who are given the reins to coach 300 NBA games who can’t coach. I’ve always said that the proof will be whether or not Lowe can attract good enough players to build a strong, contending program on Hillsborough Street. Through 4 years, there’s no indication that recruiting is significantly better than it was during the first four years under Herb Sendek — and we all know that recruiting was the element that took the longest to catch up during the previous administration.

State probably can’t be as good without Brown as they would have been with him, but that element isn’t nearly as damaging as the PR hit you take when your ONLY high-profile recruit doesn’t make the grade — literally.

Updated @ 5pm
Talk about good timing, ESPN has also posted “ACC Shootaround” that takes a broad look at the ACC. I kind of like how much information that they put into this.

They pick the State 11th in the league heading into the season.

11. NC State:The Wolfpack are close, but the only way they get over the hump is with better guard play. Sidney Lowe’s teams have had solid big men, but always seem to fall short in backcourt battles. Being healthy will help, but now the Pack needs some players to step forward and take over the scoring load.

Additionally, they mentioned the Wolfpack on a couple of other points and each mention has an explicit or implicit focus on Coach Sidney Lowe; so, you can see the story line building towards the season.

10. The Lowe down: NC State coach Sidney Lowe said he was going to get a call from good friend and former NBA mentor Flip Saunders about an assistant job with the Washington Wizards. Lowe took the call and stayed put. While the Wolfpack have had a few NBA players come through during Lowe’s tenure, the winning hasn’t been consistent. Making a change now would have meant another rebuilding phase. Keeping Lowe allows for more consistency; whether that translates into more wins, we’ll have to see.

The Wolfpack is all about Sidney Lowe now. The players are his, so the rebuilding is now officially his project. But the team took a hit when high-profile newcomer Lorenzo Brown was shipped off to Hargrave Military Academy instead of the NCSU campus. Brown was the No. 9 shooting guard in the 2009 ESPNU 100. Sophomore C.J. Williams has been the summer stud. He averaged only 3.7 points a game last season, but he’s expected to produce much more after his play this summer.

Tracy Smith was named one of the 10 Key Players in the league…

6. Tracy Smith, Sr., NC State: The Wolfpack need someone — anyone — to stand up and become a go-to player for a squad that has lost its way. This 6-foot-8 forward could be that person in lieu of the departure of Brandon Costner. Smith had his moments last season, averaging 10 ppg on 54 percent shooting. But the Detroit native needs to be the focus for the Pack to snap out of their fog.

…and Scott Wood was named one of the 10 Freshman they can’t wait to see. I agree with them about Wood.

6. Scott Wood, SG, NC State: At 6-7, Wood is a tremendous long-range shooter and has the size to see over defenders. He has a great IQ for the game, but to maximize his impact, he needs to commit himself to improving defensively.

About StateFans

'StateFansNation' is the shared profile used by any/all of the dozen or so authors that contribute to the blog. You may not always agree with us, but you will have little doubt about where we stand on most issues. Please follow us on Twitter and FaceBook

09-10 Basketball

46 Responses to [Updated 5:30pm] #119 in the country – Is NC State Basketball going to be this bad?

  1. McCallum 08/19/2009 at 5:21 AM #

    Anyone that expects State to do anything in basketball must have bought into those Yugo dealerships back in the mid-80s.

    Catch a plane to somewhere exotic, like Bismarck ND, and enjoy life but do not spend one second of your time worrying about the mess in Wake County.

    As for me, I’m building a still and plan on making likker in the near future.

    McCallum

  2. ktforres 08/19/2009 at 6:18 AM #

    Thanks for Bringing me down from the high I was on thinking about football season.

  3. wolfonthehill 08/19/2009 at 6:43 AM #

    No argument from me.

    Wolfpack hoops are one thing to me at this point… a reason to liveblog at Backing the Pack and drink heavily. Nothing more.

  4. Wulfpack 08/19/2009 at 6:51 AM #

    One thing that is clear is that we’re a lot closer to the bottom of the conference than the top. I’m not sure we are the bottom feeder this year as there are a lot of unknowns conference-wide. But it’s getting old. When is it going to change?

  5. Jeff 08/19/2009 at 7:11 AM #

    Wait til next year when Ryan Harrow and Lorenzo Brown get to campus. (I think I just made BJD stick his head in his coffee)

  6. LRM 08/19/2009 at 8:00 AM #

    Just wait ’til that Damien Wilkins kid gets here. He’s the Next David Thompson and will save the program.

  7. choppack1 08/19/2009 at 8:31 AM #

    You know, w/ this Lo Brown fiasco, I’d actually feel somewhat decent about the program. We did make some steps in the right direction last year would be bringing in a stellar recruiting class – and hopefully, would be addressing the most obvious gap w/ the most important recruit to NC State basketball since Julius Hodge…and quite frankly, you’d have to go a long ways back to find anyone else w/ the potential to change the program.

    But the problems w/ Brown changes that. It causes objective people to really question those making the decisions at the heart of the program..you wonder about Harrow’s academic standing…you wonder about Brown’s commitment, you wonder about Harrow’s commitments. You wonder about Brown’s work ethic. You question the staff’s judgement. It’s the equivalent of Josh Hamilton’s slip up – he headed the right direction for a little bit – but bam, you hear about his night on the town and you realize – this kid will be lucky to be the next Steve Howe.

  8. Wolfpack_1995 08/19/2009 at 8:57 AM #

    Depressing…just depressing..

    In year 4 and there are still no signs of progress.

    I bet there are Lowe supporters that will guarantee we see more hustle and effort this year but that still will not get us wins based on our talent.

    I do not follow State to just see hustle and effort(which btw was lacking during Sid’s first 3 years).

    We still have to wait for real talent to get here in year five with Brown and Harrow. What a joke.

    I guess the above fits just fine with Lee’s expectations.

  9. YANCSSB 08/19/2009 at 9:40 AM #

    We’re a top 100 program, easy.

  10. BJD95 08/19/2009 at 9:40 AM #

    ^^^ Jeff, I don’t drink coffee, but I did spew out a good portion of my morning Pepsi. 🙂

    Remember that Fowler and Lowe are already working to lower the bar for YEAR FOUR of this dreadful experiment to “less shitty in February/March than in December/January.” In other words, worst than last year’s level of suck will still be “improvement.” Then, any “dead cat bounce” (like we got in year three) in YEAR FIVE will be spun to the high heavens as proof that the program is on the right track. No sane person will believe this, but that doesn’t mean the Doofus Duo and their enablers won’t try anyway.

    On the Adam Gold blurb, remember that “good basketball coach” does not equal “good HEAD basketball coach.” Nor does it equal “good college basketball coach” or “good program steward.” Hell, “good basketball coaches” are a dime a dozen, you can find numerous qualifiers at the small college, European league, or even the high school level.

  11. choppack1 08/19/2009 at 10:20 AM #

    BJD – he definitely knows basketball – and he can identify talent. Unfortunately though, it’s only part of the battle – and in the ACC, I’d go as far as saying, it’s not nearly as important as other factors.

    I just see a staff that struggles w/ organization – and it shouldn’t be surprising given Lowe’s NBA background. In the “league” – especially as an assistant (or a lower-tiered HC) – you don’t have a ton of say w/ whom you end up with, and you don’t really have to worry about things like off-season conditioning.

    To me, it’s pretty obvious – if Harrow doesn’t sign on the line that’s dotted and won’t be able to enroll next summer, time to end this experiment (certain obvious exceptions are a given in a statement like this)

  12. nycfan 08/19/2009 at 10:33 AM #

    With the caveat that I also think Lowe is a solid x/o coach, I’ll take a little issue with Gold’s supposition regarding Lowe’s head coaching experience in the NBA. Lowe’s aggregate record in the NBA is undeniably awful and as many will point out this is doubtless a result of the terrible expansion teams he was hired to coach.

    But in professional sports, and in the NBA in particular, it seems to me, there are guys who are trying to make it as head coaches who wouldn’t touch such a situation, while there are other guys who know the ins and outs of the League and are considered caretakers for a club that is building/rebuilding/recovering from turmoil. No one expects anyone to win with such clubs, and everyone knows that (a) most NBA coaches are inevitabley fired and (b) whoever takes the caretaker job is DESTINED to (i) have an awful record on his resume and (ii) be fired, so I don’t actually see it as a sign of confidence in Lowe as a head coach (or a potential head coach) that he was offered and/or took those particular jobs. It is a sign that he is considered a reliable caretaker.

    For that matter, the now oft repeated story that Lowe was offered an ASSISTANT coaching job with the Wizards during this past off-season strikes me as weird — how many times have HEAD coaches of a high major college team left to take an assistant coaching position in the NBA? Ever? That situation implied to me that the offeror either was told or for some other reason believed that Sid is not happy where he is and was looking for an escape hatch — otherwise, wouldn’t it be kind of insulting to ask a Head Coach to leave for an assistant’s position, and then make that public? Maybe I’m missing something there.

    OTOH, I think picking State this low for the coming season is silly. This team may not have star power but it should have enough depth/interchangeable parts to finish the ACC out of the basement and otherwise win enough games to be in the top 100, easily.

  13. LRM 08/19/2009 at 11:01 AM #

    I’ve never understood the “identifying talent” aspect of coaching basketball (baseball, absolutely it’s an art). How difficult is it to either go to or watch film for any number of the 7324693764 different AAU & Similar camps every summer?

    Most of us can watch a guy play and tell if he’s talented AND we all love State — doesn’t mean we’re qualified to coach the team.

    That’s why recruiting is such a racket. If you can’t develop the players you recruit as part of a team, it doesn’t matter how good your players are, you’re not ever going to build a winning program.

  14. choppack1 08/19/2009 at 11:04 AM #

    nycfan – One thing I think that Sidney’s multiple stints in the NBA prove: the man gives one hell of an interview.

    And I think that this works well for recruiting as well. However, eventually, you have to stop talking and get down to work.

    And while basketball is basketball, there is a world of difference between the skills that make a good NBA basketball coach and a good college basketball head coach.

  15. packalum44 08/19/2009 at 11:42 AM #

    We have a basketball team????

  16. Thinkpack17 08/19/2009 at 11:54 AM #

    I am excited about this season, I really am, but I can’t blame anyone for picking us to stink out loud. With that said…this guy has no idea what he is talking about. It’s been mentioned he still thinks we have Lo Brown this season, he says “Ideally” we would play Javi at the 2. Javi at the 2…really? Javi is a shrimp, no way he would benefit us at the 2. Joel also says Tracy started at the 3 spot, Tracy started at the 5. He also has picked Dennis Horner to be under the basket this year at the 5 and for Tracy to maybe have enough strength to play the 4. Come on, this guy’s talking out his ass. As would I if you asked me to give a rundown of my 119th pick in the country. Dude, stick to the top 25 and shut up.

  17. Thinkpack17 08/19/2009 at 11:59 AM #

    Oh! And big V is his pick for biggest impact rookie in the long run. Nice.

  18. 61Packer 08/19/2009 at 12:03 PM #

    Do we have a basketball team? JP Giglio sure thinks so! Why, in today’s News & Observer, he stated that our team is so popular that the rest of the league would love to see us (and Miami) as many times as possible. If you got it, you can’t hide it.

    But for the Lowe supporters, don’t worry about that 119 thing this year. Just wait ’til next year!!!

  19. ldr of the pk 75 08/19/2009 at 1:22 PM #

    Wolfpack Basketball is not relevant anymore. Won’t be till “change” comes about. But then, how’s that “change” campaigned for and promised last November working for everyone? Sorry, drifted off subject.

    We are beginning to become the type team that the opposition fans ask, “why’d we schedule them? If we win we’ve accomplished nothing, if we lose, we look like big time chumps”.

    I’m looking forward to Football season and the promise that a program headed in the right direction holds. For basketball, I have my memories of a National Championship I witnessed as a student and another shortly after. Save yourself the stress, blood pressure, heart attack, or whatever, just write Wolfpack Roundball off as not worth worrying about.

    You shouldn’t worry over things you have little ability to control. And if NCSU Alumni haven’t learned but one thing over the last few months, it’s that the average alumni has little ability to control anything at the University level.

  20. DRW 08/19/2009 at 1:44 PM #

    If we finish higher than 11th, I will be shocked. I have absolutely zero confidence that he knows what he is doing and will be able to make State a winning team.

  21. McPete 08/19/2009 at 1:52 PM #

    You guys just wait till Josh Davis gets here and he’s grown like 6″ overnight and he’s like 7 feet tall with mad skills and can’t be stopped. and then Farnold Degand, after his ninth knee surgery, is finally back and faster than ever. and Dennis Horner is so versatile at the 4 spot that he’s like dirk nowitzki but with shorter hair.

    I just feel bad for Tracy Smith since he’s the only player on the roster and will likely get some extra attention. Who else do you have to gameplan around on this team?

    I did read that CJ Williams has had a very nice summer, scoring tons of points for a durham pro am league that had guys like Jerry Stackhouse, John Wall, Josh Powell i think, some Plummlee brothers, etc. Better talent that the Chavis league. Hopefully he will surprise this year.

  22. McCallum 08/19/2009 at 2:12 PM #

    Take the plane to Bismarck folks.

    McCallum

  23. bradleyb123 08/19/2009 at 2:13 PM #

    This prediction is ludicrous. We’re picked to finished 12th in the conference???

    No way we finish any worse than 11th!!!

  24. Thinkpack17 08/19/2009 at 2:29 PM #

    LOL. McCallum…we got it bud, you don’t like our team’s chances. Your comment is first, we all saw it, it just didn’t go over. How many times did Stackhouse get shredded in that league? I counted 6. That’s not me being a hater either. Those are real numbers.

  25. BJD95 08/19/2009 at 2:59 PM #

    An item we will discuss in more detail in the next few days is the head-scratching strength and conditioning hire. We SFN moderators/authors have kicked it around this morning, and despite having varying opinions (and intensity of said opinions) on the Lowe experiment, none of us could make any sense of it.

1 2

Leave a Reply