The State of State Part Three–Meet The Standards

AD & Department Baseball General NC State Administration NCS Basketball NCS Football Non-Revenue Rankings & Lists Stat of the Day58

“My goals have always been to be in the top three in the conference. If you’re in the top three you always have a chance to win the championship. That’s an obvious goal as well. Minimum goals, we don’t want to be in the bottom-half of anything.. the bottom-half in any sport.”
–Lee Fowler, PackPride.com, 5-22-08

“Our minimum should be middle of the conference, not last in the league”
–Lee Fowler, Technician, 8-31-07

These statements lead to three questions.

1. Are NC State’s athletic programs meeting Lee Fowler’s goal of top three in the conference?

The following statistics are for the 21 ACC sports plus Gymnastics, which competes in the East Atlantic Gymnastics League (EAGL). Softball did not begin play until the 2003-04 season. Historical data for Rifle could not be found (see note in Part Two).

top-3-table.jpg

In the 2007-08 season, 81.8% of State’s athletic programs did not meet Fowler’s goal of top three in the conference.

The following programs finished in the top three of the conference in 2007-08:
• M Cross Country
• W Cross Country
• M Outdoor Track
• Gymnastics

For the eight year time span that Lee Fowler has been AD, 27.2% of State’s athletic programs met his goal of top three in the conference.

Two sports have finished in the top three in the conference every year under Fowler:
• M Cross Country
• W Cross Country

One sport has only missed finishing in the top three in the conference once under Fowler:
• Wrestling

Two additional sports have finished in the top three in the conference at least half of the time under Fowler:
• W Basketball
• Gymnastics

Top three finishes for the four major revenue sports:
• W Basketball—4 out of 8 years
• M Basketball—2 out of 8 years
• Baseball—1 out of 8 years
• Football—0 out of 8 years

In five out of eight years at least 30% of State’s athletic programs failed to finish in the top three in the conference.

For the eight year time span that Lee Fowler has been AD, 72.8% of State’s athletic programs did not meet his goal of top three in the conference.

The 2007-08 season is a decline from the 2006-07 season high mark in which 36.4% of State’s programs finished in the top three.

Eight sports have never finished in the top three in the conference under Fowler:
• Football
• W Soccer
• M Swimming
• W Swimming
• M Tennis
• W Tennis
• W Outdoor Track
• Volleyball

Three sports have only finished in the top three in the conference once under Fowler:
• Baseball
• M Soccer
• W Indoor Track

2. Are NC State’s athletic programs meeting Lee Fowler’s minimum standard of middle of the conference?

top-half-table.jpg

In the 2007-08 season, 72.7% of State’s athletic programs did not meet Fowler’s minimum requirement of middle of the conference.

The following programs finished in the top half of the conference in 2007-08:
• Baseball
• M Cross Country
• W Cross Country
• M Outdoor Track
• M Indoor Track
• Gymnastics

For the eight year time span that Lee Fowler has been AD, 41.0% of State’s athletic programs met his minimum requirement of middle of the conference.

Two sports have finished in the top half of the conference every year under Fowler:
• M Cross Country
• W Cross Country

Two sports have only missed finishing in the top half of the conference once under Fowler:
• Wrestling
• Gymnastics

Five additional sports have finished in the top half in the conference at least half of the time under Fowler:
• M Basketball
• Baseball
• M Golf
• M Outdoor Track
• M Indoor Track

Top half finishes for the four major revenue sports:
• W Basketball—5 out of 8 years
• M Basketball—4 out of 8 years
• Baseball—4 out of 8 years
• Football—3 out of 8 years

In five out of eight years at least half of State’s athletic programs failed to finish in the top half of the conference.

For the eight year time span that Lee Fowler has been AD, 59.0% of State’s athletic programs did not meet his minimum standard of middle of the conference.

The 2007-08 season is part of a two year decline from the 2005-06 season high mark in which 59.1% of State’s programs finished in the top half.

Five sports have never finished in the top half of the conference under Fowler:
• W Soccer
• W Swimming
• M Tennis
• W Tennis
• Volleyball

Two sports have only finished in the top half of the conference once under Fowler:
• M Soccer
• M Swimming

3. Are NC State’s athletic programs avoiding finishing last in the conference?

Over the eight year time span, 23 teams (13.3%) in eight different sports have finished dead last in the conference (not counting ties for last).

In 2007-08, three teams (13.6%) finished dead last in the conference:
• M Soccer
• W Soccer
• Volleyball

Volleyball has finished dead last in the ACC in each of the 8 years. Other multiple last place programs are M Soccer (5 times), W Soccer (3 times) and W Tennis (3 times).

About WV Wolf

Graduated from NCSU in 1996 with a degree in statistics. Born and inbred in West "By God" Virginia and now live in Raleigh where I spend my time watching the Wolfpack, the Mountaineers and the Carolina Hurricanes as well as making bar graphs for SFN. I'm @wvncsu on the Twitter machine.

AD & Department Baseball General NC State Administration NCS Basketball NCS Football Non-Revenue Rankings & Lists Stat of the Day

58 Responses to The State of State Part Three–Meet The Standards

  1. john of sparta 05/22/2008 at 8:13 PM #

    is Bass Fishing a club sport?

  2. redfred2 05/22/2008 at 9:05 PM #

    ^Um, I think they use a rod instead.

    I’m pretty sure you’re thinking about seal hunting, and as far I know, we don’t really have a team in that.

  3. PackerInRussia 05/22/2008 at 9:21 PM #

    It appears, according to this data, that the same programs that regularly finish in the top 3 were doing so the entire time (before Fowler). Are there any programs that we can see improvement in–they use to finish in the lower half and now they regularly finish in the upper half or in the top 3? My guess would be no. Perhaps in those middle years where the percentage goes up, but not over the long haul.

  4. choppack1 05/22/2008 at 9:28 PM #

    If you want to set kind of minimum basic expectations, you should finish in the top 3 in 25% of the sports. You should finish in the Top half, 50% of the time.

    In Fowler’s defense, he’s met this top 3 criteria 5 of his 8 years, while the worst year was his first year. (Of course, for the first several years, there was only 9 teams, so we should have 33% in those years.)

    Now, to the bad news, when you look at the 50% target for finishing in the top half of the conference, we’ve achieved that only 3 of 8 years. Our worst was Fowler’s first year, but our second worst is this year. It’s worth noting that after peaking at 59%, we’ve gone down 2 straight years. It could be that the new additions are getting their bearings. This could be the valley before we peak.

    Really though, this is about the most optimistic results you can see when you view the status of the athletic department.

  5. redfred2 05/22/2008 at 9:30 PM #

    WV wolf, thanks for the stats, but I’m convinced already, and I was long before now. Your numbers do not lie.

    Is it me, or is there really no one now at NC State who is smart enough to compile a list like this? It wouldn’t even have to be as good, or go into as much detail as WV wolf’s hard work shows.

    Hell, if anyone up there was ever asked to, say before an award ceremony or something, or had any incentive to put something like this together on their own, they’d probably get so frustrated just looking at the numbers that they’d quit long before WV did anyway.

  6. redfred2 05/22/2008 at 9:41 PM #

    Or, maybe they’d figure out that they’re a loser themself, who is only surrounded by more and more losers.

    Something not unlike the way the Chancellor feels about himself, along with the rest of people he’s comfortably surrounded himself with.

  7. ruffles31 05/22/2008 at 9:48 PM #

    These three parts are just about the most depressing display of facts I have ever seen about our beloved Wolfpack. These statistics are as good of a detailed analysis as I have seen. Thank you WV Wolf for your fantastic work.

    As much as I want State to win, these statistics prove my thesis about us Wolfpack fans:

    “Being a State fan keeps you humble.”

  8. choppack1 05/22/2008 at 9:55 PM #

    ruffles – I dont know what your saying – part 3 is best evidence for hope yet. Parts 1 and 2 were much more damning than this. I don’t remember the 2 years before this one feeling so good though!

  9. melikesncsu 05/22/2008 at 10:03 PM #

    men’s basketball finished dead last in 07-08, right?

    SFN: How can that be? Lee Fowler knows basketball…if you hadn’t heard.

  10. WV Wolf 05/22/2008 at 10:07 PM #

    choppack–“In Fowler’s defense, he’s met this top 3 criteria 5 of his 8 years, while the worst year was his first year.” It’s actually the other way around, 5 out of 8 years we’ve had less than 30% of our teams finish in the top 3. I admit that sentence for that stat is hard to follow but I couldn’t come up with a better way to phrase it (I was a stat major, not an english major). I think this set is the most depressing, we’re not winning titles, we’re not finishing in the top 3, we can’t even finish in the top half. And the numbers this year, when the new facilities factor should be kicking in a little bit, are some of the worst in the Fowler era.

    redfred2–I appreciate the compliments. I guess I was hoping I’d find someway to look at the numbers where we’d come out looking good but that didn’t happen.

    PackerInRussia–your theory is right as far as conference titles are concerned. Both cross country programs and wrestling won multiple ACC titles pre-Fowler with long time coaches. I’m not sure how long the gymnastics coach has been around and of course the softball coach is new.

    ruffles31–thanks for the compliments as well. ruffles31 is a good friend of mine and has given me a lot of good feedback.

    melikesncsu–basketball actually tied BC for 11th. If I had it do over I would have kept track of ties in my research but I didn’t.

  11. choppack1 05/22/2008 at 10:25 PM #

    WV Wolf – I was using the calculation that there are 12 teams in the ACC, so if all things were equal (which they aren’t) you should finish in the top 3, 25% of the time. Of course, when Lee first got here, there were only 9 teams – and when I did my Sears cup analysis I only compared the 9 ACC teams.

    But, no, we’re definitely not making championships, and it appears that the progress we had has halted.

  12. ruffles31 05/22/2008 at 10:30 PM #

    choppack1- Here is where I am coming from.

    In 5 of 8 years, less than 30% of our teams finished in the top 3. This year, only 18% of our teams finished in the top 3, which is the WORST year under Fowler.

    This year we had under 28% of our teams finish in the top half of the ACC. 28%!!!!!!!!!!!!! The only year with a worse percentage was in Fowler’s first year.

    We have a program that has finished in last place every year under the AD, even with a coaching change. Facilities aren’t an issue here, as Wrestling shares Reynolds Coliseum with the Volleyball team.

    Fowler, Purcell, and others have done a good job with upgrades to facilities. The question is when would victories and championships start appearing after these upgrades are finished?

    I give Fowler credit for Coach Navas and creation of the softball program. It was an excellent hire and we have won a title in less than 5 years of existence.

    However, outside of softball, there isn’t a single program that is markedly better when he became AD and today. Men and Women’s Cross Country and Wrestling were very good programs before Fowler came to Raleigh. They still are very good programs. As for the rest, the statistics speak for themselves.

    I hope I am wrong. I want to see victories and championships. But I am just used to this. I enrolled at State in the fall of 1992. How many ACC champions shirts have I been able to buy in the revenue sports of:

    – Football
    – M Basketball
    – W Basketball
    – Baseball

    That would be ZERO! I just don’t see the hope with Fowler as others do.

  13. ruffles31 05/22/2008 at 10:36 PM #

    On a side note, Clayton Shunick just pitched a shutout and the Pack put a beat down on Clemson invoking the mercy rule in a 10-0 7 inning victory tonight. Great JOB PACK!!!!!!!!!

  14. WV Wolf 05/22/2008 at 11:05 PM #

    choppack–I follow you now on the 25% stat.

    It also sucks that one of the few programs that has been consistently good is the one that gets busted in the APR.

  15. BoKnowsNCS71 05/23/2008 at 7:23 AM #

    Redfred — they are smart enought to compile facts like this –it just that they refuse to set performance goals in place for themselves and then act accordingly when those goals are not met. In real life that includes no raises, firing, and corrective action.

  16. Noah 05/23/2008 at 7:39 AM #

    After this series, there should be no question why Lee Fowler hates this blog.

    (that’s a compliment, btw)

  17. tdawg 05/23/2008 at 8:39 AM #

    So, does this mean that Lee Fowler isn’t a good AD? But the faculty senate, and the Chancellor said that he was doing a great job!

  18. whitefang 05/23/2008 at 8:51 AM #

    Noah you are right. “Hit dog hollers” as my grandfather used to say.
    Great work on this series. The truth is pretty painful. Just hope that this massive effort in statistical analysis somehow gets the attention of someone who matters at our beloved institution. At the least wake someone up and quit giving awards to that buffoon. It is embarrassing.

  19. Will NCSU 05/23/2008 at 9:10 AM #

    I have a friend who used to be the Volleyball coach at peace college. She told me they used to wax us on a regular basis in exhibition games. If we cannot compete with Peace and Meridith you know its bad.

  20. nycfan 05/23/2008 at 9:25 AM #

    I think you need some comparisons from other ACC schools to provide a little context (i.e., how are say UNC, VPI and one other ACC program, maybe Maryland (trying to stick with the publics, but maybe you want a private tossed in like WFU) stacking up against the same standards) … I don’t *think* that will help Jed’s cause in the end, but I don’t *know* that to be the case.

  21. choppack1 05/23/2008 at 9:26 AM #

    WV Wolf – yep – I’d also add that I believe that the ACC is VERY weak when it comes to wrestling.

    ruffles – There is no doubt that this year was horrid. But you are going to have good ones and bad ones. If I was doing the judging, I wouldn’t judge someone on their worst OR their best year – but rather their entire book of work. And I don’t think Fowler’s entire book of work is really impressive.

  22. happypackdad 05/23/2008 at 9:33 AM #

    more quotes from Lee:

    “Some teams that didn’t have facilities hadn’t been placed on those requirements, but now all programs are on those requirements and have benchmarks.”

    “I said when I came here that we needed to get our facilities up to par. We’ve done that now. We have competitive facilities. Now I am going to take a different approach with coaches and how long they have given how long they’ve been here. We are going to set some minimum standards, and we are going to notify each coach of what we expect of them individually. Therefore, they will be put on a shorter timeline.”

    seems that Lee is going to now start demanding more from some coaches on terms of winnning, we’ll see.

  23. Clarksa 05/23/2008 at 9:35 AM #

    but…but…facilities…right?

  24. ruffles31 05/23/2008 at 9:35 AM #

    Choppack – I see where you are coming from. Cool. I agree with your rationale. You have to judge the entire body of work, just not one year. And as you say, the entire book is not really impressive.

    I am just a championship starved Wolfpack fan.

  25. old13 05/23/2008 at 9:48 AM #

    I concur that one or two years does not provide a clear picture of one’s performance. Trending analysis is the key. Foulup’s trends seem to be downward. And coupled with his insulting comments about us alumni/fans, throwing coaches under the bus with public statements, not acting on coaches who are not performing, and dragging the school’s name through the mud with his incompetence would produce a pink slip for him at most schools and certainly in a business situation.

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