I’m done feeling sad/angry about the season being over. It’s time to look forward. Here’s what I envision for next year:
Starters: Javi/Degand (PG), Fells (SG), Costner (SF), McCauley (PF), Hickson (C)
First wave of reserves: Degand/Javi (PG), Horner (SG/SF), Grant (SF)
Second wave of reserves: Johnson (SG), Smith (SF/PF) or Thomas (SF)
Thoughts/Analysis:
– PG will be a true job battle. I ultimately expect the minutes to break down something like 25/15, and that Johnson will be the 3rd option. I have no idea which one will be better, short or long term. I do not expect to see Fells or Grant play PG except in an emergency.
– There will be a true rotation at the forward slots, with Grant (or possibly McCauley) essentially serving as the “sixth starter.” With 4 “starters” for 3 positions, that’s approximately 30 minutes per man, subject to adjustment for foul, health, and/or performance issues. Hickson will be the key to establishing a rebounding presence, and I don’t see any way he doesn’t start. Costner will be a legitimate conference POY candidate, and he will also start. McCauley might be better suited to bringing energy off the bench than Grant, if Grant as “sixth starter” doesn’t work out well.
– I am very hopeful that Horner has enough quickness to play at least a chunk of minutes at the 2. I think his handle is already good enough, and he is very smart with the basketball. Especially if Smith qualifies, this would be a much better opportunity for him than serving as the 5th or 6th forward. He could create hellish matchups as a 6’7″+ shooting guard. If this does pan out, then Fells had better work much harder and play much more consistently – or he will lose his starting slot.
– I alluded to it above – Smith’s qualifying is a major X factor. I think he could be an immediate presence on the glass, and really allow Sid to attack opposing frontcourts with waves of big, strong, skilled forwards. I would rather not have to count on Thomas fitting into the rotation right away – it would be better if he had to force himself into the mix with great play and practice work.
– From what I have been told, Johnson will be more of a 2 than a 1, although he could steal minutes at PG better than Fells or Grant. I could see him developing into a quasi-Ginyard role, where he is assigned to lock down the opponent’s best scoring guard.
– The best news – We will have at least a solid 8-man rotation. We could play as many as 11, if Smith qualifies, Johnson is in playing shape, and Thomas progresses quickly.
