A few weeks back, I posted on the relationship between recruiting rankings and championship teams going back several years. With that in mind, its time to take a look at who’s poised for a championship season in 2006.
In 2005, Texas and USC were the clear favorites start to finish. They had the three most important ingredients: talent, a reliable QB, and strong defense to go along with a manageable schedule. In USC’s case, their defense was at least strong relative to their opponents.
This year things are not so clear-cut. No team stands out as an obvious choice for the national title, especially once you factor in the schedule. What we do know is that talent matters. While the most talented team doesn’t always win it all, those without top-notch talent, never do. Last year for example, every conference champion was ranked in the top 3 in their conference based on 5 year recruiting rankings. Texas and USC were both #1 while Florida State and Ohio State (co-champ) were #2. Georgia and Penn State were both #3 with fellow SEC championship game participant LSU #2. The other #1’s were Michigan and Tennessee who both had disappointing seasons.
This year, based on talent alone, USC, UGA, OU, FSU, Miami, Florida, LSU, Texas, Michigan, Tennessee, Auburn, Ohio State, Texas A&M, South Carolina (believe it or not), and Notre Dame are the most talented teams on paper. It’s highly likely that these teams will win the BCS conferences, and two of them will compete for the national title.
Still, QB and defense have to be taken into account. From a QB standpoint, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan, LSU, Florida, and Auburn are in the best shape. OU would have been in that group as well prior to the Bomar scandal. Florida State, South Carolina, and Miami also return quality signal callers. USC, Texas, UGA, Texas A&M, and Tennessee all have major questions at QB.
On defense, Texas likely returns the most quality players. LSU will reload with some outstanding talent. Michigan appears to have a great group returning and should improve in ’06. Ohio State loses almost everyone, but will still be at least decent on defense with the talent they’ve stockpiled. Auburn also has some holes to fill, but they have an outstanding secondary, and seem to always play solid D. USC probably has the best linebackers in the country, but is void of experienced quality defensive backs. Notre Dame returns nearly everyone from a very bad defense. The rest of the teams have talent, but must all replace some quality players.
Overall, the best combinations of talent, QB, and defense are LSU, FSU, Ohio State, Michigan, Auburn, and Florida. Texas, USC, OU, and Georgia all lack proven QB’s, and all play losable games early (Ohio State, Arkansas, Oregon, and South Carolina).
Not only does A&M lack a proven QB, they’ve also greatly under performed under Franchione. Tennessee, in addition to losing many key players, has lost a lot of its luster lately and would require a major turnaround to compete for a championship.
On paper, South Carolina has recruited well the last few years, but attrition has affected the talent level in Columbia, especially on defense. Notre Dame clearly has the tools on offense, but it’s defense that will likely keep a championship out of reach for the Irish.
In the ACC, Florida State should be the runaway favorite to win the conference and is in a strong position to return the national title race. Their toughest conference game is against a Miami team in disarray, and out of conference, Florida still must find its identity on offense. Miami should still be a solid team and good enough to win their division, especially with a Vick less Va Tech team. Georgia Tech seems like a wildcard here with Reggie Ball, Calvin Johnson, and an adequate defense, but the Yellow Jackets lack the overall team talent to contend for a title.
The SEC will be wide open this year, especially in the East. Talent favorite Georgia doesn’t have the QB to win it all, and Florida must decide if it’s Leak’s offense or Meyer’s offense. Barring injury, true frosh, fan favorite Tebow will not be a factor for the Gators at QB. As in 2005, Tennessee has the talent to win it all, but something has happened to that program. Perhaps Cutcliff can turn the offense around, but Vol nation is having problems. Steve Spurrier did a phenomenal job last year with talent that was a little better than most people realized. In year two, he’ll have the offense humming, but the defense will have problems. In the historical parity division of college football, LSU and Auburn have set themselves apart over the last five years and will continue to do so this year. LSU on paper likely has the best team in the country, but road trips to Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, and Arkansas will be very difficult. Throw in the SEC championship game, and it’s a tough road for the Tigers. Auburn loses a lot on defense, but Tuberville hasn’t had a bad defense since he’s stepped on the plains. These are the two best teams not just in the West but also in the entire SEC. Alabama and Arkansas will be solid, but neither will compete for a title.
Despite the huge drop off from last year, USC is still far and away the most talented team in the Pac 10. However, with no established starter at QB, the loss of Bush, who won more than one for the Trojans over the last two years, and a weak secondary, the Pac 10 could be wide open this year. Cal, Arizona State, Oregon, and UCLA all have solid (top 30) talent. Arizona State especially seems to have all the pieces in place to make a run. For USC, if J.D. Booty can get healthy he has the potential to break the Evangel High School (Josh Booty, Phillip Deas, Brent Thompson, and Brock Berlin) curse.
In the Big 12, the loss of Bomar really shakes things up; otherwise OU would have been the clear favorite here. Solid playmakers and a strong defense look promising for UT, but uncertainty at QB is not a good thing for the Longhorns. Vince Young was great because of his talent not because of development from the coaches. McCoy will struggle as a frosh. Who knows if A&M can get out of its funk, but I’ve always questioned Franchione’s character and would love to see him get a Texas sized boot out of College Station.
The conference the South seems to care least about should be as predictable as usual. The winner of the Michigan/Ohio State game will win the conference. Penn State was too much the Michael Robinson show last year, and despite a solid talent base, the Nittney Lions aren’t likely to win it all next year.
FSU doesn’t have the overall best talent, but they probably have the best combination of talent and a favorable path to the title game. On the other hand, if Ohio State’s defense matures quickly, they would be the front-runner. With USC’s questions, the Pac 10 doesn’t have a legitimate contender this year; however, that could make it possible for a surprise team to go undefeated and sneak into the Fiesta Bowl. LSU, Auburn, and Florida would each likely walk through either the Pac 10 or Big 12 this year, but with those three teams playing each other plus a stronger mid conference, it will be tough for the SEC to talk national title in 2006. Its hard to bet against the Big 12 because the lack of competition has landed a Big 12 team in the title game five of the BCS’s eight years; however, my guess is the Fiesta Bowl will be FSU versus the winner of the OSU/Michigan game.
