Regression to the Mean

The more I think about the last five years of the Sendek era, the more a pattern seems to develop. No matter how the season starts, you can expect things to ultimately level out at a “B minus” overall.

Decent regular season? You get the respectable NCAA run (including heartbreaking loss to a power like UConn) of 2002.

Start to have what looks like a very good regular season? You get the late season swoon of 2004, followed by a semi-recovery, then historic collapses in both the ACC (Maryland) and NCAA (Vanderbilt) tournaments.

How about downright mediocre regular seasons, like 2003 and 2005? You get a great ACC tournament run in 2003, with Josh Powell et al being turned loose and Powell in particular playing like a man possessed. But, since it’s written in stone never to get over the hump, State blows a huge second half lead and loses to Duke in the ACC final, then plays tight again and goes down to a pedestrian Cal squad in the 1st round of the NCAAs.

Or 2005, having an all-around crappy year, doing just enough to get a bid (ACCT win over Wake sans Chris Paul), then coming out of nowhere to upset mighty UConn and make the Sweet Sixteen. Followed, of course, by a clunker against a very beatable Wisconsin team.

What do all of these have in common? When you grade it all out, it’s neither good nor bad. It’s a B-minus. Every year. Of course, it would have been my rear end had I come home with consistent B-minuses, but my parents had higher expectations than Lee Fowler.

So, tell me again why anyone was surpised that the “historic” 10-3 start to the ACC season was followed by a collapse down the stretch? And why history predicts “inconclusive” performances in both the ACC and NCAA tourneys? Consistently neither good nor bad. Regardless of player mix, conference strength, etc. – consistent pretty goodness. We all know what the constant (or limiting reagent, depending on your worldview) in this mix is.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

General NCS Basketball

34 Responses to Regression to the Mean

  1. Rick 03/07/2006 at 3:40 PM #

    This is why Sendek is the biggest curse there is.
    He is good enough to stay here forever but not good enough to actually win something.
    He consistently does enough that there are pros for him and there are cons against him.
    At some point you have to cut bait.

  2. choppack 03/07/2006 at 3:58 PM #

    BJ – For some reason – probably the primary reason being that the season isn’t yet over – I’m holding out hope for something special this year.

    For me – I break down the season into 3 components – the ACC regular season, the ACC tournament, and the NCAA tournament. I’d like for once – just once – to see Herb acheive satisfactory marks in all 3. Mind you, he doesn’t have to go 14-2, and win both tourneys. Last year – for example – we had a satisfactory finish in 2 of the 3. (For Sendek, that’s a tremendous success.) I’ll also still have to begrudingly admit that if we still salvage a Sweet 16 out of this year or an ACC tourney title – we are making progress towards our goal. I just hate that it is at such a turtle’s pace – and the fact that is slow makes one reasonably ask – when will we get to the promised land?

  3. ncsslim 03/07/2006 at 4:18 PM #

    What if we make it into a regional, and say, just for fun, lay an egg against an opponent that we were actually favored to beat. Say, go on something like a 20 minute scoring drought (“HerbDrought”) and stink the place up in the biggest exposure setting of the year. Mind you, just a freakish example, nothing like that would ever happen. Would we still consider the entire f’n year a total success because we basically won ONE game?

  4. Rick 03/07/2006 at 4:29 PM #

    “I’ll also still have to begrudingly admit that if we still salvage a Sweet 16 out of this year or an ACC tourney title ”
    How is a S16 progress?

  5. choppack 03/07/2006 at 4:32 PM #

    nccslim – At the end of the day, for me – it doesn’t matter if we lay an egg in that regional final or semifinal – because the result is all that matters to me. Of course, you’re talking to a Cowboys fan he was happy when they fired Tom Laundry and a State fan who wasn’t fooled by Les’ solid results vs. Deano.

    When watching the games I’m very emotional (too much so) – however, when I think back on the season, I just try to slip the results into categories. It’s probably a psychological protection method to save me from insanity!

  6. choppack 03/07/2006 at 4:33 PM #

    Rick – I would consider it progress because this year we’d have a better ACC regular season record than last year AND another Sweet 16. That would be better than last year where we didn’t have a good regular season.

  7. Jeff 03/07/2006 at 4:44 PM #

    These comments are very interesting to me.

    I always like seeing/reading how different people break things down.

    This “Regression to a B-minus Mean” is a very appropriate and accurate perspective. I can understand choppack’s perspective of calling this season ‘progress’ if we achieve a S16 (because of the better regular season).

    But, the progress is on the most miniscule of proportions when compared to where the program is and how unacceptably long it has taken us to get here.

  8. class of '74 03/07/2006 at 4:47 PM #

    I think you have it right. He’s average to slightly better than average and he will NEVER get that “A” the fans seek and he’ll never get the “F”. His record is like his personality, bland!

  9. choppack 03/07/2006 at 5:05 PM #

    “But, the progress is on the most miniscule of proportions when compared to where the program is and how unacceptably long it has taken us to get here.”

    Jeff – I think that’s a key. No one in their right mind would argue that this hasn’t been a very slow journey – and it’s I think it’s an open issue whether or not it’s acceptable. If somehow, 5 years from now, we’ve gone to a couple of final 4 and have hung some banners – a couple of ACC championships and a regular season title or two – maybe the journey has been worth it. Particularly if it leads to the kind of stability they’ve enjoyed at Duke and Chapel Hill and Herb mentors our version of Roy Williams. (You know, a coach who has his mentor’s best traits, and has fewer of his worse ones.)

    One of my credos is you are never in a good position when you have to tell someone else “Trust me.” In this case, we’re being asked to trust that Sendek will turn our program into an elite one. In 10 years, there is no evidence he has done this. We’ll be told to look at the overall progress, and trust that it will continue and trust that we haven’t hit the high-water mark.

  10. VaWolf82 03/07/2006 at 5:08 PM #

    “I’ll also still have to begrudingly admit that if we still salvage a Sweet 16 out of this year or an ACC tourney title �
    How is a S16 progress?

    It’s not progress….but it would be a whole lot better than what I am expecting and at least it wouldn’t be falling backwards. A S-16 would also give State an extra week of exposure in the media and should help with recruiting this summer.

    But it’s definitely not progress.

  11. Matt E. 03/07/2006 at 5:23 PM #

    I don’t understand why people judge the season before it’s actually over. We have no idea how it’s going to turn out. We could lose our next two games and the season would be a definite disappointment. We could win the ACC and lose in the round of 32. We could lose on Friday then make a run to the final 4. Anything is possible and any of those scenarios are going to paint a different picture of the success of the season. I think it’s best to hold off until the end and see what happened and then judge how we did.

    I suppose all the talk during the season makes for good water cooler talk though.

  12. class of '74 03/07/2006 at 5:24 PM #

    If a judgement can not be rendered after 10 years there is little hope. Please cite some examples of coaches who languished this long and suddenly turned it around and became perennial elite winners. I can not recall anyone fitting this description.

  13. Cardiff Giant 03/07/2006 at 5:33 PM #

    I’d say even a B- is generous. He got a good solid B for last season, but generally I’d put him in the C+ range. Don’t ask me to defend it; it’s just a gut feeling. He loses the low B because of his miserable record against our arch rival and Duke, as well as his seemingly inability to prevent a mid or late season swoon. That’s not even average coaching – as I’ve said before, it sucks.

    Give him an A at donor stroking, though.

  14. ncsslim 03/07/2006 at 5:35 PM #

    The judgement is based on experience, which is the big farce of the sss’ constant sarcastice “fire Roy”, “fire K”, etc, posting when they have a slip-up. Their base (although also not happy in the real time) fully knows that history is still in their favor. Us, on the other hand, well, you be the judge.

  15. Cardiff Giant 03/07/2006 at 5:36 PM #

    “I don’t understand why people judge the season before it’s actually over. We have no idea how it’s going to turn out. ”

    Matt, I admire your optimism, so forgive me for noting you sound like Charlie Brown pondering yet another attempt at kicking Lucy’s football. We CAN extrapolate likely results from ten years of similar stuff. Sure, we could win the tournament and make a deep run in the NCAA. It’s possible, and certainly more powerful than, say, my getting super powers. It’s just not, given past results, very likely.

    Either way, he’s done a lousy job in the past three games, and he knows it. So do you.

  16. TVP 03/07/2006 at 6:04 PM #

    “If a judgement can not be rendered after 10 years there is little hope. Please cite some examples of coaches who languished this long and suddenly turned it around and became perennial elite winners. I can not recall anyone fitting this description.”

    This is a really interesting point. You couldn’t have cited an example of a coach who missed the NCAA tournament for his first 5 years and then turned his program into an annual NCAA team. In fact, if I recall correctly, Jeff did a lot of work at the time demonstrating exactly that.

    So Herb already beat the odds once to make the jump from bad to pretty good. Can he make an even tougher jump to an elite status?

  17. WufPacker 03/07/2006 at 8:33 PM #

    So, is a respectable ACCT showing, and a sweet 16 NCAAT finish to be considered progress? I agree with what VaWolf82 said. When taking everything into account over the past several seasons, I can’t see that a sweet 16 is progress.

    HOWEVER, it is also NOT regression, which at this point I think is pretty important. I give Herb grief when its warranted and I also want to give him credit where its due. IF (IF, IF, IF) he can pull this team out of the tailspin its been in for the past few weeks and get decent post season results that end with a sweet 16 or better, then thats pretty substantial in my book, and a pretty impressive coaching job, and he would deserve the credit for it.

    Overall it might not be the progress we’d like to see when compared with results from previous years, but also it would not be regression, especially when taken with the regular season as a whole, and not just the last few weeks. And it would definitely be pleasantly exceeding current (as of today, that is) expectations for the postseason.

    While not progress by the strict definition, it would be a good coaching job given how the later portion of the season has gone. Unfortunately, I do not believe it will happen. That being said, I hope to be pleasanly surprised and be able to eat the crow and give Herb the credit he would be due.

  18. WolfInVolCountry 03/07/2006 at 9:22 PM #

    The best measure of the progress of this program is regular season and ACCT performance. By most stats we consistently finish 4th or worse. This has been the State of State for too long. An average program relegates us to the shadows of Duke and UNC. Herb doing what he does at a mid-Major or at Big-10/PAC-10 also-rans like Purdue/Oregon would be commendable. But this is the program that Case built. This is ’74 and ’83 and Reynolds Collesium and Whittenber-to-Charles. This is State and we deserve better.

  19. tmachine 03/07/2006 at 9:47 PM #

    Why do we approach Herb with such anguish and angst? He is on a 15 year plan. He is only 10 years into it so we have got to be patient and see him through this first 15 years! Great teams are built on great recruiting and exciting wins when we are not picked to win. Herb has certainly got us those unexpected wins……… and his recruiting has been stellar its just that some of his recruits jumped ship and went to other schools after 1 year with him. Do you think they saw something like maybe “LOSER” or NO WAY THIS PROGRAM EXCELS or I’m outta here cause he is no smarter than I am and I am a new recruit! Alas, I am solidly behind his 15 year plan and who knows I could even wait 20 years cause I know Herb is the right guy…..unless Kelvin Sampson at OK decides to come back home to North Carolina and then I would dump Herb like yesterday’s newspaper! But again you would agree that 20 years is a fair time to wait and wait and wait and wait and wait and wait and wait and wait and wait and wait and oh did I say wait

  20. Matt E. 03/07/2006 at 9:53 PM #

    Cardiff,

    I find it funny that a fan base that admires Jimmy V so much often forgets his most memorable phrase. Until the seasons over I’ll be optimistic thanks, life is more enjoyable that way. Plus Lucy is bound to leave the ball there one time 😉

  21. Jeff 03/08/2006 at 8:17 AM #

    ^ If it was such a memorable phrase, why does nobody remember it?

    The best measure of the progress of this program is regular season and ACCT performance

    Why are some people (not saying the original poster) using “progress” as a measuring stick after 10 years? At about year 4 or 5, “progress” should be largely stripped from the equation and “performance” has to become important at some point.

  22. RickJ 03/08/2006 at 8:56 AM #

    I am reluctant to bring this into the discussion but there are so many academic references in this blog that it may be relevant. Julius Hodge, Levi Watkins, Jordan Collins, Ilian Evtimov, Tony Bethel and Cam Bennerman (not positive on this one) will all earn degrees from NC State in a two year period. I cannot recall this number of scholarship basketball players graduating from NC State in a two year period in the past 40 years. Please correct me if my memory is faulty.

    Herb deserves a lot of credit for this and it is a very big deal to many people that love NC State. He also deserves criticism for the number of transfers we’ve had that has lowered our overall graduation rates. This is not posted to suggest that we can’t win at the highest level and graduate our players because I believe we can do both but we have to do both and we haven’t in the past.

  23. Matt E. 03/08/2006 at 8:59 AM #

    ^ Bah, semantics, maybe “famous” would have been a better choice of words.

    “Why are some people (not saying the original poster) using “progressâ€? as a measuring stick after 10 years? At about year 4 or 5, “progressâ€? should be largely stripped from the equation and “performanceâ€? has to become important at some point.”

    I agree. Once you consistently go to the NCAAs there is no more progress only performance.

  24. Rick 03/08/2006 at 9:31 AM #

    “I would consider it progress because this year we’d have a better ACC regular season record than last year AND another Sweet 16. That would be better than last year where we didn’t have a good regular season.”

    So we are now redefining progress to include things we have already accomplished? It is not like our regular season record is better than the best we have, it does not even equal it. With that definition you can call anything “progress”.

    Hey we had a losing record in the ACC last year but beat that so we are making “progress”. I know understand how people can approve os Sendek, they define anything he does as being what they wanted. Therefore he is always succesful.

    Jeff is right. You have to transition from progress (especially the way you define it) and move to performance.

  25. topOtheorder 03/08/2006 at 11:00 AM #

    BJ has definitely hit the nail on the head as far as why it has been so disatisfying being a State bball fan, even during the last few “progress” years…Even when we were playing well earlier in the season, we still had to suffer through excruciating losses vs Iowa, UNC, and Duke—how differently we might all feel if we had come through in those 3 winnable games…

    Regardless, we all have to root, hope, and pray for a strong finish (or at least a respectable one), especially in the NCAAT. As VAWolf pointed out, a S16 might not feel like “progress” to long hungry fans, but it would help a lot with recruiting this summer. Sendek is not going to be let go after this season, but, if he were to tank next year ala GT/Hewitt and WF/Prosser did this year, he could be let go after next year. And a future foundation of Chris Wright + another quality athletic guard + a quality big guy in addition to a cupboard hopefully full of Ced + Costner & MacCauley + Werner & Horner + Davis + etc would be VERY appealing to a lot of coaches out there. Even with the specter of UNC & Duke, this would not be a rebuilding job, and coaches such as Barnes and others would have to take a look at the situation and understand that our hungry fans would annoint them king if they brought just slightly better results (say a B- up to even an A-) and an injection of personality (fire or humor) as well as just the simple fact of a fresh start with a new coach. Who knows, maybe Nate McMillan is encouraging his son to come here because Nate knows that, even if Sendek falters and is let go, Nate himself might want the job…

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