One Possession Games (3 Pts or less)

General NCS Basketball Stat of the Day32

Herb Sendek Era (1996-2006)

* 20-32 overall

* 4-17 in last 21 games

* Lost 15 of 20 games with Julius Hodge’s recruiting class

* 6-17 in the last four and half “great” seasons

11/25/96: 44-41 Penn State (W)
1/15/97: 56-59 North Carolina (L)
1/25/97: 52-53 Georgia Tech (L)
2/12/97: 44-45 North Carolina (L)
2/16/97: 60-59 Wake Forest (OTW)
11/11/97: 47-45 Georgia (W)
11/12/97: 36-38 Princeton (L)
12/4/97: 71-69 Georgia Tech (W)
12/20/97: 68-67 South Carolina State (W)
1/10/98: 65-68 Maryland (L)
1/18/98: 56-59 Virginia (L)
1/31/98: 82-80 Clemson (OT-W)
3/5/98: 65-63 Florida State (W)
1/16/99: 56-59 North Carolina (L)
2/2/99: 51-50 Georgia Tech (W)
2/14/99: 79-82 Virginia (OTL)
3/15/99: 58-61 Princeton (L)
12/1/99: 61-59 Purdue (W)
1/6/00: 68-66 Maryland (W)
1/12/00: 65-62 Virginia (W)
2/24/00: 63-66 Georgia Tech (L)
2/27/00: 63-66 Clemson (L)
3/11/00: 61-64 Maryland (L)
3/21/00: 60-57 Arizona State (W)
3/28/00: 59-62 Wake Forest (OT L)
12/5/00: 77-76 UNC-Greensboro (W)
1/13/01: 69-72 Clemson (L)
1/25/01: 84-81 Florida State (W)
2/3/01: 53-54 Syracuse (L)
12/23/01: 67-66 Houston (W)
1/15/02: 80-79 Clemson (W)
1/30/02: 81-82 Wake Forest (L)
3/17/02: 74-77 Connecticut (L)
2/9/03: 58-61 Virginia (L)
3/2/03: 65-68 Maryland (L)
3/5/03: 63-60 Clemson (W)
3/20/03: 74-76 California (OT L)
12/20/03: 55-58 South Carolina (L)
1/20/04: 65-66 Boston College (OT L)
1/28/04: 66-68 North Carolina (L)
3/3/04: 69-70 Maryland (L)
3/13/04: 82-85 Maryland (L)
3/21/04: 73-75 Vanderbilt (L)
1/9/05: 66-67 Miami (L)
1/19/05: 71-72 Virginia Tech (L)
2/05/05: 62-64 Virginia (L)
2/13/05: 53-51 Georgia Tech (W)
3/06/05: 53-55 Wake Forest (L)
3/20/05: 65-62 Connecticut (W)
11/30/05: 42-45 Iowa (L)
2/1/06: 66-64 Virginia (W)
2/12/06: 68-71 Georgia Tech (L)

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General NCS Basketball Stat of the Day

32 Responses to One Possession Games (3 Pts or less)

  1. Fish 02/12/2006 at 3:36 PM #

    To be fair, you all probably should include the Clemson and Miami games not that these games will make a difference.

    Most objective viewers will understand the point-under Sendek’s tenure State is horrible with the game on the line in the last one minute. Is it coaching, execution, lack of a point guard, etc.?

    If you reverse those numbers, no one would be complaining.

    Mark it down-this team will lose at least four more regular season conference games.

  2. classof63 02/12/2006 at 3:36 PM #

    have someone call gopack.com and tell them that North State Carolina lost today

  3. Jeff 02/12/2006 at 3:39 PM #

    Fish,

    We’ve got a different chart for all overtime games. Trying to get it into an attractive version to be run after the next OT game.

  4. Slader4881 02/12/2006 at 3:41 PM #

    I have to agree that we have had some horrible close games over the years, but today in my opinion doesn’t even fall into that catergory. I think we lost the game earlier on and the ending was just a hail mary shot.

    1) I think our ability to stop penatration is really going to kill us in the end. Clemson, Miami, UVA , and now GT all had guards that killed us off the dribble all day. Zam Freddrick looked like Curly Neal going right by us over and over. The only time we really stopped him was their last time they had the ball.
    2) Missed layups and opportunities off turnovers never help. GT had a stretch where they tried to hand us the game and we just didn’t want it. If you get a turnover and you don’t have numbers DO NOT force it. Atsur did this a few times.
    3) Overall I am not that angry because I knew one of these teams on the road that we should beat would sneak up and get us. Now the telling sign will be at FSU. If we can beat them on the road this team may be different from the past years, but if we go down again it will be the same old NCSU bball team.

  5. VaWolf82 02/12/2006 at 3:58 PM #

    It’s going to be tough to beat FSU on the road…mostly because the game is in Raleigh. 😉

  6. scott 02/12/2006 at 4:05 PM #

    On 1/30, I predicted State would finish the regular season 10-6, 21-8, w/a probable 23-10 overall mark at the end of the season, which would be entirely consistent w/ the mediocre accomplishments of Herb’s prior teams. I was beginning (w/a glimmer of hope) to doubt that prediction, particularly after the Miami game, but after today, I’d say he’s right on track. Bet we lose the rematch against Roy’s “inexperienced” team too. Really hope I’m wrong, but….

  7. RickJ 02/12/2006 at 4:50 PM #

    In 3 of our 5 losses this year, Ced has played 21 minutes (UNC), 19 minutes (Seton Hall) and 17 minutes (GT) because of foul trouble. He played big minutes in the other 2 losses at Iowa & Duke and had great games. We overcame his reduced minutes against Seton Hall & Wake. I am amazed at how often Ced gets 1 or 2 fouls during the first 7 or 8 minutes of a game. I don’t have any solution to this issue but I know we are a much better team down the stretch when Ced is in the game and unencumbered by foul trouble.

  8. BJD95 02/12/2006 at 5:02 PM #

    We MUST get Big Ced re-involved in the offense, and get significant production from him. Otherwise, we are just an ordinary team – the kind that can lose to a team like Georgia Tech despite shooting 50% from the field, both overall and from behind the arc.

    In retrospect, the fact that we didn’t give the game away might be even more troubling than the alternative – it’s not good for a poor team like GT to be able to beat us straight up like that.

  9. Greg 02/12/2006 at 5:13 PM #

    PANIC PANIC PANIC! Lets all just flat out panic!

    OMG! What if we dont make the big dance???? LOL..

    Come on guys….get a life. Accept this for what it was….a loss to a lesser team on their home floor who simply outplayed us. We wouldnt be whining like this after the Dook game if we had won would we?

    Enough with the doomsday crap. At this point in the season the ‘Pack has earned the right to not worry too much about one game…the only games that are important now come AFTER we play Wake Forest.

    Move on…

  10. site admin 02/12/2006 at 5:15 PM #

    We wouldnt be whining like this after the Dook game if we had won would we?

    are you a moron?

  11. Jeff 02/12/2006 at 5:15 PM #

    Greg, who said one single comment remotely similar to your post? This isn’t Pack Pride. We don’t act that way here.

  12. SaccoV 02/12/2006 at 5:27 PM #

    Although there is some merit in the notion that we tend to over-react to a loss, no one has mentioned yet that we had beaten GT seven straight times going into this one. I’m not angry as much as disappointed in the performance. Defensively, GT killed us with drives to the basket. Zam Frederick looks All-ACC against us and can’t tie his own shoelaces against anyone else. None of our guards took advantage of Frederick’s 4 fouls either. Turnovers on the road will kill you. Period. 19 turnovers will generally lose any game you play, especially in conference.
    Regardless of the loss, it didn’t immediately jeopardize our ability to make the tournament. These last five games will be crucial to our seed in the NCAA tournament, and maybe this loss cost us a #3. At the end of the day, we’re still in the driver’s seat for the 2nd place finish in conference, which is more than what all of us really expected.

  13. VaWolf82 02/12/2006 at 5:45 PM #

    Accept this for what it was….a loss to a lesser team on their home floor who simply outplayed us.

    If it was just one game….then I would probably be extremely upset. However, State’s play has not been up to par for a while and thus I’ve been prepared for a loss to a lesser team for some time.

    As I pointed out before the game, I have been afraid that the BC, GW, and Duke games represent the ceiling for State…instead of “par”. This game doesn’t necessarily confirm my worse-case scenario…but it certainly doesn’t dispel any doubts.

  14. lumberpack 02/12/2006 at 6:42 PM #

    I thought a corner was turned. I was wrong. We lost to the worst team in the league and could not even get off a shot at the end. And what’s the reason we don’t need a point guard again?

  15. BJD95 02/12/2006 at 7:37 PM #

    I also realized (a few hours after the game) that the guy who was killing us (ZF) was playing with 4 fouls for quite some time. Offensive plans A, B, and C should have been to drive the lane with whoever he was guarding.

    I really want to see this team play like they did against GW and Duke, and soon. I don’t want to go into NCAAT play just HOPING for such a re-emergence.

  16. TVP 02/12/2006 at 7:40 PM #

    ^Hey Wake is still out there…we haven’t lost to the worst team in the league yet. 😉

    It was only a matter of time before a) GT broke through (they are too talented to have lost that many in a row) b) GT beat us (7 straight, all fairly close) and c) We lost a tight game (4 close wins in a row). So I’m not all that surprised.

    If I’m disheartened by anything it’s Grant’s incredible (in a bad way) decision at the end. I thought HE had turned a corner and could be a reliable player in late game situations…that was inexcusable.

    Props to Ev for almost getting a triple double today. Wow.

    As for our record in close games, I don’t think the 3 points or less stat is that great a metric for a number of reasons. I am more interested in how we do in games that are tight down the stretch, which would include the above games but also games such as Duke, UNC and Maryland this year.

    I defined close games as those that were one posession games at any time after the 4 minute (final TV timeout) mark. Here’s the results for the last two years:

    05-06: 5-4 (so far)
    04-05: 5-6

    haven’t looked before then.

  17. Jeff 02/12/2006 at 8:08 PM #

    “Although there is some merit in the notion that we tend to over-react to a loss, no one has mentioned yet that we had beaten GT seven straight times going into this one”

    ?

    No one, except this entire entry at the beginning of today.

  18. VaWolf82 02/12/2006 at 8:28 PM #

    I don’t want to go into NCAAT play just HOPING for such a re-emergence.

    I’ve been hoping for the re-emergence for at least three weeks now. You can sometimes see it in stretches, but not for an entire game.

  19. Fish 02/12/2006 at 8:38 PM #

    We are just not that good. What is wrong with saying that. We have been squeaking by against average to below average teams all the while by hitting a high percentage of our three pointers. Meanwhile Duke, UNC and BC have been beating the same teams by a lot wider margin and comfort.

    What happens when the three point accuracy goes dim and we continue to play the other facets of the game the same way. It is going to be Seton Hall ugly and likely one and done.

    Unlike last year, this team is not getting any better and unfortunately it does not look like they are going to get any better before March.

  20. Fred McCulloch 02/12/2006 at 9:39 PM #

    I agree with the notion that Tech was going to get even at some point for all of their close losses. I think Wake is in very much the same boat. I don’t think it is time to panic. It is clear that Simmons is the one player whose absence hurts us the most. We are still in a very favorable position. 5-3 or 6-2 over the second half is still very achieveable. 11-5 almost certainly gets us no worse than a tie for second. Remember that this is a team that everybody had serious questions about before the season. If we get Brackman going again things will be just peachy.

  21. lumberpack 02/12/2006 at 9:40 PM #

    face it, herb’s bread and butter is squeaking by sorry teams, who is the best team we have beaten this year?

    George Washington?

    the league is way down this year and we can’t beat UNC’s freshman team or a sub .500 GT team.

    Heres to a loss in the semi-finals in the ACC tourney and a loss in in the round of 32 in the NCAA in Timbucktu

  22. blpack 02/12/2006 at 10:04 PM #

    ^ Lumberpack-
    the sad thing is most Pack fans know you are right until something happens to change this direction. I’d love to see us do well, but we are at a critical juncture of the season and we are playing poorly. Same old, same old for State. Our neighbors would not put up with this.

  23. Herb is the Word 02/12/2006 at 10:10 PM #

    Our neighbors wouldn’t put up with this? We are a full game ahead of UNC, and SEVEN games ahead of Wake. We have won four of the last five games, and are in second place in the ACC. What are you talking about?

  24. Greg 02/12/2006 at 11:49 PM #

    SFN: Greg, making psychological assessments of people in the community and making stawman arguments is something that is allowed on other message boards. We aren’t looking to create that kind of environment here.

    — Thanks

  25. class of '74 02/13/2006 at 6:31 AM #

    Unfortunately this game just highlights why this team struggles. We are weak
    against the quick penetration teams and we lack the coach on the floor in the final moments of halves and end of game situations. The “Princeton or motion or whatever Herb wants to call it” offense can not mask the necessity of a good point guard to run the team in those crucial moments. It’s just groundhog day over and over again year after year!

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