Now that we’ve seen what the RPI rankings of Final Four teams look like, let’s look to see how various ACC coaches have done with respect to the RPI rankings and head-to-head comparisons.
Notes:
– For simplicity, I will only look at those coaches who have taken their team to the NCAA tournament at least twice during the last four years.
– Al Skinner and BC were included for informational purposes only. Meaningful comparisons will have to wait until BC has played an ACC schedule.
– Only years from current ACC coaches were included.
– The years that a team appeared in the NCAA tournament are noted in RED and BOLD.
|
Final RPI Ranking |
||||
|
|
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005* |
|
NC State |
37 |
53 |
17 |
65 |
|
Duke |
4 |
12 |
1 |
4 |
|
Georgia Tech |
82 |
76 |
16 |
27 |
|
|
2 |
37 |
18 |
57 |
|
|
— |
— |
19 |
6 |
|
|
24 |
7 |
20 |
7 |
|
|
40 |
49 |
22 |
9 |
*New RPI formula implemented.
Interesting Trivia #1
In 2003 and 2005, NC State had the lowest RPI ranking of any team receiving an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. This doesn’t prove that State was the last team in, but it sure is a strong suggestion.
Interesting Trivia #2
Much was made in the comments of a recent entry about State having to play a lot of ACC teams who were also top-10 teams…thus claiming that Herb’s miserable record versus the RPI Top-50 is skewed and misleading. However, the ACC only had two top-10 teams in 2002 and only one top-10 team in 2003 and 2004. This raises the question of what exactly is happening here…skewing statistics or scrambling for excuses?
Record vs RPI Top-50 |
|||||
|
|
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
Cumulative Winning Percentage |
|
NC State |
3-7 |
2-8 |
7-7 |
4-8 |
0.348 |
|
Duke |
11-2 |
4-2 |
10-4 |
7-2 |
0.762 |
|
Georgia Tech |
3-11 |
2-6 |
8-7 |
2-7 |
0.326 |
|
|
9-3 |
2-5 |
7-9 |
3-4 |
0.500 |
|
|
— |
— |
7-7 |
6-3 |
0.565 |
|
|
5-8 |
3-3 |
8-7 |
6-3 |
0.512 |
|
|
4-7 |
1-5 |
6-6 |
6-3 |
0.447 |
Interesting Trivia #3
In Doherty’s last year, UNC went to the NIT with a 5-8 record (38% winning percentage) against the RPI Top 50. That same year, State went to the NCAA tournament with a 2-8 record (20% winning percentage) against the RPI Top-50.
Interesting Trivia #4
Herb has only exceeded Doherty’s 38% winning percentage against the RPI Top-50 (from 2003) one time.
|
Combined Regular Season and ACC Tourney Results NC State’s Record vs: |
|||||
|
|
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
Overall |
|
Duke |
0-3 |
1-2 |
1-1 |
0-2 |
2-8 |
|
Georgia Tech |
1-1 |
1-1 |
2-0 |
2-0 |
6-2 |
|
|
1-2 |
0-2 |
1-2 |
2-0 |
4-6 |
|
|
— |
— |
0-2 |
0-2 |
0-4 |
|
|
0-2 |
1-2 |
2-0 |
1-2 |
4-6 |
|
|
— |
0-1 |
0-1 |
— |
0-2 |
Interesting Trivia #5
In Doherty’s last year, UNC was 6-10 in the ACC. In Roy Williams first year, UNC was 8-8 in the ACC, ie only two games better. However, Doherty was 0-2 against State in 2003 and Roy was 2-0 against State in 2004.
So What Does This Mean?
Where does Herb and NC State rank in the ACC over Herb’s best four years? I think that most rational people would rank Herb and State behind Duke, UNC (with Roy), Maryland, and Wake Forest. Much like Lee Fowler has forgotten Herb’s first five years, I am sure that very few people (other than certain State fans) make any attempt to recall Doherty’s last two years at Carolina.
You can argue about Sendek vs Hewitt (because of Georgia Tech’s run to the NCAA title game), but I would think that the head-to-head record and four straight trips to the NCAA tournament put Herb and State ahead of Georgia Tech. As mentioned previously, there is not enough data to make good comparisons with Boston College.
Attempts have been made to excuse or ignore State’s losses to teams rated in the RPI Top-10. However, I will go one better. What is Herb’s record vs the top four ACC coaches (by my evaluation) when State had the same or better ACC record? (Of course, this stipulation removes Duke from the comparison.)
|
Year |
State’s Record |
Opponent |
Opponents Record |
State’s Record vs Opponent (includes ACCT) |
|
2002 |
9-7 |
|
9-7 |
0-2 |
|
2004 |
11-5 |
|
9-7 |
2-0 |
|
2004 |
11-5 |
|
8-8 |
0-2 |
|
2004 |
11-5 |
|
7-9 |
1-2 |
|
2005 |
7-9 |
|
7-9 |
2-0 |
|
|
|
|
Total: |
5-6 |
Once again, Herb comes out on the short end.
I have recently pointed out many of the mistakes I see State fans make when analyzing or discussing NC State athletics. I have no interest in making those (or any) mistakes. I am not interested in compiling or skewing stats to justify some preconceived opinion or conclusion. I am simply listing facts and trends that I have seen over the last several years of the Great Herb Debate. If someone has some conflicting data, then by all means present it. However, I am not interested in doing some statistical study that someone else dreams up…so don’t waste your time suggesting that I do it.
I am sure that no one expects to change the past. However, I am constantly amazed that State fans can’t even agree on what the facts are.
Rhetorical Questions
Why does discussing Herb’s record constantly get labeled as being critical or negative? If his record is considered out-of-bounds, then what are we supposed to talk about….Seeds of Greatness?…or maybe the latest uttering from some 16 year old phenom?
