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I suspect that inertia impacts those that try and do a bracket with seeds on a daily basis. To move someone in, you have to move someone else out. To move someone up, you have to move someone down. The hassle far exceeds my maximum acceptable threshold.
That’s why I like my system that’s based on the assumption/ conclusion that what’s worked in the past (in either direction) will work again. If we were following a mid-major, then that would probably end up with a larger uncertainty band than we have seen with ACC teams.
If I want a daily update, I go with the Dance Card since math doesn’t have a memory.
The win really helps WF on the Dance Card but didn’t make a big jump in RPI rankings. Syracuse hangs close. GT/Clemson not looking too good.
Forget about expanding from 68
I remember the year that the possibility of expanding the NCAAT to 96 teams got kicked around. I took the Dance Card’s list as an easy way to pick the sorts of teams that would end up in an over-expanded NCAAT. If anyone doubts BJD’s conclusion, take a look here:
The Extra 31 (Who Would Have Made If It Was A 96 Team Tournament)
Just curious but how could it have been worse than Sid?
BJD nailed this one. At least Sidney could recruit.
GT jumps up 10 spots on The Dance Card with a home win over Pitt. A jump that big from a mediocre win appears to support the conclusion that the Bubble is extremely weak this year.
(But it seems like someone proclaims that the Bubble is weak every year.)
Not all hires that look good on paper end up turning out that way. Shrugs.
Exactly. Obviously I want a winning coach to come out of our current search. But first, I want a coach that looks good on paper. Then I want him to win. Though it’s important to acknowledge that we won’t know if we got a Bennett or a Gillen for some time after the press conference.
But when you start out with one that doesn’t even look good on paper, then the odds of a miraculous outcome are mighty slim.
National Views:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
9 ACC teams in their bracket (8 obvious + Syracuse)
“Work left to do” – WF, SYR, GT
Lunardi moves UM to lock status and says VT “should be in”. Interesting discussions about the rest of the ACC contenders/pretenders all with “work left to do”. Which basically lines up with our discussion here.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/bubble-watch
9 ACC teams in their bracket. They have WF as “last four in” and Syracuse in “first four out”.
CBS breaks their bubble down differently than ESPN.
“In for Now” – no ACC teams
“On the Fence” – WF and SYR
“Work to Do” – no ACC teamsBoth have written off Clemson and Pitt…though it took much longer than it took me. ESPN gives GT a paragraph and CBS doesn’t mention them (that I could see).
Clemson plays State and BC this week at home. I wonder if a 2-0 week would get Clemson some ink?
Something that confuses me is that UCLA, Indiana, etc are touted as better coaching destinations and that it is too tough to win at State. But if it’s so easy to win at these other locations, why have they fired so many coaches since Wooden/Knight? Why did Doh only last three years at UNC?
Lunardi points out this article on ncaa.com
With an automatic bid available to only 32 teams in the NCAA tournament, the 36 schools left jockeying for open spots need as many wins, and as many quality wins, as possible. Several teams waiting to hear their name called on Selection Sunday this year will have at least 10 losses. Some will have even more.
The most losses any at-large team in the tournament ever had is 14, which has happened 11 times (five in 2011 alone). NCAA.com takes a look at those 11 clubs and points out a few this year that could be in the tournament’s double-digit loss boat … if they’re lucky:
Who knew the ncaa put up blog entries?
Lunardi has some interesting thoughts on teams with losing conference records.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
Still, you can understand why the sub.-500 conference record maxim exists: Teams like these simply don’t get into the NCAA tournament that often. Whether via correlation or causation, the precedent seems clear.
Meanwhile, one way or the other, the 2017 NCAA tournament has 32 at-large spots to fill. Something is going to give. Stay tuned.
Agreed.
The teams that had a chance at making things interesting failed big time as soon as they left home…even against the bottom of the conference. Except of course, both Miami and VT stepped up. But they’ve done so well that they’re almost locked into the NCAAT and thus less interesting to follow.
All of this shows up in the RPI Table under the record over the previous 12 games. VT and Miami have winning records. WF and SYR are 6-6 and everyone below that has losing records. The college season is just long enough to mostly separate the contenders from the pretenders.
If power teams with records slightly over 0.500 get selected over mid-majors with gaudy records with few/no good wins (real mid-majors and not low-majors)…then the post-selection squealing might become deafening.
I am just curious – Henderson has applied for a 6th year, but all along the “experts” have said he would not be granted a 6th year due to transfer.
…. Why the inconsistencies?
As far as I know, the NCAA has been consistent. Lose two years to injury, get a 6th year. Transfer and then get hurt, no 6th year. If you have a contrary example, I would love to read about it.
Keatts may turn out to be a great hire for someone. But his resume up to this point reminds me too much of Sendek’s at Miami of Ohio. Ignoring the shudder that just went down my spine, Keatts’ resume is not unimpressive, it’s just incomplete at this point.
Regarding Cronin – you do see a steady improvement.
Unless you look at NCAAT performance.
You wonder if he could do more with, well, more.
That’s the multi-million dollar question. But there was nothing in K’s tenure at West Point that would lead you to expect him to become the GOAT at Duke.
Here’s a sad thought: On paper, Cronin would look like a better hire than the last several.
I don’t see Cronin as “can’t miss”. From wiki:
Let’s speculate.
Why? Did anyone expect the Martin twins to transfer?
The best case scenario will be that the new hire will be good enough to keep those in Raleigh that don’t want to go pro. I hope that it’s not a total rebuild. But it’s far from certain.
Indiana could and likely WOULD also offer him the $5-6M per year he’s likely expecting.
For context, this article from a year ago says that Crean was #8 nationally and Marshall #9 among those coaches in the NCAAT:
http://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/salaries/mens-basketball/coach/
That article is different than a lot of similar ones because it makes an attempt to account for bonuses. But it’s not like we really KNOW what anyone is making. If you scroll down the usatoday list, it has Archie listed at $700k. But this article says that Archie moved north of $1M in 2014:
http://www.mydaytondailynews.com/news/miller-highest-paid-coach-atlantic/2f8Jru3hw6UF6JAZzehtgP/
Note that the Dayton article was based on university tax forms which should be much more reliable than most reports.
I’d actually be surprised if Marshall wasn’t interested. I don’t think it’s as high at may have been in years past. But I’ve said it repeatedly, he wanted the job twice.
I have no problem believing he wanted to move from Winthrop when Sendek fled to the desert. But depending what rumors you believe, one of them was that Marshall walked away last time when he found out Shaka was our #1 choice. I have no idea how he feels about State/DY now.
If Marshall wants to avoid a rebuild….The amount of rebuilding needed at State is not going to be known for a while.
On topic, I think we as a fan base have kind of zeroed in on grouping candidates:
1a) Miller
1b) Marshall3a) Wade
3b) Keatts4) Other
Is there a tier 2 in there? Are guys like Cronin and Holtsmann actually in play?
Since we’re just piling opinions, I would be shocked in Marshall was interested. Also, I’m not sure that he would be worth what it would take to pry him away from his current gravy train. From the last list of published coaching salaries, I’m not sure that anyone in the ACC other than K is making more than he’s getting now. Plus he’s under a lot less pressure/competition at Scary Wheat than he would be at any ACC job.
So the only way I see Marshall leaving is if his ego has started making decisions. And if that’s the case, it wouldn’t shock me if he hangs around until Crean is let go at Indiana; because that seems inevitable. Four NCAAT appearances in 9 years maxing out with 2 S-16’s is not getting it done. I don’t know how hot Crean’s seat currently is, but it has to be getting warm. Indiana basketball wiki article:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_Hoosiers_men%27s_basketball
The only person that can answer your Tier 2 question is DY because we don’t know if anyone has caught her eye. Also, we don’t know who might be looking for a switch like TOB was when he left BC. That’s why you hire a search firm, so that those level of inquiries can go both ways.
I like BJD’s “win a conference championship as a demonstration of success”
Someone may have come up with it first, but BJD has been fairly consistent with what it takes to be considered a success at NC State. An average year should be a NCAAT bid. Poor year is the NIT and can be accepted from time to time. But a coach absolutely must have some peaks along the way – ACC regular season champions, ACCT champions, or Final Four.
Maybe I should say, “preferably a Final Four”. Look up Gene Keady’s career stats some time. I don’t want his doppelganger at State.
