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Do to an unusually long out-of-town job assignment, I’ve watched less college football this year than any in recent memory. I watched most of the State games on ESPN replay or youtube and haven’t seen much of anyone else. So I put together a comparison of key stats to see why the gamblers have WF and State essentially even (key advantages highlighted):
http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/NCSU-vs-WF.jpg
Ignoring the fact that SOS can drastically skew the various stat rankings, we can see that:
– Both offenses are far better than their respective defense, with WF’s offense slightly ahead of State’s.
– Neither defense is especially good, but State’s >> WF.
– Both passing defenses are essentially the same…and they both suck. (But not State 2003 bad, ie ranked 100+)
– State’s red zone offense is especially horrendous.
– Hines is obviously far better kickoff/punt returner than his WF counterpart.
– FG kicking doesn’t show up on these stats, but I figure that WF has to have an advantage here.
– I suspect that WF’s run defense directly leads to their poor Time of Possession.
– The two teams are essentially even on turnover margin. So combine that with the defensive struggles, neither team can afford to start turning the ball over.When there is a large mismatch between the rankings of total offense/defense and scoring offense/defense, then it’s usually enlightening to dig a little deeper.
For State, I suspect that their pathetic red zone offense explains the ranking difference between total and scoring offense.
For WF, their total defense ranks far worse than their scoring defense. Turnover margin might explain some of that difference.
Interestingly, States turnover margin is slightly better that WF’s and yet their scoring defense is ranked only slightly better than their total defense. This might be due to State’s horrendous 3rd down conversion defense or it could be related to the fact that at the weak end of the rankings it’s easier to jump up the standings than it is once you get towards the middle portion of FBS.
Both passing offenses are pretty good and both passing defenses suck. This could be a high scoring game. If State can consistently pound the ball on the ground, they might be able to wear down the already poor WF defense and gain an advantage there.
game time against the Baptists is 7:30pm…
I think it’s on ESPNU
From what I’m seeing we’ll be bottom 25% of the ACC this year.
I didn’t need to see anything to reach that conclusion…Too many losses from a bad team combined with no superstars coming in.
Freeman, Abu, and Markell is not exactly leaving the cupboard bare,
Losing the top three scorers off of a bad team is most certainly a bare cupboard.
We’re going to get blown out of the gym a lot this year
We don’t have the shooters to rely on the three ball
I only saw the second half, but I wasn’t impressed with the half court offense. Hopefully things will improve when Abu gets back.
Watching this game I am thinking it will be a long year.
When a bad team loses its top three scorers, the next year is nearly always going to be a long one.
Ya’ll like the new look?
Check back in two months. It’s hard to draw meaningful conclusions after playing a truly bad team.
Does anyone know how many scholarship players we have eligible this year?
Too lazy to look, but 10 or 11.
Thanks. I tried counting white jerseys in the huddle and only came up with 8 and Abu in the back.
I don’t expect much of a ballgame
This is one of the few times that a State fan’s expectations are realized.
It’s rare that State is winning a game and I am bored. I hope that this doesn’t signal a return to the OOC schedules from the Herbster and Lowe.
Saturday will tell us a lot.
True, but then there is alot to learn every Saturday.
State’s four ACC wins have come against:
– FSU (3-4)
– ‘Cuse (2-3)
– L’ville (2-4)
– Pitt (2-3)Remaining schedule:
– BC (3-3)
– WF (2-3)
– UNC (0-6)It’s time to see where State really sits in the conference.
6-2 would be the best conference record in 24 years.
I was looking at this earlier this week. I would have bet on one of Sheridan’s teams, but MOC had the last two loss ACC season for State. You have to go back to 1979 for the last one-loss ACC record.
Our defense is playing well below anyone’s expectations.
I had no expectations for the defense as a whole. I’ve seen the scenario of good DL and poor secondary before. That year (PR’s senior year) taught me that a defense with gaping holes is not going to be all that good.
The wife and I are huddled under an umbrella in the rain at the beach. Between the weather and the football….at least the beer is cold.
Defensive line rankings
https://athlonsports.com/college-football/college-footballs-top-50-defensive-lines-2017Clemson, FSU, and NCSU all in Top10
I can’t locate a site for this but I have heard the Pack’s O-line is ranked in the top 30 by Athlon.
#24 per:
https://athlonsports.com/college-football/college-footballs-top-50-offensive-lines-2017
Others of interest:
#3 – Clemson
#9 – ND
#14 – Pitt
#30 – FSUStacked with experience and headlined by an NFL first-round prospect in Bradley Chubb, the Wolfpack’s front four could be the best symbol of the program’s steady maturation under fifth-year coach Dave Doeren. And so much of the defense’s success in 2017 will depend on how well that unit stuffs the run and hits quarterbacks in the backfield.
you really need 5 conference wins and that is something that we’ve only managed 4 times since Sheridan said adieu.
That’s as sad a commentary on Pack football as any I’ve ever read.
Sam Hunt, UNCW phenom CJ Bryce, and the electric Devon Daniels from Utah. If transfers counted, it would be a top 25 class easily.
Are these players available for the upcoming season?
Retitled this thread to serve as a repository for articles of interest. Hold on….this is slow going as I hold my nose while posting three links from Dave Glenn:
2 reason why NC State can expect big things from Airius Moore in 2017:
2 reason why NC State can expect big things from Airius Moore in 2017
Audio interview with Bradley Chubb
Bradley Chubb on NC State: “The sky is the limit for this team”
Can Stephen Louis, Kelvin Harmon become the ACC’s best pair of wide receivers?
Can Stephen Louis, Kelvin Harmon become the ACC’s best pair of wide receivers?
And we have absolutely no idea how TOB would have done with another year.
I disagree. While its true that we don’t know if TOB would have won 2 games or 4….you would have to be blind to think that DD’s first season was ever going to be anything other than an unmitigated disaster regardless of who the coach was.
I don’t know what people said about Sendek’s teams
Pretty much exactly what you are saying about last year’s football team….year after year. The bottom line remained the same….whatever happened wasn’t Sendek’s fault without ever discussing exactly what Sendek was supposed to be responsible for. However, it’s only fair to point out that story line also included the statement or insinuation that Sendek was good enough for State….and you’ve never claimed that DD’s results to date were “good enough”.
There’s a fine line between an explanation and an excuse. Over enough time, luck evens out and all attempts at explanations are actually just more excuses. Sendek clearly reached the “enough time” point and if DD isn’t there yet, he’s rapidly approaching it.
We like to say that Doeren is incompetent but like Hale said, but for a decent kicker State could have been 10-2 in 2016.
People made excuses about Sendek’s teams for years. Close doesn’t count for much in most sports…you either win or you don’t.
