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‘Foose…always gettin’ it.
Va is probably gonna slice my pears, but he sees it, too.
In fact,and Va,close your eyes, I think the site should drop the EI’m lost.
When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?
John Maynard KeynesWe watch the games because we’re looking for new information.
If you’re looking to have smoke blown up your skirt, you’ll be sorely disappointed with this place.
And I think Va, being the confirmed stats nerd that he is, was more keying on the “that nobody reads” part.
I’ve been called a lot of things, but that might have been my first “nobody”.
There’s no sport like baseball for stats.I’d want the Pack to finish in 7th.
I put the 5-10 seeds in the order that I expected them to finish, but didn’t really pay a lot of attention to where State sits. Since Clemson has the tie-breaker and a one game lead over State, the six seed seems unlikely. Likewise, State has the tiebreaker over both UMD and FSU which should put State in the 7 seed.
Miami now has a 1/2 game lead over ND for the 10th seed. But they have a 3-game road stretch coming up against Virginia, State, and Clemson. It seems unlikely that Miami could catch UMD or FSU to avoid Wed in the ACCT.
I’m not sure if State didn’t get blown by SYR because of match-ups or if it was just one of those days.
State has looked so bad so many times, that it’s hard to be optimistic about the remainder of the year. The math and history says that there is still a chance to make the NCAAT. The eye test tells a different story.
against a team we could realistically beat
Are you sure that there will be any of those on Friday in the ACCT?
Guys, I really think we’ve GOTT to win the ACCT to sway the selection committee.
You either missed or have forgotten the Herb years,
no – the low/mid-majors don’t get too many bids.
This is one thing that we’ve always disagreed on. In the “king for a day” scenario, I would move the bottom 12-16 conferences to some other designation and give them the NIT to fill in its entirety. Appy St got a lot of good attention by winning the I-AA championship several times and I would gladly do the same thing for small basketball programs.
I think 4-1 and 2-1 in ACCT would be.
In the unlikely chance that State could do this, I think that an at=large bid would be guaranteed and also that the opponent on Friday wouldn’t matter.
The most likely scenarios have Pitt in the 4-6 seed which means that they wouldn’t be State’s opponent. Syracuse, Duke, UVA, or UNC would all be a good enough win.
Its not mind blowing to think of us winning 4 of our next 5 and going 1-1 in the tourney which would place us on that bubble
We have different definitions of mind blowing. In any event, a win against Pitt and 1-1 in the ACCT probably wouldn’t be enough.
You could increase the data set by including more seasons. But don’t go back into the Lowe era…no one wants to revisit that data. (On second thought, a statistical inflection point after the Hess tribute would be very, very interesting.)
What site are you using to get the data?
statsheet.com says that Karl Hess has called less than 3 State games this year. Interesting.
Note that I didn’t say that there was a chance. I merely stated what needed to happen.
EDIT
Sorry, I lied. I forgot about attempting to be cute on the RPI graph.For Luckie, a ACC “in conference” game involving NC State this season results in 4 more fouls per game than his other ACC “in conference” games.
I don’t see how this is significant unless you can prove that all teams commit about the same number of fouls. But this snippet from your first post could be more significant.
In the 4 ACC games that Luckie called, NC State had 82 fouls called against it versus the opponents’ 73. In all other ACC games, NC State has had 155 fouls called against 177 for opponents.
State was also 1-3 in those ACC games called by Luckie. Did State foul more because they were trying to catch up in the losses? Or were they losing because of Luckie?
I would love to prove a bias in the ACC officiating. But I don’t think that it will be as easy to prove as a lot of people think.
I reject that stat trend, simply because it, indeed, doesn’t tell you whose whistle is tooting.
I think that you could work around this if you had enough data. But Luckie only called 5 State games.
I’m not high on FT comparisons
I agree. The issue here can not be addressed with numbers. The real issue is incorrect calls (block vs charge), missed fouls, and phantom fouls. The answers to those issues can’t be found on a stat line anywhere.
However, there are incidents that lead me to dread certain officials. The “KH” on the shoes is very telling (Luckie). The Corchiani/Gugglioti incident is telling (Hess). The technical foul on the bench for the water boy wiping off the court during the ACCT is very telling (2004 vs UMD – somebody help me with the name). These all suggest frames of mind that are inconsistent with unbiased officiating.
Forgot one hope
You have to hope that the 4-year kid stays around instead of transferring for immediate playing time.
Maryland won a National Championship…
They did decline some. It’s a hard business.In other words, there is no such thing as building for long-term success. You have to have great recruiting every year and then hope for the right mix to have some great teams. (The select few can stop at “great recruiting every year”.)
BJD always says that hope is not a plan, but in this instance you don’t have any choice (other than the select few). You either hope that you can coach up some kids, you hope that you found some diamonds in the rough (like Dixon and Blake), you hope that your top kids stay around long enough to accomplish something, or you hope your freshman can play beyond their years.
But, who knows, it’s all about TV money isn’t it?
Good point and it especially applies to the Wed games. What else is ESPN going to broadcast that would get more viewers?
Here’s the format I would have used:
– Give the #1 seed a bye until Friday
– On Wed #2-#4 play #13-#15 with winners getting Thursday off.
– On Thurs, #5-#12 play.
– Quarters thru Finals stay the same.I’ll bet that my format would get more viewers on Wed than the format chosen.
Having quality 4 year players consistently on the team means you can build for long term success.
How did that work for Gary Williams?
We have different definitions of “sure”. The selection process is well-known and easily predicted. The only suspense on Sunday night is over the last few at-large bids (and of course seeding).
If a team is not in before the ACCT the only way to insure a bid is to win it all.
Herb proved that this wasn’t true a decade ago.
The ACC is about the 5th toughest conference this year.
There is no thing as “building for long-term success”. Between the new trend of quick transfers when you don’t play and leaving for the NBA as soon as possible, there is no way to build for long term success.
Far from an aberration, this is consistent with what we’ve seen most of the year.
I think we know which game was an aberration.
