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I’m not sure if this will help bill or not….but how many times in the last 10 years have you been excited to vote for a candidate? For me the answer is “not many”.
Generally, I end up voting for what I perceive is the lesser of two evils. Counting mid-term elections, this is the fourth time that I’ve voted against Obama.
Dick Sheridan’s game against ECU in the Peach Bowl forever turned me against soft zone defenses. I literally felt nauseous before TOB ever coached a game when he said he preferred to wait on the other team to make mistakes on offense. I would rather go down swinging with an aggressive defense than to die the death of a thousand cuts from a passive one.
That last line about sums up what I expect to happen on Sat….4-6 yds per play for the 5-6 minutes it takes to score a TD. Except for fourth and long, I expect to see GT use all four downs anytime they are near or past mid-field.
The only stat I would argue for is the Take-a-ways vs. Give-a-ways as this stat seems one of the most important — kind of like the +/- in hockey.
Or you could use “Turnover Margin” which is already calculated and listed.
But I’m glad that you brought this up. Occasionally you can find teams where the scoring offense is ranked much higher than the total offense. TO Margin is the first place that I look to see where the points are coming from.
Several years ago, UNC had an offense that was constantly being fed by opponent’s turnovers. But when they ran up against Russell Wilson, the turnovers weren’t there and State beat UNC handily.
Conference versus national rankings is an interesting discussion. You could argue this one in circles for days. The biggest fallacy with either ranking is that the OOC games vary greatly in difficulty and thus can easily skew the predictive value of either ranking. Since State’s OOC schedule was so weak, it was easy to see that State’s ranking would be artificially inflated. Thus we cycle back to my “average” offense ranking being too generous.
In the days of acceptable conference sizes (12 teams or less), you could go to websites that ranked the various stats based only on conference games. If proper adjustment was made for teams played, you could get a better idea of where State stood in the conference. But no more. So the difference between conference or national stats is not worth arguing about. But even if you care deeply about one over the other, WV lists both for us.
the groupings of Offense/Defense and the Sacks, TFL’s and TO’s +/- would IMO be useful in evaluating the stats.
Scoring
Offense: 28.7 (9, 70)
Defense: 27.6 (13, 75)I like having the top level stats (rushing, passing, total, scoring) all together for one unit. Any mismatch in these stats shows that deeper evaluation is required. For instance, an offense that has trouble in the red zone would have a higher ranking in total offense versus scoring offense. You could then check the redzone (and maybe third down stats) to confirm your initial thoughts.
I don’t see the value in comparing State’s offense to State’s defense in any particular category. Note that I’m not arguing, I just don’t see how you intend to use these comparisons.
The sudden and strange support for State’s obviously weak defense reminds me of what was said after I called State’s offense “average” after the Clemson game. (Note that the offense hasn’t even lived up to my low evaluation since then.) I would love to be wrong about State’s defense come Sat. But I don’t think that I am.
The key to stopping GT’s defense is penetration by the DL. IF they can get through GT’s OL as easily as they got through the ‘Cuse, then State might have a chance to win without hoping for GT fumbles. If State doesn’t get penetration or fumbles, then I’ll probably be doing something else by 1:30pm.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we held them in the 17 to 24 point range
Considering that GT has scored more than this against every ACC opponent, I would be shocked.
I just did a quick check on GT’s stats. Their defense sucks as bad as State’s and their offense is much better. Both teams are relatively low on turnovers and penalties.
Having watched Chris Weinke set the ACC record of 6(?) interceptions in a single game for MOC’s biggest win, then never say never. But it’s hard for me to feel very optimistic (shocking huh?)
It must be November as the sweet smell of over expectations are in the air.
ROTF LMAO
Ain’t that the truth.
I hate jumping ahead of WV with a stat discussion, but State ranks 121 out of 125 (nationally) on 3rd down defense and 73rd on rushing defense. Combine those numbers with State’s disappearing scoring offense and I’m not filled with confidence.
how do we beat Georgia Tech?
Great offense and some timely fumbles by GT. Other than that, it’s likely to be a long afternoon.
The players change (and the returners hopefully improve) almost every year, but the coaching staff hasn’t. Therefore I’ll join the crowd that doesn’t expect significant defensive improvement…but would be happy to see it.
Whether or not the coaches spend “enough” time or place a “high” emphasis on defense is a meaningless distinction. The results suck and that has to change if State is going to go further in the NCAAT than it has over the last 20+ years.
I also think we finish in the 5-7 range, maybe with a 6 seed in the NCAAT. That’s an ideal platform to do some real March damage!
Who are you and what have you done with BJD? I’m not nearly that optimistic and BJD is usually even more pessimistic than me.
All I want for Christmas is for UNC to receive the double whammy — the Death Penalty in sports paired with a significant knock on their academic standing.
– If you could show that the athletic dept was behind the scam, then this would be a real possibility.
– If you could show that certain coaches knew and covered it up, then it would at least be a possibility (but but probably not high probability) for those sports.
– If you don’t tie the academic scam to the athletic dept, then there is no chance of a death penalty.I would also contend that LOIC is really based on the “should have known” argument.
I disagree with this too. Whether or not the athletic dept “knew”, fraudulent grades were given out by the university. If academic fraud isn’t “out of control”, then I don’t know what is.
To me, this a 1000x worse than Wiley doing papers for the football team.
Valvano should have known. He said he did not. He paid with his job.
Roy also should have known. He says he did not. He should also pay with his job.These two things are completely different. The shoes/tickets were given to the players by the NCSU athletic dept. If the athletic dept didn’t keep track of what happened after that, who would? UNC’s issue is institutionalized academic fraud. Why should the athletic dept be responsible for insuring that the grades/courses are legitimate? Why shouldn’t the academic administration be responsible for that?
Did Roy know? Of course he did. Why else would he have moved his players out of the sham classes? But believing that he knew and proving it are two completely different things. To fire Roy, you have to prove that he knew and thus covered up NCAA violations.
Here’s another one:
Title:19.1.1 – Severe Breach of Conduct (Level I Violation).
A severe breach of conduct is one or more violations that seriously undermine or threaten the integrity of the NCAA Collegiate Model, as set forth in the constitution and bylaws, including any violation that provides or is intended to provide a substantial or extensive recruiting, competitive or other advantage, or a substantial or extensive impermissible benefit. Among other examples, the following, in appropriate circumstances, may constitute a severe breach of conduct: (Adopted: 10/30/12 effective 8/1/13, Revised: 7/31/14)
(a) Lack of institutional control;
(b) Academic misconduct;
.aspx)
