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I just didn’t realize the road games really matter that much.
I’m not sure what this means in the context of your earlier comment. Road wins do contribute alot more to positive RPI improvement than home wins, but I’m just not sure where your confusion lies.
Temple is 3-4 in R/N games but that would work out to 4.2-2.4, essentially going from an actual 43% win to a factored 64% win.
The biggest effect of weighting home/road wins differently is to move teams at the top of mid-major conferences up relative to the teams in the middle of power conferences. Your example illustrates this effect nicely.
But as the season wears on, many mid-majors will see their RPI ranking drop as their weaker conference SOS tends to drag down their ranking. That’s one of many reasons not to get too wrapped up in RPI early in the season…and especially why you shouldn’t get too worked up over how the RPI ranking changes from game to game.
It’s extremely important to understand the difference between the RPI calc and the ranking. A team’s ranking is affected by how it does, how its opponents do, how the opponents’ opponents do, how the teams around you in the ranking do AND how close the teams around you are bunched together. Alot of people tend to overlook those last two components when analyzing game to game changes.
I’m happy to let someone else do the mind-numbing math and just see where the results put State relative to the NCAAT. But the basic rules stay the same…winning is always good, losing is always bad….it’s just the magnitude of the “good” or “bad” that changes based on your opponent and game location.
The original question was stupid (would Charles donate $ so that Auburn could buy a recruit?) and his answer probably veered far afield from what was expected. (My guess is that they wanted Charles to say something about universities paying college players.) But his answer illustrates why the NCAA will absolutely have to do something meaningful to UNC.
Wasn’t it just two years ago that UConn had to sit out the NCAAT because of APR? So you have two universities, one of which (supposedly) gave players the grades they earned while another university hands out grades to keep players eligible. To date, the more honest university was penalized.
The potential problem is that the NCAA has to track bogus grades back to specific players in specific classes and specific years. I find it extremely unlikely that they will automatically assume that every individual study or paper class in AFAM was bogus and rule accordingly. So we’ll just have to wait and see exactly how much dirt the NCAA finds.
I know there are a lot of other factors, but it appears that if we traded the Pitt win for the Wofford loss (Wofford’s at 29 right now), we’d be setting 15 spots better in the RPI right now.
Not true and not even close.
Trading a home win for a home loss would net you the exact same RPI and thus probably the same RPI ranking…regardless of the teams you try to switch results between.
But in this hypothetical world of yours, if the team you take a win away from was ranked just above State, then State could potentially move up one spot in the rankings.
George Will “The great thing about being a pessimist is that one is constantly being pleasantly surprised or proven right.”
A favorite quote of mine that I posted on my office door years ago.
Another one of my favorites that has nothing do with BB, but comes up frequently in life:
Never attribute to malice those things easily explained by incompetence.
Napoleon (supposedly)And I appreciate posters like chop that read the entries and point out stuff that I missed. It was also nice that no on trotted out the 20 win nonsense for making the NCAAT.
From day one Herb never showed me anything that I liked as a coach or person.
When Herb took his first team to the finals of the ACC tourney, I thought that State had made a great hire. Unfortunately, I was wrong.
Then… if you still want to go for a new Coach…
Reach deep in your pockets and put your money on Dr. Debbie’s desk…
and go for it…After the last coaching search, I’m not convinced that State (or maybe Debbie) can hire a big name basketball coach. It seemed to me that there was more interest in coaching State’s FB team than its BB team.
Somebody please provide some incite to bball recruiting for next season. We have landed exactly no one, so far. I know who the targets are but I have no idea where we stand. Write an article…start a blog. Somebody talk.
If there was something to say, wouldn’t the sites that specialize in recruiting already have the info up?
or if VaWolf or anyone puts up an RPI / OOC review thread
Waiting on UC game to complete the preseason.
Va…They seriously contended with them this year.
They were only within 2 TD’s in one of the conference losses.
I don’t consider that contending. YMMVState beat the lucky sperm club (wake forest), Syracuse, and the tar holes; hardly the basis to proclaim a resurgence of State’s fortunes. Close as a pubic to Monica’s lips, the Pack was awful close to dropping a game it had in hand the other night.
How can you not be thrilled with 8 wins, a beat down of UNC in Chapel Hill, and a bowl win? You would have to be looking for reasons to complain about those results after a 3-win season.
So while I wouldn’t have worded it exactly like McCallum, I mostly agree with his take. The Sagarain rankings for State’s last four wins were against:
101 – Syracuse
128 – Wake Forest
78 – UNC
61 – UCFThose wins simply are not enough for me to start make grossly optimistic claims about next year. (Shocking huh?) State was only 3-5 in conference play with all five losses coming at 12 points or greater (with several embarrassing ones as well). So while I’m extremely happy for the results this year, I see no reason to think that State will seriously contend with the top of the conference next year.
Sagarin Rankings:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2014/conference/I appreciate your updates on recruiting. I lack the enthusiasm to follow endless threads/tweets on the latest uttering from high school kids…but it’s nice to know who State is pursuing and who is seriously considering State.
Which half are we?
Good question. I would put them in the middle third, with a good chance of skipping Thursday in the ACCT. I generally save my first real look for Jan 1 when the preseason is wrapping up.
I’m leery of making too much of “good” stats against so-so competition. However, Purdue’s two 7-footers only gave them a 37-31 rebounding advantage and State was even with Wofford. We need to see how they perform against the top-half of the ACC, but this looks to be one of Gott’s better rebounding teams at State.
PS – the bottom half of the ACC sucks.
So what’s the common denominator in all this? Coaching.
Ding, Ding Ding….we have a winner!
If you’re anything like me, you’ll be glued to the TV during bowl season.
Personally, I wouldn’t go that far…but watching a no-name bowl ranks much higher on my TV viewing list than another “reality” or “talent” show.
Thanks for putting the list together.
Not every premature prediction turns out to be wrong…especially if you make enough of them. Unfortunally, the vast majority of optimistic predictions about State have turned out to be horribly wrong.
Oh my that seems like a bit of an over reaction to one game.
It happens after almost every good or bad game. Why stop now?
The real problem is that grading coaching performance on a scale relative to a talent deficiency from the previous regime is fraught with uncertainty. The other big mistake is predicting future wins based on good recruiting rankings. The bottom line is that State needs good recruiting and good coaching to achieve meaningful results. Time and the W/L record will eventually tell us all we need to know.
I couldn’t possibly count the number of time that I’ve been told on message boards that I wasn’t seeing the big picture and being overly pessimistic. State’s FB coach is finishing his 2nd season and the BB coach is starting his 4th after both replaced fired coaches. So it obviously wasn’t me that miss-called the big picture. Conclusions with meaningful data are always going to be more accurate that wishful thinking or premature predictions.
If memory serves, the big boosters wanted Pelini when the AD hired Bill Callahan. So when Callahan bombed, those boosters forced out the AD and then got Pelini.
So what have learned from watching all of this unfold?
Nebraska football coaches are expected to win big and Nebraska AD’s are expected to listen to the big boosters.PS…please don’t link the Troll (Doyell) even if he surprises us by proving not to be a total douche and hypocrite. 😉
Run about six minutes off the clock and get a TD
This
