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Thanks Trout. Both of those losses you mentioned were inexcusable:
– Coming out completely flat at home against Clemson
– Losing a game when you have the ball, four-point lead, and 1 minute left in the game.This required a lot of effort and is a ton of data. However, for really to be put into context we’d need to know how we compared to others and how gott compared to our other coaches…but I suspect jigs works for a living!
I’m not sure that a comparison to other programs over time would tell us anything more than you could get from looking at the W/L records and NCAAT results over the same time period. Really good teams win more close games than they lose, hold onto a lead once they have it, come back from a cold shooting streak, etc.
Note that State does not meet this definition of “really good”.
Our current coaching staff is as good as any in the league except maybe one…
I wouldn’t even know how to objectively evaluate this claim.
That’s easy….wins, losses, and major accomplishments.
Our current coaching staff is as good as any in the league except maybe one…
Oh how I wish there was evidence to support this ridiculous claim.
I expected this team to be significantly better than it is, as someone who likes MG (subjectively).
Hmmmmm
Last year, State was a one-man team and the MAN went to the NBA. If this year had turned into a dumpster fire, I wouldn’t have been surprised. But Lacey turned out to be as good as advertised (if not better) and the three freshmen are all contributing.
Of course, the magical and eye-popping improvement of the returning players that was forecast by some has not really materialized. But since these predictions come twice a year, every year and rarely come to pass; I’m not surprised.
There is an old article (last Aug) that lists the OOC opponents that have been booked into the future:
2016
Notre Dame, at ECU, Old Dominion, William & Maryhttp://www.gopack.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/080714aad.html
After witnessing DY’s handling of the TOB situation in football, I have no doubt she will let Gottfried ride off into the sunset if it comes to that.
One significant difference….she didn’t hire TOB. It will be interesting to see just how significant that difference is.
I haven’t had much hope for Pitt ever since they lost at home to Clemson. But they keep hanging around close enough to the bubble that they’re still worth tracking.
But according to this morning’s CBS numbers, they’ve dropped off the graph with a ranking of 86. They may slide back on after Wed/Thurs games, but at this point tracking them has more to do with completeness than any real chance at the NCAAT.
Nearly half-way through the conference schedule and Pitt only has one Top-100 win…against #85 KSU. In the race for the last spot on Wed, Pitt is 1/2 game behind Clemson and 1/2 game ahead of FSU.
PS – State is only 1/2 game ahead of Clemson.
State had a four-pt lead and the ball with about a minute to go in regulation. The officials may have impacted the game up until that point, but I can’t recall that they had an impact over the closing stretch. State simply didn’t make a decent play on either end of the court and let ND shoot about a dozen shots to tie the game. Losing the ND game is on the players and the coaches…not the refs.
This expanded, “new and improved ACC” just sucks for teams like us.
You didn’t present any evidence to support this claim. I can’t see how State’s schedule or the opponents can be blamed for any of the obvious shortcomings.
I just took a closer look at Syracuse’s conference schedule and added the following sentence to their writeup:
(Though it’s important to note that SYR’s overall ACC schedule was fairly weak playing Duke, Pitt, BC, and VT twice.)
So while the second half of their conference schedule is rather brutal, their post-season destination (NCAA vs NIT) won’t be a result of bad luck in the conference schedule.
I sure hope ND and Clemson’s ugly as shit basketball style don’t beat us twice on Wednesday evening.
I’ve been worried about that as well.
State’s schedule is easier in the second half of the season…but more of the games are on the road. So we’ll see which version of this State team comes out more often…the one that played Cincinnati or the one that played Duke.
I don’t dig into the stats like 1.21JW does, but it looks to me like all of the talk about improved defense was just that…more talk.
He already has 9 rotation players for next season: Barber, Lacey, the Martins, Henderson, Anya, Abu, Washington, and Freeman.
Dollars to doughnuts that they won’t all be back next year. Hasn’t happened yet, so I don’t look for this year to be any different.
The Dance Card site linked above has a 35 minute youtube video titled Analytics and the Dance Card..A method to the madness.
May have to watch that tonight.
If memory serves, they only update the Dance Card weekly until the regular season starts to wind down.
I haven’t studied seeding alot, but during the Herb years I looked at about six years worth of data and showed a linear correlation between RPI ranking and seeding. I intended to update and refine the correlation, but I read on Palm’s old site that about 75% of the teams are seeded within one spot of RPI/4 (rounded up). That observation was good enough for me.
One thing that I have noticed is that a high finish in the regular season conference standings will produce a nice bump in seeding. During the time frame that I examined, a Pac10 team finished second and got a huge jump in seeding. One of Dave Leito’s UVA teams tied for first place in the regular season and got a nice bump. Herb’s best NC State team finished at #17, but got a 3 seed….presumably because of finishing second in the ACC regular season.
Doing “well” in the conference tournament doesn’t seem to garner much of a seeding bump. I specifically remember a BC team that made it to the finals, but was seeded more or less in line with their RPI. I’ve never looked at a correlation between conference champs, their RPI, and seeding…and don’t expect that I will while I’m still working for a living.
I would guess that people are seeding ND high because of their rankings in the polls and overall school popularity. But if you look at Louisville last year, there was much media whining about their seed…but their seed fell in line with their resume. I expect that in the end, ND’s seed will match their resume.
or the most part, you should safely be in but I’m sure there are examples of top 40 teams being left out.
There have been several high majors left out in the 35-40 range, but not very many over the years that I’ve been looking at. Both were right around .500 in conference play and accomplished nothing remarkable in their conference tourney.
It seems like a team in the MVC got left out at #26 with four other MVC teams getting into the tourney that same year. BTW, the four MVC teams that got into the tourney made the semi-finals of the MVC tourney, while #26 didn’t make the semi’s or the NCAAT.
I set the goal for this team as getting a 6 seed in the dance. It’s a challenging, even difficult goal, but one that we can can plausibly achieve.
We need to discuss the meaning of “plausible”. I don’t see this team getting a Top 25 RPI ranking which is about what you would need. In any event, it should be an interesting season to watch unfold.
We play both Duke and Miami only once each IIRC, so it’s basically a wash either way as far as RPI.
This is the correct long-term view. But the change from yesterday to today was negative for State. Not much of a change (ranking 32->33, SOS still 7), but still a change.
When a team you play twice is matched up against a team that you play only once, it is better if your home/home opponent wins. Once again it doesn’t make a lot of difference, so I’m still going to pull against UNC.
Here’s the season according to Sagarin
Final Ranking – 48
SOS – 63 (12th in ACC)Wins
Presb – 166
USF – 147
WF – 125
ODU – 116
SYR – 97
UNC – 77
Ga South – 63
UCF – 58Losses
BC – 44
L’ville – 30
FSU – 16
Clemson – 13
GT – 12And my prediction is not even gonna come close hahaha.
Note that I remembered who had made the prediction and was trying to protect the identity of the “not so innocent”. While I’m in full disclosure mode…I was pretty sure what would happen in the early part of the ACC schedule, but haven’t ever looked at what happens over the course of the entire conference schedule. Hopefully, it will be interesting to watch.
Early enrollees can count against either year…assuming that you didn’t use all of the total or annual scholarships for the current school year.
what flavor of Hubba Bubba we have each season.
The “Herble” would also work for State fans…but he isn’t faring quite as well in the desert. (Though he appears to be eating well.)
