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Timely article from N&O
Here’s what respected NCAA bracket projector Jerry Palm of CBS Sports wrote about Kansas State this week while excluding the Wildcats from his bracket:
“The Wildcats have one of the 20 worst non-conference schedules in Division I. Teams get left out almost every season primarily because of a putrid non-conference slate. On top of that, KSU lost one of those games, at home to Tulsa, which is its only bad loss. Kansas State is going to have to do more than have a couple of home wins over competitive teams to make up for that. A lot more.”
Remember, Kansas State has a better overall record, better RPI and a better record against the top two quadrants and a worse non-conference schedule than N.C. State.
But if it’s the right kids who happens to be a probable one and done, you gotta take him.
Character always matters. Obviously it can be hard to judge the character of an 18 year old, but bad characters are not usually that difficult.
There’s a difference in recruiting someone who is one-and-done versus recruiting a team of one-and-doners like Kentucky. The chances of State being in the later category any time soon is essentially zero. But in the end, I agree with mat. I would go even further and say that you need that level of talent to move to the top of the ACC.
Even before last night’s game, teamrankings.com had State’s game at VT as the second toughest game left on State’s schedule (obviously behind Chapel Hell).
They only give State a 22% chance of winning in Blacksburg.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/nc-state-wolfpack/projections
Not as devastating as Clemson’s, but I forgot to mention it when I was doing this week’s update:
Notre Dame basketball is having a tough time with injuries, adding DJ Harvey to the list, who will miss four weeks with a bone bruise…
We saw what Harvey was capable of in his first career start against NC State. He found his rhythm shooting six-of-nine from the floor and three-of-four beyond the arc for 17 total points. The guard also pulled down three rebounds in the 30-point victory for the Irish.
https://slapthesign.com/2018/01/19/notre-dame-basketball-injuries-dj-harvey/
Thanks for the update on the Clemson injury
The Tigers knocked off Notre Dame for the first time ever on Saturday, but the euphoria from the 67-58 triumph at Littlejohn Coliseum was tempered by a late-game injury to senior forward Donte Grantham, who left the game with 10:54 remaining and didn’t return.
On Sunday, Coach Brad Brownell’s worst suspicions were confirmed when an MRI revealed that a torn ACL in Grantham’s right knee will effectively end his playing career at Clemson…
Grantham, who started 113 of 114 games at Clemson, ranked second on the team in scoring at 14.2 points per game and rebounding at 6.9 per game. He was shooting a career-best 56 percent from the floor, including 42 percent from 3-point range, and was a key reason that the Tigers are 16-3 overall and 5-2 in the Atlantic Coast Conference and bidding for their first NCAA Tournament berth since the 2010-11 season.
Miami will be a challenge. I honestly think they’ve got one of the best coaches in the ACC
Larranga took George Mason to the Final Four the same year that Sendek fled to the desert….and that’s all I’m going to say about that.
I don’t disagree… but the during the last 4-6 minutes, we dominated, especially on the ‘mental’ side of things…
I would go back and rewatch the last 5 minutes if the game had been against someone in the top half of the conference. WF made a lot of mistakes down the stretch…10 sec violation and several turnovers. I’m not sure if State dominated or if WF collapsed. Either way it was a win and I’ll take it.
Miami ranks nationally in the Top 10 in defense…both in opponent’s pts per game and in effective defense in Pomeroy’s rankings. State needs to do a lot better on offense than it did against UVA to beat Miami.
After the ND game I’d have sent you for drug testing if you’d predicted 3-3 in the league.
I’m pretty sure that this is the first time in the last 3 seasons where State has been .500 in conference several weeks into Jan.
Here’s something I never expected to see this year:
http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/First-Four.jpg
Captured screen shot from this take on bracketology
https://sports.yahoo.com/bracketology-villanova-holds-no-1-155721898.html
EDIT
I added a line to the Upcoming ACC Schedule section. The mid-week games don’t include any ACC games on Wednesday.
I’m thinking it’s our year to win a Championship!!
Not with losing 9 starters on defense.
there’s every reason to pull for the HOLES and Dook to lose every night.
That’s a given no matter what the math would say. Personally, I include ND in that group except when they’re playing one of the Blues.
VaWolf82 I don’t know home much time you put into your updates but it looks like a lot and is well done and appreciated. Thanks.
Thanks for the note.
This week’s was easy. There was only one game on Sunday night and the outcome was nearly a fore-gone conclusion. So I input Saturday’s numbers to see how it impacted the trend graphs. Then I put in my expected Sunday night results and made the ACC standings chart. Then I had all day to write the article while watching football and State’s game.
With three games next Sunday, it’s unlikely that the article will be up this soon.
Is it not generally true that the higher our ranking in the conference at Tourny time — the higher our RPI ?
To put that another way — the more we win and the more the upper division loses, the better chance we have of dancing ?
I’m not sure that you’ve said the same thing two different ways.
The more State wins, the higher the RPI ranking will be. Except when playing State, it won’t matter much who wins or loses in ACC play (with the exception of State’s four H/A opponents). As we saw last year with Syracuse (10-8) and WF (9-9), where you finish in the conference doesn’t directly impact your RPI OR your chances for an at-large bid.
State’s OOC schedule and conference schedule will clearly affect the RPI ranking. But those are what they are and there’s nothing anyone can do about them now. In the end, it always boils down to the same thing: Winning is always good and losing is always bad.
Don’t we want Duke and Clemson to keep winning as it helps our RPI?
If you’re thinking that we should pull for Duke/Clemson because State beat them, then that line of reasoning isn’t accurate. The results of the game against State are removed from the record when calculating your opponents’ winning percentage. So the results of the game have no impact on the opponents’ winning percentage portion of the RPI calculation.
Let’s suppose that State has WF and UNC at home in the same week. If State goes 1-1, there would be little difference in RPI ranking no matter which team State beat.
In ACC play, alot of the games are zero sum. When someone wins, then someone else lost…and we play the loser as well. Where it would make a difference is when one of State’s H/A opponents plays one of the 10 teams that State only plays once. In this instance, it would be slightly better for State’s H/A opponent to win.
So except for Highstick (and anyone else who despises Clemson), we want Clemson to win as much possible and we’re free to cheer whenever Duke loses.
Variations in RPI calcs.
I plotted CBS and ESPN’s RPI rankings to see how much difference there is between the two.
http://www.statefansnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/RPI-Ranking-Comparison.jpg
It’s a shame that State’s is one of the rankings with a large discrepancy…but for now, whatever ESPN has won’t affect our projections and conclusions.
The only thing in the “pending” folder that I found was something from an ECU fan from several years ago. I found two spam folders, I’ll look again for a second pending folder.
VaWolf — check the WordPress filters in the Admin panel please and see if you can release a post I made earlier this am…
thanks!I’m going to have to talk to someone about exactly where missing posts are shelved. I found a two-year old comment from an ECU fan that was “pending”, spam (alot of which were construction related), and nothing in trash. I’ll keep looking while we hope someone else knows where to look.
EDIT
Bill, I found a second spam folder that had a number of legitimate posts from long-time and frequent posters, but nothing from you today.So ESPN is either off, or they know a secret that everyone else doesn’t.
Back in Dec, ESPN was way off from CBS and realtimerpi but then they got much closer to the other on-line RPI values. As you’ve shown, ESPN is once again off in left field. In the past, I’ve looked at a handful of end-of-year numbers from ESPN and NCAA and found that ESPN is off the mark (but not as much as they are right now).
ESPN gives me a great summary of the whole conference which dramatically speeds up these weekly blog entries.This link shows why I’m using ESPN for the weekly updates:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/groupId/2Jerry Palm at CBS Sports used to run his own pay site and blog and he talked about some of the details that lead to differences in the calcs. Back then, Palm would track down differences between his calcs and the NCAA’s and contact the NCAA about them.
The only difference I remember him talking about were some differences between classifying a game as home/away/neutral. The example he gave was that Indiana playing in Indianapolis was considered neutral by the NCAA and he had included it as a home game. So Palm changed his calcs for this and others but reported that in some instances the NCAA had changed their inputs.
I say all of that to say that if I had to trust one of the daily update sites, I would pick CBS because of Palm’s attention to detail (while making the assumption that he is still as picky as he used to be.) I used to use CBS and manually create the summary table….which took a lot of time.
I’m hoping that ESPN will straighten their stuff out. If not, I’ll take a closer look at the end of the year to see how big the difference in various RPI calcs are and if these differences are affecting our analysis of the ACC bubble teams. But right now, you would reach the same conclusion for State no matter which RPI calc you used.
… same question, different way…
How do they filter out ‘media hype’, ‘name recognition’, call it “the blue filter…” ???
The polls are not included in RPI, Kenpom, Sagarin, ESPN’s BPI etc. So media hype, name recognition, etc have absolutely no effect on these different “measuring” systems.
How do they factor in “freshman wildcard” and the “one-and-done – maybe this team comes together, maybe it does not” factor ?
As far as I know, no one adds a wildcard factor for anything. It’s all points for, points against, SOS, etc.
^Sean Miller && Coach Rat might disagree…
State’s not the only team to upset either of those two.
It could just be that both are over rated right now.At this point in the season, I would put us in the category:
“Deadly as a Snake, on any given night…”
…and like a stuffed teddy bear on others.
It seems to me that something that might be overlooked is the fact that there are no zeros in this rankings game…
Every win is another team’s lose… so every game mathematically can be viewed as a +1 and -1…
That logic works in the ACC standings, but not in the RPI rankings. The 40% or so from the OOC schedule is always there and State’s OOC schedule is probably too big of a drag for this team to overcome. Hopefully you’re right and I’m wrong, but I just don’t see the team that got blown out with ND playing down two starters as having much hope for this year.
If you want predictive, go to kenpom.com. He plots out the projected records based on where every team is at the moment.
Is that behind a pay wall?
After the ND and Duke games, teamrankings.com moved State from 6 ACC wins to 6.6.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/nc-state-wolfpack/projections
