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It drives me nuts that we don’t.
Short drive?
I saw a lot of posts like yours during the Great Herb Debate. You chose to cast dispersion on a great piece of work after a game that State won…that they were SUPPOSED to win. How is that proof of anything?
Accusing someone of bias without any proof tells me that you have no info to support your emotional position. The conclusions reached in this very detailed analysis are supported by the RPI table I posted above as well as Gott’s career record. If you have any objective evidence to support your position, you should have presented it instead of making accusations.
There is a huge difference in hoping for State and Gott to succeed and believing that they will. Even though the past doesn’t always predict the future, it is all we have to go on.
Figures the only late game that is worth watching is the absolutely last game of the day. If this game was a blow-out, I would be out.
Here’s a quote that I’ve always thought should be adopted by more message board posters:
When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?
John Maynard KeynesWhere is the data that reflects whether a team just ran into a buzzsaw of a defense, or flatout farted its offense away?
Pretty much a judgement call…or that whole eye-of-the-beholder thing.
This was a comeback or a crash, depending on your point of view, but from the neutral bird’s eye, it looked more like a crash. LSU was 0 for its last 12, hitting its last field goal with 10:26 left in the game, and missed six consecutive free throws in the final three minutes. LSU stopped attacking the rim with gusto, settling for layups instead of going to the rack with authority, and that opened the door for the Wolfpack, who happily charged through it.
That said, credit NC State for staying with it. The Wolfpack trailed by 14 at the break and looked out of sync offensively for much of the first half and overwhelmed by the Tigers’ size and athleticism. But NC State ramped up its defense in the second half, limiting the Tigers to just 29 percent shooting, and systematically chipped into the lead.
But the bigger point is that one game…good or bad…doesn’t change any long-term conclusions….or the minds of those that have already made them up. I still remember one frequent poster that left in a huff because everyone was being mean to Lowe. Now they’re both gone.
A friend put this on my office door at work. Can you imagine?
Why do we still let Canada be a country?
Better beer?
By the end of 2006, nearly 90% of beer sales was of product brewed domestically under license from non-domestic corporations.[5] American beers brewed under license dominate much of the market, and as of 2008 Budweiser was the top selling brand with 13% of the market, followed by Coors Light with 12%. Molson Canadian and Labatt Blue, for decades the top-selling brands, now hold third and fourth place.[2]
This article ties the UNC case with the overall integrity/viability of the NCAA:
But VA – you admitted to being at least mildly and pleasantly surprised this year. It could be a taste of what is to come, or we could revert to the mean
I’m absolutely thrilled that this year didn’t turn into a bonfire. All of last year with the ACC Player of the Year, State had exactly one Top-25 win. This year, they beat Duke and UNC in the Dean Dome. Even if you had nothing else to go on, those two facts show unarguable improvement over last year.
So what led to the improvement? Options include:
– Trevor Lacey
– Improved output from returning players
– Gott
– Some combination of aboveThere is really no way for any of us to proportion credit for the improvement. If Gott’s coaching was a significant contributor, then the results will show up year after year. If not…
I think we already have a pretty good idea about Gott. Here’s to hoping that Years 5 and 6 will change my view.
What’s better at predicting the better team….heck, you might be able to look at the final ap poll too and see how close it is.
Everyone in Vegas would like better predictors too.
For me, the key point of 1.2JW’s work is that it provides solid basis for what a lot of people have said about Gott’s teams….the offense is good and the defense/rebounding definitely isn’t. While it takes no particular insight to reach those conclusions, the numbers presented in these three entries show just how far off the mark Gott’s teams have been.
As far as AP vs RPI….I did that in the days of the Great Herb Debate:
AP Top 10 > RPI Top 10
RPI 11-25 > AP 11-25My rationale went like this:
RPI will not tell you who is hottest (or coldest) at tournament time because it is averaging the entire season. But if you lose a few games, you will drop out of the AP Top 10 pretty quick. But the RPI does better at 11-25 because big-name teams can hang around in the AP Top 25 seemingly forever.I started to type something sarcastic, but your comment got me thinking. I’ve actually mixed two versions of the RPI calc in the same table. I wonder what the table would look like if I only used the “old” calc which values home/road wins/losses the same.
The net effect of the new RPI is to lower teams in the middle of power conferences and inflate the rankings of teams at the top of mid-majors. For instance, State’s RPI Ranking is 39 (CBS) but would be 30 (Dance Card) under the older formula.
Oh well, it’s a long time between March Madness and the first football game on Labor Day weekend. I’ll have to find some time this summer to see if there is anything worth looking at.
