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You’re right about apples and oranges. Howland had three final fours and four conference titles at UCLA. In other words, he produced far more than Gott ever has.
True but not relevant because the same issue would exist with anyone that State is looking to hire. If State were looking for a new coach (and we’re not), then Archie already has everything that State would want.
There are many posters on this site who are certain they know how good Archie will be. Just ask them.
If Gott retired or were fired today, I would be in favor of hiring Archie. I just don’t think he is the slam dunk that so many make him out to be.
Archie’s ceiling is unknown but Gott’s has pretty well been defined. If you’re happy with Gott’s results, then you would want to keep him. If you’re not happy with what has produced over his entire career, then you might be ready for a shot at greatness rather than more of the same.
EDIT:
Then there’s a third group that admits that he has done more than enough to suffer one bad year without getting a hot seat (where I think most State fans are).The discussion about Gott is really the Great Herb Debate all over again with one major exception. 1.21 JW did a great job outlining the deficiencies of Gott’s defensive “strategies” over his entire career. We never had a similar analysis of State’s stats under Herb.
Although the 2012-2013 Bruins won the Pac-12 regular season championship, they quickly bowed out in the first round of the NCAA tournament. On March 25, 2013, three days after being eliminated by 11th seed Minnesota, UCLA fired Howland.[26][27]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UCLA_Bruins_men%27s_basketball#Ben_Howland_era_.282003_.E2.80.93_2013.29On March 25, 2013, Howland was fired by UCLA.[12][13] In his 10 years with the Bruins, he had a .685 winning percentage, went to three consecutive Final Fours, and won four Pac-12 conference titles
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Howland#UCLANo one knows how good Archie will be.
True but not relevant because the same issue would exist with anyone that State is looking to hire. If State were looking for a new coach (and we’re not), then Archie already has everything that State would want.
I can tell you, by talking to somebody very close to Sean last night, that Sean feels that Pitt is a great place to visit, but barring something unforeseen…Sean Miller doesn’t have interest in leaving Arizona to come back to his alma mater,” Rothstein said. “So now, if you’re a resident of western Pennsylvania, it’s best that you turn the page from that chapter.”
Rothstein also doesn’t expect Archie Miller to take over the Pitt’s head coaching duties.
“Archie Miller, right now, is in a situation where he has become the new Shaka Smart of the Atlantic 10,” Rothstein said. “Dayton is a perennial top 25 or top 30 program. He’s obviously been given certain resources at Dayton, which he’s very comfortable with. So, I think Archie Miller, too, isn’t a slam dunk to leave Dayton, anyway…He has a program in place to already be at the level which Pitt is trying to get to.”
Not worth more than any other article; but combines common sense with something to temporarily soothe State fans. After all, did anyone really expect Sean to leave Arizona for Pitt?
Selection Committee seeding
1. Kansas
2. North Carolina
3. Virginia
4. Oregon
5. Michigan St.
6. Oklahoma
7. Villanova
8. Xavier
9. West Virginia
10. Miami (FL)
11. Utah
12. Texas A&M
13. Duke
14. California
15. Kentucky
16. Iowa St.
17. Indiana
18. Purdue
19. Maryland
20. Baylor
21. Texas
22. Notre Dame
23. Arizona
24. Seton Hall
25. Wisconsin
26. Dayton
27. Iowa
28. Oregon St.
29. Texas Tech
30. Colorado
31. Southern California
32. Saint Joseph’s
33. Providence
34. Butler
35. Cincinnati
36. UConn
37. Pittsburgh
38. Temple
39. Syracuse
40. VCU
41. Vanderbilt
42. Michigan
43. Wichita St.
44. Gonzaga
45. Tulsa
—————Last at-large bid
46. UNI
47. Chattanooga
48. Little Rock
49. Yale
50. South Dakota St.
51. UNCW
52. Hawaii
53. Stony Brook
54. Iona
55. Green Bay
56. Buffalo
57. Fresno St.
58. Stephen F. Austin
59. Middle Tenn.
60. CSU Bakersfield
61. UNC Asheville
62. Weber St.
63. Austin Peay
64. Hampton
65. FGCU
66. Fairleigh Dickinson
67. Southern U.
68. Holy CrossSorry to bring this back up, but I wanted to leave a note where I would be sure to see it next year:
Syracuse entered Selection Sunday losing 5 of 6, including their opening round game in the ACCT. Their selection supports previous statements made by the Selection Committee that all wins/losses are given equal weight, regardless of when they occur in the season.
Several years ago, Iowa lost 6 of last 7 games and got in:
Syracuse’s RPI from the NCAA doesn’t agree with either CBS or ESPN. (But since the NCAA doesn’t give daily updates, their “official” numbers come out too late to be useful to us.) I believe that SYR’s NCAA ranking of 71 sets a new record low for a power conference school….and supports the outer edges of the bubble region I use in the weekly RPI updates.
I scanned the Pitt articles this morning and everyone is just airing their own personal laundry list of potential candidates. The insane wish for Sean Miller to return to his alma mater appears frequently. Archie’s name appears on almost every list…along with the coach of nearly every successful mid-major. Obviously it’s really early and it doesn’t look like anything real has leaked out of Pitt yet.
Back to the NCAAT: ACC guaranteed $30M over the next six years:
Atsur has been in this kid’s ear for a while…we’ll see.
For some reason, that reminded me of Evtimov having to explain Herb-speak to Atsur in French(?).
I haven’t been following the Jamie Dixon to TCU rumors:
they quote Pittsburgh Post-Gazette sports reporter Paul Zeise as saying Dixon’s buyout is somewhere between $1.25 and $1.5 million for every remaining year on his contract. That would put the buyout at somewhere between $8.75 million and $10.5 million.
This site is reporting “breaking news” that Dixon to TCU is a done deal
http://www.cardiachill.com/2016/3/21/11278822/jamie-dixon-hired-by-tcu-per-multiple-reports
Pitt has been paying Dixon more than I expected. Wasn’t salary one of the reasons Howland left? Or was that just because UCLA was spending big bucks still looking for a savior?
. Remember when we profiled Lon Kruger during our “B List” series after the Calipari thing fell apart 10 years ago?
Wasn’t Turgeon also on that list?
IMO the higher percentage play is to stick with Gott and hope he breaks through into a higher tier of recruiting and that lifts the program.
Since every year is a different story, trends in recruiting are of questionable value. But Gott’s recruiting is certainly not trending up. So holding out hope for a dramatic improvement in recruiting (and thus results) seems more like wishful thinking than a strategic decision (and quite reminiscent of the HSSS).
Given what Gott accomplished in his first four years, you would have to be an idiot to think that he is suddenly in hot water over one bad year…especially since he got a pay raise last summer. The bigger questions are:
– How much improvement will we see next year?
– Will the 15/16 season only be a “once-in-a-blue-moon” disaster?
– How many bad years will we suffer through before Yow is forced to make a change?
– How does the fact that DY’s and Woodson’s contracts both end in 2019 factor into any decision?The phrase “higher percentage play” is interesting and difficult to reach a consensus. For instance what does the following list of coaches have in common and what are the differences:
Bob Staak
Pete Gillen
Skip Prosser
Thad Matta
Sean MillerWhat they have in common is they were all head coaches at Xavier before leaving for bigger programs. Any basketball fan should be able to point out the key difference. Since State is unlikely to sign a sure thing, a basketball coaching search will always have a certain amount of risk. The last question is:
-When is it worth taking that risk to move beyond what you have?Shaka can still blow the big tourney game with the best of them. Still living off of one run.
Yea, but that’s one more than a lot of coaches….and at a mid-major no less.
Jay Bilas on mike & mike today and shared some opinions on various topics but only caught him discussing the status of college bb coaching and his example was VCU and Smart.He believes that successful mid-major coaches have no reason to move to an unsuccessful schools of a major conference.
Once again, we have an example of a talking head talking out of the other end. VCU is quite a large university with nearly 20,000 undergrads. They raised tuition to cover Shaka’s last pay raise. Many of the mid-majors don’t have the ability to match salaries with the power conference teams. For example, Xavier has less than 5,000 undergrads and their constant roll over in head coaches proves that Bilas is full of it.
I saw on yahoo.sports that 99.999% of the brackets were busted after day 1 with the Yale and A-LR upsets. Mich St’s loss ruined what was left.
The one thing that I hate is the talking heads discussing how there brackets are doing. I couldn’t possibly care less about their predictions. Why can’t we talk about the games?
It would be nice if the committee used some kind of transparent methodology…
I don’t know if they did it this year, but for several past years the NCAA hosted a mock selection committee for various media outlets. They illustrated their process and then had groups of media go through their own selection/seeding process…including confusion caused by upsets in conference tournaments.
The talking heads refuse to learn the process, evidently preferring to make up their own rules so that they will have something to bitch about. But there are all kinds of people that do their own predictive brackets and do a fairly decent job at predicting which teams will get in. If complete outsiders can predict the results, then the selection process is not that opaque.
However, I am curious about what “advanced” metrics they are using and under what circumstances these other metrics are used. While I poked fun at kenpom/wichita st; they were included for some reason and I am interested in learning that thought process.
I looked over KenPom’s ranking. I have to question anything that ranks Wichita St as #12 in the country.
Best sources I’m aware of are KenPom and associated the “Four Factors” concept regularly used by BTP.
Are you saying that you like KenPom’s rankings or are you saying that the selection committee used his rankings?
7 min ESPN radio interview with Castiglione.
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=14966943Interesting and short interview
Tulsa had road win against SMU along with the top-50 and top-100 wins that those left out didn’t, including 8 wins against tournament teams. (Last team in)
St Bonny (First team out) weak OOC SOS (150+). 5 losses to teams not in tournament. Compared to VCU, Syracuse, and Tulsa not as good a resume.
Recognize that Monmouth has few opportunities against Top 100 teams, 3-4 record. Biggest factor was 3 losses to teams outside Top 200.
Syracuse had 5 Top 50 wins, with 3 of those away from home (road or neutral). Boeheim’s suspension not really a factor. Thinks Syracuse had tough conference schedule because they played most of the top teams in ACC only once and most of those were on the road.
Random thoughts:
If the Aztecs were so good, then why did they only get a 2-seed in the NIT?
The fact that the Dance Card professors can get so many teams right means that there is some consistency from year to year. But there are still decisions to make and anyone that has worked in a committee knows that the consensus is not always correct….ie What is a horse designed by a committee? A Camel.
I’m not sure how to take this talk about “advanced metrics”. What are they? When are they used?
They problem I have with the “eye test” is its limited nature. If someone had only watched the State/Duke game in the ACCT, their judgement of the Pack would probably be skewed. If you only watch someone dominate lesser opponents, then are you sure that you can judge how they will perform against the nation’s best?
