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I seemingly see a shift in recruiting philosophy. Maybe it is out of desperation, but I see is offering more 4 star, top 100 type kids earlier. Maybe it’s just new blood on the trail, or maybe it is what I want to see.
I decided to take a look at how Gott’s recruiting has progressed using the Internet Wayback Machine and the Verbal Commits site (so all star rankings from VC, rounded up or down, i.e., I am calling 3.3 a 3 star and 3.7 a 4 star).
On 4/8/12, immediately following Gott’s first season:
– We had commitments for the class of 2012 from Lewis, Purvis, and Warren and were in the running for Jefferson, with 3 other offers out to the high school class of 2012 (1 5 star, 1 4 star, 1 2 star).
– We had 18 offers out to the high school class of 2013 (2 5 star, 15 4 star (including Cat, Anya), 1 3 star).
– We had 4 offers out to the high school class of 2014 (1 5 star, 1 4 star, and 2 2 star (Martins)).
– Washington and Freeman had not been offered.By 10/22/12:
– We had commitments for the class of 2013 from Cat and Washington, with 4 other offers out to the high school class of 2013 (1 5 star, 4 4 star (including Anya), 1 3 star).
– Turner had transferred and was redshirting.
– Freeman had not been offered.
– We had commitments for the class of 2014 from the Martins, with 19 other offers out to the high school class of 2014 (8 5 star, 7 4 star, 4 3 star).By 5/10/13:
– We had commitments for the class of 2013 from Cat, Washington, Anya, and Freeman, with 1 other offer out to the high school class of 2013 (1 2 star).
– We had a commitment from JUCO transfer Lee.
– Turner was wrapping up his redshirt year.
– We had commitments for the class of 2014 from the Martins, with 22 other offers out to the high school class of 2014 (9 5 star, 9 4 star (including Abu), 3 3 star, 1 2 star).
– We had an offer out to transfer Lacey.By 9/14/13:
– We had commitments for the class of 2014 from Abu and the Martins, with 5 other offers out to the high school class of 2014 (1 5 star, 3 4 star, 1 3 star).
– Transfer Lacey was redshirting.
– We had 20 offers out to the high school class of 2015 (8 5 star, 10 4 star, 1 3 star, 1 2 star).
– We had 7 offers out to the high school class of 2016 (4 5 star, 1 4 star, 2 2 star). Curiously, DSJ was not listed as having an offer from us in this update; I assume he had an offer from us by this time, which would show the VC data is not fully accurate.By 3/27/14:
– We had commitments for the class of 2014 from Abu and the Martins, with no other offers out to the high school class of 2014.
– Lacey was wrapping up his redshirt year.
– We had 19 offers out to the high school class of 2015 (5 5 star, 12 4 star, 1 3 star, 1 2 star).
– We had 10 offers out to the high school class of 2016 (5 5 star (including DSJ), 2 4 star, 3 3 star).By 10/5/14:
– We had no commitments for the class of 2015, with 6 offers out to the high school class of 2015 (4 5 star, 2 2 star).
– Rowan and Kirk did not have offers.
– Transfer Henderson was redshirting.
– We had 23 offers out to the high school class of 2016 (9 5 star (including DSJ), 10 4 star, 3 3 star, 1 2 star).
– We had 1 offer out to the high school class of 2017 (1 4 star).By 4/4/15:
– We had no commitments for the class of 2015, with 3 offers out to the high school class of 2015 (2 5 star, 1 2 star).
– Henderson was wrapping up his redshirt year.
– We had 23 offers out to the high school class of 2016 (9 5 star (including DSJ), 10 4 star, 3 3 star, 1 2 star).
– We had 1 offer out to the high school class of 2017 (1 4 star).By 10/8/15:
– We had a commitment for the class of 2016 from DSJ, with 7 offers out to the high school class of 2016 (3 5 star, 3 4 star, 1 2 star).
– Transfer Dorn was redshirting.
– We had 13 offers out to the high school class of 2017 (4 5 star, 3 4 star, 1 3 star, 5 2 star).
– We had 4 offers out to the high school class of 2018 (4 2 star).By 3/27/16:
– We had a commitment for the class of 2016 from DSJ, with 3 offers out to the high school class of 2016 (1 5 star, 1 4 star, 1 3 star).
– Dorn was wrapping up his redshirt year.
– We had 15 offers out to the high school class of 2017 (7 5 star, 7 4 star, 1 2 star).
– We had 6 offers out to the high school class of 2018 (1 5 star, 2 4 star, 1 3 star, 2 2 star).—
That is a lot of info, not sure it reveals any sort of pattern. Plus, the data may not be complete, and the star rankings obviously change over time; for example all of the 2 stars with offers over the past year will likely turn into 5 and 4 star players.
We already knew Gott was good at getting incoming transfers, and that is shown here. I expect he will get 2 more for next season’s class and continue that trend.
We already knew Gott was pretty good at scrambling, as shown by getting Dorn and Kirk last year.
We already knew Gott goes after top talent, as shown by the breakdown of star ratings of the players he has offered over time. That said, the fact that there weren’t more offers for 4 and 3 star players doesn’t mean the staff wasn’t on them. We got Freeman and Kirk late, we just didn’t choose to give them offers as early as the bigger names.
His classes (counting transfers in their first year eligible to play) look like this:
– Lewis, Purvis, Warren
– Turner, Cat, Anya, Washington, Freeman, Lee
– Lacey, Abu, Martins
– Henderson, Rowan, Kirk
– Dorn, DSJ, ?That is a high quality group of players, so the quality has been there. Gott’s first three classes were very good or better.
His 4th class is the real problem here. He basically whiffed on the freshman class, scrambling to get Rowan and Kirk very late. The data above shows he made 20+ offers and signed none of those players. And this hurt even more because of the roster spacing; we really needed another large class like his second class, but didn’t get it.
His 5th class looks good in quality but poor in quantity right now. I still think he will pull 2+ more players in, so it should end up looking better than his 4th class.
We already knew we were runner up on at least a couple really good players (Jefferson and Bam). Had he gotten one or both of them, his results would look better. In particular, getting Bam would have made the 4th class look like a bit of an aberration. And we know he was very close on both of those guys.
So is it bad luck, near misses, or bad recruiting philosophy? I assume a combination of all of those. Furthermore, I am unclear on how the recruiting responsibility is divided up among the coaching staff, but I am under the impression that Moxley’s health issues hurt our recruiting, but not sure how far back that impact stretches.
Thoughts?
IMO not coachable and not a good teammate are both BS. I have never seen any credible report that would support either notion. (No, I don’t find this DraftExpress “scouting report” to be a credible source.)
Also, nbadraft.net currently has Cat projected to be taken in the first round by the Spurs at 1.29. That is probably the best possible situation he could go to, with a great coach (Pop), an aging starter at PG (Parker is 34 and has a lot of miles), a backup who is a UFA next year (Mills), and no other PG on the roster (I’m not counting 40 year old Andre Miller).
Aside from that, IMO Cat will make the NBA and play a long career barring a major injury, regardless of where he is drafted. IMO his game is much better suited to the NBA, where the floor is spaced much better, it is easier to run, and there is much less zone defense. I expect he will thrive with his quickness, one on one ability, and mid range game. And he has already proven he will work hard, so he could develop solid three point range over time, and his defense could also improve with more practice time and better coaching.
Could we get one for basketball too?
I got a notification on my phone that read grad transfer C from South Alabama and immediately assumed it was for basketball. Happy for the football team, but also kind of disappointed…
^You can tell from the schools that it covers Washington (Cincy), Purvis (UConn), Lewis (Butler), Raymond (MTSU), Harris (Providence), Painter (ODU), and the Martins (TBD). But it does not cover Harrow (Kentucky). So it covers 5 years.
^If Lutz is a great Xs and Os guy, and especially if Gott left a lot of “day to day” stuff to him, how come we weren’t better at Xs and Os? I like and respect Lutz, but I have felt for quite some time that we would better off turning over his specific assistant coach position.
I am surprised to see it implied that Rivers does not have diplomacy or humility.
For the former, just watch any of his press conferences. He has never thrown anyone under the bus, despite playing for lousy coaches and behind a lousy offensive line for the majority of his pro career. He also always praises his opponents.
For the latter, I have never heard him say anything focused on “me” rather than team. I’m sure he is a confident guy, and deservedly so, but I have never heard or observed him to come across as arrogant or cocky or self-centered.
Perhaps his father is a jackass during games (all the ref would know), but it doesn’t seem that he raised a jackass. He has been a team leader for the Chargers for a decade, and he is well respected around the NFL. He is the face of his franchise.
How many jackasses who lack humility and diplomacy can you say that about?
As for talking on the field, there is a difference between talking and talking $hit. He does the former, not the latter. He is well known for never cursing, which I’m sure is rare in his profession.
As for modeling on his father and Amato, while I’m sure they would be big influences on his coaching style, he has also played 12 years in the pros. He has played for Marty Schottenheimer, Norv Turner, and Mike McCoy as head coaches and with many OCs and QB coaches. If he goes into coaching, I would expect his style to be shaped by all of his experiences.
I’m not saying he would be a good head coach, but IMO BJD’s specific criticism here is off base.
^rye, I have no problem with you. I’m not sure why you would say so. I simply made an observation that you don’t want Gott as our coach, which you have stated numerous times on this site, and it influences your perspective and posts. Do you find that to be a controversial statement? I didn’t see it or intend it to be taken as an insult. Everyone is entitled to their opinions, and reasonable people can disagree reasonably.
I have no issue with your views on what you label category 4 players. I agree Gott has had too many, at least when paired with his sparse usage of available scholarships. Maybe if he used more scholarships, the transfers wouldn’t hurt as much. It is the combination that is the crusher, not just the transfers.
I was hoping for some stability on that front, and when the Martin transfers were announced, I moved into the camp that Gott has one year to prove himself (in combination of on court results and recruiting results) or should be replaced.
But you also mixed that issue with what I quoted about what you label category 3 players, and I think your stance is off base, as I noted above. You said “players” (plural) and then noted that you were really talking about one player who left and one player you assume will leave. Not enough to establish a trend for that category. I’m fine agreeing to disagree on this.
Let’stand look at who we are talking about, Rye:
Lo Brown- Detroit Pistons
CJ Leslie- A “case” of his own, yet he had his shot at it.
TJ Warren- Suns
Lacey-Aged out, future?
Cat- Most likely draftedNot gonna put Abu there, because he is still with the program.
Sorry. That’s not a long list of guys with a decision to make. Can you tell me who has chosen the wrong path? That one more season in college would have made the difference?
Fair question.
Good post. And Leslie arguably stayed a year longer than he should have. So he is a good counter example.
Lots of kids look at that decision every year and decide to take another year in college. We have kids that should be making that decision and are not.
I’m talking about Lacey primarily, and then Abu if he goes. There have been strong rumblings for some time that the latter would happen.
No offense, but your posts on this don’t really seem to make a lot of sense. You are talking about two players here, one of whom is likely to return to the program next year. Which means you are talking about one player. One player who gave up a 5th year in college to play professionally. One player whose NBA prospects were very unlikely to improve by staying for another year, as his game was fully mature.
As for Abu, can you provide links or evidence of these “strong rumblings” that Abu would leave? As far as I know, all there has been is unfounded speculation on message boards like this one and PP by fans who look for negatives.
An objective view on him is that he is not close to being ready for the NBA and is simply exercising the system to get good feedback. I think he is smart enough to take advantage of the system, and I expect him back and motivated.
It is interesting that the focus is on category 3. It’s the category 4 transfers that have hurt is the most. Pair 4 with 3 and it will be very difficult to ever really build anything.
You are the one that drove this tangent of focus on category 3 with your recent posts.
You made up your mind long ago that you want a coach other than Gott, and your outlook and posts are typically influenced by that bias.
In a “Way Too Early” look at projected ACC starting lineups, Joe Giglio has us in the bottom 1/3 tier, and finishing 11th in the ACC. If that happens, it won’t be good for anyone.
Actually, something like this would be the second best outcome.
The best outcome would be a strong rebound performance with an upper conference finish and quality NCAA tournament seed, all while signing some quality recruits. If we can’t have that, better to have a season so bad next year that Yow is forced to fire him and start over with a new coach.
Having to constantly pull a rabbit is not a way to build a top 25 program.
I agree. I’d still rather him pull one out than not. I’d rather that he pull a miraculous turnaround than hope he crashes and burns.
I have read elsewhere that there is expectation of 1-2 traditional (sit out next year) transfers (1 G, 1 big) plus at least one post-grad transfer big. Plus the possibility of Yurtseven. There is still potential for Gott to pull a rabbit out of his
hatass.There is also some discussion of the possibility of Freeman redshirting. I assume he didn’t do it this season due to our roster need, so I assume he won’t do it in the upcoming season unless our roster need is lessened due to influx of multiple bigs for whatever reason. That would be good both because of what it implies about the upcoming season, i.e., not needing Freeman, and because it would give us a senior big in 2017-18.
Not saying it won’t happen, because we’ve seen it. But Abu would be foolish to go pro if he wants to play in the NBA.
nbadraft.net shows him going undrafted in both their 2016 and 2017 mock drafts. People have been comparing him to Leslie, but I would argue that Leslie was a more skilled player. If he couldn’t make it, I see no reason to believe Abu can make it at this stage.
Abu is not as old as Lacey was. He doesn’t have a family situation like Cat does. And he isn’t coming off a season as strong as either of them. Also, there is no apparent threat to his playing time or opportunity. Even if Gott lands the Turkish recruit, he would play alongside Abu, and probably would draw defensive attention away from Abu.
IMO Abu needs to play two more years. He has too many deficiencies — handle, jump shot, offensive moves, defense. I mean, what does he do that would stand out in the NBA? Nothing. He needs a lot of work.
I think he will be back.
Wow, they are paying him $2.65M? Where does that rank nationally? It’s got to be much higher than he is worth.
If I’m the AD, I let Gott know what’s what. You have a year to show me you’re still the man for this job. Fix it, or I’ll fix it for you.
Agree, I think it has reached this point. My only concern there is, would we be willing to buy out Gott’s contract at the end of next season? Not sure how expensive that would be. (And when I say ‘we’ I suppose I really mean would DY?)
I think the dropoff in Gott’s recruiting is being a bit overstated, or perhaps it is just shorthand used to highlight other issues. Using Verbal Commits data, which blends star rankings from Scout, Rivals, and ESPN, here were the star ratings for our roster in 2015-16:
4.3 Barber
4.0 Abu
4.0 Anya
4.0 Rowan
4.0 Caleb Martin
4.0 Cody Martin
3.3 Henderson
3.3 Kirk
3.0 FreemanBarber, Anya, Abu, and Rowan were all ranked within the top 10 at their respective positions in their recruiting classes, and the twins were both top 20.
This is in addition to these other players Gott recruited who could have been eligible for the 2015-16 roster:
4.7 Purvis
4.3 Lacey
4.3 Warren
4.0 Lewis
4.0 Washington
3.3 HarrisThough to be fair, if some/all of these players had stayed, obviously some of the players in the first list would have gone elsewhere.
Next season, we are set to have the following:
5.0 DSJ
4.0 Abu (assuming he stays)
4.0 Anya
4.0 Rowan
3.3 Henderson
3.3 Kirk
3.0 Freeman
2.3 DornPlus I assume 1-2 unknowns, whether freshmen, post-grad transfers, or JUCO transfers. And probably a regular transfer who will need to sit out one year.
Considering Gott has been runner-up on some high recruits (e.g., Bam, Jefferson), and considering his best recruit ever is DSJ for the upcoming season, I don’t think it is so much that has recruiting has fallen off. It is instead the following:
– Lack of retention
– Not using more scholarships
– Too much clustering (e.g., glut of wings) (i.e., are they the right recruits?)
– Too much emphasis on athlete as opposed to skill (i.e., are they the right recruits?)
– Poor coaching (i.e., not getting the results that should come with the talent recruited)Gott could still pull a rabbit out if he signs the Turkish recruit or possibly certain transfers for this year, in which case we could still have a nice roster and rotation (barring key injuries). But this combination of problems seems insurmountable at this point.
I was hoping he might turn the corner on the retention problem at some point, but the Martins leaving has led me to give up hope on that. And there seems to be no sign that he will change/expand the emphasis of his recruiting, suggesting none of my middle three issues will be solved. Change in the first four issues on my list might mean the last one could be overcome, but without such change, it can’t.
Best case scenario for next season:
PG – Smith, Dorn?
SG – Henderson, Dorn
SF – Mav, Dorn, Kirk
PF – Abu, Freeman
C – Unknown, AnyaWhere unknown is a starter caliber grad transfer or recruit (e.g., the Turk). That is a better roster than 2015-16, but still thin on depth at guard.
Worst case scenario, Abu goes pro, and we don’t get the unknown player (or he isn’t starter-caliber). Then we’re looking at:
PG – Smith, Dorn?
SG – Henderson, Dorn
SF – Mav, Dorn, Kirk
PF – Freeman, Unknown? Mav, Kirk
C – Anya, Freeman, Unknown?(At least I hope that is the worst case scenario…)
That roster is comparable to 2015-16 in overall talent/depth, better at guard/wing, but weaker inside. That roster means another losing season like 2015-16.
Very disappointing developments. If Abu stays, we have a chance at a decent season next year. Either way, Gott’s seat is a lot hotter right now than it was a week ago, and justifiably so. IMO he is now coaching/recruiting for his job, with one more year to accomplish something significant or else.
Beginning of the end for Gott I am afraid. You cannot keep losing guys, and glue guys at that, every year and sustain a program. It has caught up with him. We’re a sinking ship.
I have to agree. I have been holding out hope this was the offseason when this wouldn’t happen.
This was a nobrainer move for him IMO. I expect to see him playing regularly in the NBA next season.
Tau – only one coach on your list hasn’t made a final 4.
I’m not following your point. None of those universities have been back to a F4 since firing those coaches. Collectively, those universities have played 14 seasons since the firings, with only 4 NCAAT bids. UCLA made it the S16 twice, though we already knew Howland had a really good team when fired, so that may not be surprising. Otherwise, they have had 12 seasons of meh.
Bama stayed about the same. UCLA stayed about the same, maybe slightly better (until this year, anyway). Minnesota got worse. Texas stayed about the same in year 1, but jury is out.
The comparisons are inexact and each situation is unique. I get that. I was just interested in how other situations that had at least some level of similarity worked out.
One more thought on the coaches that were brought up earlier as comps. Here is my view of why they were fired/pushed out.
Howland – NCAA issues related to recruiting
Smith – issues with AD, asst coach son DUI
Gott – external issues, performance
Barnes – time for a change, performance (after making NCAAT in 16 of 17 seasons)IMO Howland and Smith aren’t great comps, as stated. Gott (Bama) is intuitively a nice comp to Gott (State), but I’m not aware he is replicating the external issues, so not an exact comp… would he have been fired without those issues? Barnes seems like the best comp to me, as it seems to have been for performance.
So how did those programs fare?
Howland succeeded by Alford. Slight upgrade in first year (+3 wins) but already in decline (28 wins -> 22 wins -> 15 wins).
Tubby succeeded by Richard Pitino. Downgrade from NCAA tournament in Tubby’s last season to NIT in Pitino’s first and in rapid decline (25 wins -> 18 wins -> 8 wins).
Gott succeeded by Grant (not counting Pearson interim gig). Upgraded program in seasons 2-4, though not to Gott’s peak level at Bama; out before end of season 6. Avery Johnson’s first season was this year, 18 wins.
Barnes succeeded by Smart. Smart only has one season in the books, not as good as Barnes’ last season; in fact, 16 of Barnes’ 17 seasons were arguably better than Smart’s first season at Texas. But jury is out until we see a couple more seasons.
All situations are unique, three of these guys are still there and could improve, and this is a small sample size. That said, it doesn’t look like it worked out great for the universities that fired these guys, at least not on the court.
I mean, if he can work his magic and bring in the Turkish dude, I am 100% behind seeing what he can do with THAT combination, and will be back on the optimism train. If not, would I trade him for Arch right now? Yes. Is that offer on the table, or likely to be? No. Interesting theoretical question, though, agreed.
This is a great summary of where I am. Gott isn’t going anywhere now, so I don’t see much point in thinking a lot about that scenario.
If Gott has another down year next year, it will swing me to thinking it is time for a change. The tricky part is defining exactly what a down year is. If we make the NCAA tournament, I don’t think that will be considered a down year, though I know there are many fans who want more than what Gott has delivered in his first four seasons, so they might not agree. Then you have to still consider how much is the buyout and can it be afforded, should Yow lead another search, etc. Multiple possible reasons/excuses to keep him on in that scenario.
People are starting to frequently compare this to the debates over HWSNBN. I was a strong advocate of firing him after year 5 and never bought back in despite his better performances in subsequent seasons; I always thought the Doherty years propped up some of his later success. The thing is, at the time I formed that opinion, we were only 9 years removed from our program being great. And it was reasonable to view the Les years as an unavoidable outcome of the harsh self-imposed sanctions, where a valued alum took one for the university… and then to view the HWSNBN years as a gamble on a high upside (Pitino disciple), unproven coach, which didn’t ultimately pan out. But we could still look back to V and know that those gambles can pay off. I also overestimated how much attractiveness the program still carried at the point.
Today, we are two searches and 15 years further removed from HWSNBN year 5, when I personally swung to the camp that he should be fired. Two searches by two ADs that resulted in flirtations with great coaches that didn’t pan out. I suppose that has lowered my expectations for what I expect in the next search and thus influences how much I think one down year is enough to make a change.
I also think BJD’s post is interesting with reference to the Turkish recruit. If Bam had signed with State, would those who think Gott should go still be of that opinion? If that sways anyone, that illustrates just what a fine line there is between the camps.
Archie’s ceiling is unknown but Gott’s has pretty well been defined. If you’re happy with Gott’s results, then you would want to keep him. If you’re not happy with what has produced over his entire career, then you might be ready for a shot at greatness rather than more of the same.
EDIT:
Then there’s a third group that admits that he has done more than enough to suffer one bad year without getting a hot seat (where I think most State fans are).Yes, I am in your third camp, which is why I didn’t agree with rye’s characterization of only the first two camps earlier.
You’re right about apples and oranges. Howland had three final fours and four conference titles at UCLA. In other words, he produced far more than Gott ever has.
Yes, of course. I am not claiming otherwise.
But Howland was fired due to potential NCAA issues over recruiting not due to poor on court performance. I am still interested in knowing of examples that actually match the current situation at State. Maybe there are none, I don’t know.
Although the 2012-2013 Bruins won the Pac-12 regular season championship, they quickly bowed out in the first round of the NCAA tournament. On March 25, 2013, three days after being eliminated by 11th seed Minnesota, UCLA fired Howland.[26][27]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UCLA_Bruins_men%27s_basketball#Ben_Howland_era_.282003_.E2.80.93_2013.29On March 25, 2013, Howland was fired by UCLA.[12][13] In his 10 years with the Bruins, he had a .685 winning percentage, went to three consecutive Final Fours, and won four Pac-12 conference titles
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Howland#UCLAThere are some differences.
Howland’s great four year run was 2005-06 to 2008-09. 3 Final Fours in that span. Then in 2009-2010, they didn’t fire him when he went 14-18. They were 23-11 and made the tournament in 2010-11, then they were 19-14 in 2011-12 and missed it again but didn’t fire him. Then the season you referenced above.
But that was the season that Howland brought in Shabazz Muhammad and Kyle Anderson, and made some questionable hire(s) of assistant coaches. There was an NCAA investigation and a lot of smoke around the program for that entire season.
Overall, apples and oranges IMO.
