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Thumbs up to CowDog on that last post. It’s getting downright tiresome.
This post is about our coaching search. The flamebait can be elsewhere.
This.
IMO, Archie isn’t coming because Papa Miller will tell him not to, just like he told Sean vis-a-vis Pitt:
http://triblive.com/sports/college/pitt/10189728-74/miller-guy-coach
John Miller expressed concerns about unrealistic expectations at Pitt.
“I just think it’s a very, very difficult job,” he said, specifically alluding to the ACC competition Pitt faces annually. “Coach K (Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski). (North Carolina coach) Roy (Williams). (Syracuse coach Jim) Boeheim. (Louisville coach) Rick Pitino. Start adding them all up. It’s brutal.”
Pretty disappointing take from Arch’s father. If Arch agrees with him, then better for us to hire someone else. If he doesn’t, then he’s our guy.
But point spread can skew the rankings as well. According to foxsports.com, Pomeroy was used last year to pick Wichita St. The problem I have with Wichita St last year is they didn’t play many Top50 teams and only won one of those games. I don’t think that their winning margin against a bunch of nobodies should push them into the NCAAT field over a team that actually beat good teams.
Perhaps the right thing would be to incorporate margin of victory/loss but in a manner weighted by strength of opponent. Is there a system that does that?
Or maybe do something like the breakdown of wins/losses vs. RPI (e.g., 1-25, 26-50, 51-100) with margin of victory. In other words, show average margin of victory against top 50 RPI opponents vs. top 100 RPI opponents vs. rest of opponents, or something like that. More data couldn’t hurt, right?
The rapid implosion of this season is stunning to me. IMO it has removed all doubt about Gott, he should be fired immediately after the season if not sooner.
I have never felt this level of apathy about watching our games, and it is doubly surprising given how exciting it seemed it would be entering the season to watch DSJ and this group of players. I live in CA, so I have changed my MO to checking the score first, then deciding if I will watch. Last night, I just deleted the game recording without watching any of it.
All that said, IMO the comparisons to HWSNBN are apples and oranges.
– As others have said, the ACC of Gott’s 6 seasons has been very different from the ACC of HWSNBN’s first 6 seasons.
– Gott’s performance in years 1-5 was much better overall than HWSNBN, it’s not close — 4 NCAA bids to 0, 2 S16s to 0, more signature wins, better recruiting, etc. HWSNBN should have been fired before year 6, whereas IMO Gott achieved enough in years 1-4 that he earned a pass for year 5 and thus earned the chance to coach year 6.
– When HWSNBN began his tenure, we were only 6 years removed from V… 6 years removed from being a true national contender. Maybe just 5 years, given Les inherited a great roster that played pretty well in his first season. Expectations were still high, apathy was still low. None of that was true by the time Gott was hired. By that time, we had been numbed by 21 years of Les, HWSNBN, and Lowe.But like I said above, it’s time to move on to the next guy, and hope against hope that we can actually hire someone who can effect positive change. At one time, I thought Gott was well positioned given the ages of many of the top ACC coaches (Boeheim, Pitino, Roy, K, Larranaga)… I hoped he would position the program to move up in the ACC pecking order when those guys inevitably retired. Well, they are all still hanging around, so now that opportunity is there for the next coach.
IMO it is absurd to even pose the question and warrants a Herm Edwards style rant. Absolutely not, for many reasons already posted.
I was planning to watch the game later, won’t bother. This is the 4th game this season lost by 18 or more points. On pace to exceed the total number of such losses in Gott’s first 5 seasons combined. I am not seeing a late season rally working out this year…
But, it’s shown potential for treatment of seizures as you mentioned, pain, nausea, weight control for cancer and HIV patients, and slowing tumor growth.
Yes, and yet it is still illegal for these purposes in most states. My wife suffers from chronic pain, and it is mildly helpful to her. We live in CA, so it is legal for her to use it here. Before we moved here, she was forced to either avoid it or use it illegally. Lousy choice that no one should have to face in this day and age, particularly given the Govt’s ongoing witch hunt against opioid use.
Yes, it should be legal. The presumption should always be that something should be legal until/unless we have compelling evidence that it being legal does sufficient harm to our society to compel us to make it illegal. IMO there is no such compelling evidence of that for marijuana, thus it should be legal.
Furthermore, the longer it remains illegal, the longer our society will have associated negative effects, such as increased crime, including violent crime; increased spending on law enforcement; and increased spending on incarceration. It also precludes the Govt, whether state or federal or both, from regulating and taxing production and sales. So financially it is a double whammy to taxpayers.
As others have pointed out, the status of other things like alcohol and tobacco do not directly bear on the answer to this question about marijuana. However, IMO it is non-controversial to say that alcohol and tobacco both cause much more significant harm to our society.
with who we will lose – DSJ, Henderson, Abu, Anya, Y7, plus at least two transfers
I see zero reason so far to believe that Yurt will be going pro after season. Even knowing the NBA drafts on potential, he is showing nothing so far that would have him in the first round, much less the lottery.
We are not who we (at least some of us) thought we were. This is a bad basketball team.
Sadly, I agree. The only silver lining about how this season is going right now is that it is going to make the decision about Gott pretty easy if it continues.
Tau: I agree with you entirely on points 1-4. It seems like we’re more similar in thinking than different.
Perhaps the primary difference on the points other than #5 is that you seem to have your mind made up that Gott should be fired at the end of the season barring an unexpected level of success this season, which you defined as elite 8 run, ACC championship, and/or top 4 finish in ACC regular season. I am not so decided and think we should just let the season play out and then make a decision. Maybe we’ll arrive at the same conclusion, but that is not a given.
I really would invite you to take the Pepsi challenge. Go and find 25 men’s college basketball jobs that…
I would be very interested in being able to assemble all of that data for all P5 and Big East programs to see where State slots in, but I don’t know where to find all such data, and I’m not sure it is publicly available.
I do know that the 2014-15 athletic expenditures for State ranked #45 among all division I programs. That info is located at USA Today, but there is no detailed breakdown, so it is impossible to subrank the basketball expenditures, and I assume some of the schools ranked higher spent more on football, meaning State’s basketball expenditures should be higher.
This is also further complicated in that those expenditures may or may not account for related booster club expenditures or third party expenditures (e.g., compensation to coaches from apparel deals, media deals, etc.).
I also don’t believe all criteria are equal in your list, with some dwarfing others. And there are likely criteria missing that would matter to prospective candidates. For example, place to live/cost of living/weather, caliber of conference/competition, recruiting base/competition, status of roster and incoming recruits, etc. Many of these would be favorable for State but also favorable for other jobs. One person may love Raleigh, another may prefer other settings. Etc.
The AD, athletic department structure, quality and involvement of the booster club, the chancellor, and whoever else the MBB head coach has to deal with also all matter a lot. By your own admission, adding some of all of that into your criteria list seems to have been the biggest factor that has resulted in two disappointing searches. As of today, how much has that stuff changed? When will it change to be more of a positive?
Taking it all together, if Yow remains at the end of the season, why would we expect significantly different results if we have another coaching search then?
Personally I think Herb was better here than gott. The last five years anyway
Let’s just call them “roughly equivalent” and not debate this point.
Agreed, because there is no debate. LMAO.
What would we do without our faith, family, jobs and booze.
Especially the booze, when it comes to being a Wolfpack fan…
You seem to take issue with my posts, so what’s your opinion?
I don’t take issue with them. I enjoy them because they are generally articulate and informed, and you provide a lot of substance for discussion. Not the case with everyone who posts here (perhaps including myself).
My take:
1. I didn’t know much about Gott when he was hired, so I had no real opinion at the time, although I didn’t take the circumstances of his hiring (the letter, etc.) as a strong positive. I was happy Lowe was replaced and was cautiously optimistic about Gott.
2. Looking back over his tenure, IMO it is clear that Gott is better than all of our coaches since V, although that is a low bar. It is equally clear he isn’t as good as V, Sloan, et al. I think he has raised the standing of the program, which could potentially bear on my last point below.
3. I agree that it is appropriate to prepare a plan for the eventuality that it is appropriate to fire Gott at the end of this season. I am not convinced that will be appropriate, I think it remains to be seen. If we do fire him, I would be very happy to hire Archie as his successor.
4. However, I agree with those who say it doesn’t make much sense to have Yow hire a successor to Gott. Given there is no appearance of her going anywhere anytime soon, if Gott does complete a disappointing season, this creates a conundrum that might actually change the calculus on what to do about him. If she is staying, that may give more reason to wait on firing Gott. (If firing him is even appropriate in the first place.)
5. I think you overrate what the program offers to its head coach. During the last two MBB coaching searches, I remember a lot of discussion and debate about how attractive our job is. I believe it was VaWolf who pointed out that the results speak for themselves. The fact that we settled on Lowe followed by Gott seems to show that the perception among head coaching candidates about our program does not match our perception of it. As a result of that, I think it is very possible that if we fire Gott we will end up with a replacement who performs worse. I’m not saying that is a reason not to fire him if warranted, just as I felt ending up with Lowe was not a good reason to think that forcing HWSNBN out was the wrong move. The two things are independent events.
They speak way more than squeaking into the dance and then putting together a 2 game winning streak against teams with top 50 RPIs.
Another excellent example of your bias showing through. In 2014-15, we advanced to the Sweet 16 by beating Villanova (RPI #4). In 2011-12, we advanced to the Sweet 16 by beating Georgetown (RPI #11) and San Diego State (RPI #27).
Again, why do you feel the need to embellish in your rants? If Gott is such a poor head coach for N.C. State, why can’t you just stick to the facts?
People seem to ignore what Gott has to work with. This isn’t NC State football. We have a massive stadium, top attendance, are a basketball team in a basketball conference, all games televised or streamed, Gott is paid a huge salary, his assistants paid more than most head coaches, we have a huge recruiting budget, a big sneaker company with AAU circuit funneling players his way, nationally televised games in prime time even as an unranked team, one of the top S&C guys in the business being focused on basketball first (most places are football first), a great practice facility, a museum of our program’s past accomplishments (SIC), an army of suits in the sidelines and seemingly 100% support by the AD. There are very, very, very few jobs in college basketball that offer this package, and only a handful of elite programs that can offer something more.
Well then, we should be able to get any coach we want, other than a “very, very, very few” of them. Right? If that is the case, sign me up, since it sounds like we can get whoever we want other than K, Izzo, Calipari, Self, and maybe a few others.
when the excuse mongers roll out the “we can’t hope to compete” argument
Once again, you lost me. Who is saying this in this discussion? When discussing Gott, it seems that you often lapse into strawman arguments.
someone who we might actually be able to get to come here
This seems to directly contradict your opener quoted above. If Gott has what “very, very, very few” other programs have, it stands to reason that all but “very, very, very few” head coaches should want to coach here. Or could it be that you overstated the first part?
I want what is best for NC State. She might be clouded by a long friendship and wanting to maintain that after her working days are over.
Ah, so Yow’s judgment is clouded, but yours is completely unbiased. I understand that’s how you see it. From my perspective, your judgment is just as biased as hers, just in the opposite direction.
If he is not the long term answer then we should find someone who could be. Gott has proven he cannot build a program. Short bursts of moderate tournament success with not title is all he has achieved and there is no reason to believe he will do anything else.
All I’m saying is that at this point, it is appropriate to let him coach out the season before making a decision. It is still possible this team will achieve things that Gott’s previous teams did not.
Comparing their conference records compares the programs against peers. Some peers have more, and some peers have less.
IMO to say that Dayton relative to the A10 = State relative to the ACC is still apples and oranges. We can agree to disagree on that.
In every one of those games we’re talking about, Arch was clearly against an opponent with superior resources. We should compare Gott’s records in those sorts of match ups. By my mark that would be games against Duke, UNC, Louisville and Syracuse in conference as well as Kentucky, Kansas, UCLA, Arizona, Indiana, Michigan State, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida and Michigan non-conference. I’m sure Gott can match Arch’s record there.
It doesn’t work linearly like that. You are forced to look at Gott’s record against the elite teams in college basketball. Suggesting that is a fair comparison of the disparity in resources is off base. More apples to oranges.
V won league and national titles, in a time when the ACC’s non-conference record was far superior to what it is now and when the high majors had great teams that stayed together multiple years. Get back to me when Gott wins that first conference or national title and we can start comparing them.
I must have missed whatever practice BS you are talking about. To be clear, V >>>> Gott. It’s not close.
That being said, I don’t think V (nor any other State coaches before possibly HWSNBN) is relevant to this discussion. This is 2017. College basketball is much different now, and it is unlikely State will ever again have a coach as good as V, if only because he is one of the best coaches in college basketball history, and those coaches are hard to find.
Look, you are obviously very down on Gott. IMO it is clearly influencing your perspective on all of this, which leads you to overstate his cons and understate his pros. I’m not saying he I think he is the long term answer, but I think he obviously deserves to coach this season out and see where the chips fall. So talking about firing him now is premature IMO, as is talking about who should replace him.
There are two things in all the coaching debates that tire me:
1) Running down the players to defend the coachAgreed.
2) Running down former coaching greats to prop up an obvious current underachiever. We see it with V…
Agreed, but I must have missed where anyone has been running down V in this discussion. Who did that?
Just curious, if we bring in Archie
You mention Arch, who would be my #1, #2 and #3 candidate wrapped up in one. I went and checked and Arch is 24-11 (.685) against the Power 5 + Big East. In every single one of those games, Dayton has fewer resources, exposure, recruiting budgets, etc. than their opponent.
Arch’s overall record against “NC State’s peers” is better than Gott’s high water mark while at NC State. He’s doing it with Dayton’s resources, not NC State’s.
Let that sink in…..
I get 24-13 for Archie to date. These were the opponents:
ACC: Wake, BC (2), GT (2), Syracuse (2)
Big Ten: Minnesota, Iowa (2), Ohio State, Northwestern, Nebraska
SEC: Alabama (4), Ole Miss (3), Auburn, Florida, Texas A&M, Arkansas (2), Vanderbilt (2)
PAC-12: Southern Cal (2), Cal, Stanford, Colorado
Big 12: Oklahoma, Baylor
Big East: Seton Hall, Providence, XavierImpressive for him for sure, but hardly comparable to the P5 schedule that Gott has faced during his tenure. Yes, he has fewer resources, etc., but to compare his P5/BE record to Gott’s is apples and oranges.
If I were Randy, I’d put Gott on notice. I’d be crystal clear that only a top 4 ACC regular season finish or ACC tournament championship keeps him safe unless he makes a deep NCAA tournament run (Elite 8 or beyond).
Just curious, if we bring in Archie (or whatever other coach you want and think we could get) after this season, are you expecting him to meet these criteria next season? If not, when?
Are two different 2 game win streaks in March (which were followed by defeats where the results were clear early)
This may not matter to the point of your post, but I don’t recall either of the losses in the sweet 16 as fitting “the results were clear early.” Against Kansas in 2012, we led at halftime and ultimately lost by 3 points. Against Louisville in 2015, we led at halftime and ultimately lost by 10 points.
No need to pile on to make your larger point.
Of course I think Yow needs to be gone before this gets fixed. Yesterday would have been enough for me if I were Randy.
Are you saying that Gott should be fired today? Or at the end of the season? If the latter, then don’t you need to let the rest of the season play out before making the decision to fire him? I certainly hope you aren’t saying he should be fired today.
even at home, with VT at 31 and nc state at 61 on kenpom, quality win.
I don’t see why anyone should put stock in kenpom ratings at this stage of the season. IMO those rankings will be flipped by the end of the season, maybe there will even be a wider gap.
Pomeroy is projecting State to have a losing ACC record (which wouldn’t surprise me).
I am not intimately familiar with Pomeroy, but I assume his projections do not account for improvement over the course of the season. To put it another way, I suspect that at this point in the season, Pomeroy has probably projected us with a worse ACC record than we ended up with in every season except possibly 2012-13. Can anyone check this?
I know “young team” is a tired excuse around here. But Gott’s teams at State have pretty consistently improved over the course of the season, and this year he is using a rotation that includes 6 players who now have a total of 1 game each of ACC conference play experience (DSJ, Dorn, Henderson, Yurt, Kapita, Johnson). I expect at least as much improvement over the course of this season as we have seen in the past, which suggests to me that Pomeroy is likely underprojecting our ACC record.
