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Accomplishments are always better measuring sticks than subjective rankings.
It depends on what you are trying to measure. Recruiting rankings are certainly often wrong. But the fact remains that, while players are being recruited, rankings matter a lot. Rankings are a representative measure of how coaches see the talent level of the players being recruited. So successfully signing highly rated classes reflects well on a coaching staff’s ability to recruit.
If they don’t pan out, it could be because the coaching staff isn’t great at coaching. Or perhaps because they weren’t good at recognizing true talent, where it differed from the recruiting rankings, and thus recruited overranked players. Or perhaps because of injuries, off court issues, etc. Or maybe being recruited over by players who simply beat them out. Or perhaps because of chemistry issues, whether with coaches or players. Or maybe they got homesick, etc. Or maybe all of the above.
So on court results that were not great doesn’t mean a high recruiting class ranking wasn’t justified. *shrug*
Since Gottfried arrived, he not only has signed three straight top 20 recruiting classes, he has also been very close on other top recruits:
2012: Parker (Duke)
2013: Randle (Kentucky)
2014: Graham (Kansas)There is no shame in losing recruits to these schools, especially when at the same time still bringing in strong classes.
We’ve always attracted top talent. We have not always done much with it.
I don’t see anything here that we didn’t already know. *shrug*
IMO this just illustrates the following:
1. HWSNBN was an average coach at best.
2. Lowe was a terrible coach.
3. It is possible to attract top caliber talent to N.C. State.
4. Some of our players (Simmons, Hickson, Warren) made good decisions about leaving early.
5. Some of our players (Costner, Brown, Leslie) made bad decisions about leaving early.I don’t see anything here that we didn’t already know. *shrug*
^Sorry, I was in the forum and failed to realize this was a blog post.
Posted the following in the other forum thread:
State’s 2014-15 schedule:
Home/Road: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Clemson, Virginia
Home: Duke, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Notre Dame
Road: Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Boston CollegeLooks like a path to a pretty good conference schedule.
Expected losses: Duke (home), UNC (road), Louisville (road)
Expected wins: Wake (home), Wake (road), Clemson (home), VT (home), Notre Dame (home), GT (road), BC (road)That’s not to say that we can’t win or lose any of these games, but this is what I expect based on what I know now. That’s 7-3, with 8 games that could go either way. I can easily see 11-7, and maybe 12-6.
State’s 2015-16 schedule:
Home/Road: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida State, Duke
Home: Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Louisville, Boston College
Road: Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Notre DameThis doesn’t look as appealing.
Expected losses: Duke (home), Duke (road), UNC (road), Louisville (home), Syracuse (road)
Expected wins: Wake (home), Wake (road), FSU (home), Miami (home), GT (home), Clemson (home), BC (home), VT (road), Notre Dame (road)That is 9-5, but leaves these 4 as the toss-up games: UNC (home), UVA (road), Pitt (road), FSU (road). While I think those games will likely be more winnable than those I named as expected losses, we could still easily go 1-3 or even 0-4 in those games, leaving us with just 9 or 10 conference wins.
Hopefully our team’s development and continuing recruiting success will have our team prepared to excel against this tougher schedule by 2015-16.
State’s 2015-16 schedule:
Home/Road: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida State, Duke
Home: Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Louisville, Boston College
Road: Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Notre DameThis doesn’t look as appealing.
Expected losses: Duke (home), Duke (road), UNC (road), Louisville (home), Syracuse (road)
Expected wins: Wake (home), Wake (road), FSU (home), Miami (home), GT (home), Clemson (home), BC (home), VT (road), Notre Dame (road)That is 9-5, but leaves these 4 as the toss-up games: UNC (home), UVA (road), Pitt (road), FSU (road). While I think those games will likely be more winnable than those I named as expected losses, we could still easily go 1-3 or even 0-4 in those games, leaving us with just 9 or 10 conference wins.
Hopefully our team’s development and continuing recruiting success will have our team prepared to excel against this tougher schedule by 2015-16.
State’s 2014-15 schedule:
Home/Road: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Clemson, Virginia
Home: Duke, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Notre Dame
Road: Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Boston CollegeLooks like a path to a pretty good conference schedule.
Expected losses: Duke (home), UNC (road), Louisville (road)
Expected wins: Wake (home), Wake (road), Clemson (home), VT (home), Notre Dame (home), GT (road), BC (road)That’s not to say that we can’t win or lose any of these games, but this is what I expect based on what I know now. That’s 7-3, with 8 games that could go either way. I can easily see 11-7, and maybe 12-6.
State averaged 71.1 ppg in 2013-14. I could easily see this team averaging 75+ per game. With so much depth, there are a lot of ways to get there, but here is one that is reasonable IMO:
12 Cat
12 Lacey
12 Turner
8 Anya
8 Washington
6 Abu
6 Freeman
5 Lee
5 Martin twins
2 Graham
—
76If you prefer Cat 10, Lacey 14, fine, but it doesn’t change the total.
I don’t think any of those projected averages are unreasonable… and there is still upside in those projections. For example, that shows just 28 ppg collectively from the 4 bigs, while not showing unrealistic ppg for any of the guards/wings.
Is it really so unreasonable to add 4 more points in there to get up to 80 ppg, for example?
^Great post, BJD. Agree 100%. If we get Graham and everyone stays healthy (and no one else departs for some reason), this team should compete for 4th place in the conference. I doubt they’ll make it, but they should be in the hunt.
ppf, you forgot Notre Dame. Otherwise, your list looks pretty good, though I don’t think FSU or Clemson has a realistic shot at #4.
IMO Cat is better than Lewis and would have been the starting PG even if Lewis stayed. IMO we lost our backup PG. And it’s possible that will open the door for us to sign a better backup PG in Graham.
No one chose to comment on my statement above that I expect our team to both score more points per game next season and allow fewer points per game next season.
If that happens, especially given everyone’s expectations that the ACC will be stronger next season, how much could the departures have really hurt us?
^Alpha, the UVA article you linked is from April 2013. Harris and Mitchell were both seniors this year and will not be back. They were 2 of their top 3 players. I don’t know much about their incoming players, but I expect they will take at least a small step back next season.
That’s why I said above that I think they, like Syracuse, are probably overrated, though they may still look better than State on paper and will be expected to finish higher in the conference standings.
^BJD, I agree with you about cons. I put it that way in terms of projecting how high the Pack can finish, which seemed to be a theme in this discussion. Louisville’s arrival likely bumps State down 1 spot for next year, for example.
Also, I agree Syracuse is possibly overrated, but I do think they will be better than State on paper and will be very likely to finish higher in the standings.
IMO the same can probably be said about next year’s UVA team.
I expect UNC and Duke to be elite. I don’t know enough about Louisville to say if they will be in the first (elite) or second tier of the conference.
Pros:
1. State will have its deepest roster in many years. I can’t remember the last State team that was deeper in terms of talent. We have as many as 10 players who can positively contribute in the projected rotation, and that is without Graham.
2. Part of this depth is the incoming freshmen, but we should not be in position of having to start or heavily depend on any of them, barring injuries or unexpected departures.
3. Gott and staff have shown a propensity to help players improve year over year (Leslie, Brown, Howell, Warren, Vandenburg). That, particularly combined with the four rising freshmen, provides optimism for improvement in the returning players.
4. State’s defense should be at least marginally improved with the departure of Lewis and Vandenburg and the expected year over year improvement mentioned above.
5. Lacey is eligible and should be a big part of replacing Warren’s scoring. He also should be a better outside shooter than Warren, creating the possibility of multiple good 3 point shooters on the floor at once, something we haven’t had in Gott’s tenure so far. That, in turn, could help open up some space for post players and penetration.
6. Turner should be more effective getting most/all of his minutes at SF rather than SG.
Cons:
1. The ACC will be stronger. That is true just with Louisville replacing Maryland, without projecting any year over year improvement for other teams.
2. Warren was a truly great player and will obviously be missed.
That’s all I really have for cons. And even those are mitigated to some degree.
I don’t see any ACC teams other than Duke, UNC, Syracuse, Louisville, and UVA as being clearly better than State on paper. Other teams like Miami, Virginia Tech, etc. may improve, but so should State improve. I see no reason State cannot compete for finishing 5th or 6th in conference.
Warren’s loss will be a big loss, but I predict the growth of the roster and team will result in State (a) scoring more points per game next season AND (b) allowing fewer points per game next season. If those things happen, the team will have absorbed Warren’s departure just fine.
If Cat or Lacey gets hurt or sick next season (or in serious foul trouble), I seriously doubt a freshman Graham makes a significant difference over the combination of the senior Des plus the freshman twins.
We have a great rotation with or without Graham. Just split the 10 Graham minutes between Des and the twins.
^Misread the turnovers per game. Tyler averaged fewer per game (1.1 vs. 1.7) but averaged a higher turnover percentage as noted.
Cat looked to me like he was being coached by Whitt….in that he never knew when to pass…
Cat made a LOT of dumb plays where he used his “I always scored in HS” brain without realizing that he was playing in the ACC and not the AAU or whatever. He was not an assist person….
A lot of fans seem to significantly underestimate Cat’s improvement in this area and overestimate the gap between Cat and Tyler in this area.
Tyler averaged 3.8 assists per game this season; Cat averaged 3.5. Tyler’s assist percentage was 32.9% this season; Cat’s was 27.5%. Not a huge gap. And consider that Tyler’s assist percentage as a freshman was 17.9%, so Cat was considerably better than Tyler was as a freshman.
Tyler also turned the ball over more often than Cat (2.1 per game for Tyler vs. 1.7 per game for Cat; 17.5% turnover percentage for Tyler, compared to 16.1% for Cat).
1. Tyler saved our season which GOTT us the dance ticket LAST year starting in Charlottesville when Lo Brown was injured …
Once again, this is a gross overstatement. Are you trolling again, Bill?
Last season, Brown got hurt against UVA and missed the next two games against Miami and Duke. While Lewis played well in Brown’s absence, the fact is that we lost all three of those games.
Brown returned in the next game against Clemson and completely outplayed Lewis; it wasn’t even close. Lewis averaged 12 minutes per game from the Clemson game forward; in those 12 games, he totaled 47 points, 13 assists, and 8 turnovers.
Lewis performed well with Brown out last season, and we lost all three games anyway. After that, his contribution was minimal the rest of the season. He didn’t save anything last year.
He certainly made a valuable contribution to our team and our NCAA tournament selection this season, and I admire him for that. But he would have been the second best PG on the team going forward, and probably would have been fortunate to log 15 minutes per game had he stayed.
I’m sure he knew that and it figured into his decision. I don’t blame him, I like him, and I wish him well. But it’s not going to have a significant negative impact on our team going forward.
Wufpacker, I also had great seats that day. We were one of the first in line but……….
It was over Christmas break and the idea was to be general admission for all, take your pick. We all filed in, found our seats and then we had to more b/c the big wig donors got mad. I dont remember why this was a GA game to be honest but all I remember is V and Dickie V lobbying to let us keep our seats. Of course, we had to move.
How I remember it is that when we arrived at the game, one side of the court that was normally student seating was roped off. The university had assumed that fewer students would attend the game since it occurred during a break. I was in the end zone seats initially.
Then Coach V walked out and a student walked over to him and pointed at the roped off student seats and said something to him. V looked up at the crowd of students in the end zone and then waved his arm over to point at the roped off seats, prompting a mad scramble into those seats. I ended up near midcourt just a couple rows back.
As we got closer to game time, all the people who had bought the roped off tickets started to show up, and we were in their seats. The university broke out folding chairs and put them everywhere they could, and we got to stay in the seats. I specifically remember Chucky Brown’s brother being unhappy about it when he had to sit in a folding chair in the aisle.
Great memory. And yet another reason to love Coach V.
When it comes to defense, who is out recruiting for defensive guys? Who is being evaluated on their defensive capabilities?
Was Anya recruited for offense? I assume defense and rebounding was a big factor in our desire to recruit him. And I assume the same for Freeman.
I assume Washington may have been recruited more for offense than those two, but still probably with a belief that he could evolve into a good defensive player.
I think it’s a given that our staff expected both Cat and Lee to be/become strong defensive players when they were being recruited.
That’s a whole recruiting class for which I assume defense was a strong consideration.
I’m not sure about the Martin twins, but I’ve read that Abu is a strong defender.
I don’t think our issue on defense is that our players aren’t capable of playing sound defense. Tyler was a liability on defense, and it obviously is/was not a strength for Turner or Vandenburg. (Though Turner’s deficiency was probably exacerbated by having to mostly defend the 2 rather than the 3 this past season.)
So it looks to me like our coaching staff is generally recruiting players who are talented enough to play good defense. If there is an issue, it seems to be in the defensive coaching, whether that is time spent practicing defense or scheme.
Triad: Thanks for the link. It almost makes me cry to be honest. That’s the NC State that I grew up watching, not the garbage that has been on display from Les on. I loved all the changing defenses, full court pressure, tenacity and the fact that our team had real, undeniable talent. The administration at NC State should be ashamed of what they did to V.
Amen.
I was at that game. Enjoyed watching the video again last night. LOL at comparing Lewis to Corchiani.
1. Yeah… that’s a fair comparison… Corch as a senior v. Tyler as as freshman/soph…
Bill, perhaps you are trolling, as CD suggested. If not, IMO you are way off on this, and you just keep digging. Corchiani was a better shooter, scorer, defender, and leader from day one than Tyler has been. And that isn’t an insult to Tyler; Corchiani was an elite college PG and is a State legend.
From day one… we all saw glimpses of Monte Towe and Chris Corchiani in Tyler…
I am not old enough to have seen Towe play, but Corchiani played during my undergraduate years. I guess when you say “glimpses” it can be can’t really be argued, since a white State PG making some good passes can be argued to be “glimpses.” But that really isn’t saying anything substantive. And I don’t think there is any substantive similarity beyond position and race.
IMO he would have been the backup PG had he stayed, so to me this entire discussion is about our backup PG transferring out. It’s unfortunate, but it’s not necessarily going to be a significant impact on the program going forward.
