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IMO:
If we go 4-1 we are in. Assuming the loss would be @UNC, that would be 19-12 (10-8) with no bad losses against a top 10 SOS.
If we go 3-2 with one of the wins at UNC, we are also in. That would be 18-13 (9-9) against a top 10 SOS with 3 top 15 RPI wins, including 2 on the road.
I think both of those scenarios are possible, but perhaps not likely.
If we go 3-2 with a loss to UNC and win over VT (to avoid a very bad loss), I think we will likely be in even without an ACC tournament win, but 1 ACC tournament win would definitely clinch it.
If we go 2-3, or 3-2 with losses to UNC and VT (which would be the worst loss of the season by far), we probably have to win at least 1 in the ACC tournament, 2 would clinch it.
If we go 1-4 without beating UNC, we have to make it to the ACC tournament final to have a chance, and probably have to win it.
If we go 0-5, we have to win the ACC tournament.
FWIW, Dance Card currently has State with a 99.32% chance at a bid.
TeX – define margin of error. If we go 4-1 we’re in. 3-2, it will come down tournament.
I agree if we go 4-1 we are in. Assuming the loss would be @UNC, that would be 19-12 (10-8) with no bad losses against a top 10 SOS.
If we go 3-2 with one of the wins at UNC, we are also in. That would be 18-13 (9-9) against a top 10 SOS with 3 top 15 RPI wins, including 2 on the road.
I think both of those scenarios are possible, but perhaps not likely.
If we go 3-2 with a loss to UNC and win over VT (to avoid a very bad loss), I think we will likely be in even without an ACC tournament win, but 1 ACC tournament win would definitely clinch it.
If we go 2-3, or 3-2 with losses to UNC and VT (which would be the worst loss of the season by far), we probably have to win at least 1 in the ACC tournament, 2 would clinch it.
If we go 1-4 without beating UNC, we have to make it to the ACC tournament final to have a chance, and probably have to win it.
If we go 0-5, we have to win the ACC tournament.
FWIW, Dance Card currently has State with a 99.32% chance at a bid.
I was a freshman at State in 1986-87. I will never forget that ACC tournament. Definitely one of my best State memories ever. And sadly not likely to be eclipsed in my lifetime…
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Rick wrote:</div>
Even if no one transfers, we will not have enough scholarship players to scrimmage.I really wish Lewis and Purvis would have stayed
Couldn’t disagree more. Both guys showed that they could not accept low minutes with a healthy attitude. And neither guy would be getting hardly any playing time right now. No way either one of them would be getting non-trivial minutes over Cat, Lacey, Turner, and/or the twins. They just aren’t good enough. Which means they would be hurting the team with their attitudes.
Even if no one transfers, we will not have enough scholarship players to scrimmage.
I don’t believe Gott will bring in zero scholarship players for the next class. I expect he will bring in at least 2, whether freshmen or transfers. If so, we will have at least 10 scholarship players as long as we have no more than 1 player leave unexpectedly.
I agree with the idea that if Gott loses multiple current players to transfer and doesn’t sign any notable recruits, it will make his seat much hotter for next year.
When State gets a 10+ point lead, 38% of the time the game is later narrowed to a one-possession game and 24% of the time State loses.
When State falls into a 10+ point hole, 43% of the time the game is later narrowed to a one-possession game and 26% of the time State wins.Right?
So my takeaway is that we are not any better or worse at holding big leads than our opponents. There are more total comebacks against State than vice versa, of course, because (fortunately) we’re up big more than we’re down big.
Thanks for putting this together.
Really good teams win more close games than they lose, hold onto a lead once they have it, come back from a cold shooting streak, etc.
Note that State does not meet this definition of “really good”.
I also feel, that any game, we can win – no matter who we play. And I NEVER felt that way with Sendek or Sidney.
I agree with all of these posts. I know many don’t feel like the program has made progress or is in a good place, but I remain stubbornly optimistic.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>PackFamily wrote:</div>
Our current coaching staff is as good as any in the league except maybe one…Oh how I wish there was evidence to support this ridiculous claim.
I will take it a step further. IMO Yow should direct Gott to shake up the staff after this season. IMO we should replace Lutz and one other assistant coach.
WTF with Turner guarding Georges-Hunt in late game situations? Every other perimeter player on the team would have been a better choice.
Just watched the game. Not sure if this was addressed, but WTF on having Turner in late game situations covering Georges-Hunt? Why not Cat or Des or one of the Martins or Lacey?
I expect we will make the tournament. And I don’t see us firing Gott if he makes 4 straight tournaments, especially given he has shown that he can bring in quality talent. Ask Georgia Tech fans if they would rather have a head coach who can land talent but isn’t a great coach (Hewitt) or a head coach who is a great coach but can’t land talent (Gregory). I suspect they all prefer the former.
Gott is the best coach we have had since Valvano. Valvano coached his last game at State in 1990… nearly 25 years ago. State has hired 4 head coaches since then: Robinson, Sendek, Lowe, Gott. In at least the last 3 of those searches, the fan base thought we would land a top coach. But no top coaches have been interested enough to take the job in decades… Valvano wasn’t a top coach when he was hired. A top coach isn’t walking through that door.
We have tried the up and coming young coach. That was Sendek, and we all know how badly that worked out.
I am as frustrated as anyone that our team isn’t doing better this season. But IMO our fans need to be careful what they wish for.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>ancsu87 wrote:</div>
. In this day and age unless your KU or Duke I would rather get the steady solid players that stay for 4 years with the Warren type McD AA throw in occasionally.I happen to agree but there are a couple of problems with your theory in regards to NCSU.<br>
1) We are averaging two players a year to transfer. So we either are always going to be young or bring in transfers. Neither of which fit into your scenario.<br>
2) Recruiting that TJ Warren type player. Two years ago I guess you could argue Cat is supposed to be that player. He’s not. This year. no player like that. Next year, no player like that.So to sumarize, we lose too many players to be able to rely on four year players and we have not been able to recruit a “TJ Warren” type player in two (and you could argue three) years. We are not exactly following that particular path to success.
You continue to stubbornly ignore what has already been pointed out regarding transfers. 5 of the 7 transfers out happened before Gott’s second season began. That can be attributed to the coaching transition. In the 2 years since, we have had 2 transfers out of the program: Lewis and Purvis. We are not averaging two players per year to transfer.
The fact that the fouls are 62/40 is interesting but the FT’s taken per foul is interesting as well.
To some degree that disparity has to do with the style of offense and aggressiveness on offense. It seems that most teams put themselves in position to draw fouls more often on offense.
It also has to do with the fact that we give extensive minutes to 4 sophomores and 3 freshmen, and those players make both stupid fouls at times and at other times fouls due to being unnecessarily aggressive. And we have a 5th year senior who is a bad defender and reaches too much.
I am reminded of Hanlon’s Razor: never attribute to malice that which can be explained by stupidity/incompetence. In this case, there is incompetence in officiating and also in our team’s ability to play defense without fouling.
this is the best we’ve had since V
Agree. IMO people who wish for a Gott replacement should be careful what they wish for.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>VaWolf82 wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Tau837 wrote:</div>
He already has 9 rotation players for next season: Barber, Lacey, the Martins, Henderson, Anya, Abu, Washington, and Freeman.Dollars to doughnuts that they won’t all be back next year. Hasn’t happened yet, so I don’t look for this year to be any different.
I think Gott is averaging two transfers a year (maybe more).
In 4 offseasons to date:
Lewis
Purvis
Painter
Harris
TDT
Raymond
HarrowI’d chalk 4 of them up to coaching transition, which is no longer a factor. And only 2 of the players have been Gott’s recruits. Meanwhile, Gott has brought in these transfers:
Lacey
Turner
Henderson
Lee
JohnsonIMO we have come out ahead on these as a whole.
Two years ago he recruited three McD AAs (of course they all left).
I don’t see how you can spin Warren leaving as a negative for Gott’s recruiting or coaching.
Yes, unfortunately, Tyler was overmatched at the major conference level… again, that doesn’t reflect on Gott’s coaching… I suppose you could argue that he should have recognized his deficiencies and not recruited him… is that what you are suggesting? Then the critics would be more empowered to say Gott never gets top recruits…
Yes, unfortunately, Purvis had a bad attitude. I suppose that could reflect on Gott… not able to manage him effectively, not able to coach him up…
So “they all left” reflects some negativity on Gott, but not as bad as implied.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Tau837 wrote:</div>
He already has 9 rotation players for next season: Barber, Lacey, the Martins, Henderson, Anya, Abu, Washington, and Freeman.Dollars to doughnuts that they won’t all be back next year. Hasn’t happened yet, so I don’t look for this year to be any different.
By this point last year, there was reason to believe Tyler would transfer. By this point the previous season, Purvis was struggling to fit in. Painter was for family reasons. IMO the other transfers were fallout from coaching transition.
This team is different. There are no signs of disgruntled players, i.e., no signs of Tyler/Purvis situations. Everyone in the rotation seems to have accepted his role, even as those roles and associated playing time have varied. There is no coaching transition, so no reason for that to cause a transfer.
I don’t expect any transfers out. I’ll put up a box of donuts against your dollars…
His recruiting is dropping like a rock. He was getting top 25 players now it is top 75 and next year he has no recruits, only a transfer commited.
He already has 9 rotation players for next season: Barber, Lacey, the Martins, Henderson, Anya, Abu, Washington, and Freeman. How many top recruits do you think will sign up for that? Do you think Barber or Lacey or the Martins or our group of bigs are suddenly going to get benched?
The following class is the one he seems to be targeting, which is fine. Lacey will be gone, opening up a lot of minutes. And we will have 4 seniors in Barber, Anya, Washington, and Freeman, so it is an easier sell to good recruits to come in and play a smaller role for one season to prep for a big role the next.
On top of all of that, Gott has been great at pulling in quality transfers, and he could easily do that again for next year.
Had to watch the game on tape delay and just read the game thread. Comments:
1. To those bashing Gott for the team blowing the big lead… in the first half, State shot 62% and ND shot 37%, or something like that. When I saw those halftime numbers, I fully expected State to shoot worse and ND to shoot better and expected it to become a close game. That’s not on Gott.
2. However, like BJD, I was puzzled by the lack of minutes for Cat against the top offense in the nation, which is a completely perimeter-based offense. Like BJD, I was saying at halftime that Cat should start and play the majority of the second half to try to proactively prevent the expected ND second half run. IMO that was a coaching mistake on Gott.
3. I am one who typically tries to resist complaining about officiating, but I thought it was pretty poor tonight. Phantom foul calls on our bigs definitely hurt. I was furious about two plays in particular. First, the play where Martin was called for a perimeter foul and they awarded the shooter 3 free throws. His foot was on the line! And he made the third free throw, so that was an extra point they should not have had. Second, the call where the ND defender went over Martin’s back right in front of the ref, who called the ball out off Martin. Martin was mauled on it and Gott went ballistic.
4. As someone else posted, I couldn’t figure out why we didn’t sub in a big after the turnover on the long pass with 16 seconds left. On the next possession, ND played volleyball until they got the basket. Again, I think that was a bad decision by Gott.
5. Despite his flaws, I like Gott. Despite its flaws, I like this team. They don’t quit. And IMO they are on the verge of putting it all together. They have proven they can play with the best in the country — they played well enough to be in position to win against Duke, UVA, UNC, and ND… sure, they only won one of them, but the point is that this team can play with the best. I believe wins are coming in more of these games.
6. I think we will make the NCAA tournament this year. And I think next year, losing only Des and Turner, but gaining Henderson, we are going to be a really good team, a team that can challenge for top 4 in conference.
On that note, maybe the staff liked what they saw in the press – I certainly did. It seemed to really energize the guys late. Probably don’t want to try it all the time or against everyone – but I thought it was effective in changing the game flow.
I realize this isn’t normally part of Gott’s approach, but I have been disappointed in our lack of use of the press this season. We have a team that should be extremely well suited to doing it, even doing it extensively. We could sub in 5 for 5 if needed, and each of those teams would have long, quick, athletic guys up front in the press and solid bigs at the back to protect the rim. For example:
Cat, Cody, Turner, Abu, Washington
Lacey, Des, Caleb, Freeman, AnyaI’m not a big Shaka Smart fan, but can you imagine how effective this team’s press would be under him?
There are only 3 games left on State’s schedule that would be upsets for State to win: UVA, @Louisville, and @UNC.
But we played UVA within 10 points on the road and UNC within 2 points at home, and it feels like our team is still getting better. They will be favored, but it wouldn’t be a Duke-caliber upset if we beat either of them.
I certainly don’t expect State to win all of the other 9 games. But we could also win 1 of the 3 underdog games. Altogether, I am expecting 7-8 more wins in the regular season as long as the players in the rotation stay healthy/available.
I see 6-6 as a floor. Anything less than that would be a disappointment for sure.
TAFKAWBS had to go, because he was maybe the worst defender I have seen in the league (among regular game participants) in a decade. Sorry, but you can’t play guys like that, no matter how they give you happy “Scrappy Doo” feels. He’s going to be a backup guard for Butler, a second-tier new Big East program. The market doesn’t lie. He wasn’t going to play here, because he wasn’t good enough. Period, full stop.
Agree 100%. Had Lewis stayed, he wouldn’t be playing. Cat and Lacey would be ahead of him for PG minutes, and possibly Des as well. I assume Lewis saw it coming and it was a big factor in his transfer decision. I wish him well, but I don’t think he is missed on this team.
I’d like to know the +/- with Cat on/off the court for the Duke & UNC games. It looked very much like our offense was so much more productive when Martin was on the floor and Cat was not.
Cat has had 6 games this season with a negative +/-:
-2 Purdue
-13 Wofford
-6 WVU
-17 Cincinnati
-7 UVA
-8 UNCUnsurprisingly, those are State’s 6 losses. But I’m not sure how helpful this info really is. He averaged over 31 mpg in those games, and they were losses.
He was +4 against Duke.
Meanwhile, Caleb Martin has 8 games this season with a negative +/-, including 5 of the same games:
-2 Hofstra
-5 Purdue
-3 Tennessee
-6 WVU
-4 Cincinnati
-11 UVA
-3 Duke
-9 UNCCat’s +/- was better against all of UVA, Duke, and UNC. Caleb averaged just over 13 mpg in those games.
Cody Martin has 4 games this season with a negative +/-:
-3 Purdue
-6 Louisiana Tech
-3 UVA
-2 UNCHe was outstanding against Duke at +24.
It’s hard to compare Cody’s sample against the others, because Cody didn’t play in 7 games and had averaged less than 10 mpg in the games he did play entering today. He has played very well lately, though.
Cody was awesome today. I was surprised Caleb only played 2 minutes. I realize Anya, Turner, and Cody all played well, and that was no doubt part of it, since there are only so many minutes to go around… but I was still surprised he played so little. Was it just how well the others were playing?
Nice post, Bill. And great discussion.
*Note: If I can get one of the actual creators of Wooden’s offense to break a State game down for us, I will pass it on.
Please do, CD.
