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1. Giving up less points per game does not equal a better defense, especially when comparing to previous seasons. An easy way to give up less PPG is to slow down the tempo giving teams fewer possessions. If you aren’t doing the slowing down then the other team could be the one doing it by trying to stay close, i.e. Bennett, Sendek, etc.
2. Not sure where your numbers are coming from but middle of the conference isn’t bad, it isn’t good either.
3. Again, not sure where your numbers are coming from but net rating doesn’t equal good defense, just the difference between offense and defense.
4. Again holding opponents under 65 points doesn’t equate to a good defense. Over those 5 games did State hold those 5 teams under their seasonal averages in points, offensive efficiency, four factors? I don’t know but looking at the Clemson/State game CU was under their seasonal averages for Adj. ORtg, efg% and FTRate but had a lower TO% on offense and had a higher OR%. So in 1 of those games State made it more difficult for Clemson in some ways but not all.As for improved defense State currently is 5pts lower than last year’s final Adj. DRtg and 0.5 pts lower than the previous year’s but historically this team is less than a point away from the average Adj. DRtg for teams under Gottfried since 2002. Let’s not go overboard here touting Gottfried for “improved” defense. It’s only improved because last year’s defense was so awful you can’t get much worse. It’s like trying to compare Gottfried to Lowe, sure he’s an improvement but that’s a pretty low bar you’re using.
I took numbers from http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/.
I understand all of your points. The fact remains, this team is a better defensive team. And I don’t see many posters in this forum talking about that, though I have seen a lot of posters bashing Gott for defense over the years. I’m not saying that hasn’t been warranted, though I think it may have gone overboard at times. I am simply noting that it is improved.
Context Matters
Agree and yet you choose to nitpick a point made to counter the assumption that no one would transfer after this year.
Context matters.
I did not address any comment saying we should not assume there will be no transfers this offseason. I addressed a comment that said Gott averages 2 transfers per year. Technically, he averages 1.75 transfers per year. But applying context, he has lost 1 transfer per year from his own recruits and after the dust settled on the transition.
2 transfers per year is twice as many as 1 transfer per year. If that is nitpicking, so be it.
No one is arguing my point that we should expect at least one transfer out
I responded to your statement that Gott has averaged 2 transfers per year, which is incorrect. He has had 7 transfers in 4 offseasons:
Harrow
Painter
Raymond
TDT
Harris
Lewis
PurvisThat is less than 2/year. It is also true that he only had 2 in the past 2 offseasons, and he has only had 2 of ‘his’ players transfer — Purvis and Lewis. IMO it is fair to attribute the first 5 transfers to the coaching transition.
Also, it is worth noting that Harrow, TDT, Harris, Purvis, and Lewis were reported to have bad attitudes and/or have been unwilling to accept their roles. IMO each of their transfers was addition by subtraction. Painter’s situation was supposedly family-related. And Raymond never should have been signed to play at State in the first place (by Lowe).
Context matters. To tout an average of 2 transfers/year is not only wrong but also ignores all reasonable context.
It is reasonable to expect 0-1 transfers per year. More than 1 would be an exception. As others have pointed out, this is part of today’s college basketball landscape.
I would not assume one of our players will transfer this offseason. The past two offseasons, it was rumored or known that Purvis and Lewis were unhappy with their roles. I am not aware that any such thing is known about any current players. The only one who I could see really taking that stance is Washington, but I’m not aware of anything factual on that.
Also, as has been pointed out, we can also take comfort in Gott’s results in bringing quality transfers in to offset the transfers out of the program. This is a quality group of players, and IMO is clearly better than the group that transferred out:
Alex Johnson
Trevor Lacey
Ralston Turner
Desmond Lee
Terry HendersonState’s current ratings this season:
Offensive rating: 113.84
Defensive rating: 92.05
Spread: 21.79If we are using data like this to judge our team’s performance and potential, looks like we are very capable of a S16/E8 run.
I agree with Trout’s take, as I posted in previous threads. IMO one more win and we are in, regardless of whether it is Syracuse or an ACC tournament win.
So we’ve seen plenty of bashing of Gott’s ability to coach a team that plays good defense.
State has given up the 7th fewest ppg (65.2) in the conference, which is slightly better than average.
State has the 8th best defensive rating (92.05) in the conference — exactly middle of the conference.
State has the 6th best net rating (+21.79), behind only UVA, Duke, UNC, Lousiville, ND.In this closing stretch, they have held 5 of 6 opponents to 65 points or fewer, and they are 4-1 in those games.
Is anyone yet willing to give Gott and staff any credit for improved defense?
Meanwhile, State has still been solid on offense:
State is 4th in the conference in ppg (70.6).
State has the 5th best offensive rating (113.84) in the conference.Like all fans, I want more wins and better performance. But it just seems that a lot of State fans have made up their minds that Gott is the wrong guy, and they fit all results into that predetermined perspective. As they say, haters gonna hate.
Given he is averaging two transfers a year
He isn’t averaging two transfers per year. We’ve been over this multiple times. If you want to make a case for why Gott has disappointed or isn’t the right coach for us, have at it. But stick to actual facts rather than exaggeration.
He, lee, and turner start. The tim wells debacle was a season long fiasco of the wood chopper. Sr. Day was just the top of the woodpile.
I don’t know the circumstances of battles dwi but why is that relevant? He starts. And I hope coach buys them all a cold one for the ride home.This. It would be very surprising to me if Gott doesn’t start all three seniors.
IMO:
Out:
3 more losses = 100% out, even if we make ACC tournament final
Less than 2 more winsIn:
Win ACC tournament
2+ more wins, regardless of which onesI don’t see us winning the ACC tournament, so it’s very simple. Win at least 2 more games.
Overall losses means about as much to the bubble discussion as our team nicknames do
I don’t disagree with your overall point, but, if State loses again in the regular season and does not win the ACC tournament, that means 14 losses. It is worth noting that only 6 teams with 14 losses have been at-large selections since 1985:
Arizona 2008 19-14 (.576)
Georgia 2001 16-14 (.533)
Villanova 1991 16-14 (.533)
Kansas State 1990 17-14 (.548)
Villanova 1990 18-14 (.563)
LSU 1987 21-14 (.600)Only 2 teams in the past 23 tournaments.
Presumably it is very rare for a team with 14 losses to have the resume State has, so they could be the next such team. But what they really need to do is just win the last two regular season games. IMO that will lock up a bid.
I have generally been a Gott supporter, and I still am. But I wish he showed more fire sometimes. He hasn’t exhibited any today, even though it was warranted.
This is why we drink
This
Cat, Lacey, and Turner are 8/28 with 20 combined points and no free throw attempts. This team won’t beat any team with that performance from them.
If this spurs a comeback, even if it falls short, I wish it would cause Gott to rethink doing this more often. This meaning more mass subs and at least short bursts of pressure defense. We have the athletes to do it.
Whole team substitution. Result: blocked shot on defense, Des at the line on offense. Should have happened sooner.
They look resigned to defeat.
Agreed. Would like to see both Martins in together for a stretch. Maybe Cat, Martins, Des, Abu for a few minutes to see if it elevates our energy.
I’d go smaller, try to speed it up, and press and trap
I don’t disagree with this, just to try to change it up and increase pace. But BC strikes me as a team that should be able to handle a press.
