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^OK, much more interesting that he is a PG. I agree we should try to sign him in that case. But I also share the skepticism given that he would be behind Cat for 2 years (with no real relief at SG for 2 years due to Lacey/Henderson)… will he be willing to play off the bench?
Reading on my phone so didn’t really examine the charts and tables. But the biggest issue that leads me to doubt the validity of this method from your writeup is the reference to two runner up caliber teams from HWSNBN.
It would be interesting to use this method to examine deep runs by “Cinderella” teams past like UConn (recent), Butler (recent), Nova ’85, Pack ’83, etc.
Alabama has experienced its first shakeup in recruiting after Anthony Grant was fired Sunday. Dazon Ingram, a shooting guard from Theodore, Ala. has decommitted from the Tide.
“Coach Grant and Coach (Antoine) Pettway were the main reasons I committed to Alabama,” Ingram said. “I really liked those guys. I talked to the AD (Bill Battle) yesterday and I asked him who was going to be the next coach. He told me he wasn’t sure. So then I asked him if Coach Pettway was going to be there and he said that’s the new coach’s decision. So I felt like I had to do what’s best for me and I guess Alabama wasn’t right.”
Ingram, a three-star recruit, was rated the No. 68 shooting guard in the country per the 247Sports Composite. He has already received interest from USC, North Carolina State, and Tennessee.
Found this on the internet. SG, not PG, unless this is a different guy.
Not sure I really get going after a 3 star SG at this point.
under the Cat’s paw
Love this phrase.
Someone mentioned that the ACC is working on making Notre Dame a full conference member and adding a 16th team. Anyone know who the prospective 16th team might be?
Maybe that would set the stage for four 4 team divisions, with one of them reuniting the Big 4. That would mean home and home with division opponents and one game against all others in the conference to get to the 18 game schedule. That would ensure imbalanced SOS, but I would still prefer that as a fan to what we have now.
Of course, in that scenario, Swofford would probably come up with a worse system.
I could see any 2 of the 3 main bigs starting.
IMO if Anya puts in the work and continues transforming his body, he will be a lock to start. If he doesn’t, he will almost certainly be the one to come off the bench.
I hope Anya puts in the work. Gott has been quoted as saying he would be one of the best players in the country if he works hard enough. I agree with him. Anya is in position to earn himself big, big dollars if he is willing to do it.
I expect Abu will start, regardless. He seems to have the highest offensive ceiling of our bigs, and also could have an NBA future.
I could see KW leaving if he would transfer based solely on playing time. I am hopeful that instead he will put in a lot of hard work and try to earn more minutes.
I could see it from the Martins as well, again if they would make that decision based only on minutes. If they would do that, signing another 5* SG/SF might not help, though I assume our odds of doing that are not high. Again, I’d prefer to see them put in the work to earn more playing time. As things stand right now, they can both play an important role off the bench next season. And the year after that, Lacey’s departure will open up significant minutes. If they stay, that would put them in position to take a big jump in minutes, even if Gott brings in a top recruit in 2016-17, since they would be seasoned juniors.
But even for KW and the Martins, how many places are there that would be both (a) better for them, with guaranteed role/playing time and (b) worth sitting out a season? I know they are all talented. I’m not saying there are not a lot of good programs who would want them. The question is how many of those would actually be better for them?
How many guys who have transferred out of Gott’s program have found themselves in better situations?
Harrow moved on to flop at Kentucky after sitting out a season and now plays at Georgia State in the Sun Belt Conference. Did that work out the way he envisioned? I would say no.
TDT never played college basketball again. Maybe that worked out for him since he was from Europe, but that isn’t really comparable to any of our current players. Apples and oranges.
Raymond sat out a season and has since played 2 seasons for Middle Tennessee State. He plays 27 mpg, though he doesn’t produce much with those minutes. IMO this is a case of a player who never should have been recruited and is now playing at the right level for him. So it was a good move for him, but that isn’t comparable to any of our current rotation players, all of whom are good enough to play at the major conference level. Apples and oranges.
Tyler Harris transferred to Providence and has averaged 30 mpg, 11 ppg, and 5 rpg there. He has been a solid player there, and certainly would not have gotten those minutes at State. So it probably worked out for him, though I suspect not in the way he and his father envisioned when he left.
Painter played one final season at ODU and played 29 mpg, averaging 13 ppg and 8 rpg. A nice season. But not really comparable to current players, since he had a family illness situation. Not only was that supposedly his reason, which hopefully doesn’t apply to any of our current players, but it also meant he did not have to sit out a season. Apples and oranges.
Maybe Purvis is in a better situation, since he probably would have lost minutes to Lacey and Henderson. But he is only playing 2 mpg more than he did in his season at State. He is averaging a couple more ppg and his other numbers are virtually identical to his time at State. He certainly hasn’t shown to be a star in waiting who was unjustly held down by Gott. And now he is playing in the AAC. Was it worth it?
Lewis will almost certainly be in a better situation, since he was overmatched in the ACC, especially on defense, and he probably needed the extra year to adjust, get stronger, etc. But will he go on to be a star player? I doubt it.
So… which of these situations bode well for KW or the Martins transferring? None, really. Harrow, Harris, and Purvis are really the only situations somewhat comparable to our current players. I suppose Tyler Harris is the best success story so far, and at least he is in a middle tier conference. Is that what any of our players wants? I hope not.
The fact is, if players want to leave State and go somewhere where they feel certain to get a bigger role and bigger minutes, they almost have to go to lower tier programs and conferences. I hope they recognize that they are better off working hard to make it work for them at State.
North (a.k.a. the Big East division): Syracuse, BC, Pitt, Notre Dame, Louisville
Central: State, UNC, Duke, UVA, VT
South: FSU, Miami, GT, Clemson, WakeWhy is this in State’s best interests?
I didn’t post it specifically because I think it would be good for State. I posted it because I think it is an improvement for the conference over the current system. And because as a fan I would like to see State play both UNC and Duke twice every season.
That being said, how much different is it for State’s schedule? Worst case, 1 more game vs. Duke and UVA. But possibly at least partially offset by 1 fewer game vs. Louisville, Notre Dame, Syracuse, et al. and 1 more game vs. VT.
To be more specific, why is it in State’s interest to have amongst the toughest basketball schedules year after year?
Well, it seems that this season is a perfect example of why. State has 13 losses, including 2 bad losses, and is just above .500 in conference at 11-9. Yet they are viewed to be safely in the tournament, perhaps as high as an 8 seed.
Why is that? First reason is their top SOS, which is exactly what you are asking about. So it is self-evident.
The second reason is the 3 top 25 wins. Well, you can’t get those wins without playing the games.
Last year, I predicted lewis would transfer. I didn’t have any scoop – just a good melody, an understanding of the way college basketball works and IQ over 59.
Apples and oranges. It was obvious that Lewis was overmatched in the ACC and there was a better PG on the roster. I’m sure to Lewis is was obvious that Gott would choose Cat over him. I don’t think many people who follow the team were surprised at his transfer, so I’m not sure why you predicting it is meaningful.
Tau – I am simply saying that I think there’s a decent chance 1 (or even 2) will weigh their options. Of those 2, barber is more likely (especially after the scare last night.)
Why? Why is there a decent chance that Cat, Lacey, or Anya will weigh their options? Any of them would be foolish to go pro… is that what you are referring to you when referencing Cat’s “scare”? If Anya went pro, he might get drafted, but probably late second round at best. I strongly doubt Cat or Lacey would get drafted.
So you are likely talking about transferring. They all appear to have fine relationships with the coaching staff and their teammates. They are all locked in as starters. They have all improved in their time in the program.
If you have a basis for posting this stuff, then say so. If you don’t, and this is simply idle speculation, why post it at all?
But what I am saying is we can’t afford to lose cat, Anya or lacy if we want a special season.
Fine, then say that and leave it at that, unless you have a basis to say more.
We typically have one early departure for the league at least one transfer. So I won’t be surprised if we have another.
Yes, we have typically had one or more departures from the program. One was talented enough that it made sense to go pro early, and he did. We had one who transferred due to a family situation. The rest transferred due to role/playing time. None of those reasons apply to Barber, Lacey, or Anya, unless there is a family illness we don’t know about.
If you noticed I haven’t criticized gott for transfers or kids for going pro or even kids for transferring… But please by all means feel free to start stuff with me. I have only been a die hard pack fan for 25 years I obviously just want to start stuff.
Pretty much everyone who posts in this forum is a die hard Pack fan. I have been for 30 years. That doesn’t give you a free pass to post negative stuff like this without any basis.
You are one of the best posters in this forum. I’m surprised to be having this exchange with you, but I have to call it like I see it.
Heelh8tr – I should have said “who could be weighing the option” of leaving…. I don’t think Abu or Freeman are going anywhere.
So since he said Cat, Lacey, Abu, Anya, Freeman, you are implying that Cat, Lacey, and/or Anya may be weighing their options on transferring?
If you are saying that, based on what?
If you aren’t, why post this BS?
you could move to a 23 game conference schedule,
If you’re going to dream, you should start with something that might happen in this reality.
There was a time when no one could envision an 18 game schedule. Or a 15 team ACC. Just saying.
I believe the first play Washington was in the game was when his man Plumlee dunked on an inbounds play because Washington lost him.
IMO that sums up why Washington hasn’t been playing. Anya, Freeman, and Abu are all better players, because Washington is a poor defensive player. Many fans perceive him as a better offensive player, but he really isn’t:
– His shot selection is poor
– He is worse than all of our other bigs at offensive rebounding, likely because he spends too much time on the perimeter
– He has a terrible free throw rate, again because he is too perimeter-oriented, so he rarely gets to the line and rarely draws fouls on the opposing big menThe other bigs may not have as much skill in terms of shooting and scoring, but they are generally better at offensive rebounding and setting screens, which is an important role for our bigs on offense. Freeman is the epitome of the guy who does important dirty work, and Anya and Abu have the highest upside and need the minutes to keep improving. There are only so many minutes.
I like KW and hope he doesn’t transfer. But he deserves to be the fourth big in the rotation right now, and a tighter rotation often will not have many minutes for the fourth when the first three are playing well and not in foul trouble.
I wish the conference would consider going to three 5 team divisions for all sports that include Notre Dame as a full participant:
North (a.k.a. the Big East division): Syracuse, BC, Pitt, Notre Dame, Louisville
Central: State, UNC, Duke, UVA, VT
South: FSU, Miami, GT, Clemson, WakeAdmittedly, it feels artificial to stick Wake in the South division. But it seems like either them, UVA, or VT, as it does not make sense to split the Triangle universities.
Anyway, in a system like this, you could move to a 23 game conference schedule, where each team plays every team in its division twice, every team in one other division twice, and every team in the remaining division once, with the latter two divisions alternating each year.
That would not solve all of the schedule imbalance, but it would reduce it. It would also serve to rid us of the artificial “rivalries” that were mentioned above. And, other than possibly Wake and the rest of the Big 4 universities, it doesn’t feel like this setup would actually divorce any real/traditional rivalries. And, even where it does that, they still play 5 times every 3 seasons in this setup.
One thing an odd numbered game schedule would mean is that half of the teams in the conference would have 12 home games and half would have 11. I suppose one answer to that is to bump it to 24 games and randomly play one team in the single game division twice. Or leave it, and ensure the teams with the extra road games are home for the Big 10 challenge, which means all teams could have 19 home games if they so choose.
This season, State had 23 home games. So this would represent sacrificing 4 home games per season, at least for as long as teams are constrained to 31 total regular season games. Even though I would think that 3 extra home conference games would draw more attendance than games against the likes of Jackson State, Wofford, Jacksonville, USF, Charleston Southern, et al., I assume this would still be a net negative from a revenue perspective.
It would also very likely serve to reduce the number of times teams would be willing to schedule non-conference road games, which would deprive us of occasional interesting matchups and potentially deprive programs of greater national exposure. And I expect the coaches wouldn’t like this because they would have less time to prepare their teams for the conference season.
It also could make it more difficult to assess relative strength of teams in the ACC vs. other conferences, since they would have a reduced non-conference schedule to assess.
But I don’t see conferences reverting and getting smaller again. So as a fan I would prefer something like this, even with the cons it represents. I realize it will never happen, though. At least not unless the NCAA bumps the max number of regular season games to 35 or so.
Be Cat…Be Cat…Be Cat.
This.
I’d be fine with not signing any top recruits for next season from the standpoint that we don’t really need help next season (barring unexpected departures) and thus may not want to deal with playing time issues.
But it will be a tough transition when our current sophomore class (Barber, Anya, Freeman, Washington, Henderson) leaves in two years if we essentially skip the class that is two years behind them.
^In that case, he will probably play more than 20 minutes per game, leaving fewer minutes for the twins. I don’t see Cat and Lacey playing less than 32-35 mpg unless our team is suddenly winning a lot of blowouts.
Regarding the twins, it could easily be something like this:
35 mpg – Cat
32 mpg – Lacey
20 mpg – Henderson
19 mpg – Caleb
14 mpg – CodyI think Gott could make that work. Now, if Gott lands a 5* SG (Newman) or SF (Ingram), that would create a true challenge, because no 5* is going to redshirt these days, so you’d have to assume he would get at least 15 mpg as a freshman, maybe more.
Does anyone have a good read on exactly how good Henderson is? Does he deserve more minutes than I threw out here?
As for the possibility of playing Kentucky, I think that would be a great outcome. Our team is good enough to win and is playing its best ball of the season. Gott has already coached this team to a number of big wins, including a win over the #1 team (Duke a couple seasons ago). And I think we would actually match up pretty well against them.
There are some teams ahead of State in the RPI rankings that will not even make the field
Like who?
The question I have is whether JB flies the finger to the NCAA and retires now, whether he decides to stick out the whole set of sanctions to turn over a better situation to the next coach, or whether he coaches one more year and hangs it up. If he does the first or the latter, I suspect Syracuse will struggle a bit to find a successor.
My understanding is that they have already identified Boeheim’s successor. His assistant who handled the press conference, Mike Hopkins, is the head coach in waiting.
I like all of our players, including KW. But:
– He seems to be the worst defender of our bigs. I’m basing this on watching games, not advanced metrics, not sure if anyone can substantiate this.
– He does not make up for that with offense. Fans seem to think he is a good offensive player because he has good range for a big, but he is shooting .446 on 2 point shots this season because his shot selection is poor. And he is the worst offensive rebounder of our bigs and has an abysmal free throw rate since he doesn’t take the ball inside.
I for one agree that hte defense has improved. We are not a bad defensive team now.
At the same time it seems the offense has become more stagnant and ineffective.
My hope for Gott was he would improve the defense to at least an average level (done) while keeping the offensive efficiency he has had in the past (it has slipped, at least objectively).Agree that watching games, it seems the offense has slipped. Yet:
State is 4th in the conference in ppg (70.6).
State has the 5th best offensive rating (113.84) in the conference.Some of State’s offense slipping has to do with the SOS. Some of it has to do with slower pace, whether by our choice or as dictated by opponents. Some of it has to do with the dropoff from Buckets to Lacey, who has not been playing particularly well down the stretch. And in comparison to before last season, the dropoff from Brown, Leslie, Howell, Wood to the current group, which is not nearly as skilled offensively.
The fact is, our current personnel lends itself to better defense than our previous groups, but also does not lend itself as well to strong offense. And we are seeing both of those things reflected in our play.
