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True but not relevant because the same issue would exist with anyone that State is looking to hire. If State were looking for a new coach (and we’re not), then Archie already has everything that State would want.
There are many posters on this site who are certain they know how good Archie will be. Just ask them.
If Gott retired or were fired today, I would be in favor of hiring Archie. I just don’t think he is the slam dunk that so many make him out to be.
Granted, as I said earlier, my opinions are possibly tainted because of my thoughts on the hiring process, Gott and my view of year 2. I’d make the move. But, I’m also someone who would rather have a chance at something great and risk something worse than muddle along in the middle.
I don’t like your last sentence much. It could be read to imply that anyone who feels Gott should not be fired right now is content to muddle along in the middle rather than take a risk. I don’t see it as the binary choice that presents.
Gott has been here for 5 seasons. Compare those 5 to the previous 5. He has his flaws, but he has obviously elevated the program from what he inherited:
– 4 NCAA bids and 2 Sweet 16s over that span; winning ACCT and NCAAT records
– Signed 11 4 star players, 1 5 star player, and some other solid players to augment (Freeman, Turner, Henderson, Dorn)
– Elevated media profileThen he had 1 down year. Is that really where our expectations are and should be? That one bad year is enough to fire him no matter what happened previously? Even the very best programs don’t hold the bar that high.
Can you name a single other Power 5 program that fired a head coach after a similar run, given no character issues, criminal behavior, or NCAA violations? I don’t know of any comparable examples.
We’re in about the top 25 in almost every metric in basketball OTHER than on the court results:
– Valuation…
– Coaching salary
– McDonalds AAs landed
– Recruiting aggregate rankings in general
– Attendance: Fowler’s smartest move was LTRs
– Facilities
– We also have Adidas funneling their big time AAU recruits in our direction…So, everything a coach needs to be successful is there and has been since the ESA opened.
Solid list here. My list would differ a bit. For example, I think valuation is likely already aggregating some of your other factors and I wouldn’t have that listed. My list would look more like this (no particular order and varying degrees of importance):
1. Salary/compensation for head coach
2. Salary/compensation for staff
3. Budget (e.g., for recruiting)
4. Facilities
5. Tradition/reputation
6. Quality of fan base
7. Conference strength/reputation
8. State of current roster and incoming recruits
9. Ability to recruit (accounts for local talent, AAU connections)
10. Expectations
11. Relationships/impression of key individuals (AD, chancellor, booster club leaders, etc.)
12. Any NCAA problems (recent past or looming)
13. Place to live/cost of livingIf anything, I think the State job looks even better with my list than rye’s list. Yet very few of these factors is any different today than when we went through the last two coaching searches, when we ended up with Lowe and Gott.
So why will this search be different? Because if we push Gott out now, we can get Archie, and he is the next elite level coach?
1. It doesn’t make sense to push Gott out now.
2. No one knows how good Archie will be.
3. No one knows if he would take our job over whatever other opportunities he would have if our job was open. I grant you, I think he would if it was open right now. Then again, I thought Shaka would take it, too.ear. A post player of this caliber is certainly a missing link with our program. Hope Gott can land him. Thanks for the update Red…any info on other schools in hot pursuit?
LOL… but so true…
– How much improvement will we see next year?
As of right now, I expect next year to be in line with Gott’s first four seasons, and possibly the best season yet since he arrived. That is assuming Cat leaves but everyone else returns. If so, Gott won’t be going anywhere.
If next season is another losing season like this one, he’ll either be gone or on a red hot seat (not sure if we can afford to buy him out next season…?). I just don’t see this happening unless we lose multiple players unexpectedly (whether to leaving the program or Henderson-like major injuries).
The problem with this theory is this recruiting class was supposed to be the one that sent us to the higher tier. Two top five players in NC, one of which is a State fan and they were a “package”. The rumors were abounding about others joining those two but alas it was not to be. And that is why I finally decided Gott is not going to win a title here. He had a hanging curve ball and could not hit it out of the park. He just does not seem interested or able to address his shortcomings.
Understand. But being as close as he seemingly was this year illustrates that there is still a chance he can break through into a higher tier of recruiting. I’m not saying I am sure he will do it, but I think it would be foolish for anyone to take the stance that it is impossible for him to do it.
IMO if we fire Gott, it is much more likely we end up with a Les/HWSNBN/Lowe caliber replacement than a guy who will be better than Gott. I like Archie, but there is absolutely no guarantee that he would be an upgrade over Gott.
The grass is often not greener, as we discovered after Les and after HWSNBN. (Though IMO it was still the right move to replace both of them.)
chop: I tend to agree with you about what makes a successful college coach. It is seemingly either:
– Great recruiter: Calipari / Sean Miller / Self mold
– System guy who develops players in their system and then retains them: Bennett / Wisconsin / Beiline / Syracuse / Roy (vomit) approach
– Motivator who can can get the most out of the cards they are dealt: K and Izzo get great cards, but their teams are typically mentally tougher than their opponents. Greg Marshall, Smart and Few are guys who do this with lesser talent.All coaches must do all three of these things, but it is rare that a coach is great at all of them… those are your HOF caliber coaches. Gott is a good recruiter and a good motivator. Not as good at fitting players to system and retaining them. But this mix has been good enough overall that he has the highest ceiling and highest floor of any coach we’ve had since V.
I would certainly rather have an elite coach of the caliber of many of the names listed here (Calipari, Sean Miller, Izzo, K, etc.). But I don’t see any reason to believe that we will get a coach of that caliber if we fire Gott. IMO the higher percentage play is to stick with Gott and hope he breaks through into a higher tier of recruiting and that lifts the program.
We entered the season with an 8 man rotation with 2 guards, 3 wings, and 3 bigs. We expected that we would have 3 strong offensive players — Cat, Abu, Henderson. Rowan was a freshman, and so a bit of a wild card. The others were for the most part expected to play specific roles.
Then we lost Henderson 7 minutes into the season. That took away 1 of the 2 guards and 1 of the 3 players expected to be strong offensively. Huge blow that is probably underrated in terms of its impact on our season.
Then Cat broke out even better than expected, which was great… but Abu didn’t really break out as expected… not so great. Leaving the team with one strong offensive player. As great as he was, there just wasn’t enough help on offense.
Yes, I know it is Gott’s fault he wasn’t better prepared. That isn’t the point. The point is, the team did its best given the roster they had to work with. IMO next season is set to be a strong rebound season, with 3 guards coming in and the wealth of experience gained by the Martins and Rowan, plus hopefully a healthier Freeman. I’m sure some people will respond to forecast transfers, but I will view the glass half full and not half empty until and unless there are negative developments.
Back to this season, the effort was consistently good, which made watching tolerable despite the poor record. And Cat was a joy to watch. For those of you who chose to stop watching, IMO you missed a lot.
WTNY!
As I posted earlier, the 2017 draft is expected to be quite a bit stronger than the 2016 draft. A couple of data points from nbadraft.net:
– They project 12 current college freshmen and 9 current college upperclassmen to go in the first round of the 2016 draft.
– They project 16 current high school seniors and 0 current college upperclassmen to go in the first round of the 2017 draft.Cat could easily lose draft position if he comes back for another year. I hope he comes back, but I don’t think he should.
Whatever team drafts him will be drafting him largely on potential, and he will add 10-15 pounds and improve his jump shot a lot faster in a professional setting than he will with another year in college.
Marcus Paige is a great example of the potential downside of returning for another year. Paige’s track record:
Freshman – Freshman All-American
Sophomore – 2nd team All-American, 1st team All ACC, ACC Most Improved Player
Junior – 2nd team All ACC
Senior – Preseason ACC POY, no actual honorsHe’ll likely need a passport to play professionally
Completely disagree. There are at least 91 PGs on NBA rosters this season, not including combo guards. There is no doubt in my mind Cat is one of the top 90 PGs right now for the NBA game.
Cat may not be looked at as a point guard, but as a 2
Seriously doubt that. He is listed at 6’2″, 185 lbs. The average NBA PG is 6’2″, 190+ lbs. The average NBA SG is 6’5″, 205+ lbs. Cat would be pretty seriously undersized for a NBA SG. And Cat doesn’t have a great vertical to help make up for his height.
In addition, while he has dramatically improved his jump shot over the past couple of years, his range is also probably subpar for a NBA SG.
PG all the way.
I think he comes back
It would be surprising. I suppose if the feedback he gets is that he would only be a second rounder, he might consider it. But (a) it is hard to improve significantly from year 3 to year 4 when already playing at 1st team All ACC level, and (b) next year’s draft is supposed to be considerably stronger than this year’s draft. So it seems unlikely Cat could improve his draft stock by coming back. Meanwhile, he would forego a year of earning for his family.
I would love to see him come back, since he is a great player and a pleasure to watch. But it would also potentially create some playing time issues. It would really take away from Henderson’s minutes, which would be really unfortunate for him after what he has been through; it would also reduce minutes for Dorn, DSJ, Mav, and the twins. Dorn, Henderson, and DSJ aren’t going anywhere, but could it create risk of another transfer (e.g., Mav?).
No VA – I don’t think you make a change this year. But like I said, I expect us to go to the tourney, probably seeded somewhere between a 7-11 seed.
We could have great talent and depth. Unfortunately, if history is any indicator, we won’t use that talent to get after it on defense or throw a ton of different player combinations at our opposition.But make no mistake, the team will be capable of having a great year in conference and making a deep run in the tournament. If it does neither of those things or if defections reduce our talent level to where the bubble represents another great coaching effort, then well…
I dont see where people are getting this. We are a 5 win team and we are losing the best player from it. Keeping the same players essentially, adding nobody in the frontcourt that is already pretty bad and only adding an injured 5 star pg, which is notoriously the hardest position to learn. Yeah I know we get Dorn and hopefully Henderson back but call me skeptical in their ability to contribute to make next years team a lock to make the tourney.
You say you don’t see where it is coming from, then you provide the answer. Adding Smith, Dorn, and Henderson and losing only Cat would provide a nice rotation:
PG – Smith, Dorn
SG – Henderson, Dorn
SF – Cody, Caleb, Rowan
PF – Abu, Freeman, Cody
C – Anya, FreemanWe go from 1 guard to 3 guards in the rotation, giving us 3 guards, 3 wings, and 3 bigs. We have 6 upperclassmen and just 1 freshman in a rotation of 9 players. And that rotation does not account for Kirk, in the event that he improves enough to see the floor.
Yes, someone unexpected (i.e., someone besides Cat) could leave, but it is also true that there could be late addition(s) to the roster, either via additional recruit(s) or senior/juco transfer(s).
The above is a likely scenario, and it’s a good one. Barring injuries like Henderson’s this year, that roster should be a lock for a NCAA tournament bid, and shouldn’t be on the bubble getting there.
He’s not going anywhere but we see his ceiling and we see his floor. Slightly higher ceiling than HWSNBN and lower floor.
Lower floor? In Herb’s 5th season, State was 13-16 and 5-12 in the ACC.
2 Martins starting. No Rowan
The announcer said just before the tip that Rowan wasn’t out there because he hasn’t been practicing due to a potential stress fracture in his foot. That’s the first I’ve heard of it. Is this a thing?
IMO Cat will be a first round pick, and he should and will go pro. I expect his profile will rise in the pre-draft workouts to lock him into the first.
As for height, the average pre-draft height for PGs in 2015 was 6’2.1”. Cat is listed at 6’2″. Height is a non-issue. However, I agree that he is underweight. I assume once in the NBA on their nutrition, diet, and weight training programs, he will bulk up at least a bit. I don’t think any of this will be viewed as an issue serious enough to hurt his draft stock.
I just wonder who the other mystery ma(e)n we are losing will be?
I hope it’s no one and you cry yourself to sleep at night.
History says there will be at least one. We can speculate. Too many 3’s next year. Mav or the Martins leaving? Anya just totally quitting the game would be something I can see. His heart is clearly not in it.
Please take your constant negativity to another thread. This is a thread about Cat, not early departures.
Yes, and from what I get…the revised NOA will contain a bit more than what UNx expected.
The NCAA is going to punch them square in the mouth, but what was expected for Spring, will most likely come heading into the Fall semester.
:popcorn:
I miss Tyler Lewis. He could distribute to the big guys.
LMFAO
This
No, Rivers isn’t a jerk on Brady’s level. But he talks trash. HEAVILY. Always has.
He talks a lot. He doesn’t talk trash. There is a difference. He doesn’t insult other players, and he doesn’t curse. He chatters, which is unusual, but he doesn’t do it like other players.
Same with Rivers.
You had a decent post going until this. I could not disagree more with this quote. Terrell Owens is a good example of an egotistical jerk in the NFL. Rivers is nothing like that, and Brady isn’t either. There is a difference between being an intense competitor and being an egotistical jerk. Maybe you just picked a bad phrase here to get your point across.
Manning retires and Rivers to Denver.
See my first post above. Rivers is going nowhere.
The Rivers-Brees and Rodgers-Favre situations were exceptions that are very unlikely to be repeated. Also note that Rivers was drafted because Brees had played badly up to that point, and the team expected Rivers to start over Brees.
It may make sense to draft the next Chargers QB in another two years, but not now. Right now, the Chargers plan to have Rivers starting for the next four seasons. Drafting a rookie QB this year means his rookie contract would be played out before he would expect to start.
Furthermore, the team is riddled with needs. They need their second and third round picks this year to be starters.
Again, the GM and coaching staff have to win games now or they stand to be fired. They are not and should not be focused on preparing the team for 4+ years from now.
