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VaWolf: I always enjoy your posts! Keep them up as the blog needs them.
We could dance but we’re really weighed down by that non-conference schedule. That has to improve next year. For this year we can’t have any bad losses (i.e. Pitt) and need to get some conference road wins. Do those two things, get to 9-9 in league play and win at least one in the NCAA, the. We’re on the bubble with a chance for it to go our way. In year one of Keatts, particularly given all the roster flux, that would be fantastic.
It is popular for the fans to pile on Freeman. I think they miss that he routinely gets the toughest defensive draw. He just needs to focus on driving more and not shooting threes. In the big wins we’ve had this year, he drove to the rim to score or pass. We need more of that as opposed to the “bad Al” who forces the action and shoots a lot of tough, contested shots.
I figured he would transfer if Finley returns. You can’t blame him for wanting to play. When he came in he looked like the type of WB that DD wanted (Lynch style), but the offense with Drink is just different (pass first schematically and definitely that from the QB). I wish him nothing but the best.
I figured before the season even started that this one would be ugly. To beat UVA a team needs to be a cohesive unit playing team ball, really pressure them out of their game, make a lot of threes and value the ball. Given where we are as a team, it was a tall order on the road.
Well, on top of that, the bad Wolfpack showed up today. We played outside in despite making nothing, didn’t value the basketball and didn’t play great team defense. Oh well. On to the next one.
Time for the team to refocus against Wake. This is a very winnable game and would leave us at 3-3. I would have taken that in a second after watching Clemson in the non-conference.
The OCC schedule was so soft that we really cannot have enough conference wins (meaning instead of targeting a number, go win them all). In reality the number we need to win really depends on who we beat and who we lose to. Because of the non-conference and the 3 losses, we would seemingly need to make 9-9 to pass the “eye test” but I think if we can get a few more good wins (tomorrow would be absolutely huge) while not having any bad losses (GT, Pitt or WF), we might make it in depending on how the ACC tournament goes.
That’s a lot of “ifs.” We should take one game at a time, strive to be better game to game and throughout the game. Next year we should improve the nonconference slate.
Keith was the voice of the Pac10. While out west I used to watch the Pac10 games just to hear him announce them. I’ve never said that about anyone else in any sport. RIP.
Saw the first half but not the second due to work. I could tell it was going down to the wire. We are good enough to build a working lead on a good team (and this Clemson team is as good of one as they’ve had since Barnes), but not quite good enough to go on cruise control once getting that working lead. Every game is an adventure. Yurt was obviously huge, but one could see that break out game coming for several weeks now.
On comments about the hire and the program, it has been many years since we’ve beaten two ranked teams back to back. If we could somehow beat UVA, it would probably be the first time since V. I don’t think we’ll win that game, but it would certainly e nice given how particularly awful UVA’s style of play is.
I think there are going to be bumps and we’ve had some this year (bad losses to N. Iowa, UNCG, etc.), but I think in the end NC State fans are going to be very happy with this hire. I said when we made the hire that it was the best one we’d made since V. I still believe that.
I would agree that given the style of play, we are going to be an incredibly difficult out st home, and that will go a long way towards building the springboard to really get us where we want. Even some of the elite programs are barely .500 on the road, but are lock down at home and tough on a neutral court.
Kenpom’s predictive is behind the pay wall. I believe Packi has access.
He has a factor called “luck” in his metrics. I believe they go into the predictive stats.
Yawn, Alabama wins again. Great ref assisted comeback or complete choke job depending on how one looks at it. The QB sub by Saban show why he is the best in the business, and Georgia showed that the SEC had two teams better than anyone else in the land. The gap continues.
The ACC returned to old form in our bowls……
Bill: If you want predictive, go to kenpom.com. He plots out the projected records based on where every team is at the moment. Obviously every game changes the future prediction. Let’s say we beat Clemson Thursday. We would look “stronger” in his eyes and this more apt to win more future games, so our future prediction might increase. Go in and get hammered at home, and it might drop.
It isn’t the easiest thing to really do. Before the Duke win, kenpom had us at 6 predictive wins in conference. That was where my eyes had us as well. I’m not sure where he has us as of right now, but would suspect we are up to 8.
The reality for a bubble team in a power conference is that their fate is often decided before they ever play a conference game. They won’t have enough RPI building wins either at the top line or they won’t have played enough good teams. Sadly, we scheduled ourselves off the bubble. We are fine at the “top line” with the Zona win and going 2-2 agains teams with a pulse. Had we played just a solid set of other opponents, we actually could be right in the hunt for the bubble.
Alas we didn’t. Our only path is .500 or better in the ACC, AND we need wins against the top line opponents. Given our non-conference schedule, it won’t be good enough just getting to .500 if those wins are against Pitt, Wake, GT. We got a good win against Duke. Clemson is critically important. My eyes say they’re a good team, their record says they’re a good team, and the computers think they’re a good team. We really need this one.
There are two take aways. First the schedule has to improve going forward. I suspect it will and this team’s non-conference schedule was just to give us a lot of working room to implement the system with a higher margin of error.
The second is the amazing fact that we could actually even talk about the bubble. We’re nowhere near it, but it shows a fan’s optimism about the state of the program, and that we have a couple of good wins such that the fans are waking up to possibly take interest. I have always thought that the bubble was the absolute best possible outcome for this team, and it would be nice to see us reach our “potential.”
Smart move by Finley and very good news for NC State. We’re riding a lot of offseason momentum. Hopefully we can redshirt the freshman and turn over the reigns to a four year starter.
Finley is sneaking his way up the NC State record books. I would not be surprised if he did not graduate next year as one of our top 5 all time QBs.
Great team win tonight. Every player who played contributed tonight, and in a significant way. Tip of the cap to the coaching staff to go from what happened the other night against ND to this. That was quite a gut check and turn around.
I’ve said it all year — Yurt and Nard are playing at a high level. They got to show it tonight against the best interior player I’ve seen in college basketball in some time. Ballet still played a heck of a game but our three big players pretty much played Duke’s two evenly. Once that happened then the game went to the perimeter and Beverly, Batts and Freeman played within themselves. Dorn was better than Allen, which was nice to see.
This is two big wins in year one of KK. There were themes in both of them:
– Other team not being good defensively
– Al Freeman driving to the hole
– Playing inside out
– Making free throws
– Hitting the glass hard
– An opponent that wanted to get out and run
Play like this and we CAN clearly punch above our weight.The team can’t rest on this one. They really need a win against Clemson at home. Clemson is currently on top of the ACC standings. We need to win this one because we are going to struggle against UVA.
Great game! Go Pack! Good news for football as well, and always nice to see the Evil Empire lose.
The incident happened October 8th.
Thanks for the correction on the date. I haven’t heard when and if NC State knew, or whether they found out over Christmas. I found it odd that Markell was playing, then he was suspended and with the team, and now he seemingly is not. That suggests we might not have known, but that is pure speculation.
Regardless, I look at that situation and think Markell may not be back this season, particularly since they continued the court date. Others close to the program have hinted otherwise, so I hope I am wrong.
Keatts doesn’t have the roster to play the game he wants to play. That’s obviously not on him. Give the guy some time.
wulfpack: I think you nailed it with this quote. Without running any individual players down, the roster does not match the system. We’re showing the system first. Hopefully we recruit the players to match. In the interim, this appears to be a long season from a record perspective.
Then boom…
Darius Hicks goes down for the season…
This might seem small since he’s a freshman… but the difference in having 4 good BIGS and 3 good BIGS is 100%… not only minutes spread out in games, but in practice where’s there’s always competition…Then BOOM KA BOOM …
Markel goes home for Christmas, checks in with his homeys, get’s in the wrong place at the wrong time, get’s stupid, get’s busted…That never would have happened in Raleigh with his team mates… only flying solo in wonderful Cleveland Ohio…
Bill: I agree with much of what you posted, but would make some slight edits to this. Hicks is a sophomore. Markell’s issue seemingly happened when he went home over the summer.
But what I am seeing is Abu and Y7 regressing, a bigger, stronger Lennard getting fewer rebounds instead of more, and I am seeing no improvement on defense from the past.
Maybe we’re watching different games (and I’ve seen every one of them), but I don’t think I see that. Yurtseven is clearly better than he was last year. He’s more confident, looking to score and racking up blocks on defense. Maybe your comment is that he hasn’t looked as good against the ACC foes as the cupcakes, and I would agree with that. Our non-conference schedule did us no favors (and that is something I hope we see clear improvement on next year). We got into some bad habits that were clearly evident against Clemson, and we’re going to have to adjust.
With respect to Abu, I think our fans get too caught up in his “measurables” and what seems to be a great kid off the court, and haven’t really paid too much attention to his actual basketball game. The best basketball he played at NC State was a stretch on the back half of the ACC season two years ago when he decided to bang inside. It seemed to click then, and his numbers shot up (averaged a double/double). Last year he clearly regressed. Somewhere along the way, NBA scouts or somebody else told him he needed to show he could consistently hit the 15-18 footer and he has fallen in love with that shot. When we were playing the UCLA offense, he was sitting up at the high post and Yurt on the block, when they should have been switched. I don’t for a second believe that wasn’t part of the deal to get Abu to come back after he almost bolted. This year he was injured, so it’s kind of hard to tell how he’ll end up, but NC State needs Abu to get back to banging on the block.
Nard is having a career year. He’s put in a ton of work rehabbing and practicing, and I’m very happy for him in that he’s seeing the results. The numbers he’s on pace to put up this year are obviously better than any he put up at NC State, but what may surprise people is that they’re better than he put up in high school. His rebounding numbers at NC State were 5.6 per game as a freshman, 5.7 per game as a sophomore, 4.7 per game as a junior and he’s at 5.3 rebounds per game this year. Looks about the same to me. His shooting from the field and the line are up 20%+ and he’s on pace to triple his career scoring average despite no increase in minutes.
Now on the defense, I have to admit I’m scratching my head. It looked better early, and looks better against over matched opponents. When Markell went out, we lost the on the ball pressure that seemingly is required for what we are trying to do. I like BB, and he’s doing a GREAT job for a freshman, but a lock down, on the ball defender he is not. Batts looks good to me on the ball, but gets lost off the ball. As a team we don’t have great foot speed, and aren’t switching well. The press looks much better when played with only 1 big man, but our wings just aren’t good enough offensively to play that style. Long story short, the defense looks to me like a system that doesn’t match the players we currently have on the court.
The defense does look better to me than any of our defenses under Gott because at least we’re actually trying to play it. If one says we’re regressing, I invite you to look at some of the footage from the last couple of years and see just how bad it was. We were absolutely awful and ranked 229th in the nation last year in tempo adjusted defense, and 152nd the year prior. This year we’re currently sitting at 137th, which isn’t where it needs to be, and will likely go up due to the roster and better opposition, but is still a clear improvement over last year.
Keep in mind that we have also recruited kids who weren’t all that interested or schooled in playing defense. We had a couple of exceptions who took matters into their hands and made things happen (Cat and Warren with steals, Anya from time to time with blocks, Markell being the only one who tried to play defense last year), but for the most part defense was just what filled the 20 or so seconds until we got back to playing offense. This is a cultural shock and a huge style of play change for any returning player, which is likely why Mav headed off to play over seas.
The only answer to the question is to do a better job of pounding the ball in to Yurt, Lennard, and Abu, and let them attack the rim or pass it back out to the open man.
I agree with this. The ball has to go inside and threes have to go inside out. It’s the only chance we have.
Freeman is an easy target, and the issues there are well discussed, but we have other issues on the perimeter. Fan favorite Beverly is putting up good and efficient numbers that are impressive for a freshman, but I don’t think we’re going to win a ton of games this season with him as a starting PG. He’s a good combo who can swing over to PG to spell the starter. By the time he’s a senior, more experienced and stronger, he’s going to be a poor man’s Corch.
Dorn’s a better PF than a SF. Unfortunately he’s outmatched physically at PF in the ACC. Last year he clearly got hurt, but this year I think his production will drop due to match ups.
I like Batts’ game. It reminds me a lot of Cat’s as a freshman. Whether Batts follows that same arc remains to be seen. I think Cat put a lot of work into his game that our fans didn’t always recognize.
I like Hunt. He is a good shooter. He seems like a high volume player off a bad smaller team.
Unfortunately when you put it together and we just have very little in the 1-3 slots. KK seemingly wants to play 4 around 1, yet we’re playing two post players most of the time. It’s a mess.
Anyone amped up or hanging by a string for wolfpack basketball this season needs to just find something else to do for a couple/three months. Save your energy hating or worrying about Keats, worrying about beating this team or that team and just check the score the morning after and say a silent prayer our kids don’t get embarrassed every game. Let’s be serious for a second…
Abu: Athlete and that is all, no range, no shot, no hands, no basketball after this year
Freeman: Solid but not gonna give us 20 points a game
Dorn: Transfer from UNCC…again, TRANSFER FROM UNCC
Batts: uh…
Beverly: solid, will be, is a great addition
Johnson: GONE
A. Freeman: possibilities, that’s about is
Omer: No
Sam Hunt: transfer from NCA&T, a team that won THREE games all year!!!!There aren’t three guys that should legitimately start on an ACC roster much less be successful in the ACC on that list.
While I’m not as down on the individual players as you, this is generally how I see it as well. I had hope for maybe something better due to style of play, but we just cannot shot. If we can’t score, we can’t press and we have to have the easy baskets.
I know Beverly is a fan favorite and a nice combo guard but he cannot really break down a defense penetrating and is getting exploited defensively (sort of like a better version of WBS). We were down on talent relative to ACC teams, but Markell being out puts us in an even bigger hole.
I think people need to realize the state of the roster. The last two Gott teams had terrible records, and had massive defections. This was a 5 win ACC team last year with a NBA lottery pick playing the most important position. I had a fan’s hope early, but the harsh reality is that we lost our top 3 scorers off of last year’s bad team. At Nevada’s version of the Wolfpack, two players that should be getting big minutes this year for NC State are putting up some pretty nice numbers on a fringe top 25 team. We said that Gott wasn’t building a program, and that the defections would kill us and that’s where we are.
I hate to say it, but we’re two years away from an uptick. Next year we’re going to be painfully young. We’ll need another strong recruiting class next year to pair with them. In year 3 of KK, that’s likely when we’ll see it. Some said it, and I think they were right.
Grin and bear it time………
I have said since early that we were going to struggle against grind it out teams like Clemson (and specifically mentioned Clemson). UVA, Syracuse, Louisville and FSU likely will all be ugly because this team can’t shoot. If we can’t shoot, we can’t press, and we need the press to generate easy looks and force tempo.
We’ll do better against teams that are willing to go up and down more, even if they are considerably more talented (see Arizona). That’s not saying we’ll win these games, but just that the style of play matches up better.
Good game by Beverly and solid game by Yurt. Dorn got some rebounds, but didn’t make anything. My fear is that this will be common against taller teams if he’s playing the four.
I would agree that this team misses Markell. He’s not the reason we lost, but our margin of error without him is just razor thin. If he’s not back, then I don’t see more than 6 ACC wins this year.
I forgot to mention culture. I agree with you that culture is critically important and probably the biggest job of the person in charge. What I would say is that I have been in a number of cultures. Give me the one where the leader takes personal responsibility when the road gets bumpy, and not blames subordinates and external factors.
A great example of this is Keatts after the UNCG loss. That was a real stinker. He said that he wasn’t going to make excuses about not having a player. He’a continually said he’s pleased with the effort of the kids. He’a not said the obvious (we need better players), blames youth, whined about the hand he was dealt, called out the 1/2 empty PNC, etc.. he’s just rolled up his sleeves and worked. Keatts may or may not win big here, but his is the culture that I like (at least from what a casual fan can see).
Grey: I honestly find your defense of DD as or more tiring than you find my posts. Yow delivered you a Christmas gift of 3+ more years of DD. I don’t really care one way or another because the inputs of our football program add up to about 7-5 to 9-3, and that’s what we’re getting. I care much more about men’s basketball where we do have the inputs to do something far more than we have over the past 20 years.
I am willing to admit that some things are good and some things are bad. In the spirit of continuous improvement, given we’ve got more time I would hope we seek to get better. To hear you talk, we didn’t even need to hire that 10th coach. DD has it all covered. We just need some better players. Shrugs.
I like the Roof hire. I’m in a minority that I have no real issue with Hux. I don’t love our version of 4-2-5, but hopefully Roof can shore the passing defense up like he did at GT this year. I do wonder if this signals something about Hux and I’m not the only person asking that.
As for Special teams, there have been interactions on another site with a former kicker of ours. He has outlined many issues with coaching relative to how the place kicking is being instructed (multiple kickers doing the same incorrect things, holders, etc.). Maybe a better place kicker solves it because maybe he just ignores what is coached, so maybe Jimmy does fix it. My gut says when multiple players make the same mistakes, you may want to look at who is telling them to do that. For a team that isn’t going to “out talent” the opposition, Special teams is a way to make a difference. It looks to me like we under invest there.
And yes, for some of us who thought that if DD were relieved of his duties (and I fully believe the last two years came down to week 12), we felt that Kitchings would be a good hire. We’ve heard from a lot of places that Kitchings is a great recruiter and really connects with people. That line of thinking is an acknowledgment that many things are going well, but if a change had to be made not to throw the good out with the bad. As you say none of us really know the exact decisions made by which coach, but we do know that DD is responsible for the sum of them, and is the one who tells the refs what time outs to call, whether to challenge, etc.. So I cannot tell you if Des or Drink or the phantom sports analytics person is the source, but I can tell you that DD is the responsible party, and then is the one that often blames the players, refs, laptops, etc. when they don’t work out.
Grey: DD still has mind boggling in game decisions, and many of the things you mention. With an op Ion to pick up an extra coach, I would have thought we’d have focused on the most obvious weakness, but maybe we did. The off-season is not over yet, so more moves may still be made.
What I would say on Beamer is that it absolutely was a pipe dream. I do find it ironic that some dreamers on this site would in turn scoff at an admitted one. What I would say though is that many times when people feel like they left a little too early, they come back for another run, at a lesser position and doing what they liked (and less of what a hey didn’t). I’m not sure if many are aware of this, but Beamer was dealing with cancer his last years at VT, but that has seemingly since cleared. Cancer can change one’s time table on certain decisions. I’ve seen it numerous times. It’s clear it isn’t happening and never was, but that doesn’t make it a bad idea and one worth inquiring about.
Roof coaching LB and co-DC is the combo that suggests to me that Hux may be retiring. When you have two people in charge of the same thing, you really have no one in charge. I just don’t buy it. Makes more sense that we’d get Roof on now (since he was clearly done at GT), Hux coaches the bowl, retires and then we hire someone to focus on special teams.
Grey: The Special teams issues are much bigger than four guys being out. If they had just happened this year I might be willing to go along with that, but they’re every season under DD. They’re bad and going to continue to cost us games. I was hoping we’d make a hard run at Beamer as a #2/Special teams coach. I thought after sitting out a couple of seasons, Beamer might be missing coaching and might like to get back in at a reduced role focusing on what he loved.
We need help on D and dDD would be well served to have a solid assistant at #2 who has been a head man but is not out shopping to be one again. It is a good fit.
What I do not see is how this helps us in Special teams. That area has to improve, and it is not just place kicking. This is the worst (and for the longest) that I ever remember in my lifetime at NC State.
Yogi: it is my opinion that most of the food in Charleston puts its equivalent in Raleigh to shame. Charleston is one of the top 3 food cities in America on any list. You won’t find Raleigh on any of those lists, and if we’re honest we know why. Are there good places? Sure, but not like we see in Charleston, New York, San Francisco, Boston, Chicago, Austin, etc..
Fanatic: I’m honestly curious. Which eligible player did not play in this game? I think I read that Newman had been hurt. I think he is our only walk on because the former UNCA player left the team a month or so back. Hicks is out for the year. Bryce and Daniels have to sit due to transfer. Kirk got nearly 20 minutes of play. I think we played everyone.
I believe we have fewer walk ones than during the Gott era because we are actually trying to carry a full allotment of scholarship players. One of the most maddening things about Gott is his refusal to use all 13 scholarship players and instead used about 10. Syracuse went on probation and was docked 3 kids a year. It was like Gott voluntarily was on probation. We had zero margin of error for injuries and couldn’t have had as effective of practices. I’m so glad that Gott is gone. I just wish we’d have never re-upped him.
