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When ya got no zone…you spaced out.
I was commenting to Packi that it’d have been nice to go into a zone in the second half when Maye was lighting us up. Clog up the paint and make them shoot from the perimeter. I’m not sure they could have beaten us because I don’t think they shoot very well. UVA and VT both packed it in on defense and beat them.
While I didn’t think my hate for UNC could get much higher, they somehow found a way to do so. If you haven’t, then check out the post game comments by their “senior leader.” I think they doth protest too much, but it would have been so sweet to have swept them.
I waited to post so it wouldn’t be emotional. Upon reflection, it took a career game by UNC’s best player for them to beat us, and a career game by Freeman for us to beat them. We look fairly similar otherwise to me, and I will take it in year one.
There were some comments on whether the current coach is a savior or a charlatan. I think that the early returns have been positive but that we’ll know more in the next couple of years. If Keatts is what we want/hope for, then we’re well positioned as the league transitions. I think most of the posters have been reasonable and have been taking that type of position. I will say I actually have hope, which I’ve not really had since HWSNBN’s early years. That’s nice to have.
Bill: You’ve made some very good points in this thread. Ones I tend to agree with are:
– The general decline in team play and fundamentals over the past 30 years in college basketball. They got lost in the push/shove/AAU era of the late 1990s, seemingly never to return.
– This isn’t a good UNC team by UNC’s standards.
– ORW doesn’t have good in game situational awareness. Why he sat on that time out was baffling because he was going to lose it at the half. Don’t use that 4th time out in the first half, and it goes away. He’s just stubborn.
– Our rebounding and defense are inconsistent. When we do both, we go on spurts that can run teams out of the gym.
– We were 1-2 more buckets away from a knock out punch in the first half.
– The Catch-22 of the top line talent severely lacking fundamentals and a desire to grind and the need to get kids to stick around 3-4 years. I think that our recruiting strategy is to find the 4 star kids who look like 3-4 year players, get them lots of playing time and hope they stick. It will be interesting to see what happens this offseason with our player retention.
– That you see the game much differently (and arguably better) from the cheap seats in the ESA than you do on television. I’d rather be “up high” for basketball or hockey games for the exact reasons you mention.
– That the game plan was to get back on defense as opposed to crashing the boards. In other games we’ve hit the offensive glass much harder.Ones I’m not sure I agree quite as much with:
– UVA and Wisconsin are the only teams playing fundamental ball. Those teams play ugly basketball and the last time I checked Wisconsin post Bo has been on a really rough ride. Those teams play 1990s, Big East/Big Ten thug ball.
– Dean’s legacy. Dean squandered more talent than any coach I have ever seen, and he did it in an era where the players were pretty much locked in for 3 years. Dean was a heck of a recruiter and dirty as it comes, but he looked eerily similar to Roy’s time at Kansas, or Montgomery’s time at Stanford. Sure I would take it for NC State, but I don’t view Dean as a great in game coach. Nine times out of ten he had the other team beat before they stepped on the court due to talent.
– This game was representative of our season. We regressed a bit this past week. I’m not sure why, but Yurt had his worst week this season. He’s our best player, and we’re not winning without him playing well.
– Luke Maye had a career game. I don’t think there was some masterful motivation by Roy. He got clicking, got hot and then couldn’t miss (couple of those 3s were daggers). I look at it like it took a career game from UNC’s best player to beat us. In the same way, it took a career game out of Freeman for us to beat them at UNC (our fans kind of want to forget that).In the end, we split the regular season with UNC. I badly wanted the sweep, and was annoyed by the post game gloating from UNC’s players, but I will take it in year one.
This one is circled for both teams. I’m not loving that UNC is coming off of a momentum building win and we just got punched in the chin. That is about the worst way to come into this, though maybe UNC has a letdown after their big win.
I’m with the camp that this is the most important regular season game left. Year, they’re all critical for bigger goals that may still be there, but I just cannot stand UNC. This would be our chance at our first season sweep of them in a long, long time. The ESS needs to be rocking tomorrow, and not with baby blue.
13OT: while I don’t agree with the seemingly never statement, I would agree with the sentiment about the VT game and in some of our other stinkers — N. Iowa, UNCG, first ND game and VT. There are some games where we move the ball very well and share it. We get good shots and normally win. In our losses though, we have settled for the quick/easy shot and haven’t shared it well. It is easy as fans to focus on the negative, but it is clearly not every game.
As Packi pointed out to me a couple of weeks ago, KK will have improved our offense even more than our defense in year one……
Bummer that we laid an egg because a road win would have helped our RPI and tournament bid chances. I knew VT would be tough as they would be very hungry and were well coached. Tip of the cap to them because they knew how to play us — sag off the shooters, drive on anyone who Beverley is guarding. Toss in some cold shooting and some quick whistles on Yurt and that game was over pretty quickly.
People mention Al Freeman’s stat line, but we have gone as he has gone all year. He had career games against Arizona and UNC and we won. Any game against even a semi-decent opponent where he has a stat line like last night and we lose. I think bringing him in off the bench has helped ease him into the game and let him get into the flow better. The book on him has to be to just stay in front of him and eventually he will start jacking up shots.
I did not see it in my brief pass through the posts, but Dorn didn’t have the impact that he normally does. In our recent streak he has been good for a quiet 16-20 points and 8-10 boards. Last night he was just quiet.
On to the next one. Something was out of sorts last night and it was obvious fairly early. Hopefully whatever it is we have recovered by Saturday. The only saving grace is that UNC will be coming off an emotionally draining game against Duke. Hopefully they don’t have a momentum builder.
A double bye and a tournament bid would be beyond my wildest dreams for this season. I like that we can at least dare to dream about both of these things. The reality is that we need to keep winning to get to both, and there are a lot of games ahead of us.
Great analysis as always. Beating ND didn’t “help” us because playing them probably hurt us. At the same time, losing to them, given their current tailspin and where they will likely end up, would have hurt us. It was a must win game, even if it wasn’t a resume builder.
What I look for at this time of the year is who left is still hungry. I think that hunger factor has dropped a bit given we no longer have double round robin. It’s more about what teams have a chance. We will face hungry teams in VT, UNC, Louisville, FSU and Syracuse. There are a lot of tough games left for us from teams who clearly will be giving us their best shot.
Yogi: I think you and I are on the same page here. Keatts is the best hire we have made since V was pushed out. I will kind of give Les a pass, and I could sort of see some thinking HWSNBN was an up and comer (we clearly picked the wrong Pitino assistant on that one).
Sid clearly was a bad hire. That was Fowler trying to buy some time before being run out of town on a rail. That was obvious at the time of the hire, and many of us on here were vocal about it. We had some good candidates in Marshall and Miller and then went with a “name.” I remember my conversation with Packi the day that hire was made and the best we could say was “at least Fowler won’t hire the next coach.”
With Gott it was clearly as bad as Sid. I knew when I found “the email” in my inbox that we were in dire straights. Then when we hired Gott with a Yow presser of “trust me and Gary got his revenge” all I could do was shake my head. I had followed Gott’s career at Alabama. It wasn’t just the antics off the court that got him fired mid-season. It was the incredibly inconsistent results within seasons, failure to seize the moment, lack of defense and overall .500 record in the SEC. A tiger doesn’t change its stripes, but I guess Yow really wanted to believe he had. I guess it looked like he may have for a season, but year two was a complete train wreck and he completely shut it down once we took him off that incentives based contract.
I bring all this up for a couple of reasons. It feels a little different this time. I actually have hope as opposed to just waiting to see how long it will take before it blows up. There’s also the cautionary piece which was the intent of the original post. Let’s be suppprtive but not get ahead of ourselves.
Some really, really great posts in this thread. I will quote a few excerpts that I tend to agree with:
I have another way to look at GOTT vs Keatts. Resume….Gott resigned from Alabama mid season ,was out of coaching for at least two years and got the State job thru his personal relationship with Yow.
I thought Gott was an awful hire for the reasons highlighted here. I was not happy with that hire. Gott exceeded expectations in year one due to the fact that Sid was such a bad program manager (note, that is different from an in game coach) that there was really nowhere to go but up.
Regardless, we have some talent this year but not Brown,Howell Leslie Wood talent or anywhere close.
Sid left Gott a complete roster. Every year away from Sid’s players, the HMS Gott took on more water. We have a handful of nice pieces but they certainly didn’t look like a roster that meshed early in the year. They’re playing their way into a formidable opponent. Go up and down that starting five though, and outside of Yurt, there’s not a player on this roster better than the one on Gott’s first team.
When a bad team loses its top three scorers, expecting that team to improve to the middle of the ACC seems silly to me. Maybe it’s just a minor nitpick, but KK built this team with very little to start with.
Here’s the first of two great points by VA. I think it very accurately portrayed expectations coming into the year, and by comparison where we are now. There’s admittedly plently of work left to be done.
While I’m certainly happy with exceeding expectations, don’t forget that UVA over-corrected with Pete Gillen. He exceeded expectations when they were low enough, but could never really move into the top-half of the conference. This year is great, but the expectation for the next five years should be for State to permanently move into the top half of the conference, with occasional forays into the two-round bye territory. When that’s accomplished, then we’ll know that we’ve got the right coach.
And therein lies what I think is the real point of the original poster. It is easy to get blinded by early returns. We shouldn’t back up the Brinks truck just yet. Year one (so far) is going pretty well, but it is not yet done. We have a lot more games (hopefully) left to be played. Let’s see how we finish, and what momentum we carry with us into the offseason.
Finally… this season is no fluke… and RT those W&Ls are both descriptive and predictive numbers and when we look at the bench and see Keatts and three classes of ‘his kids’…
I tend to agree with this. I thought Gott was a horrible hire. I thought Keatts was a very good one. Maybe I’m just seeing what I want to believe, and thus have confirmation bias. I think Gott inherited a pretty complete TEAM that just needed a new culture and ANY sort of structure between games. Gott left a complete mash up of “stuff” and was coming off two pretty awful years (losing record with a lottery pick at PG is a special kind of awful). We’re seeing them come together to be the best “team” NC State has seen at this point in the regular season in quite some time.
Uncle Roy and Coach Rat will retire
I’m not sure that I agree with the “why” that followed this statement, but I do agree with the statement. Not only will Roy and K be gone, but there will be a changing of the guard in the ACC over the next ~ 5 years. We’ve seen Pitino be pushed out. Jim B. is hanging on as long as he can, but he’s got to be on borrowed time. Larranaga may be brought down by the FBI, and if he sees that coming will likely “retire.” There’s no way that Syracuse and Miami replace HoF coaches with the same caliber. K and Roy are probably about to call it quits, and I don’t think their succession plan is that clear. The door is wide open for NC State to walk through.
When we were treading water with Gott, it was pretty infuriating because it looked like we might blow this opportunity. I couldn’t help but think back to when we were messing around with HWSNBN while UNC had Doherty. They got Roy and it was painfully obvious for any of the believers that the Desert Wanderer was never going to get it done. It should have been obvious much earlier. I was afraid we were making the same mistake this time.
When we pulled the trigger on the early firing, I was thankful. All I wanted was for us to have a chance to seize the moment when the changing of the guard happens. Keatts may or may not break through (which I think is the point of the original post), but there is actually a chance. That’s all a NC State fan could really ask for. For the first time since V, there is real hope for restoring our program. The next 3 years will tell us whether that will actually happen.
As a NC state fan, that was a great game to watch. We came out strong, dictated pace and never once trailed, getting up by 30 with 8 minutes left before calling off the dogs. What a reversal from South Bend.
As for the bigger picture, I could believe a run. I also looked at the schedule and saw some really tough games left. The teams needs to take one game at a time and focus on the task st hand. VT is going to be tough at home.
Go Pack!
UNC is going to get a pass due to injuries, particularly if/when those players come back. Personally, I hope they don’t before we get our next crack at them.
I would say that this is a huge win for them with Grantham out. Some on the boards effectively declared them dead, but they just defended their home court for the first time in a long time against the cheaters.
I tend to think that ND is the team that likely won’t/can’t recover and may not make the tournament barring some miracle run in the ACC Tournament. We really need to take care of business on Saturday.
Chop: I tend to agree. Just keep winning and it will all take care of itself.
I think it is a bit too early to say how many wins that NC State needs to get in. The value of each win changes each week based on what our opponents do, so I think those trying to say an absolute number of wins will get us in may be sorely disappointed. It’s a point in time view and it will be until Selection Sunday, much as VaWolf sets it out.
Circle the Syracuse game. Our zone offense has been ugly, and they’re typically quite tough at home. FSU could be very tough as well given their size. UNC will be out for revenge. Long story short, there is a lot of work left to be done.
UNCG, while a game we should not have lost, is not a resume killer. I specifically didn’t mention them earlier (maybe in another thread) because I think they’ll end up in the NCAA tournament. The N. Iowa one stings though, not so much due to the RPI hit from them, but because they don’t pass the eye test, and it robbed us a chance to play Villanova (which would have helped our SOS even in a loss).
What is hurting us though as we all know is the OOC schedule. We have the top line wins, but didn’t have the base. I am sure if I were Keatts and looking at the Battle for Atlantis (and a real chance of walking out of there 0-3), a BiG game and the ACC, I would have wanted an OOC schedule that would have allowed me to install my system, establish a culture of defending the home court and build some sort of confidence and momentum. I get it, but it may bite us.
Regardless, if we are actually having this discussion at the end of the year, then that is a wonderful problem to have. I thought the high water line for this team was 3 OOC losses, .500 in league play and squarely on the bubble. I thought that because we did have a couple of good pieces (Yurt, Markell) and I had that much faith in the coaching. We may get there, and if so that would be amazing.
One thing our teams have really struggled with in the past is focusing on the task at hand after a big win. We have seen it so many times with HWSNBN, Sid and Gott. We’ll think a huge upset where we played lights out (and Freeman’s 7-7 was exactly that), only to return hard to the norm the very next game. It’s like the guys go back to campus and hear how great they are and let up.
I’m looking for killer instinct this coming Saturday. ND embarrassed us last time. They are reeling. Jump on them early. Lose to ND and we could easily go 0-3 over 8 days and lose much of our momentum. We will learn as much about Keatts from what happens against ND as we hope we learned against UNC.
I thought it was a good hire as well as I’d watched a number of his games at Wilmington and knew of his Hargrave experience. Archie had a great resume, was an alum, and the stars seemed aligned, but Keatts wanted to be here. That worked with me.
This may end up as Yow’s best move as AD at State. If so, I’ll happily give her a mulligan on Gott (as much as I HATED that hire).
I liked Keatts more than breaking the bank on Marshall. I like that even more given what has transpired over the last 10 months. I also prefer Keatts’ style of play.
I like Marshall as a coach. I just like him more when we hired Sid (as opposed to Sid) than if we’d have made him one of the highest paid coaches in the game this past offseason. I also think that to hire Marshall at this point is trying to out Bennett UVA. I’m not sure that is a wise path. Better to out talent them, spread them out, speed them up.
I miss some of the mods that left. Hopefully they are on a break as opposed to permanently done. I was upset it wasn’t Archie, but it clearly wasn’t what he wanted and he had signaled that early. That is why we moved so aggressively. I was fine with it that. Yow got burned once by waiting around, and if we hadn’t have moved, Keatts would have been at Illinois.
Lot of crow to go around. I’m still glad that:
– Gott is gone
– We didn’t hire Will Wade. He had “Yow hire” written all over him.
– We ended up with Keatts. I will fully admit I thought Archie was our best bet but it was clear that wasn’t happening. When it wasn’t though, Keatts was by far the best fit.Al: I was on the Archie #1, but liked Keatts way more than any of the other names in play. I felt like we were locked in with Leatts early and I liked that we used our early position to get our coach within 24 hours of his tournament run being over. The fact that we did it before Archie was out was a clear indication it wasn’t Archie. I was mad for 15 minutes that it wasn’t Archie, but then was very happy it was Keatts.
Archie is doing well at IU. I think he is a great coach. I think we got a coach that fit the style of play that our fans want to see. Deep down I knew then (and I still feel) that we probably hired the best match for what we needed.
Great win today. I said before the game that I didn’t care what the outcome was because I knew the trajectory of the program. Beating UNC at UNC is NC state’s toughest game (well, that or the ACC tournament championship game). To go and get one today just suggests the progress is coming quicker than I expected.
Great game by Freeman, Markell, Yurt, DORN (stat stuffer), Beverly, etc.. Nice game management by Keatts. I thought we might get jobbed after the initial OT play, but we pushed through. Freeman had ice in his veins and Markell made some clutch plays down the stretch. High 5s all around.
As for the big picture, this road win will help out tournament profile. I still think if we can get to 9-9, we are a solid bubble team even with the non-conference schedule and the N. Iowa loss. Just keep grinding guys!
emember Gott lost it by 51 last year.. should have been fired before the sun set.
I agree that he should have been fired immediately. He did it with a NBA lottery player at college basketball’s most important position. That is one of the biggest eggs we have ever laid, and it wasn’t the least bit softened by the fact that UNC won the NCAA tournament at the end of the season. Last year was about as dark a year as I can remember for NC State basketball. I’m so glad that Gott is gone.
As my friend Paki said today, it is a tall order to go into the Nose Dome and win. I give us about a 10% chance at winning tomorrow. Paki suggested that the stats pundits have us about 12%. I’m not expecting a win, though I’d love one.
What I am looking for is whether the Pack are ready for the moment. Too many times we’ve gone in there, faced early adversity and just folded. Uncle Roy has known for years (HWSNBN, Sid and Gott) that if they jumped us in the first four minutes, they could cruise. At the same time, if we survived it, we were going to be in it to the end. We’ll see what happens in that crucial period tomorrow.
A lot of it will depend on how the game is officiated. If Yurt gets two quick ones, my suggestion would be to cut the TV off.
Win or lose, regardless of the margin, it doesn’t really change my opinion of Keatts. I’ve already seen enough improvement this year to know where we are headed. It’s just a matter of how long it takes.
Bill: I agree with you regarding the ACC in the 80s and early 90s. We were a finesse league and had to get more physical given the whistles went away in the NCAA tournament. I believe to this day that the original ACC/Big East challenge was great for the ACC in that we got an early look at a good, physical team that played more like the NCAA was going to be called.
Anyone remember when the Big East toyed with 6 fouls during the regular season? It seemingly had to bite them in the tournament when they had to adjust to going back to 5 fouls.
As for UVA in the NCAAs, here’s the losses they’ve had under Bennett and the FTs the other team shot:
– 2017: Florida shot 18, UVA shot 7
– 2016: Syracuse shot 25 free throws, UVA shot 12
– 2015: Michigan State shot 33 free throws, UVA shot 26
– 2014: Michigan State shot 18 free throws, UVA shot 17
– 2012: Florida shot 17 free throws, UVA shot 10In every one of those games, UVA’s opponents shot more free throws than their opponents.
Whiteshoes: I agree with you on some level regarding UVA. They push you (literally) away from the basket, double the easy shots close to the basket, and leave you less contested looks on long threes. They do clutch, grab, push and use the body though. Make no mistake. Wisconsin (the origin), plays the same way and they also foul a LOT.
Part of that strategy is just to foul on every play. The refs aren’t going to call all the fouls. Set the tone early and enjoy it through the game. I would argue that Duke and K brought that style of play to the ACC. Everyone else just learned from it.
The Tony Bennett rule is actually calling fouls. It is seemingly in effect during the NCAA tournament as UVA typically goes down fairly early to a hot shooting team when they don’t adjust to a tighter whistle.
The NCAA doesn’t need new rules (5 second, shot clock, etc.). They need to enforce the ones on the book.
I would agree that UVA (and their cousin Wisconsin) are unwatchable. I avoid watching them play because it is just poor entertainment. The ACC will eventually wake up that their “top” team plays god awful basketball and start calling them more tightly. After all, it is a business.
What isn’t asked about Tony Bennett is what his impact has on other schools in the conference. When he was in the Pac 10 (pre-PAC12), his Wazzou teams went to the top of the standings, and were in the top 10 at one point. The rest of the conference pivoted, got more physical, took the air out of the ball and tried to out Bennett Wazzou. It set their entire conference back years, both in popularity, recruiting, post-season success, etc.. The ACC cannot have that happen, and hopefully they’re smart enough to see it.
We already see teams like Clemson, BC, GT, Louisville, Syracuse, WF and FSU being more and more possession oriented. Only Duke, UNC, Notre Dame, State and Miami really want to get out and run and have an open game. The ACC is going to want to protect the blues and protect the brand image, so I suspect that the officiating will change.
I think losing a legitimate national player of the year candidate in Colsen is easily the biggest personnel loss any team in the conference has had. Grantham is probably second though because Clemson has much less talent.
Excessive dribbling was a problem..
Miami Rained successful 3’s…
A Freeman didn’t start, wasn’t fazed by it and still chunked up the shots….
M. Johnson had a tough day all around..
Y7 is becoming afactorstud…wish we had him another year!
Amazing we were even in contention in the last minute of the game!! Miami always seems to eat our cookies!!Good post by Zingo. I’d add a few things:
– The team looks better playing four around one with Yurt and Nard as the “One” and Dorn playing the four. I know some of our fans are hard on Dorn, but he gives us much more night in and night out than Abu does at this point. Granted, Abu picked up two quick fouls last night and was really out of the flow of the game.
– We managed to “hurry up” Miami. They do like to score more this year than in many years past, but during our first half run we pushed them into a slightly manic state. I think that’s the type of thing we’re looking to do night in and night out against most teams.
– Larranaga is a good coach. They won on the road despite some adversity. Miami plays great half court defense.
– Our 3 point and help defense is what we seemingly need to focus on the most.I remember quite well Larranaga’s George Mason teams and Final Four run. That was one of the great mid-major runs in the tournament.
I also remember when we hire Gott, Maryland hired Turg and Miami hired Larrañaga. I was pretty vocal then that Miami made the best hire, and time has clearly proven that to be correct. I am a little surprised about how long he has stayed. It was said (maybe just spin by State people) that Larrañaga wanted Miami to already be in Florida for retirement and was going to have one foot out the door like TOB. It has not seemed that way to me.
I would agree with those saying that the kids today are missing something with no camp. I was there when State shut it down, and was at the last two camps. I will admit it got rowdy and I knew there’d be consequences after the second one and the need to roll the fire trucks through multiple times. At the same time, it is no wonder that we haven’t had our same student section “vigor” since then. The students are far more amped up when they have had to “earn” the ticket by sleeping in the cold for a couple of days.
vawolf: It seems like you see the game much like I did. I’m not sure we won the game in the last four minutes so much as Wake collapsed on the road. They didn’t think they could win, caught a couple of bad breaks and folded. Credit goes to State for hitting just enough shots and free throws to not let Wake think they could win it. That’s not a knock on State. We believe, know we could do it, had the home crowd and got it done.
We did win the game, and we won it early in the second half. We were down five, and if Wake could have gotten that working lead to 5-10, they could have scored a huge road win. We came out, made the obviously needed adjustments (inside out and personnel), and pushed into the lead. That to me was halftime adjustments and coaching.
Miami will be a challenge. I honestly think they’ve got one of the best coaches in the ACC and arguably the best in game coach. If they get it close down near the end, Larranaga often times gets them to push through for a win. Granted, they often have a lot of upperclassmen, but they have them year over year so they’ve built a good program and pipeline. It will be a tough game against the type of team we have struggled against. It’s at home and Keatts seems to understand defending the home turf, so I do have hope.
In close games… coaching will usually win. Keatts is a real coach… for real.
I agree with this statement. We’ll learn more and more about Keatts in the coming years (I personally think he is our best men’s basketball coach since V), but the jury has clearly returned on Manning. Wake has led or been tied at the half in a very large number of games this year, yet has a losing record. Even with all the cupcakes, Manning has an overall losing record. I get that he inherited the Bzzzz mess, think he is a good recruiter (talent looked at least to our level), and think he is a great big man coach, but I don’t think he is a good head coach or in game coach (which was my point when Gott was losing to him). I hope Wake sticks with Manning as it will make Keatts’ job easier.
As for the game, I felt it was a tale of two halves more than a good last four minutes. Both teams had hot and cold shooting, but in the first half we settled for the first / lazy shot and jacked up a lot of threes and contested shots. In the second half we drove more, moved the ball more and were inside out and getting to the line. We were -5 in the first half and +14 in the second.
We also subbed and went small, where I think we just look much better. The Markell/Batts combo applies great pressure and having Markell out there lets Beverly come off the ball and become a scorer (think he is a combo more than a pure point at this level). The spacing is better which helps Yurt and Nard when they are the 1, and lets Dorn operate better.
Good game and let’s go get 6 more in the ACC during the regular season just like it. Beating Miami (if we could do it) would be huge. They are the type of team we have struggled against this year — well coached and strong defensively.
