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Sadly, I agree. Nothing is going to happen from the NCAA.
I do think it is fantastic. At least it is getting so obvious that the most diehard and isolated UNC people can’t deny it. That’s a win.
Pack1997: I’m fine for aspirations, but we need to be realistic. Unless we are going to double revenues, we are realistically only going to be good at one of the two.
Pick one, go all in and actually do it. It’s not going to work spreading it around thin like peanut butter.
We have many, many more institutional advantages in basketball. The barrier of entry is also lower. It makes far more sense to do that.
Quick thoughts:
– Those bigger TV deals are showing up.
– Nice profit margins for some of these guys for what is supposed to be “amateurs.” There seems to be a lot of room in there for profit sharing.
– This is what is tracked, reported and “above the board.” Imagine what is not tracked (both expenses and income).
– Does anyone consistently do less with more than Iowa?
– The “why can’t NC State be good at both football and basketball” crowd really needs to look hard at these numbers. The only schools doing both are high on this list. The rest seemingly pick one of the two and focus on that. We should focus on basketball.Brownell is one that I’d thought would be a good fit at NC State. When Clemson hired him, I thought it was a good move. He’s not tearing it up at Clemson and I think some combination of him and the institutional disadvantages of Clemson are holding him back a bit in recruiting. I think he’d have done better at NC State because his biggest weakness (recruiting) is something that every coach in my lifetime at NC State other than Les has done fairly easily.
As for the contract extension, maybe they locked him up for 6 years on the cheap? If so, it might not be a bad move. I don’t think the fans are going to want to push him out because the expectations there are different.
As for GT, Gregory has to be on borrowed time. He was a bad hire initially and GT is seemingly dead in the water. I understand that no “good” coach wanted that job given what was happening with the stadium renovations. Evidently Gregory came on the cheap and gave them an opportunity to get out of the financial mess that was Hewitt’s buy out.
I actually think GT is a good job. Yes it is a football state with very few places to hide players class and major wise, but you don’t need as many players in basketball. Also, the Atlanta metro has some talent (which we’ve mined fairly well recently). GT just needs to keep those kids at home.
As for the rest of the league, I think Miami is a great job. It has to be a piece of cake to recruit there. From a competitive situation, I’m thankful that Larranaga (who I think is a great coach) is going to eventually age out of that job.
That will also be the case with UNC, Duke, Syracuse and Louisville in the not so distant future. UNC and Duke seem to be machines that will roll on (though I suspect Duke may struggle with a successor if Collins doesn’t work out at NW and UNC may have problems if the playing field gets evened some), and Louisville has been up and down based on coach. Syracuse is the unknown to me. They didn’t have much before Jim B., and outside of the Carrier Dome, they don’t seem to have much going for them. They’re not really NYC’s team.
Of course, I thought the same about UConn and they won a title this year. I suspect given the way the deck is stacked, that these four will roll on.
choppack1: Respectfully, I don’t think sitting outside for four hours puts the fans at risk. Unpleasant experience? Sure. At risk? Only to purchasing future tickets.
I would admit that it could lead to heat exhaustion and dehydration for the players. Hydration will be an issue.
We’re going to take every “broadcasted” game we can get as a program. It’s better to be on the ACC network at 12:30 than to not have any coverage at 7 PM.
And nobody cares about the fans in the stands — not the NCAA, not the ACC and not the university. They care about eyes on the tube that generates way more revenue. Bowl games that are 20% filled has shown that.
Paint me as one who has rose colored glasses, but I am not doom and gloom about this coaching staff. Did they maximize what they had last year with respect to the win/loss column? Nope. Am I worried? Not really.
Everyone knew we had little talent, were small and slow and had little depth. That’s part of what got TOB fired. When the staff started talking about going up tempo in the offseason, then lots of losses last year was probably predictable. Granted, I thought we had enough cupcakes scheduled to eek out a bowl, but I figured there’d be a lot of blow outs as well. While we didn’t maximize what we had last year, we didn’t get blown out week in and week out either.
I think there are two ways to handle a rebuilding job. The first is to try and maximize the short term wins by implementing a system that takes advantage of what you have been left, but probably looks more like what the previous administration did. That might create more short term wins, but I think it undermines you with the long term plan. You eventually have to transition, but it’s a tougher sell to kids who have “seen” a body of work.
This staff decided to implement their system and take their lumps. I think that will work out better in years 3 and 4. They’ve shown what they’re going to do and thus will be able to more easily recruit kids who match up with that style.
I expect we’ll be 6-6 this year. That’s a step in the right direction.
If Congress actually gets involved, the combination of this sort of inconsistent enforcement and governance (USC, UNC, Penn State, smaller schools, Ohio State), the Northwestern lawsuit, the various lawsuits about conference realignment, the fact that football is incredibly dangerous to one’s long term health yet the NCAA and its institutions are seemingly doing nothing about it, and the fact that the “education” piece is as big of a sham as the term “student” in student athlete is enough of a cocktail to potentially bring down the NCAA.
I for one wouldn’t mind it one bit. One of two things need to happen:
1) Complete overhaul of the system with benefits provided to student athletes. These benefits may not be salaries, but may be part of the royalties, include disabilities, etc..
2) Complete change of the system to return to no benefits whatsoever. Let the kids go straight to the professional leagues at any age.I’d actually be all for #2. Doing the first would be a situation where the more things changed, the more they stayed the same. I suspect due to all the money involved, it would be #1.
As for UNC, nothing is going to happen to them. If Congress gets involved, knowing that being found “guilty” of inconsistent enforcement would be another nail in the coffin for them, the NCAA is going to really circle the wagons to protect how they handled the UNC case.
For the first time in the past 20 years, we have a Chancellor who actually is focused on the right things, has a plan and has the leadership abilities to actually bring it to reality.
We need to keep Woodson a long, long time.
A lot of good stuff here:
– I love the initial analysis. I did something similar when we hired Gott. He’s been quite a good offensive coach and quite a mediocre defensive one. Against high major peers (and thus teams with similar talent levels), the defense has been on the poor side. The best defenses from Gott have always been about average.
– Some argue it’s the players and recruiting. I don’t buy it other than physical attributes of those recruited. Defense is about effort, the scheme, intelligence and helping. Those things can be taught and the effort is a culture.
– I don’t agree with the post stating that they’re hoping staff changes happen to fix the defense. From some recent accounts (related to Lutz leaving), Gott is teaching the offense and the defense. I’m not sure how swapping an assistant helps that.
– I agree with BJD, that in college basketball I would rather be great on offense and above average on defense than great on defense and above average on offense. The reason is that teams that can’t score typically vulnerable in the tournament — particularly those who play stall ball. That’s part of why Wisconsin under Ryan has stalled out so many times. This year they just got lucky with the seed (had them in my Final Four) and the fact that Arizona was playing without a starter lost mid year. Virginia kind of struggled to score this year at times, and the first time they ran into a team with a good defense in Michigan State, they lost. These types of teams are just one emotional high or hot shooting 3 point team from getting knocked out.Triad: Thanks for the link. It almost makes me cry to be honest. That’s the NC State that I grew up watching, not the garbage that has been on display from Les on. I loved all the changing defenses, full court pressure, tenacity and the fact that our team had real, undeniable talent. The administration at NC State should be ashamed of what they did to V.
On topic, I’d hoped that TL would grow into some semblance of Corch by the time he was a Senior. I didn’t think he’d be as good as Corch, but I thought he could follow that model of improvement. That video shows me that it’s probably not going to happen. Corch played with an entirely different level of tenacity — not to mention the gaps in ball handling, defense, shooting and strength.
choppack: Sorry, but I don’t agree with you. Sean Miller has so much respect for HWSNBN that he wouldn’t come to NC State? BS! By all accounts, Miller was begging for the job when we hired Lowe, but Fowler wanted a “name.”
Also, if that held any truth at all, Sean wouldn’t have gone to Arizona, to compete with HWSNBN directly head to head. Sean would’t take a job against his beloved mentor at the rival school.
Not only did he take the job, but his Arizona teams have stomped ASU most of the times they played (granted, ASU won a close one this year). HWSNBN had a big head start on Miller, but Miller has blown by him, much like Roy did at UNC.
With respect to Archie, I’m sure he’d love to come to NC State. Who wouldn’t want to coach at their Alma Mater? This is doubly true given that he participated in an activity by playing basketball for four years that had him way more involved in the campus life and alumni than the average student. Heck, the Millers pushed for Arch to get the job publicly in the newspapers. That wouldn’t happen if he weren’t interested.
Pack1998: I’d love to give HWSNBN the benefit of the doubt, but we saw this season after season in Raleigh. Also, if you look at that article, those were very specific and carefully worded statements — that are eerily similar to what we saw. HWSNBN and his camp put that out there intentionally.
eas: I agree. I really hope that Arch ends up at NC State. He’s got the pedigree to be a great coach.
Slow clap….. That is EXACTLY what I thought, almost verbatum, when I read the “article.”
The only thing that you left out is that the same media buddies that blasted NC State for running off HWSNBN were the same ones that HWSNBN leveraged to put out his “messaging.” They thought they were getting some sort of scoop, but it was just HWSNBN’s camp playing Fowler.
For all of HWSNBN’s documented and well debated pros and cons, I think his biggest pro was how he played the media. Granted, it wasn’t for the best interest of NC State (or ASU). It was always for the best interest of HWSNBN.
Pun filled thought of the day: Smart to WF would be a smart hire if WF could pull it off. I suspect Smart thinks it would be smart to leave VCU while bigger suitors are still calling. Eventually the big suitors smarten up and decide someone just wants to stay at a “lesser” job. As a NC State fan (or member of the administration), it would really smart if Smart took the WF job.
In all seriousness, I expect Wellman to swing for the fences. What does he really have to lose?
Howland is not that guy though. He ran a train wreck at UCLA and seems too blue collar for WF.
Arch is much too green. I think he’s a good coach and will be a great one. I don’t think that’s the hire that saves Wellman’s hide. I’m really hoping that he’ll end up at NC State, but that is looking less likely. We’ll have Gott a long time given the way the contract is structured.
You heard it here first — Tommy Amaker. Wake will “steal” one from Harvard, which is what they aspire to be. He’ll be a hot name after what appears will be a Sweet 16 run. You have to think he’s itching to prove himself again at a a high major.
Off topic, but the Duke loss leaves me mixed. Does it take some heat off of State short term? Yep. Am I happy on some level to watch the Rat go down? Yep.
It’s bad for the league, just like us blowing a huge lead was. Indirectly, that hurt us.
It is probably good for Duke long term, because the last few Duke teams have really been hurt by going for the 1 and done type players. I think they’ll go back to their traditional model and actually be better. What’s good for Duke is typically not good for State.
I really think this game will be decided in the first 5 minutes. St. Louis is going to come out focused given how many have picked NC State, how much they’ve fallen off at the end of the year, etc.. I fully expect their coach to be playing the underdog card. They’ve also go 5 seniors who don’t want to go out that way.
The question to me is whether NC State comes out with the same focus and intensity. If we do, then I like our chances. Get behind by 5-8 early and it is going to be a long night.
I like the suggestion of planting Vandy/BJ firmly in the lane. St. Louis doesn’t have much height. Swat a few back at them and they’ll have to beat us from the perimeter as opposed to bulling inside with the cannonball.
Great win last night. I thought we looked the best we had all season. We’re definitely peaking at the right time.
I really liked how we pushed the ball in transition for easy buckets. It is so much easier for us to score in transition with the finishers that we have (Warren and Vandy) and the set up players we have (Lewis and Barber) than it is to score in the half court against a set defense where defenses can double up up Warren and Turner.
I also liked our defense. Yes, we gave up some points inside to the big fella, but the guard match ups that concerned me more all went our way. That was the key to the game. Hats off to Turner and Lee on the defensive end on the guards and the block party put on by Anya, Vandy, Freeman and Washington was just ferocious.
I hope we stay focused against St. Louis. This is the type of game we have been known to lose — when we’re kind of looking ahead and then lay an egg. We’re still the 12 seed and had to play a game just to get the privilege to actually play in the tournament with everyone else.
I found the fact that he leads in scoring and FG% amazing. Both Grant and Tim Duncan won ACC POY.
TJ’s not only a scorer, he’s highly efficient. He’s not a high volume guy and that is quite rare.
This league would be even more of a sham than it already is if a high volume scorer like Eric Green can win ACC POY while on a wretched team, but a highly efficient scorer like Warren doesn’t from an average team.
Warren’s numbers should also put him in the national All American race as a well. It will be a darn shame if the weakness of this league and our bubble status holds him back.
On topic, Warren is our best all around player since Hodge, and the best scorer we’ve had since Monroe. That makes him one of our 3 best players in the last 20+ years, which makes him a very special player.
I tend to think he’s a cross of both of them. I agree with a lot of what BJD said about the similarities with Monroe and his ability to score. Monroe was better outside, but Warren can get in and fight around the rim and go dunk. In that respect he’s more like Hodge, who was the consummate slasher despite his thin frame. Like both Hodge and Monroe, Warren also has the will to win.
It’s a shame that the ACC has fallen so far that a player such as Warren isn’t going to get the national recognition that he deserves. If we were the RPI #1 league right now, then he’d absolutely be getting All American type recognition, even with us muddling along. As it sits now, he’s just the leading scorer on an average team, in a good, but not great league.
Expansion has really hurt the ACC’s basketball product. Yes, I understand that Miami, VT and BC have at times been competitive, that Syracuse and Pitt are primed for top 5 finishes their first year in the league and that Louisville is coming. I would argue though that more often than not, VT, BC and Miami will be near the bottom (though Larranaga at Miami is interesting) and that ND and Pitt will level out around mid-conference and that we don’t know what is going to happen with Syracuse and Louisville (particularly Syracuse) when their coaches soon retire.
The last two coaching searches were complete clusters. The “email” from Yow was as bad as the media circus that Fowler ran.
We seemingly had 2-3 good options that wanted to be here and ended up with a guy who was out of coaching. How we “Gott” here was and still is baffling.
Having said that, we have Gott now and should support him. The interesting thing to me is that this is the best coaching and staff we’ve had since V. It’s not to say that we should just accept it, but we should be mindful that our previous 3 coaches over the past 20 years were just bad.
I’m a little surprised at the level of backlash, typically given the number of games the staff has won in the time they have won them. We’ve gone from not competitive to a very tough out, danced twice, went to the Sweet 16 and have drastically improved.
People were talking about Lutz as the defensive guru and are saying that he sets the defense. Was he really that and does he really do that? I seem to remember the “defensive guru” stuff being tied into rumors of Dino. I’ve always thought of Lutz as an offensive guy and particularly one that helps shooters. That was seemingly his role at Iowa State and what his teams at Charlotte are good at.
I always thought year 3 would be tough due to Lowe’s scholarship spacing. Transfers haven’t helped us either. We basically have one Senior and the rest of the team are freshman and sophomores. That’s tough to win with, as Calipari is finding out for the second year in a row.
COWDOG hit on what I have been thinking and saying for two years. I think we’d be better served by playing a match up zone defense. We don’t play fundamentally sound man to man. Yes, we’ve held teams to low shooting percentages, but when we do that, we typically don’t pair it with good rebounding, help defense or with generating lots of turnovers.
I will admit we’ve squandered a huge amount of talent the last couple of years. Warren’s the best player we’ve had since Hodge and the best scorer we’ve had since Monroe. It will be sad to see him go so quickly, without the team meeting any higher goals.
I’m not making excuses, but I’d expected we’d lose against Miami. It’s tough to take a loss like UNC in the way it happened and not have that carry over. That’s especially true of a younger team with younger guards.
I see comments about Gott and recruiting. NC State has been able to recruit well at any time since Les. NC State will continue to be able to recruit well. As we’ve discussed here, coaches can recruit well because they’re at NC State. I’m not as worried about that.
The good news is that we’re stacking classes. That’s what it is going to take to get us over the top. You can’t beat UNC and Duke who have full teams worth of players with only 1/2 a team. When we add in the class next year, assuming we can keep everyone on board (well, except Warren), we’re one step closer. Follow that up with a class in 2015, and we’ll be one of the oldest, deepest, most talent teams in the league.
My biggest concern with Gott isn’t X’s and O’s, isn’t defense, isn’t recruiting and isn’t program management. It’s mental toughness. I don’t think he has it, and therefore it’s hard to impart that on his team. I think the mental element is the single biggest thing holding him back.
One other thing, for all those who think Gott’s going anywhere, any time soon, they really need to review his contract extension. It’s not exactly a contract for life, but it is one that I don’t think we’re going to buy out any time soon.
Gott is Yow’s coach. For Gott to get the hook, Yow seemingly will as well. This isn’t a coach that she inherited. This is one that she picked, and then immediately went to bat for to renegotiate the contract. To try and remove him would effectively mean she needs to be removed. Not happening. The same applies to DD in football. The fans should accept this and get on board.
Good analysis. I think if we win the last 3 and at least one in the ACC tournament, we’re in. Let’s get it done.
A lot of the power conferences are weak this year. There are bids up for grabs, particularly due to the consolidated leagues.
I’ve watched Wichita State and they look very solid. They’re sound defensively, have nice ball spacing, shoot well and can actually rebound.
I hate to say it, but I have to think of “what might have been.”
pakfanistan: Good job. Yet another outlier. Opponents in Luckie called games go to the line at a 93% higher rate than our opponents in any other game. Awesome.
I contend that we’re not great and we weren’t expected to be. We’re trending right where I thought we would — on the bubble.
I don’t believe that the good teams should get all the calls any more than I think that the teams are good because they got all the calls. For a team with a razor thin margin of error like ours, a little bit of “help” from our friends in stripes can make a huge difference in our overall season outcome. That’s not really the discussion though.
The discussion to me is whether there’s something wonky with ACC officiating. I’m not looking at it from what my biased eyes see — which has suggested to me that it’s been atrocious for years — but am trying to examine it from a numbers basis. There are a lot of outliers that can’t just be explained via rationalization, sort of like what you call out above.
