Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
By the way, if these predictions come true, this would be the best State MBB regular season since 1988-89 under Valvano. Really impressive in Keatts’ first season on the job.
Archie who?
Exactly. Of course as my grandmother used to say, “if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, every day would be a holiday.” There’s a lot of basketball left to be played.
“Bobby Lutz” coached a lot of STATE kids up. <period>
I argued at the time we hired Gott that Lutz would have made a better head man and Gott the recruiting assistant. I still believe that. Of course, I don’t think Lutz would have ever hired Gott on his staff.
Ply: I love the Marshall reference.
Bill: I don’t think that 3-1 is the minimal acceptable. Heck, we could go 1-3 and still make the level that I was told was not achievable before the seasons started. I do understand that going 2-2 will “feel” like a let down given the momentum we are riding, but even then that would leave us at 10-8. That’s more than our previous two ACC seasons combined.
Gott had one year at 10-8 and one year at 11-7. He had one year at 9-7 before the conference moved to 18 games. His other 3 years were below 10-8. Go 3-1 and we’re at 11-7, which was the high water mark of Gott and that team had 4 McDonald’s AAs plus Brown, Wood and Howell.
I personally think we CAN go 4-0. We might make it into the tournament at 2-2. I would agree with the spirit of your post that 3-1 likely punches the NCAA ticket.
freshmanin83: I think Clemson will lose some. Injuries are catching up to them.
Good to win, even if it is ugly. It had us at 9-9 in the ACC before the year started and was routinely told to be realistic and that it wasn’t going to happen. Now that would feel like a let down. That’s how much this team has overachieved. Just keep winning!
The officiating was pretty bad. At one point in the second half we’d committed 9 fouls and WF only 2 d spite us being the team that was only a couple of makes/stops from blowing the game wide open. Definitely some home whistles, though tip of the cap to Wake for scrapping until the bitter end. We need to box out better and make a few more FTs and it wouldn’t have mattered.
Some quick Tobacco Road thoughts. Yesterdday’s win puts us at 7-22 at the Joel. I knew it was bad but didn’t realize just how bad. Time to go in a 16 year winning streak. 😀 We swept Wake for the first time in six years and avenged getting swept last year. That puts us at 4-1 against Wake, UNC and Duke on the year. I would take that from now until the end of time.
Go Pack!
Normally we have a “tough” schedule but have lost to most of the good teams and have 2-3 wins at most against anyone with a pulse. That was the description of most of the HWSNBN teams and 2 of Gott’s. We often backed into the tournament, or got hot in the ACC tournament. The RPI might have been good, but we were a paper tiger. There’s reason that a Sweet 16 was the high water mark.
This year we have a pathetically weak non-conference schedule that is probably even worse than we imagined when we put it together. Check out the win totals on some of those teams like Bryant, UKMC, Jacksonville, etc.. We played 2 good teams, 2 borderline bubble teams and went 2-2 and took a bad loss to N. Iowa. Our season changed when we beat Duke, and from there we’ve collected several quality wins. Keep rolling off the wins and we’d go to the ACC tournament actually trying to play for our seed, which hasn’t really happened since Hodge. I also think NC State is a dangerous team that most higher seeds would not want to draw.
My fear is we’re just getting things going with the whole sport (and us) about to be blown apart…
We have to take care of business against Wake, BC and GT. Do that and we make 10 ACC wins. That alone MIGHT get us in depending on the ACC tournament and the rest of the bubble teams.
The ACC isn’t going to carry teams in the same way it has in the past, or carry us to multiple #1 seeds. We’re not the #1 RPI conference.
State tied in regulation at Chapel Hill and late at Cuse, and they come out with a win both times. I know there’s plenty to work on, but that speaks volumes to me.
Yep, and we’re doing it without some lights out shooter or great FT shooter that can just ice a game away. We’re doing it as a function of a team effort.
I tend to think our conditioning pays off in the last 4-5 minutes of the game. Our guys last night were really deep into their defensive stances even late in the game. Syracuse (admittedly with only 6 players) looked gassed. Last year half our team looked like they might have a heart attack late in the games.
Gotcha, that makes sense. I probably would have got that if we were having a face to face conversation or at least I hope so.
No worries. I didn’t explain it well.
V should never have been AD as well. NC State should have just paid him what he was worth and everything would have been fine.
Bill: I forgot to mention that I watched a bunch of Dayton, VCU, Witchita State and Butler games over the 1-2 years leading up to our coaching hire. I was sold on Archie, thought that we missed on Marshall when we hired Sid but that he’d be too much $$$ relative to his worth, and thought both Keatts and Holtmann could work and might come.
I was thoroughly convinced that Wade was not the right coach for NC State. He might do well at LSU, but I would think that is more a function of LSU and the fact that they can lock down the state and New Orleans area on recruiting. Do that year in and year out, and there’s enough talent there to make some noise every 3rd or 4th year.
In this instance though, it is the FBI and they have unreported payments (tax evasion) behind them. The NCAA won’t be able to duck that.
I’m just afraid that this is focused on Adidas because they’re a European company. Nike (a US company) is doing the same (or worse) and won’t have it come to them.
I’m not writing the Louisville game off. I don’t think they’re that good. They’ve got a high RPI, but who have they actually beaten that is any good? They also got smashed by a poor (by their standards) Kentucky team.
I’m just saying that because we won last night we don’t HAVE to win out to get in. We just can’t flub up with a bad loss. A win over another bubble team in FSU who we’re competing with for the last spot in the tournament is going to help us.
Do those two things and we don’t have to beat Louisville given we beat Syracuse. Lose a lower one, and we may need that game against Louisville.
We hadn’t won at Syracuse since 2001. Granted, we’d only played there about 5 times ever. The Dome isn’t the easiest place to play and was quite loud with the Orange were on their comeback and tied it at 70. Previous State teams would have folded. Not this one. It was nice to see us push back ahead and send Jim B. home whining. Yeah the process was ugly, but we got the win.
That one will be crucial if we actually do get in the tournament because it is likely going to come down to our head to head record against other mediocre high major programs who are also on the bubble. The NCAA wants to punish teams with weak non-conference (elective) schedules, but we have the top line wins to kind of offset that. We just need to not flub up (i.e. beat WF, BC and GT) and take care of business against fellow bubble teams (FSU). Go 4-1 the rest of the way, with only a loss to Louisville, and I think we’re a lock.
(that’s why football rules…not enough)
Football has it as well. Check out the debates about who makes the “Final Four” playing for the championship. It will eventually get expanded to 16 games and the conference championship games will be eliminated. There will be more $$$ (which is what it is really about), and the argument will be that the only teams that really have a chance at a title will be there. There still will be debates though because where ever there is an arbitrary cutoff point, there will be complaining around the teams near that line, even if they have no real statistical chance of winning it all.
The RPI debates are really about the last 4-6 teams in every year, and 4-6 teams that got left out. Of teams of that profile, VCU with Smart is about the last one that I can really remember that went on any sort of run. Much ado about nothing, but what it means is that there’s buzz and interest about college basketball (and by extension these sorts of sites) during the regular season. If not, the only interest would be during the tournament (much like the NBA).
VAWolf’s write up is great. I knew the quadrant breakdown and how different wins could be viewed home vs. away, etc., but hadn’t really thought of the “winners and losers.” It will be interesting to see how this changes the predictive brackets, if at all. I would tend to agree that the committee’s “mix of inputs” leaves it open to them doing whatever they want. 😀
This is shoe gate. Unfortunately for us it is focused on Adidas schools. We had Gott and his last year here he hired a known bag man.
It is amazing to me that Nike is just as bad if not worse, and they’re seemingly getting off at this point. That Phil Knight invitational was like a “Whose Who” of cheating.
Coming in I saw six things that worried me tonight:
– A hungry opponent with a lot to play for that viewed this as a must win game.
– Two straight losses for the good guys.
– Pretty much a must win game for NC State to have any shot st the tournament.
– Road game
– Syracuse’s size
– Our zone offensePut those together and it was a very tough game.
It was ugly. The officials were awful both ways. Stat stuffer and Yurt had quiet nights. Markell fouled out. Somehow we won. Hunt had his best game of the year and Batts gave us critical second half minutes (my unofficial +/- had him as way positive).
Great team win. The ice cream will tast good tonight no matter how cold it is up in NY.
When you charge students to attend an event of their student peers, that is a problem. It’s bad enough that there’s money in student fees, but there are a lot of student fees that make up the college experience. To charge on top of that is just a money grab.
I’m with those that say 1 game a year at most is enough for me in person. It is about the experience, the tailgate, the sun, the sites, conversing with friends, etc.. I wouldn’t want season tickets, and I wouldn’t want to go on the road unless I had other reasons for that trip.
I don’t even watch most games live any more. I am fine with seeing the recorded event in the evening, skipping the commercials, with the ability to turn it off when I lose interest. In the end, I think that this impacts the butts in seats more than anything else. All that TV money and increased TV coverage eventually cuts both ways — in that people aren’t going to show up.
NC State would be wise not to expand CF. We overbuilt with the ESA, and we don’t need to repeat that in football.
The HWSNBN supporters who ran down V baffled me. I figured that they had some connection to the program, gained personally from that, or really were just like a scared, kicked dog. His supporters are a larger part of why he is HWSNBN in my mind. His supporters and enablers would stop at nothing, including artificially capping the program’s expectations, to try to make him seem successful. He was a gamble, it didn’t work out, and when he should have been fired he bought more time with the Hodge class (and leaving them unsigned). From that point forward though, it was just increasingly contentious and we had highly ineffective leadership. Running down V was just one of the ways the enablers operated and why that was a dark period.
Those that ran down V to support Lowe and Gott seemed just clueless to me. They were both the Titanic from the beginning with the iceberg straight ahead. With both coaches it was obvious early in year 2 that it wasn’t going to work out. Sid got time because he was a beloved alum, and because we had Fowler. Gott got more time because he pulled a rabbit out of the hat a couple of more times before the train ran completely off the track.
WUF: We miss you as well though I do understand. This is the only NC State forum I’m really active with any more. On the rest I just lurk with a passing interest. I wish we’d see a BJD sighting.
Heelh8r: I hear you. My concern is that this is more about philosophy. Some are man only. Some are zone only. Some are “try anything that works.” I do get that specializing on one thing probably means that you’re going to eventually be better at it (see Bennett’s packed line). I suspect Keatts is a man + press guy. I do think a trapping 1-3-1 could be fairly easily introduced because it seemingly is similar to a lot of the full court presses.
I also understand that trying to be a good at a lot of defenses probably leaves one a master at nothing. It’s hard to say what I would do if my career relied on teaching 18-22 year olds to perform at a high level playing a team sport, particularly given how lacking many of them are in the fundamentals of the game. I doubt I’d try to install a new defense 2/3rds of the way through the season (remember Sid’s attempt one season to go to the 2-3 about this time?). Now’s the time to hone in on whatever you do well, drop the excess and come home strong down the stretch.
I do miss V and his creativity though, and it’s a real shame that probably half the living Wolfpack alumni never really saw him coach. If they did, they would have recognized just how ridiculous some of their pathetically weak attempts to prop up later coaches were.
The charge rule circle is a good one. It cuts off the Duke undercut/flop and that is important. Someone was going to end their career due to that little move, likely the offensive player who was up in the air, exposed and could have come down wrong hurting a back, shattering an ankle, etc..
Wuf: It’s a chicken or egg problem. Most kids aren’t coming in very skilled in the fundamentals, particularly not the ones that Gott targeted with recruiting. It just wasn’t his style. He was star chasing, and that’s fine, but a lot of his players were much more “raw” than the type of kid targeted by UVA (whose recruits typically had a similar or lower star level). How do you find fundamentals? In my mind, look for good correlation with shooting. Most of the kids Gott recruited really weren’t very good shooters.
So, if we’re not targeting kids that came with strong fundamentals, then we have to teach them. Gott didn’t do much of that, at least not as it related to fundamentals. It also clearly didn’t happen last year without Lutz.
Then there’s attrition. You’ve got to keep them around, and in a system where they’re learning, and learning to play together. We’ve had far too many leave early.
People love to point to UVA as strong in fundamentals and I would agree. I think they recruit to it, drill to it, and then have high player retention. They were NOT good in Bennett’s first couple of years. I remember because a lot of the board coaches here told me that he was a bad hire and that Lowe was better. I told them to watch out because Bennett was a great hire and would take UVA to the top of the league like he had done Wazzou. The point, is that even for Bennett, the master of fundamentals in the league, it didn’t happen over night. Case in point:
2009–10 Virginia 15–16 5–11 T–9th
2010–11 Virginia 16–15 7–9 T–7th
2011–12 Virginia 22–10 9–7 T–4th NCAA Round of 64
2012–13 Virginia 23–12 11–7 T–4th NIT QuarterfinalsSo, while I would agree that IF our current level of talent had UVA’s fundamentals, we’d finish in the top 4. They do not, and don’t have the years in system that UVA’s players do. It’s a mixed bag of players who are really trying hard, but who have had very different training. The ones from NC State were coached by Gott and weren’t that drilled on fundamentals, or were more raw out of high school.
What should we expect that of Keatts in year one? I think he’s done pretty well, and he’s on pace to do better than Bennett did. For year one, I’m fine with it, as long as we start seeing a trend line up like UVA did with Bennett. If we have this same glaring lack of fundamentals in year 4, then we do have some problems.
Bill: I have watched UNCW on and off for a few years. I liked Brownell when he was coaching there and thought he would have been a good coach for State. I always knew that Gott would flame out because he was a bad hire to start with. When I started hearing some buzz about Keatts (year 1), I watched a handful of games. The general public took notice against Duke in the NCAA tournament, but by that game, I already knew a little about Keatts. I tracked them last year when it was clear before the season that it was put up or shut up time for Gott. I figured Keatts would be on our list, along with Archie, particularly when I heard that Murphy liked him. When I thought there was a chance we’d hire him, I watched some more and then watched some more after we hired them (including re-watching some of the games I’d previously watched).
I won’t say I’m an expert on Keatts. I’m not. A UNCW alum would know more because they’d likely watched more. I did like what I saw, and felt his system would be perfect for NC State. The kids played hard, played 4 around 1 (where we’ve had our best success this year), shot the 3, pressed a LOT (which I love), featured a big that put up gaudy stats, and were really tough at home. I was okay for trying that.
State was spread out from Alaska to Hawaii for the entire 2nd half.
This is the common denominator for a coach who refuses to believe in an active zone.
The ensuing points about what might have come with Yurt, etc. are speculative but I agree with the sentiment. We seem allergic to zone, and UNC is the perfect type of team to do it against. The typical argument against zone is the rebounding, but we couldn’t have done much worse. I think I read that on every UNC miss other than one in the second half they got the rebound. So they either scored, or got the rebound on every possession that wasn’t a turnover. We just can’t win that way.
The thing is that there are zones that fit our philosophy like the 1-3-1. Get a good trap going with that, and it’s a pretty nasty defense, especially with a long player like Yurt in the middle and a stat stuffer like Dorn on the baseline. A zone doesn’t have to mean passive.
Want more active ball pressure? Try a diamond and 1 or a triangle and 2. Markell on the ball with a zone behind him would be something to see. Man I miss V.
Hopefully we see some zone in year 2……….
The very best thing Gott did was schedule. Given the attention to detail given to the schedule, I wouldn’t at all be surprised if that wasn’t a delegated task. Isn’t that normally done by the Director of Basketball Operations?
I suspect this year’s schedule was built with Keatts having no expectation of actually being on the bubble. The Battle of Atlantis was locked in as was Penn State, so it kind of made sense to schedule up a bunch of exhibition quality games to get the system in.
We’ll learn more about Keatts’ scheduling philosophy next year. I think he’s confident enough to schedule well.
This fan base may learn to appreciate the importance of the non-conference schedule this year. For far too long I’ve heard these arguments that the non-conference didn’t matter, just in in the ACC and it takes care of itself. The issue is that too big of a hole can be dug to climb out of. Sure, many of those years when I was talking about this (Sid, Gott), we didn’t end up with a winning record, so the point was moot.
This year we’re on the bubble and would have really benefited from the benefit of a harder schedule to the numbers. It is not like this was unforeseen, as I’d kind of thought we’d have 2-3 non-conference losses and go .500 in the league. That’s right what we’re on track for.
Today according to KenPom, we’re 344 out of 351 on the non-conference strength of schedule. The only solace is that fellow high-major bubble teams Mississippi State, FSU, VT, KState and Penn State are all at around 320+. It may come down to head to head within this group, and we’re 1-1. FSU will be huge.
I’m with you Va in that getting to 9-9 doesn’t just get us in because our OOC SOS is so dreadful. We have the top line games, but we need the overall RPI. Get two out of three (top line, RPI and overall schedule) and you’re likely in, but right now we are missing two out of the three.
I knew this week would be tough because VT and UNC were both good teams that were still hungry. Syracuse is the same, and it is on the road against a zone. It’s going to take another top level effort like we had against Arizona, Duke or UNC in order to come out with a win.
I hate to say it, but I think we need to beat Syracuse. Even if we were to beat BC, WF and GT (no guarantee), I don’t think we’re in if we lose the rest. We pretty much need no slip ups and at least 1 of 3 against Syracuse, FSU and Louisville. It’s doable, but it’d be best if we somehow got that road win (road is better for the RPI) against Syracuse. Pushing them out would also help us get in.
You talking about this?
Here’s the quote I was talking about:
UNC senior Joel Berry stirred things up Tuesday by saying he didn’t consider N.C. State to be a rival for UNC. He heard plenty of boos from the irked crowd, but finished with 16 points.
”I ain’t got nothing to say,” Berry said. ”My play spoke tonight, and that’s all I’ve got to say.”
With Pinson cackling from the next locker, Berry shrugged off a follow-up question, too.
”If y’all have got any more questions about it, put that statement on your article,” he said. ”But that’s all I’m saying.”
They doth protest too much. At the same time, it doesn’t make me dislike them any less.
Our half court defense has been mixed all year. The effort is good, but the rotations are not. Our best defense is out of the full court press. Rome wasn’t built in a day, but I do believe we have improved more on offense this year than defense and the stats support it. Of course that could also be a result of the personnel. I don’t think Keatts is ever going to be a coach whose team finishes in the top 25 in overall defense or point for possession defense, but I do think we can be a winning team.
I knew we were in for a tough week with VT and UNC. At this time of the year it is more about who is playing for anything, and VT and UNC both were. Syracuse is as well and that one is on the road. Wake is probably playing to make sure they aren’t in 4th of the ACC teams in NC. They’d pushed back to even with us in Gott’s last two years. So expect two tough games. The team had better be ready.
