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VaWolf82: You may be right about a Wednesday win not being enough, but I’m not sure whether that is the case. Let’s say we lose the 3 toughest games, but win the rest. That puts us at 10-8 with a solid, but solidly bubble type of RPI. It could go either way, and a lot of that would be based on what happens in other conference tournaments, with other high majors, etc..
We’d be playing on Wednesday. We’d likely be playing a lower team winner. We simply couldn’t afford to lose that game. It’d become a must win, thus my statement that we have to win at least 1 in the ACC tournament.
Now, if we lose those big 3 games, and lose one of the WTF games (like tonight), then we’re probably going to need to win 2 in the ACC tournament. If we can only get one truly good win (against Duke), do we really think we’re going to win 2 in the ACC tournament, particularly given that second game is against one of those good teams on more rest?
For a while we’ve been in a spot where we need to go at least .500 against the other ACC bubble teams (Syracuse, Miami, Pitt), hold serve against the bottom and maybe sneak 1-2 out against the top. The non-conference RPI carries us in otherwise.
Games against Clemson (not holding serve) and Miami (differentiation) really hurt us. In the back half, we pretty much have to beat WF, Syracuse, BC, VT and Clemson.
Beat UVA at home (the most likely of the 3 tough games), and we should be dancing. Lose all three of those and we’ll need to win at least 1 in the ACC tournament.
I don’t think anyone thinks that Gott and the team are horrid. They’re just disappointed that we’re here, at this spot, again — despite what to my eyes looks like better talent than that.
WF tonight is must win though. The team has to have a sense of urgency starting now.
Rick: I’m with you. I believe we’re recruiting with 3 slots in mind. We’ve just not filled them.
Regardless of what is in the pipeline currently, you can’t take a 0 in a recruiting class because of scholarship spacing. That’s what did Al Skinner in at BC. It’s also why Sid’s “6 pack” class was so, uhm, questionable. People arguing the pipeline excuse just don’t seem to understand recruiting and the nature of transfers in college basketball.
If we have transfers out this year, and no one coming in next year, then this staff will enter the season with some actual heat. I still think due to contract situation that they could probably miss this year and suck out loud next year and nothing would happen, but I could be wrong. I also think we’ll sign a couple of kids late and probably see 1 transfer.
Nice work that went into this. I definitely appreciate it. The numbers based analysis is definitely more compelling, but I know from personal experience that it takes a long time to do.
I know it’s difficult, but I’d like to see the same work done with UVA, Maryland, Syracuse and UNC over the same period of time. I think they each represent an interesting case study against NC State:
– UVA: What a program truly headed up looks like. Grind it out and defensive oriented. I suspect that they don’t get down by 10 much and when they get an opponent down by 10, then they don’t let up.
– Maryland: Coaching hire the same year we did, and really kind of stumbled with the Turg out of the gate.
– Syracuse: Plays a stall ball game. One would think that there’d be fewer > or < 10 scenarios, or at least ones that actually moved.
– UNC: Very fast pace of play and a high # of possessions. This would suggest there are more large lead swings due to the more fluid game. Does that actually happen?Anecdotally, it feels like we have lots of games where the lead swings wildly. It feels like we give up more big leads than we make up (numbers suggest 2:1). We also could just have more talent than other teams, which causes us to be up versus down roughly 2:1.
It’s good news. Yes, that’s probably shocking knowing where I was mid season with the prediction that coordinator changes would happen if we didn’t turn things around. We did, and the staff is seeming staying mostly in tact, riding recruiting and offseason momentum into next year.
I do think we’d hedged our bets a bit with the WR coach hire. Had Canada left, I wouldn’t have been surprised at all to see him come in. Hopefully Canada helps bring him along.
I thought the inside track on that one was a MAC guy from one of Butch Jones’ previous stops.
I don’t think Marshall’s ego wanted to be anything other than the #1 pick. I think he’d be that now.
I tend to agree with Roo’s assessment of the search. He’s got more insider information than I do, but it aligns with what I put together.
I thought it was the Turg who was honored/intimidated by UNC. He went to Kansas, played under Brown and thus kissed the altar that was UNC. Boom, that was done and he was hired shortly thereafter at Maryland.
Marshall and Cronin (at least to me) don’t seem like the types that would have ever said that. Both have Napoleon syndromes and aren’t kissing the ground of anyone.
I also tend to agree with Roo’s assessment that contractually, we’ve got Gott a long time. Yow’s seemingly basically got him on a lifetime contract. It’s not quite as bad as that one Paul Hewitt has, but its an interesting approach for such a high risk candidate.
Rick: Good reply.
Mike: Wow, I don’t even know where to start. Let me address some of your points:
– Arch as a savior: I don’t think Arch is a savior. I think Arch’s success puts pressure on this situation. How long do you hang out knowing what is happening and miss on a potential special coach? The savior was his brother and Fowler @#$()*D that one up the first time and Arizona got smart after the tournament beat down over Duke (I firmly believe this was Yow’s #1 candidate initially, and she hinted as much in her press conference when firing Lowe). Arch wouldn’t actually be at the top of my list if we had an open position, but there’s a segment of the fan base that wants an alum for fear that a non-alum might leave us for bigger pastures (which by the way never happens).– Lunatic fringe: See Rick’s post above. See sports boards off of any team college or professional. If anything, NC State fans are way too patient. Every time a coach sucks, we trot out V references about never giving up. We gave HWSNBN 5 dead years and kept him a 6th due to a recruiting class. We gave Lowe way, way, way too long.
– K recently at Duke: Let me get this straight. Do you actually think we’d “run off” a coach who has his team solidly in the top 10, is the head coach for USA basketball, just pushed over 1000 wins, is an absolute institution, and who brings millions of dollars in value to the institution? Riiiiiiiiiiight…..
– The woe is us, no one wants to take this job line of BS. We’ve had two straight ADs mess up coaching searches in ways that are well detailed. That does not mean no one wanted the job. Both times there were plenty of people who wanted it. We just fumbled on the goal line.
– Recruiting: In case you haven’t noticed, we have zero recruits signed for next season. That issue started well before this horrendous 5-9 stretch of basketball. Message boards have nothing to do with that.
– You want continuity, prepare for it. Gott’s basically got a lifetime contract. I have scratched my head multiple times at some of Yow’s contract moves.
adventur: Respectfully, any comparison between Duke and UNC and what we have done and fan expectations is a complete joke. Doherty lost to HWSNBN a couple of times and they had him out so fast, it was amazing. And that was with him stacking up the talent that Roy used to win that first title.
I’m so tired of being told to “be patient” and K and Beamer trotted out as examples of rewarded patience. For every K and Beamer there are 100 that don’t pan out. It’s time for NC State to start being pragmatic. We’re in year 4. It’s four years of the same stuff. We got hot at the end of year 1. I think we’ve seen where this is going.
As for the schedule, it’s been tough, but part of it being tough is because we’ve lost the games. These strength of schedule numbers are effectively zero sum games. You win, your strength of schedule goes down because that team takes another loss. You win and the ripple effect that impacts the team you’ve played’s one and loss record also causes that to get lower (for any team with common opponents). Our strength of schedule is artificially inflated because we have lost 9 times.
Let’s look at this another way. We’re at the spot where we’ve losed to a mid-major (at home and at Reynolds), Clemson at home, blown huge leads consistently, lost to 3 out of 4 “name” teams non-conference that we’ve played (only win was against Tennessee) and been completely abused by any team that pressed us. Is that where NC State basketball should be? If this is the state in year 4, what’s coming that is going to change that?
Gott needs big talent to win. From what I can tell, we don’t have that walking through the door.
After the Sweet 16 run, we started the season #6. Then we got completely whacked by Oklahoma State and not long after were were out of the Top 25. We’ve not been back to my memory.
Was anyone really surprised by last night’s result? We’re in year four, and it’s clear what we’ve Gott.
There’s way, way more talent on this team than our record. I’ve seen a lot of mediocre to bad basketball over the last 20 years, and this team is among the NC State leaders for doing less with more. It’s up there with the Brown/CJL/Howell/Wood year and HWSNBN’s 5th season (Wilkins last year before Hodge).
Coming out flat, blowing leads, poor FT shooting (except for a guy named Scott Wood who single handedly raised our team’s percentage), weak with the ball against tough defense, poor defense and poor end of game strategy are consistent issues. At a certain point, if you rotate out the players and still see the same trends, it’s the coaching.
My question is how much longer it takes for this thing to unfold and what opportunities pass us by while it does. I fully suspect Gott to be back next year, but with the seat officially warm. The question to me is what happens to Archie/Smart/Marshall (which I think would have to be our top 3 targets).
The older I get, the less and less I like college basketball. “Inconsistent” officiating (or should I say consistently inconsistent?) is a large part of the reason.
I also dislike baseball? One of the largest reasons is due to the inconsistent strike zone.
When every single play of every single game largely depends on the whims of the official that day, it’s just not fun to watch.
Give me golf (mentioned above for reasons I agree with), football (those guys typically do a decent job and rarely do bad/missed penalties change the outcome of a game), volleyball or soccer any day. They’re just less frustrating to watch.
I think the right way to recruit in this day and age, if you are NC State (and really anyone who isn’t Kentucky, Duke, UNC, Kansas and maybe Arizona/UCLA) is to add 2-3 top 45-85 guys and try to pair him with one top line, top 30 player. That gives you continuity to build on with the 45-85 guys and one really special player that might tip you over the top.
Some of those guys won’t pan out, and some will transfer. Count on losing 1 player to attrition each year. That’s college basketball at this point.
We’re doing fine with the top 45-85 guys. The problems in talent are:
1) Cat’s not delivering to top 25 caliber.
2) Lacey’s the only other top 25 kid we have and he’s a junior.
3) Last year’s class did not deliver a top 25 kid.
4) Barring something unforeseen, this year’s class won’t deliver a top 25 kid.Other than Warren, under Gott, none of the top 25 kids have really panned out. Now, some of them were from Lowe and that’s fine, but it does create a ripple effect. If you’re a top 25 kid, who do we have to point to that broke through (other than Warren)? It makes it harder to get top 25 kids.
This staff does a lot of things right, and this is the best we’ve had since V. They seemingly don’t do a lot of the little things that put a team over the top well. Therefore they’ll have to recruit to tip them over the top. I’m not seeing the top line talent to do it.
I was on daddy duty and missed the game. Instead of staying up all night to watch it on tape delay, I read the post game results and score. It sounds like I’m glad I did.
Darn shame to let another one slip away. This team has had its chances, but just can’t close.
I’m very happy with recruiting this year. Finishing strong down the stretch, bowling down and winning our bowl game has given us a huge amount of momentum coming into the season. The narrative of 8-5, having won the last 3 is a lot stronger than 7-6 coming off of getting crushed in a bowl (like what happened to Louisville).
I’ll withhold all “Wildcat” comments at this point. It was thankfully ditched this past year and I hope we don’t see it return, unless one of these RBs can actually throw it.
Pros from last night:
– Cat’s withstraint. That was a mature response given the moment, adrenaline, etc..
– Abu’s offensive awakening.
– Some of the drive and “throw it up” plays for Abu/BJ.
– Washington stepping up when we definitely needed help.
– Effectiveness of the press.Bad from last night:
– End of game management
– Blowing the lead
– Not pressing early enough
– Horrific shooting
– FT disparity and all the factors that lead to it (officiating, offensive and defensive strategy, etc.)Overall:
– To be the type of program we as fans want, that’s a game you have to win.
– To get to the tournament this year, we have to beat Miami, Syracuse and Pitt. That’s who we’re fighting for a bid. Right now we’re 1-1. We have only 1 good win (Duke).
– Anti-chicken little talking points: Vegas had Miami as a 5 point favorite and they won by 5. Larranaga is a good coach and they were at home. ACC road wins are tough.
– I said prior to the Duke win, and after the Duke win, that I think we know what we’ve got in Gott. I didn’t expect to win last night and we didn’t. I didn’t expect us to beat UNC at home coming off of Duke, and we didn’t. That doesn’t mean that I think Gott should be fired. I just think the picture is pretty clear with him this far into year 4. He’s a better version of HWSNBN, but is that what we really want out of our program?
– Some of this is hard to stomach when I see Wichita State, VCU and Dayton ranked. I also think at least 2 of them would beat us head to head.
– I’m not convinced that NC State is willing to break the eggs needed to be a winner in basketball. This doesn’t mean cheating, but this means the PR risk that comes with making a bold move.red: At what point is it square peg/round hole with respect to Barber.
He reminds me a lot of Harrow. He was a great scorer in high school in a fast paced, open court offense. That doesn’t necessarily equate to a great point guard at the college level, particularly in the era of high major games being played in the 50s to low 70s.
It’s time to move him off the ball and see what he can do. It’s also time to be going heavily after PGs in recruiting.
I’m with you Wolfpackjack76. I don’t like some of the nicknames on here.
As for the Martins and the jersey joke, I think it’s already played out. I don’t need a jersey # to tell them apart. Their games are completely different, and their movements are actually different. Cody’s been coming on strong the last few games.
I couldn’t see the game due to a family emergency. I liked the results though. Congrats to the Pack!
How we play against UNC will tell us far more than beating Duke. For years we’ve had one nice home upset win and have never been able to follow up on it or build on it. We always think we’ve turned the corner, only to have reality stare us in the face.
We really need to beat UNC on Wednesday. If we could go 2 out of 3 with this stretch, and get to 4-1 in the ACC, then we’d be in good shape with two top line wins. Lose to UNC and the discussion changes to us pulling an upset against Duke.
Thinkpack: Respectfully, like CowDog, I was one that had Tony Bennett flagged early as a clear winner. If you can win at Washington State, you can win ANYWHERE. It’s one of the worst power conference jobs, and there are many, many mid-major jobs that are better. Bennett had that team in the top 10 and he won national coach of the year before he left.
I was surprised a bigger program that UVA didn’t pick up Bennett. UVA is probably one of the worst jobs in the ACC.
Bennett built that Washington State team the exact same way he has built up UVA. It’s methodical, defense based, with a clear upward trajectory. He also attracted better and better players, which he is doing at UVA.
UVA is going to be a winner as long as he’s there. They may not be top 5 or top 10 (I think like Wisconsin they’re over rated), but you can pencil them in the top 20. We should only be so lucky.
Why are people mad about losing to UVA? They’d basically floundered around for 15+ years since the early tenure of Jeff Jones. They never settled for mediocrity though, and even got themselves out of an awful contract situation in Gillian (much like we’re in now with Gott). Now they have the right coach and have blown right past us.
We’ve got HWSNBN v2. UVA’s ascent has happened under this staff’s watch. Last night’s game was never in doubt. They’re ranked in the top 3. We’ve not beaten a top 3 team since 2005. It’s pretty obvious to me why the natives are restless.
The question I have is whether it’s obvious to Yow, Gott, big donors, etc.. I wonder if the finger is on the pulse well enough to recognize what’s happening.
Wolfpackrox: The replacement WR coach started the year as the OC for Syracuse and was demoted mid-season. He wanted out.
Now that doesn’t explain taking a lateral position. More running from something than to something.
Pros are recruiting and the fact that he has an interest in up tempo styles. That’s what he brought to Syracuse, but I didn’t follow them closely enough to know why it didn’t work.
The most interesting part of this whole thing to me is that this was coach #2 fired in two years by DD, and both of them were on his staff at Northern…..
The effort was much, much better today. It manifested itself in better half court defense but it was running the court, getting steals, getting the 50/50 balls, etc..
Good game by the team today. Still some glaring issues.
Nice performance in a must win game. Good job to everyone involved with the program — coaches, players, support staff, etc..
This was a well officiated game as well. The refs really didn’t impact the game at all.
There are a lot of good thoughts in here. Let me pull together some quick points that are pulled from a lot of different posts that I won’t quote.
– Team Chemistry: It’s obvious we’ve got problems this year. It’s the third year in a row. Really, the only year we didn’t was when we had two selfless senior leaders and a brand new head coach (which creates more likeliness to buy in). While a leader doesn’t create chemistry, he tolerates a lack of it and lets it fester. We had chemistry issues under Lowe as well, and let’s be honest, he was a poor leader. I think only once in 20 years have I heard of chemistry issues of a K coached Duke team. Think Tony Bennett’s squads have chemistry problems?
– How to actually improve this year’s squad: We struggle so mightily in the half court on offense, that we really need to get out on the break. This was predictable, and I’d said before the season started that this is where we’d miss Warren the most (well, this and end of game situations). Who was going to go score with the shot clock winding down? Our strength this year is depth. Press and go ten deep. I suspect it will also fix the chemistry problems. I’m a huge fan of zones, particularly at the college level. If you’ve got to play a half court set, put us in a 2-1-2 or 2-3 and put Anya in the middle. That’s going to be one long zone. If someone starts lighting it up, play a box and one and put Cat on the one. This game isn’t that hard. That’s at most 3 things to practice.
– Because I believe I know where this is headed = I want to fire Gott: Let me make this clear. I don’t want to fire Gott. This is the best we’ve had it since V. I wasn’t a fan of the hire initially, but wanted it to work out and hoped with Lutz we’d have a better shot. I’ve always argued that you’ve got to dance every year before you can make the next step. It’s also pretty clear to me where this is ultimately going to end up though. We’re not improving. I have no clue where recruiting is going to end up this year, but it’s not looking good. We’re on the bubble at best barring something unforeseen in ACC play. Our momentum as a program is gone, as is Gott’s best recruiting class. We’re treading water.
– Cat vs Leslie at the point: It really doesn’t matter. We have two combo guards and no point guards. We either have to get out on the break and just let these guys score, or one of them has to “transport the basketball” and get us into our set. Forcing Cat to try and be a point really takes away from what he does best. He wasn’t a McDonald’s AA because he could pass. He was a McDonald’s AA because he broke all of Iverson’s scoring records.
– Expectations of a football coach vs a basketball coach at NC State: Let’s be honest, NC State football vs. NC State basketball are two entirely different animals. We’re a .500 football team in a basketball conference, with mid rate facilities among Power 5 schools, are in a state with way too many D1 programs relative to the talent level and typically have a very small budget. In basketball, we’re a basketball school, in a basketball league, that has won two national titles, has top notch facilities, has a top 15 valued brand and a big budget. The expectations of performance of our coaches must be analyzed against the larger backdrop. Yes, I understand that football is king for revenue, but the football coach at NC State is going to get a lot more leeway than the basketball coach. It comes with the gig.
– Gott’s track record: He’s trending at State to about what he did at Alabama. He’s got more built in advantages here, but he’s got a much tougher neighborhood as well. We’re in year 4. I think we see the type of program he can build here. The question to me is whether that is good enough.
– The Arch effect: Put me in the camp that Arch as a new coach at NC State would have been a complete disaster. He needed to go and season, and I’m frankly surprised that he got a gig as good as Dayton to do it at. If he keeps winning though, he’s really our best best for what this fan base really wants — a coach that might be able to break through and one that will stay here if he does. If he puts Dayton back in the Sweet 16 this year or next, then it’s going to force some tough decisions. Duke keeps sending K’s disciples out to try to find one to assume the throne. Ironically, Arch may prove to be better than any of them, and at a much less favorable gig (i.e. Dayton vs. Seton Hall, Mizzou, Stanford or Marquette).
– DD threads from earlier in the year: My position on DD this year was that he was not in any threat to be fired because of the bigger picture. The coordinators were in big trouble though if they didn’t change things up. I ranted on the Wildcat, the lack of an actual running game initiated from a balanced set, and the lack of pressure on defense. Those three things changed right as we hit the light part of the schedule. We finished strong and most fans are happy. Did we finish strong because of weak opponents or was it more because we fixed what tactically ailed us? The UCF game was promising because that was our best win of the year.
– Whether DD will actually work out at NC State: I think he’s got the best shot since Sheridan. By working out, I don’t mean that I see us competing for conference titles year in and year out. I mean making us bowl eligible year in and year out, steadily building towards 9-3 type of years where we might break through one year if everything breaks our way and running a clean program.
– The bigger picture on DD: Many fans are tickled pink over the UNC and bowl wins, but I am afraid the verdict is still out. We fired TOB, Amato and MOC for going 22-26, 25-31 and 26-30 in conference. That’s a combined .456 in conference and all three were deemed unacceptable and shown the door. DD is currently 3-13. To even match TOB’s .458, DD is going to have to go 19-13 over the next 32 conference games. That doesn’t sound so tough, until you break it out by the years. That means we can have one 4-4 year and then have to have 3 5-3 years. MOC, TOB and Amato combined only had 4 seasons of 5-3 or better, and none of them had to play FSU, Clemson and Louisville every single season. It’s an uphill road for DD just to get to where we’ve trended at over the last 20 years. Granted, given the 0-8 free pass in year one, if DD actually was sitting at .458 by the end of year 6, we’d probably build a statue for him.
