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Pack1997: Just read your comment about Brian Gregory and I don’t agree with them. Gregory inherited a good Dayton program from Purnell. He took Purnell’s players and went back to the tournament in year one. After that, in seven more years, he went exactly one time. If Arch were inheriting a great program, wouldn’t they have been coming off of some tournament bids?
One good way to measure a mid-major coach is to look at their wins in conference. This reflects how they do against peer programs that typically have similar resources. Arch’s in conference wins have gone 9, 7, 10, 13. Gregory’s went 12, 10, 6 in his first three seasons.
Gregory’s tenure had a general downward trajectory including a losing record in conference the year he was hired by GT. I always thought GT made a really poor hire there.
Gregory was arguably the worst coach at Dayton in my lifetime. As it will stand at the end of this year, Arch will likely have done the second most of any coach at Dayton in my lifetime.
BJD: Bummer.
Pack1997: Since Dayton joined the A10 in 1995, they’ve been to the tournament 6 total times. Two of those were in the last two years by Arch. He’s well on his way to a 3rd straight berth.
Prior to Arch’s NCAA tournament birth in 2014, they’d been on a 5 year drought (2009) and their last trip prior was was 5 years prior. The last time they went back to back was 2003 and 2004. The last time they made 3 straight trips was 1965-1967.
Arch took Dayton to the Elite 8. The last time they went to the Elite 8 was 1984.
His win totals have gone from 20, 17, 26 and 27. He may hit 27+ again this year. That looks like it is trending up.
He’s got his team in the top 25. He’s got wins this year over Alabama (by 32), W&M (that same team we lost to), Iowa, Monmouth (who has been a giant killer), Vandy and Arkansas.
He’s doing all of this with 3 star level talent. Given this is his 5th season, these are all his players, so he’s recruited, retained players and developed them.
That sure looks like a guy that can coach ’em up to me. I’d like to see what he could do with NC State’s resources and instant ability to recruit.
BJD: I’m more positive than you. Why else would he turn down Florida? You have it all there — SEC $$$, platform from which it has been proven twice in the last 10-15 years that you can win a title, look at his record against the SEC (so he’s obviously not worried about playing in that league), etc.. Maybe I’ve just got too much V in me, but I’ve not given up hope on that one and the fact that he’s not at Florida right now helps me hold out that hope.
Of course, to your point, I highly doubt he’s coming here to work for Yow. I’ve read the same stuff as Rick (and had heard some things when we made our hire of Gott). That’s why those juiced need to be working now.
BJD: We posted about the same time, but you and I see eye to eye on this one. Yow’s hitched her wagon to DD and Gott. She’s not firing either, particularly not Gott. She really can’t fire Gott given all the mess ups (publicly and privately) with her last bball search. I don’t want her hiring another men’s basketball coach either. If this year tanks and the real power brokers think that a change is inevitable, then they’ll need to move on her first.
I have a feeling that this season will be viewed as an aberration and that there will be a lot of hope about next year. We saw that save HWSNBN several times. You’ll see the staunch defenders coming out of the woodwork saying that Gott “deserves the chance to coach the #1 PG, which he recruited.” I think DSJ, Dorn and TH will be good enough to get us back in the tournament, so the whole thing will be viewed as “one bad year because Lacey left early and TH got hurt.”
I just think that’s really the likely plateau for this staff. They can get hot tournament time and maybe win a few games, but they’re not going to build this into a program consistently in the Top 25 all year. That’s the next step, and that’s the step that will be required to get the appropriate exposure and talent needed to push us over the top.
All the while, Arch will eventually get tired of waiting and take a high major job elsewhere. All it will take is one more tournament run (which they look poised to make this year), and he’s not going to be at Dayton. He’ll have guided the best 5 year tenure in the last 20-30 years for them. No way he’s sitting around turning down offers waiting for us to get rid of Yow and Gott. Florida was already really close to breaking our hearts last year:
http://www.bizjournals.com/dayton/news/2015/05/08/what-florida-not-hiring-uds-archie-miller-for.htmlAnyone with any juice in the Wolfpack Club ought to be making a lot of noise right now — and not about football. We’ve got a small window to get this done and get Archie in here.
If we go get two to three serviceable big men, next year is shaping up to what *should* be a decent year. We’ll have DSJ replacing Cat, TH back, Dorn ready to go and hopefully enough big men to be able to go 2 deep and play 4. If that team can’t be a top 25 type of team and solidly on the positive side of the bubble, then maybe Gott will get some heat.
Until then, I suspect he’s getting a free pass from Yow. She seemingly likes him personally. They share the agent. There was “the letter” that showed us just how bad her basketball coaching search was (and thus likely not something she wants to repeat). There is the TH injury to help make for a convenient excuse. TL is harder to excuse because the staff wouldn’t have Rowan if not for Lacey’s departure.
There’s enough there along with the extensions and the two Sweet 16s to get a free pass this year. It’s not a mulligan, but it’s highly unreasonable to think any real pressure will come to the basketball coach the first time he misses the NCAAs after the previous four years. Yow really can’t do anything other than give Gott a long leash because of how the last search went, and the stuff with GW. If she’s trigger happy with Gott, then no good coach in their right mind would walk into that situation while she’s still there.
To 92owen’s point though, I don’t have a ton of faith that Gott’s the guy that is ever going to break through at NC State. Am I pleasantly surprised and appreciative about the results thus far? Yep. I think we’ve seen about the ceiling though (maybe an Elite 8 run in there). There’s nothing that I’m seeing that suggests we’d ever win a conference or national title. I think it will eventually get to a HWSNBN type discussion of just how much is good enough.
I’m just more saddened by the Miller brothers. Sean seemingly wanted the job when we hired Lowe but Fowler wouldn’t do it. Now he’s on a roll at Arizona. Arch wanted it when we hire Gott, has done well at Dayton and will probably be hired this year or next by a high major. In fairness to Yow, I didn’t think Arch was seasoned enough at our last hire, but it is going to be a shame to watch him tear it up at another high major that is not NC State because of bad timing.
– I think apathy is starting to set in with the fanbase. I think most know “what we’ve Gott.”
– I argued the “future revenues from more ticket sales” model was a complete joke when it was trotted out 4 years ago.
– This team isn’t that good, but it’s probably more competitive than half of Lowe’s teams. Gott isn’t an awful coach like some are making him out to be.
– The roster issues are solely with the coaching staff. They’ve chosen not to use the full scholarship allotment and have had issues with player retention (particularly of contributors, not the guy at the end of the bench).
– Don’t insult the players.
– Cat’s gone at the end of the season. No way we sign DSJ if he didn’t know he was walking in to completely run the show.
– We’ll see another leave prematurely I believe. I suspect Abu is gone as well.
– The thing about the Martins is that they’re seemingly a package. For them to transfer, some school would have to be willing to take both. I always thought we were one of the few high majors willing to do that the first time.
– We shouldn’t have given the raise and extensions. A coach like Gott should be on a rolling year over year contract that is heavily incentive based.
– The timing of Gott, Yow and DD’s contracts line up too close for comfort.
– I’m trying to accept that Archie will never be the head man at NC State.Quick thoughts:
– I think apathy is starting to set in with the fanbase. I think most know “what we’ve Gott.”
– I argued the “future revenues from more ticket sales” model was a complete joke when it was trotted out 4 years ago.
– This team isn’t that good, but it’s probably more competitive than half of Lowe’s teams. Gott isn’t an awful coach like some are making him out to be.
– The roster issues are solely with the coaching staff. They’ve chosen not to use the full scholarship allotment and have had issues with player retention (particularly of contributors, not the guy at the end of the bench).
– Don’t insult the players.
– Cat’s gone at the end of the season. No way we sign DSJ if he didn’t know he was walking in to completely run the show.
– We’ll see another leave prematurely I believe. I suspect Abu is gone as well.
– The thing about the Martins is that they’re seemingly a package. For them to transfer, some school would have to be willing to take both. I always thought we were one of the few high majors willing to do that the first time.
– We shouldn’t have given the raise and extensions. A coach like Gott should be on a rolling year over year contract that is heavily incentive based.
– The timing of Gott, Yow and DD’s contracts line up too close for comfort.
– I’m trying to accept that Archie will never be the head man at NC State.ChiefJoJo: I agree and disagree with respect to facilities and spending levels. I agree that we don’t have top flight facilities or spending levels, therefore it is not necessarily fair for fans to expect conference championships. I do think we have mid-tier facilities and spending and should expect mid-tier results (which would clearly be behind FSU and Clemson and likely behind Louisville).
I’ve argued for years that the level of investment to get us competitive with respect to facilities and budget in football is so large that it’s almost foolish to try to compete at a national level. We’re much closer in basketball and thus that’s where the attention and money should go (to push us over the top). That’s another thread though.
Having said that, to get the indoor practice facility, fund the extensions/raises and then to fund the buy outs, I’m sure promises were made. With that spending comes raised expectations — fair or unfair. I’ve never seen otherwise in business in any performance oriented organization. If you have done more with less historically, great, but if we give you more money you’d better be able to do even more relative to the spending level. That money cuts both ways.
Let’s look at it another way. If we were happy with 6-6 or 7-5 and 3-5 to 4-4 in conference, we could have kept TOB, had no indoor practice facility, and spent a lot less money. That wasn’t good enough at the cheaper spending level, so why would it be now after more investment? Yes, I get that others are investing more as well, but I’m just arguing the ROI.
With that in mind, DD is going to have to start winning 40-50% of the games against the mid-tier teams as well as just not laying eggs against the cupcakes. A special season (for NC State) would be if he paired that with an upset (or two) against the higher programs.
Maybe we should have run JB less and thrown to the TE more? Maybe we should have thrown to fewer receivers and targeted the TE more?
JSam may have been listed as a TE, but I suspect that was on paper only due to the logjam at RB. We seemingly lined him up out of the backfield or slot most of the time.
I agree with theCowDog that we made progress against the cupcakes. There were no losses to teams not in a bowl. We made it to 7-5 and made a bowl.
The problem is that ~ 85 teams make bowls now. Teams with losing records make bowls. A bowl is a fairly low bar.
We also sit in a division with FSU, Clemson and Louisville. The Coastal just got tougher with the addition of Richt and Mendenhall as coaches. For us to get more wins and move up the pecking order, these are the teams we’re going to have to be able to beat.
I’d agree with the original premise of this post. I don’t care what changes get made, if we don’t start beating some decent teams, DD’s tenure will be a short one. Feasting on cupcakes and going to toilet bowls isn’t going to cut it given the massive influx of cash into the football program (facilities, salaries and buy outs).
Buzz is a solid coach. VT definitely upgraded. Hopefully that VT loss doesn’t turn out to be a bad one.
Tau: I have a feeling we may see a change in the recruiting coach. Zero insider information here, but there have been health issues, and what seem to be signs of stress related fatigue. Though, I don’t think that’s going to change scholarship allocation. That would seemingly be the choice of the head man.
foose: No worries. Some things we’ll agree on, some we won’t. It really doesn’t matter on some of it.
It’s sort of like TOB/PJ. I wanted PJ when we hired TOB and didn’t want any part of TOB. The entire time we had TOB, I always compared PJ’s results to his because those were our choices at the time. Once we were done with TOB, then the PJ thing kind of ended in my mind because that chapter was past. It’s the same with Canada. He’s gone now, and so be it. He did some things well, and some things poorly.
I agree that I liked the emphasis on running. I hope we can continue with that. I believe offenses have to have be able to run in order to throw and that a defense needs an offense to be able to run the ball to protect the lead, rest them, and ultimately keep points off the board.
I just hope our ability to run the ball didn’t walk out the door with the OL coach. I thought that was drastically improved, all things considered.
TheAliasTroll: I think you’d probably be firing the head coach at that point…………..
Now, that’s not to say that we won’t fire Hux……
I think that we’re in agreement.
The quantity of wins needed are probably more than this team can get. I’d love to be pleasantly surprised though.
The VPI loss hurt badly. It was a loss against a similar bottom half team. It was a miss at a chance at a road win (which helps the RPI).
But you won’t make the NCAAT just by playing in a tough conference. What matters is WHO you beat…and a team that lost to Bill & Mary along with a weak VT team isn’t likely to care much about SOS, conference SOS, or pretty much anything else come March.
I’d agree with the second part. The discussion for this NC State team is probably moot anyways.
On the former though, it’s hard to beat good teams when the conference is weak. Being RPI #4 (as of today), isn’t going to help our bubble teams on Selection Sunday. They’ll have fewer opportunities for quality wins (particularly on the road), and more opportunities for a bad loss.
The bigger point I’ve been driving at for years is the mentality that non-conference doesn’t matter. I’m so sick of watching fans say “all I care about is how NC State performs.” That’s just wrong. It’s not like us pulling for other teams non-conference makes any difference, but if we’re out there educating about what gets one into the tournament, it is important to understand how critical the non-conference is.
While VaWolf nails that the unbalanced schedule means it is more about who you play in your 18 games, I don’t agree with the premise that conference RPI doesn’t matter. It matters because it talks about the collective strength of schedule of the conference play, the ability for a conference win to be a good win, and the ability for a conference loss to become a bad one.
I’ve been one raising concerns that we’re in big, big trouble and conference RPI is part of the reason why. The reason that I say this was on display in the road loss at VPI. VPI was 151 in the RPI. As they take more losses and trend towards the bottom of the league, that will quite possibly become a bad loss (200+ RPI). Conversely had we beaten them, it wouldn’t have been all that great of a win either (other than the fact that it was on the road).
A lot of our fans are seemingly blindly holding out hope that a late run gets us in. At this point we’re just about behind the 8 ball barring something unforeseen (like a string of wins against the top 6). We’d possibly have to win the ACC tournament. That’s a very tall order for a good team given the bye that the top 4 teams get. Given the gaps I see in what we’re currently putting on the court, it’d be a Herculean effort by all involved to get us there in the next 8 weeks.
With respect to Rowan, let’s drop the “supposed to be in high school” and “wasn’t expected to play” lines. He’s 19.5 years old right now which is only 6 months younger than Freeman (who is a junior). That excuse works with Freeman who really was young. It doesn’t with Rowan (who was going to be 20.5 as a freshman if he’d not reclassified).
Rowan picked us over Louisville because he was going to get major minutes. There was immediate playing time (starters minutes and shots). Had he felt he wasn’t ready, he’d have gone to Louisville and worked in more slowly. He came right out of the gate gunning from day one, so there’s no lack of confidence with him.
His dad also played high level college ball, and played a lot of ball overseas. He has presumably had a lot of help along the way from his dad and from a very early age. He’s not a raw kid like a Tim Duncan who is just picking up a basketball. He has a fairly complete game as a freshman. I think we’re seeing a kid playing at least at the level of a normal sophomore.
Don’t get me wrong. I like Rowan, but we need to be real about this one. I feel the same way about the RPI discussion.
I’m not sold on Danny Manning’s coaching, though I think he’s a heck of a recruiter. He’s also riding that new coach momentum.
No comments on the loss to VT………. I think I know “what we’ve Gott” this year.
Gott will be here for quite some time. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some shake up in assistants though.
thecowdog: Not sure if Foose “set me straight” regarding Canada. I’d agree with you that Alvarez made a run at DD and Canada, but that was seemingly after they were under contract. It was one of his many seemingly bizarre moves as AD.
I don’t agree though that he loved Canada. He’d have already locked him up, or let him coach that bowl game. It doesn’t really matter though. Neither of us really know what Alvarez thought of Canada at the time, nor is it pertinent to what happened with Canada at NC State.
I think we have differing opinions on whether he was a good hire initially. And really, those are opinions about something that happened 3 years ago, and our thoughts about it at the time. I think a search would suggest I raised concerns then, but it doesn’t really matter.
The seemingly pertinent thing to Wisconsin is that the QB slot was a mess, and there was a personality issue between the OC and the head coach. When we look at the last few years, our QB spot has been a mess (outside of about 6-8 games by JB), we’ve not really brought along a replacement (which had led me to believe that the replacement must have been running the scout team), and now we’re hearing rumblings about friction between DD and Canada.
What matters more is what we’ve seen over the last 3 years. Do you have disagreement with the list of gaps that I’d highlighted? Do you agree that we did less with more on offense, particularly in those winnable swing games?
The program may or may not be better with Canada gone. A lot of that depends on who gets hired and how much the philosophy switches. I expect to see up tempo, spread, read option with a running QB. That’s seemingly what we’ve recruited to and would line up with what DD did at NIU. I’m willing to chance it though because something needed to happen. I think we’d seen the pros and cons of the Canada offense with this level of personnel in the ACC.
For the record, I don’t think Hux is safe. To me the conversations are different and separate. They’re also influenced by talent level, the level of collaboration and input from the head coach in the prep and the product and how well DD feels he can work with that coordinator. DD may look in the mirror a bit more on that side of the ball. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a more conventional 4-3 next year with more blitzing and a bit softer coverage behind regardless of who is calling the plays.
Outside of the place kicking this year, the WTF time out calls, and the rogue fake punt against UNC, I’ve thought special teams were a bright spot for this team. I do think the coverage has been good. We’d not given up many long returns since DD has been here. While we’re not blocking many kicks, we’re also not doing dumb things like roughing the kicker (well, other than that BS penalty in the bowl game).
Wow, I guess the way this is coming out is saying something — and sadly lots of things……….
Chop: The former Syracuse coach is the WR coach we hired last year. Kitchings is the RB coach.
Foose: Sorry but I’m not making stuff up. Maybe the memory is a little fuzzy on the timing, but there was a LOT of friction between Canada and Bielema. Now I have no doubt that Bielema was a jerk, but the fact that there was a documented power struggle meant that both sides participated.
Also, does it really make sense that a rogue OL coach wrecked the OL without the OC knowing it? The OC is working with the OL coach closely and blocking scheme has to be a part of that. The OL coach got it, but after that OL coaching change, Wisonsin went back to a power running style, rallied and turned it around.
The bigger issue that year wasn’t wiith the OL. It was good enough for Ball to put up ridiculous numbers (in spite of control freak, conservative Bielema). It was with QB. They played 3 different ones with each seeing action in 7+ games. Hmmmm, spotty QB play and management sound familiar?
That 70pt game was a bit of Fool’s Gold because they introduced the jet sweep stuff in that game, catching the other team off guard. Maybe that was the genius of Canada and Beilema giving him back some control, but Beilema left 3 days later. Alvarez coached the bowl game. Now Alvarez has a huge ego and maybe wanted one more rodeo, but it could also show you how much faith he had in Canada. Regardless Alvarez didn’t exactly lock him up after coaching with him prepping for the bowl….
I have a close friend who is really into Wisconsin, (like at a lot of the games despite living in NC, is a message board junkie, etc.). He’s not the type who hates all the coordinators, or OCs, but he told me that when we hired Canada, it was a really bad move.
Go back and search my posts and I’ve voiced consistent concerns about Canada. In contrast I actually thought Hux was a decent hire. I thought he might be a goner because changes have to be made and he’s an easy scapegoat, but I think our issues there are as much related to talent as scheme. We did far less with more on offense than on defense. Also, i can’t help but think that DD is much more involved on the defensive side of the ball, and thus the product there reflects as much (or more) on him as Hux.
Hmmm… I’m of two bi-polar thoughts on this one:
-> Pro:
This was a bad hire to start with. If you’ve followed Canada’s previous stops you know that he is one of the reasons (along with the AD) that Bielema is down at Arkansas. He was also so bad that the OL coach got fired about four games through the season as the fall guy (presumably because he was cheaper) and I believe that he may have gotten his play calling duties yanked as well. So, anyone doing a background check during the hiring process should have turned up enough red flags not to hire this guy.Then there were the much discussed issues:
– QB development or lack thereof
– Not utilizing talent properly
– Sherriffs and that wildcat garbage (he’s done okay at UConn)
– Predictability of the snap based on the jet sweep motion timing.
– Being so multiple in formation (but with only 1-2 plays out of certain alignments and motions) that the pre snap formation and motion basically telegraphed the play.
– Forcing balance in a way that reminded me of MOC. We may have lost by two TDs, but we were super balanced! Ugh…
– Lack of halftime adjustments on offense. When we played anyone good they adjusted at halftime and seemingly completely shut us down.
– Lack of urgency in the play calling when down multiple scores.
– Lack of killer instinct when up multiple scores.
So, for all these reasons this is probably a good move for the program.-> Cons:
– Hiring this guy in the first place
– Just extending the contract and giving him a raise in the last offseason. Surely DD went to bat for this guy 12 months ago and now he’s the #1 thing that needs to be changed?
– How the heck does Yow spin this one? She approved/pushed through the raise/extension. Now she’s going to pay him a buyout?
– That gopack.com fluffer piece from the last couple of days that basically said all hope for next year was based on the offense. They put that out knowing they were about to fire him? The glaring omission of anything related to the defense in that article reinforced that Hux is a dead man walking, but this move makes that article baffling.
– What caliber of OC is going to come into this situation if fully informed?So, overall probably the right move, but a lot of red flags. I was hoping we’d let him go to Tenn last year. I was also hoping ECU would have hired him. Alas neither ideal situation happened and now we owe him a buyout.
I suspect we will promote from within and I suspect the guy is either the WR coach or Kitchings. The former was OC at Syracuse and left to come here in what was effectively a demotion. I felt when we made that hire that we were bringing in a second OC and hedging on Canada leaving. He was an uptempo spread guy at Syracuse and that’s what DD seemingly wants. There’s also seemingly been some bad blood with Syracuse over him and the fact that he’s not been doing play calling. I don’t quite know the ins and outs of that one. So, it looks like the WR coach, but if I were promoting from within, I’d probably go with Kitchings. He seems like the best coach we have on staff, the best recruiter (only position we really have developed any depth), and was the “running game coordinator” (whatever that means). Throw him a bone and keep him happy.
The OL coach departing is probably a bigger deal. I actually thought the line played fairly well. There’s no way we could have run for that type of yardage given how telegraphed a lot of the runs were without having a good line. I also thought a lot of the time JB had good protection. He may not have utilized that time well, but it was there.
Packalum: what you are describing is more what Turg has done at Maryland. Look at the first four years and we’ve had much better results.
Yes MD is highly ranked right now. That is due to recruiting and taking some questionable transfers. I’m not convinced they’ll do much in the tournament with them, but I could be wrong.
If we missed on coaches in that last search they were Marshall, Smart and Arch. It wasn’t the Turg.
Wulfpack: you are right in a way, but also kind of missing the point. The ACC right now is a 6-7 bid League. With the consolidation of the power conferences, the bids have to go somewhere.
There are some problems with thaf though. Six to seven bids isn’t really that many when you think about the fact that we have 15 teams in this league, and that the 15 were the 9 team ACC (ehic sometimes got 5 on its own) and about 1/2 of the top of the Big East (which once got 11 teams). There are a lot of historically name programs that are going to get left out.
Then look at where those bids are going. Right now UVA, UNC, Miami, Putt, Duke and Louisville are in. There’s maybe one to two more bids for the rest of the league. That is where the RPI clearly matters and the league’s unbalanced schedule hurts the ability to make it up.
It is extremely tough sledding for NC State at this point. Fans expecting a late run and 9-9 getting in are probably setting themselves up for disappointment.
13OT: I don’t agree with respect to the shot clock. The college game has gotten worse and worse over the past 15 years, but the shot clock shortening was a good thing. They should take it even lower to 24.
The vast majority of teams only run 8-12 seconds of real offense. The rest of it was just burning the clock by passing around the wing (with no actual intent to score) or walking the ball up. The game was awful when you watched a team like UVA milk the clock from the initial tip. It was just brutal.
If you want to lament changes, I’d be all for complaints regarding the lack of the 5 second closely guarded call, the degradation of fundamentals, the uncalled travels, the inability of most players to make a mid-range shot, the hand checking, the one and done (let it be a free market), the monopoly that ESPN has on the coverage, etc.. I just don’t agree regarding the shot clock.
We just need to adapt. Ever since HWSNBN, we’ve been slower than average in pace. Given we are a high major that typically pulls in a top 25 class year over year, we should be forcing tempo.
Getting this NC State squad into the dance will be a difficult challenge. We’re just not very good.
We’re poorly positioned coming into league play. We’re currently 101 in the RPI with the 162nd ranked SOS. We really have no strong non-conference wins to hang our hat on and a middling 2-2 against Power 5 conference opponents.
What’s worse is that league play isn’t going to bail us out. The ACC is currently the #5 ranked conference in the RPI. The only Power 5 conference lower is the Big 10, who beat us in the Challenge.
To get to the tournament this year, the team would need to go 10-8, and notch 2 wins against the top 6 (UVA, UNC, Miami, Pitt, Louisville and Duke). Because of the league’s poor RPI, we’d probably need two wins in the ACC tournament (another one late against one of those top 6 teams). That’s a tall order for this squad.
I’m not counting them out, but they’re behind the 8 ball. I hope that they collectively understand this.
