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Bill: I hate to say it but in the big money world of major college sports, all that matters are the numbers, and the only numbers that matter are the records. Sure some other stuff can get you fired if you’ve got an okay record, but none of those other things keep you retained if you aren’t winning. Winning even covers egregious sins, like we see with Ole Roy.
The 11 years at Alabama are not to be ignored. They supposedly have lower standards in basketball than we do and care less about it, yet they fired an alum for the exact numbers that many defend here. If anything it looks like Alabama runs more of a performance oriented program than we do.
My biggest problem with the Gott hire was that it was going to inevitably end up here. He was the second five years of HWSNBN. I was hoping like crazy to be wrong, but the signs were there in year 2. Ever since then it’s just been more people taking notice, and the fan base getting more devided. It’s a real shame.
FWIW, I felt the same about the TOB hire. I knew that one was going to be divisive. There was no other end result given Fowler was running the search. It’s funny that in a sport where we have far less history, built in competitive advantage and relative resources, we hold that coach to a much higher standard.
This discussion really just comes down to the overall record and the program trends. The overall record (.616) and conference winning percentages (.505) for Gott are nearly identical between his 11 years at Alabama and his 4+ at NC State. At a certain point you are your record in this business.
The question is whether that is good enough. I tend to think a lot of it comes back to one’s individual expectations for the program.
Really though it doesn’t matter what any of our expectations are. It matters what the powers that be think. What baffles me is that given Yow’s stated objectives for the programs (top 25s, championships, and high level recruiting), and her handling of some of the other coaches, how Gott is so untouchable. I wonder what the big money donors think.
I wouldn’t bring “character” up in this discussion at all. College basketball is s dirty, dirty, dirty business. Ask yourself this, are Pitino, Roy, Boeheim, Dean or K high character individuals that you’d hope your children grew up modeling behavior after? I’d hope the answer is no, yet all are Hall of Famers.
Please don’t construe this as support for an “if you’re no cheating you aren’t winning” argument. It’s not that. It’s just that success in this business has seemingly no linkage to “character,” so let’s not bring that into the discussion.
Aeight: If that was the plan, then the staff wasn’t paying attention. It was obvious that Washington was gone when they sent him to the bench down the stretch last year. They reaped what they sowed on that one.
Lacey probably surprised them. They also got Rowan because Lacey was gone. Was it a good trade? Not in year one, but Rowan wouldn’t be here if Lacey were here. He was promised a lot of minutes early, which is why he picked State over Louisville after Louisville did the work to reclassify him. He’s also an older freshman (6 months younger than junior Freeman). There’d be no Rowan had Lacey not announced.
Henderson’s injury has definitely hurt us. No question about that. He wasn’t fixing the issues with the big men, the lack of fundamentals, the poor shots the offense generates, the lack of defense. Would we have been better? Yep. Maybe even 1-2 non-conference and 3 or so conference wins better. That’s still on the bubble at best.
The question to me is whether this staff can ever get over the hump. I personally don’t think so. For reference, check out Gott’s high major record:
– Alabama, 11 years, .616 overall winning percentage, .503 in conference
– NC State, 5 years, .617 overall winning percentage (as of last night), .506 in conference
Eerily similar huh? At a certain point, you are what your record reflects, and there’s 16 years of track record here saying that’s what this guy is.How could we ever hope to compete with Virginia? They hired a national Coach of the Year who recruits to his system, develops and retains players and whose team plays defense, values the ball and takes good shot?
But yeah, Henderson was what separated us tonight……….
Any win at this point is a good one. I hope we can go on a little streak and avoid the “first round” of the ACC tournament.
I have problems with Yow in the non-revenue sports. We’re seeing those Sears Cup improvements in large part due to the non-revenue sports. Really to do that though, that’s where the most strides can be made, and is probably how I’d go about it if in her shoes.
Football has been mixed but she took a bet that given our place in the pecking order was fine. I understand wanting to let that one run some. I didn’t understand the quick renewal/extensions for the coordinators, but maybe DD pushed her on that one.
It’s men’s basketball and the Reynolds project that I don’t understand. The former we’ve discussed ad naseum. The latter is because we’re spending on a project that will result in a facility that would never allow men’s basketball to return to campus if needed while hearing there’s no space on Centennial either. We’re building a trophy case for 30+ year old trophies with no sign on the horizon of any meaningful new ones. It’s a head scratcher.
I think the podcast guys have a decent finger on the pulse of the fanbase. Gott’s results have been mediocre. Basketball should be held to a higher standard than football at NC State. There are trends that transcend the players on the roster and those trends stop this staff from taking the next step (top 25).
I’d guess my biggest issue with that podcast was saying that HWSNBN had that “success” his “first four years.” They’ve seemingly forgotten the 5 horrible years prior to that. The fact that Gott did it his actual first four years is why I think people are satisfied and willing to give a free pass for this year.
The last two basketball coaches were poorly run but in different ways. Fowler’s was too public and he was too incompetent. Sid kind of bailed him out, but NC State also bailed Sid out. Prior to that search many of us said that Fowler had to go before HWSNBN. Turns out we were right.
I think Yow thought she had Smart locked up, he backed out at the last second, but she’d already burnt the bridges with the other candidates (all the candidates “pulling out of consideration” publicly right before the email went out). It was all in the email — almost panic and starting back at ground zero. The Gott thing fell in her lap late and he seemingly wasn’t in play or that email wouldn’t have been sent.
It’s the right time to move on Gott, but NC State won’t do it though. If they had the stones to do so, then the “patience” Christmas card would have been great foreshadowing. Instead, I’m guessing nothing will happen and it was as bad as it looks on the surface.
This site and TOS need a better search function. I was worried about the Yow hire because of the mess left st Maryland. Non-revenue sports there were great but football and men’s basketball were in a very public bad spot. Then there was the whole spending problem. These things were fairly well covered in a series of articles in the local media. Sid and TOB were goners which was a good thing, but it’d be interesting to see who she’d hire.
I was told by the sunshine squad that it was just bitter sweaty Gary not wanting to work, a media friend of his with an ax to grind, and that Maryland’s other problems were College Park, bad fans, poor tailgating and liking crabs more than BBQ. The financial issues didn’t exist or if they did, they’d been fully investigated by NC State’s people and Yow was fully cleared.
I said it could work, but someone really needed to watch the spending. I was told we had massive surpluses and checks and balances existed at State. To this day I am unsure about our budget. Hopefully the latter is the case. When I see things like the Reynolds project (which has little foreseeable ROI given we can’t leverage it to return to camps for men’s basketball if needed), I really wonder.
In the end, six years in, we’re about as I expected. Non-revenue sports are clearly better, which helps the Sears Cup rankings. Spending is clearly up (but in Yow’s defense so seemingly are TV and sparred revenues). The revenue sport hires are mixed (football still needs time to play out). We missed the chance to leave the ACC (though I’m not sure Yow could do much there). I still think it’s going to get ugly.
I watched the second half. The effort was there. The fix was in. Not much else to say than that.
It was good to see Kirk get some minutes. Too bad we’ve seen this story before where a lightly used player becomes the designated whipping boy of the officials.
Cat is very special and should be ACC POY, though playing on this team may rob him of that. It will be a shame if that happens.
I was a student (undergrad and grad) during the Les and HWSNBN eras. I witnessed a lot of putrid basketball.
The difference then was that there was always hope that we’d return to our rightful place. Les was the alum falling on the sword for ridiculousness. The next guy would come in and win like we had under V and Sloan. It was to be briefly endured. HWSNBN’s ten long miserable years, 5 of which were after it was obvious he wasn’t the answer, the hiring of Lowe and his incredibly predictable results and this regime’s reboot of HWSNBN’s last five have about finished me off.
We are seemingly destined to blow timing opportunity after timing opportunity because we’re seemingly too scared to do what needs to be done. We will underachieve until all our comparative advangtes are gone. We’ll have no one but ourselves to blame.
Thanks for the update. Your work is appreciated.
I’ve watched the least amount of NC State that I’ve watched in my lifetime. When I do watch (minus a half here or there), it is painfully bad.
I’ve watched probably the least amount of NCAA basketball in total in my lifetime. When I do watch, the product is generally not that good. Having said that, most of the teams that I’ve seen play look like they could beat NC State this year. We’re just bad on so many levels outside of Cat. Almost every team I casually watch looks better at fundamentals, has crisper ball movement, etc..
NC State’s only chance at the post season is to win the ACC tournament. In the current tournament format, the likelihood of that run has to be less than 1%.
This is setting up for a historically bad season. It’s hard not to see this as a burning dumpster fire. It’s too bad we’re going to look the other way and pretend it’s a mulligan.
Thoughts:
Recruiting always goes up in year 1 of a coaching change. It tails off afterwards, particularly if it’s not perceived that the coach is breaking through. This “spoil” or lack thereof is as much to do with year 1 + year 3 as it is with just the fact that we’re in year 3 and are regressing back to the natural norm.I feel like there were tiers in the conference:
– Top 15, a cut above: FSU, Clemson, ND
– Second tier: Miami (quality not quantity, watch them join the first bucket next year), UNC
– Muddled middle: Duke/Pitt as surprises, VT, State, UVA, Louisville
– Other: WF, Syracuse, BC, GT
In our tier, it feels like they’re all about the same. It’s up to the staffs to integrate the players, retain them, develop them, etc.. That’s what will cause any real differentiation.I think we recruited to need. I’d have liked to have seen a couple of more highly ranked LBs and DBs, but otherwise the class lines up with needs. That’s important.
Recruiting clearly matters in college sports. I do think that football is less exact and predictive than basketball.
I’m fine with the class. It hits needs. It’s about what I’d expect given the year and our on field performance. If it doesn’t improve, DD is probably not going to make it long term, but I’m sure he knows it too. If 1/3rd the conference (and three of which you have to play every year) clearly recruits better, it’s going to be hard to ever get beyond about 5-3 in the league.
Counter point: Going 8-4 (5-3) trends towards our high water mark for our program. If you look at resources, investments, etc., then that may be fine.
Good win, and a blueprint for the way we can win some more. Miami is actually pretty good this year. Here’s to hoping we see a few more like this.
I didn’t get to watch due to the split ACCN split (and I’m in the market that got UVA). I saw the score and it looks like we jumped out on the early, and all members of NC State took frustration out on Pitt. It also feels like we played our best game of the year. Much needed and timely.
I’m afraid we’re not catching Duke at a good time. There’s no way K or the ACC is going to let them get to a losing conference record.
Ahhh, the dreaded show of support by other fan bases. I told all my UNC friends and family that Doherty was really building something as well.
Paki: I wouldn’t hold my breath for UNC basketball to get what they deserve. I think UNC is stalling to try and get to Roy’s retirement (this year?) or hoping that the Power 5 have almost broken completely away. I think the NCAA is really trying to look the other way, but doing so completely will bring the lawsuits that might bring the whole “student athlete” thing crashing down. Look for both sides to abruptly “settle” to some minor BS like games vacated, a one year tournament ban, and maybe 2-3 scholarships reduced over 2-3 years. It won’t amount to much other than giving Hubert Davis a bunch of built in excuses.
It’s funny when you think about those sanctions, it is about like the hand that Gott and staff voluntarily dealt themselves this year, and seemingly will next year as well. It is baffling really.
I agree with those saying you need talent to win big. There are two ways to get it — recruit elite talent or take good players and develop them. We’re seemingly trying the former, but are probably better off doing the second.
I don’t agree with the premise that we are getting good shots on offense. An open shot on offense isn’t necessarily a good one. Sometimes there are reasons a player is open (opposing coach saying to let a player shoot from there if they want to). A close to the basket shot isn’t a good one if rushed or off balance. About every shot Rowan takes is a bad one because he’s running off screens and seems to be off balance. An offense isn’t generating good looks if the effective FG % is pretty much dead last amongst D1 power conference schools.
I do agree with the thought that if we had a more efficient offense, we’d have won more games. I just don’t think that it is shooting alone.
Wulf: You make valid points but those are on the coaches, less on the players and definitely not on Cat. The latter is what I thought you were implying.
I can’t put any of this on Cat. He’s playing very hard and at a very high level.
Look at that box score. Despite having no one who can throw the ball in the ocean, Cat still had 7 assists and a 3.5:1 assist to turnover ratio. That goes with scoring 26 points and playing every minute. His play is good for the team and program. He’s having the best season that a NC State PG has had since Corch. He’s an amazing player. He’s just surrounded by a handful of players (because we have fewer players than teams on probation) that are basically role players.
The best thing that will come from this season is if Cat plays himself into a lottery pick. That would be the best thing for this program at this point given what I am seeing because it’d help with recruiting.
As for the “every loss is an ultimatum on the coaching going back to HWSNBN,” I don’t think that is the case. NC State is very patient with coaches. We gave HWSNBN 10 years, and never actually fired him. We gave Lowe 5 despite only winning 31% of his conference games. Many were all about the “Gottfather” for quite some time. While the signs were clear as far back as year 2, it was only last year that many began recognizing the split in the fan base. Les had his staunch supporters as well.
I’d suggest we’ve just seen a lot of bad basketball. We’ve seen a coach stubbornly dig in with a flawed system and recruit exclusively to that system, a coach that didn’t look like any prep happened between games, and now a coach who hasn’t managed scholarships well and whose teams are glaringly lacking in fundamentals. I’d agree that these past 4 years have been the high water mark (along with HWSNBN’s last 5) in our wandering of the desert since V, but that’s not really saying much when you compare the program to where it has been in the past.
As soon as Henderson went down, this season was done. It’s sad that in year 5 the margin of error is so thin. Also, did anyone watching against Wake not think that their program is in better shape than ours? That’s in year 2 of a coach that is clearly building. What are we building if in year 5 we look less deep, less talented and less fundamentally sound than Wake? Keep in mind, this is WF that was coached by Bzz, who was one of the worst coaches in ACC history. Manning didn’t exactly inherit a great program, or even the talent that Lowe left Gott.
92owen: I hope your source is correct. That’d be the best news I’ve heard about NC State basketball in a long, long, long time. One has to wonder how long Arch is willing to wait being “on deck” before millions come and pry him away next year. Florida almost did it last year.
Fastback68: I think rebounding is one of the most important stats in the game. Basketball is a game of generating possessions. Generating turnovers is one way to do it, but I’d argue it’s the harder way. Rebounding is the easy and arguably more effective way. A defensive rebound ends the possession and prevents the opponent from generating extra shots. The offensive rebound allows one to either take typically high percentage shot (and likely get fouled) or it allows one to reset the offense.
One of our (many) problems as you mention is what we do with offensive rebounds. I’m not sure given our system if kicking it out is wise. We struggle to generate high percentage looks. Getting a short shot, even with players surrounding is likely better than what we’re going to generate in the half court (mid to long range off balance jumper or Cat trying to get back to the same spot where the rebound occurs). They might as well toss it up like hot lava and hope it goes in and they get fouled.
Given NC State’s current coaching situation, my guess at our salary band, and our place in the pecking order, I think this was a good hire. There was no hire that we were going to make that wasn’t going to come with some risk. I’m glad we did this as opposed to promoting from within, which I thought we might do.
The thing about Boise is that they have a LOT of talent and have for a while. You can run a lot of schemes and be successful with that much talent. Here’s to hoping he is a good recruiter.
The most promising thing to me about the hire is what he did with a freshman QB this year. I don’t know much about that QB so maybe he was just really good, but I’m hoping it means he is running a system that is easy to pick up and that he knows how to bring a QB along. I never thought Canada was good at developing QBs, and that’s not jus revisionist history after year three. JB should have looked a lot better last year given he was the savior and had sat out a year and worked so closely with Canada.
If nothing else, this will pump some life into the offense. That’s definitely needed given all the questions.
I’m sure Gott isn’t in denial. He’s always been more of the positive type that keeps losses in perspective (at least in the media) and I think that is a good thing. What do you expect him to say? “I screwed up big time with this roster and we just don’t have the horses?” That’s a recipe for the team mailing it in the rest of the season. The only answer is to tell them they’re close and need to dig a little deeper, and hope that a player or two get hot.
I don’t think Cat is winning POTY. It is very tough to do, much less on a bottom dweller. He may not even make first team All-ACC due to the love for Paige (and how they’ll finish) and the great assist:TO ratio that the Pitt PG has and how much they’ve over achieved (if these two trends were to continue). Cat will be viewed as a high margin shooter on a bad team. I do think he’s playing his way into a first round pick and guaranteed money. He has some intangibles you can’t teach and every NBA team needs a lightning quick player at the point that can also score and create his own shot.
Don’t insult the players. Outside of FT shooting (which I think is fair game), they’re seemingly doing what they’re being asked.
I didn’t like this hire when we made it and was vocal about it. The rally at the end of year one gave me hope, but getting punched in the mouth by Oklahoma State in year two answered any lingering questions I had about the staff and whether they could build year over year. Like with Lowe, the foreshadowing was there in the great year two flop. It is just how long it takes to play out, and the fact that the ceiling is a bit higher with this staff.
As for the game, I watched the first half and a chunk of the second. It was obvious early that the only way we’d win was Cat scoring 50, because the bigs were all going to foul out. Wake looked much better coached and their offense generated much higher percentage shots than ours did.
If this season plays out like I think it is going to, Gott had better make some staff changes in the offseason. I don’t know if his ego will take system changes but staff changes will be needed to show he’s doing something.
