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I think we’ve covered transfers in another thread (and my opinions of those). The playing time has been there. It’s not been an issue of being buried on the bench. I’m not inside the kids heads’, but from the outside it looks like expectations not aligning with reality.
My biggest issue with our scholarship plan is the unused ones. We leave more on the table than schools on probation get revoked! Let that sync in. We effectively put ourselves on probation voluntarily. It’s maddening.
Roo: You’re hitting on what I was saying about Mox. While I can’t pretend to know the day to day life of a recruiter in college basketball, I would guess being unable to travel severely hampered his effectiveness. I can’t lay it all at the feet of him though. There were other coaches on staff, and the scholarship allocation strategy was seemingly set higher.
I hope Mox helps us in his new role. Our schedule wasn’t as good this past year. I say this not about the top line names, but more about those other games that really need to be RPI builders. There seemed to be more more attention to detail on the scheduling the first few years than there was last year.
If Lutz was indeed the defensive coach, to me that is a head scratcher. I was really hoping for all these years that was just a mis-interpetation of what happened when we hired him. I never felt his teams at Charlotte were good defensively. They were good at shooting and offense, and he was hired at Iowa State to work on shooting.
On topic, supposedly Schroyer’s UT Martin teams play the same zone that Tark used at UNLV:
The success for Martin has hinged on the outstanding recruiting by Schroyer, along with his “amoeba-zone defense.” As you recall from earlier analyses, that is the matchup zone concept that was originated in Pittsburgh, nearly 40 years ago, used by Tarkanian in his Runnin’ Rebels championship seasons of the early ‘90s and now implemented by Schroyer (who learned it from Tark) to turn around the fortunes of these Skyhawks.For all of us clamoring for zone with Gott, we may finally get our wish. I hope that Gott hands the defense over to him and let’s him coach it. Anya in the middle of a fundamentally sound defense could be a scary thing for opponents.
Shoes: I seemingly see a shift in recruiting philosophy. Maybe it is out of desperation, but I see is offering more 4 star, top 100 type kids earlier. Maybe it’s just new blood on the trail, or maybe it is what I want to see.
I do agree with you about the offensive system. The last two years it has been a ton of isolation, so pick and roll and running a shooter off those flare screens. That offense to me looked little like the UCLA that we were running in year 1 (which was when I thought the offense looked the best under Gott). We’ve also slowed the pace down considerably from year one.
I hope we see a different offensive and defensive philosophy. There were hints that Lutz was doing most of the planning, and those flare screens looked a lot like what I remember him running at Charlotte. Maybe these changes will go with style of play changes as well.
One can only hope…..
Bjd: I think you’ve got to have talent to win in this league. If Lutz didn’t want to recruit or wasn’t effective, and Mox’s health issues limited his effectiveness, then these moves were good ones. I’m not inside the program and don’t really know.
I do know our recruiting strategy wasn’t working. Something had to change. I won’t lay that on Lutz and Mox. Maybe this is a sign of a shift in that as well, which would be good.
I get your point about needing talent to overcome coaching, system and gaps in fundamentals. The theme of the coaching of these assistants seems to be defense and expecting high effort from players. Defense has been a glaring gap, so hopefully things improve there.
Roo: Thanks for the scoop on the caravan. Sometimes what is not said is as important as what is said.
I think the assistant hire is a solid one. Supposedly a good recruiter and a coach focused on defense. That’s two of the same mold hired this offseason, so I think we’ve collectively realized that defense and recruiting weren’t where they needed to be. That’s good because we’re seemingly at least trying to address it.
Now, if we see the same sorry defense next year, and we enter the 2017 season with unused scholarships, then we’ll know what must be done…..
I don’t believe Cat’s uncoachable or a bad teammate. Nothing I’ve seen suggests that at all. He’s improved drastically since he’s been here which means he’s put in the work. He played Ironman minutes last season and always dove for loose balls or ended up on the floor, which obviously means he’s willing to make sacrifices for the good of the team.
I have my fingers crossed that Barber ends up in San Antonio. NC State’s players haven’t ended up in good situations with respect to the NBA franchises that have drafted them. I was really hoping Warren would end up in San Antonio.
Roo: Welcome to the club. There’s always room for another.
There’s no way Lutz ends up as head coach here. It’s the same reason why the theory by some that Dooley was coming as a “head coach in waiting” made no sense either. If Gott’s gone, Yow’s likely gone. If Yow’s gone, and things stay on the current trajectory, then Gott’s likely gone. It seems we have both at least a couple of more seasons. The only way Gott’s gone faster is if he completely implodes (Alabama style). If that were to happen, I think the PTB would step in and we’d chart a new path.
Like you, I felt that Lutz was the “real coach” on the staff. I was pretty impressed with his work at Charlotte relative to resources, budget, program stature and lack of a real platform (ConfUSA school in the heart of ACC and Tobacco Road). I’d have been happy with us hiring him 5 years ago — happier than I was about hiring Gott.
I figured Lutz was gone this year, but I didn’t see it going down like this. I suspect the current position is more about his contract and keeping him on to continue to work. It’s also easier to find a job when you have a job (but maybe high profile coaching is different in that regard).
I do hope some new assistants fix what ails us. Maybe they’re paired with other changes that will become obvious later (like when HWSNBN brought in Larry Hunter). One thing that I think I see is what appears to be a switch in recruiting philosophies, which I think is a wise move. The path we currently seem to be charting (aggressively going after 4 stars who might stay a while and offering enough scholarships to actually fill a roster) is the one that I think is right for NC State. Mix in an occasional 5 star, and there’s enough talent (as long as you retain them) to go very far. While HWSNBN’s recruiting was flawed in that he didn’t recruit a whole team, he did have the right idea about the types of kids to go after.
92owen: Learn anything at the Caravan?
I’ve accepted that Gott is here as long as Yow is. To me these changes are good because we’re at least trying something. I am not inside the program. I don’t know whether these were the causes of what ails us or those were something else entirely. I’m hoping that these changes fix us.
I felt the same about football. I actually had issues with Canada for multiple seasons. I wasn’t sad to see him go. Whether we upgraded remains to be seen, but I think that we upgraded on the OL.
With football, I think our issues on defense were as much about talent as they were about scheme. We need upgrades badly in the back 7 as well possibly as schematic changes. Unfortunately I think that DD is more involved with the defense, so it probably reflects him and his vision, so if schematic changes are needed and coming, it likely only happens with a change at the top, or a change in his philosophy.
The philosophy change is very hard for a young coach to make, particularly if he thinks he is under the gun to perform. It takes trust to really delegate or give up that control. The natural inclination would be to double down on what one feels is right, and thus to be more controlling.
Ehh, let’s see who we end up hiring. It might be Dooley. It might be someone else. I heard other names were in play as well when we hired Pierre.
One thing that’s struck me as odd about this Dooley thing is why someone would seemingly take a step back from being a head coach to an assistant voluntarily? It would have to be that they’re getting out ahead of the lynch mob, or that they really didn’t want to be a head coach or there would have to be a huge discrepancy in pay. The latter would almost be great ammo in negotiations with the current employer (i.e. I can make double as an assistant to what you’re paying me as a head man).
Looks like NC State initiated this coaching staff change more than Lutz. We seemingly have the next addition lined up and want them to get started. GT either isn’t hiring Lutz or there’s something going on with the hiring process.
I don’t think Lutz will be in this position long. I’m not sure if we owe him a buy out, but if we do he he may as well continue to help with the program if we’re going to pay it. If so, that’s a wise move.
I just can’t see him in this role long term though. I’d be very surprised if he was in this role more than a year from now. My guess is that he’ll end up coaching elsewhere.
As for the duration of a next assistant’s contract, I think Gott’s here for as long as Yow is anyways. The assistant contracts aren’t changing that. Hopefully these changes fix what ails us.
I still think the best thing that happened to NC State this offseason was Archie signing an extension at Dayton. Hopefully it keeps him out of play until Yow retires.
This was the second staff move that I expected. We’ll see who we hire. It is critical that we get this one right.
There have been lots of rumblings that Lutz was much more involved in the day to day than Gott. If Gott is hands off and leaves more of the coaching and prep to assistants then we’d better get this one right.
66: To be fair, many staffs in the college and NFL ranks are filled with people who were fired at their last gig. One could argue that the most successful college football head coach of the past 20 years (Pete Carroll) was unceremoniously fired from his previous gig.
I do get the point of your post. The true stars are continuing an upward trajectory. It’d be nice to have some of those on staff. Eventually though all coaches will either reach their “Peter” principle position, or they’ll settle into somewhere for the long ride.
To have not been fired at your last job at a certain level in coaching can also suggest:
– The person is just young
– The person has bounced around a lot
– The person possibly hasn’t taken enough risk
– The person was hired as a grad assistant and has stayed on with a successful staffI think Pierre was a great hire. I’m hoping that this fixes what ails us.
It was pretty common knowledge that Abu told the staff from Day 1 that he didn’t plan to play college ball more than 2 years, and reiterated that before the season started.
Now, he may very well come back, because he’s a very smart kid and knows what hand he’s playing right now.
Thanks BJD. Kind of what I was saying, but you’re saying it more directly.
This doesn’t mean Abu will definitely leave. In fact going through the process might tell him what my eyes seem to suggest — that another year would probably help his draft stock. If so, that means this rules/process change has actually worked for the good of a player, which seemingly rarely happens.
It does suggest to me though that this is what Abu has planned and therefore probably wants. It also suggests that it won’t take much in the way of positive feedback to tip him in that direction. We’ll see in the coming months though….
With respect to Freeman, if I were him, I’d think long and hard about taking a medical redshirt. There’s far more life after basketball. Take that year, use the medical staff, trainers, etc. to try and heal. You don’t want to look back 30 years later and wish you’d have done something different.
Now, as I say this, do I think him redshirting is the best thing for NC State’s results next year? Nope. Do I think it’s the best thing for Freeman, who is a student? I’m not a doctor, but possibly so. If so, that’s the decision I’d want for him, and that’s the type of program that I want to support (doing what is best for the players).
Now, should the staff be out recruiting forwards like crazy? Yep. They should have been for some time though. This shouldn’t have changed anything with respect to their sense of urgency.
On topic, I think Pierre can help us land some talent. I like Mox a lot but suspect due to his health issues we’ve been operating at a significant disadvantage on the recruiting trail. Hopefully he’s got some people he can bring along because we really need help.
I do not think that Gott is best for our program long term. Given the change that is coming with UNC, Duke, Syracuse, Louisville and Miami, we have a window to get something built to change the pecking order. We should move now so we’re well positioned when that change happens. Instead we will seemingly wait and continue to play catch up.
All the transfers are huge problems, particularly with the thin roster (as you mention). It makes the category 4 transfers even more baffling because it’s not like they’re fighting for playing time. We routinely treat our scholarships in a way that is similar to what teams on probation get. That’s mind boggling.
When there are only about 25 players, 3 is a large group. Lump type 1, 3 and 4 transfers together as a group and we’ve got almost no contributing player staying for four years. It’s impossible to build a program that way. Meanwhile Duke’s got Allen back for another year. That’s my point. If others don’t agree that’s fine. We’ll agree to disagree.
Tau: I know you have issues with me. That’s fine. Argue the post not the poster.
My post focused on the fact that there are 4 categories of transfer. I find it interesting that people focus on the 3rd (early departures to pros that don’t end up in the NBA). Does that mean that they’ve just accepted that we have too many category 4s, and can’t argue it? When you pair 3 and 4 together, it’s not a good story and it makes one stop to think about the category 3s. If you have category 3 transfers paired primarily with early departures that break thruogh, then one looks at those that don’t make the NBA one way. If you see mass departures every year, it looks like rats getting off a sinking ship. THAT is my point.
As for the small sample size of 2 to 3, the whole landscape has a small sample size. In 5 years, we’ve had about 50 total scholarships that have been used across maybe 25 players. If you have 2-3 leave this way, that’s a significant percentage.
Let’s put it another way. Year over year, we’ve lost 50-75% of our scoring, rebounding, etc.. We’re losing far too much of this to kids who haven’t exhausted eligibility. It’s hard to build a program that way.
As for Abu, I hope that he stays. I like the kid and we badly need him. I’m not one that wants bad for the program, even if it makes me “right.” The rumblings though have been consistent since before he ever stepped foot on campus — that he was hoping to be a 2 year guy. I hope he gets honest feedback, takes it in and acts accordingly. My gut says though that if hears from even one NBA exec that they might take him, he’ll stay in the draft.
The game winner was beautiful last night. Sadly I expect more justice was doled out by Villanova last night than will be handed down by the NCAA. At least for one night though, cheaters don’t always prosper.
Cow dog: I’m talking about Lacey primarily, and then Abu if he goes. There have been strong rumblings for some time that the latter would happen. I think he’d have to get some very negative feedback from Scouts not to go, but if that were the case then it’d be a situation where the system actually worked for the kid. I just can’t see him getting drafted.
I’m not sure which bucket to lump TdT into. His exit interviews from Twitter weren’t the best.
It is interesting that the focus is on category 3. It’s the category 4 transfers that have hurt is the most. Pair 4 with 3 and it will be very difficult to ever really build anything.
I turned down job offers while in school to finish my degree(s). I was banking that the end game was better than the offers. Some of that evaluation comes from doing engineering degrees versus something like African American studies (i.e. no end game).
I’m not making the athletes should get a degree argument. If they think their degree is basketball, then so be it. It’s just that one more year getting “paid” to develop while getting top flight exposure, medical treatment, dietary help, training facilities, access to trainers, etc. while still having board and some walk around money seems like not as clear cut a decision as the strawman of (getting paid $100k) makes it sound.
Lots of kids look at that decision every year and decide to take another year in college. We have kids that should be making that decision and are not. In and of itself, possibly just bad individual decisions. When paired with the class 4 transfers, it points to bigger concerns about buy in and the program.
Fair point on pay for play. I would counter and say that men’s college basketball and football aren’t doing it for free or the love of the game. It’s not the same thing as a kid on a fractional scholarship to play field hockey.
I just checked and the current cost to attend NC State for a year is $38k for out of state. That’s tuition, room and board, books and about $2k in miscellaneous. The college athlete typically gets some sort of stipend while on the road. They get prize packs for attending bowls. There’s seemingly some walk around type money (which I think the Power 5 are looking to increase). There’s also medical care, insurance, the actual trips, etc..
My point is that while it may not be $100k, it’s not zero either. It’s probably conservatively around $45k for NC State and it’s more like $75k for Duke.
So, are they doubling their salary to play ball? Sure, one could absolutely look at it that way. One could also look at it like they’re giving up the chance to break out and parlay that $55k opportunity cost into +$1M that comes for further exposure of another year.
That’s the case with Lacey. He made the decision that he felt was right for him. I don’t think this year’s draft is nearly as deep, and I suspect had he put up similar numbers, he’d have probably been drafted. Maybe he would or maybe he wouldn’t, we’ll never know. He felt that he wouldn’t though, so he voluntarily gave up the year.
Part of that is up to the players, but part of that is on the coaches. If the players believe they’ll actually develop and get more exposure, then that $55k opportunity cost seems worth it. Our players seemingly don’t have that belief (though I hope for all parties that Abu does).
That’s why you have to look at the whole picture. If all the early departures are category 1 (NBA bound) and category 2 (GPA guys on the bench), then category 3 (left early at the first sign of dollars) are probably ones that just didn’t evaluate correctly. When you have a lot of category 4s (big minute guys leaving for lateral moves), then one has to question the category 3s.
Long story short, the category 4 transfers are clearly holding the program back. The category 3 transfers are as well. When you have as many in these buckets as we do, one has to look internally to evaluate what is going on. It’s not all “those kids on my lawn,” the culture of NCAA basketball, AAU, Handlers, etc.. There’s another common denominator there, and one that makes a lot more sense.
I heard at least two exchanges last night regarding the scandal. Both Nance and Rafferty seemed to be trying to sweep it under the rug. CBS clearly had their talking point and positions.
Expect to be woefully disappointed in the outcome. When guys like Kane are finding discrepancies that the NCAA have seemingly missed it is because the NCAA doesn’t want to find them.
The timing on this has seemingly been decided for quite some time. It was rumored before the season started that nothing would come out until May, giving UNC one more run at a title.
Roo: I’d ask that we stop with the Butch/Butch play on words with this thread. It implies that we’re knowingly hiring someone with a lot of baggage just as UNC did. It also implies a lot of shady things will happen in recruiting. Other than the same first name, the similarity seems to end there.
As for the question about the assistants don’t get caught up on the title. Assistant vs associate wasn’t meant to be implied. Also, if I’m the poster that you are referencing, if you go and look in that thread I clearly stated that I had no insider information on that one, and no sources. Just some rumblings and had pieced something together. We’ll see in the next couple of weeks whether it was right. I actually hope it was not.
As for the transfer pattern, there is something wrong with ours. I’ve hired a LOT of people in my career. Nobody bats 1.000 in doing so. If you have people leave for clear promotions, pay and titles that you cannot match (TJW and maybe Cat), then that’s almost a good thing because they’ve clearly developed. If you have the low performers leave (the last guy on the end of the bench who can’t ever get into a game), then that’s probably okay. It may even free up a spot (if you have all the head count and budget allocated) for someone higher performing to step in. If you have ones that leave for the first chance at more money (Lacey and Abu if he stays in the draft) then that begins to be an eye opener about the type of culture the leader is creating and whether people believe in it, the team, and the greater misson. If you have your main guys who get a lot of good opportunities and exposure leave for what are at best lateral moves (and given most NCAA transfers have to sit out, even leaving for a blue as an undergrad transfer would be at best lateral) then that’s where the expectations set when hiring simply were not correct.
Not all transfers are created equally, just as not all staff turnover should be viewed the same way. I hear the transfer stats trotted out as justification, but there are many types of transfers, so one has to look a little deeper. HWSNBN had a lot of transfers at State, but other than Wilkins all those that left were in category 2. Gott’s early departures have largely been in category 4, and that is a significant problem. There’s no nice way to spin it.
This is a good hire. Both LSU and Oklahoma State had a lot of talent — so much that it made up for weak coaching (LSU got all the way to the Final Four). One has to think that a combination of Pierre and Early will be strong on the recruiting trail.
My question is whether this shores up anything with the on the bench coaching.
Think: Yep, and I stand by it. Ironically the “recruiting class” and reliance on transfers is part of why it makes sense to make the move now. Four incoming freshman might put us in a situation like the Hodge class where we’re held captive by the fear of recruits leaving.
DSJ is the only incoming freshman and he’s already enrolled. He’s not going to sit another year. The other new players to the roster have also sat and waited. They’re not going to waste more time. Abu’s decision seemingly has nothing to do with Gott, and everything to do with what the NBA tells him. Mav’s a very old freshman.
Also, we’ve got one assistant position open and maybe a second. That means guaranteed change regardless. May as well have the new coach hiring the assistants.
If you know what needs to be done, then it doesn’t do any good to wait to do it. It’s been clear since year two where this would ultimately go. It is only a matter of time before the fans and power brokers figure it out and how long it takes to play out.
I’m fine with being labeled the lunatic fringe. It’s time to get far more proactive and strategic.
Think: I’ll give you an easy one to quote. Fire Gott now. Year 2 was the mulligan. This ship has been taking on water ever since.
I realize you support Gott. That’s fine. HWSNBN had his vocal and adamant supports who saw the seeds of greatness being sown. Fowler had his defenders and excuse mongerers as well. Sid had some arguing for another year. I don’t think any of those defenders changed what ultimately needed to be done.
NC State isn’t doing anything this year. We’ll turn over some assistants (more instability). Gott defenders will be vindicated when DSJ, Dorn and Henderson offer enough to get us into the tournament next year. We’ll then have another mass exodus and will absolutely suck the following year. Maybe by then we’ll have Yow retired, or even the risk adverse power brokers will no longer be able to ignore it.
I’ve accepted that’s how this is going to play out. The best thing that happened to State in all of this is Arch signing an extension with Dayton. Hopefully he stays there and we have a shot when we finally wake up.
Roo: There’s officially one spot open right now on the staff as Mox has moved to Director of Basketball Operations.
There’s rumored to be another spot that might be coming open on staff. This is pure speculation but if you think about the last few offseasons something would make sense.
No insider information on this one….. Not pretending to have it either….
