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bill,
1. Even our conspiracy theorists haven’t come up with that one
2. It will shock you to know we think we get more bad calls than good. There are a few zebras that make our blood boil, mostly those that did U Cin, Ohio State, Dayton and Butler games.
3. I am old school so the in-your-face style is not for me. Other fans think we need more barking. If I were on the opposing team Stainbrook’s whining to officials would annoy me (he has gotten better). Martin occasionally does the holster and smoking gun thing if he hits a couple of threes. But each is basically a good kid. Reynolds, a freshman with freakish athleticism who will be very good some day, is very exuberant which can be misread. Christon, D. Davis and Philmore are under control at all times. I am sure all your guys are choirboys.Xavier fan here. Thought you might like to have the perspective from one of us.
First, you seem to be surprised and ecstatic you made the field. Most of us thought we did enough to avoid the play-in game, but are moving on as we know we had opportunities to remove any doubt.
Second, we don’t consider this a home game in the least. (Kenpom considers this “semi-home”.) The reason is the mutual revulsion between Xavier and Dayton. Let’s put it this way: our coach’s wife was a HOF women’s basketball player at Dayton but that did not keep her from ugly verbal attacks a while back when we played them up there. What most casual observers don’t know is that Dayton fans with season’s tickets are required to buy the play-in game as part of their package. Many of them, if they go, and most do, will loudly support you, because they hate us. So there will likely be a raucous crowd of our fans, opposing (I suppose) a smaller number of your fans added to a lot of Dayton fans who hate us.
Third, yes we think we got a decent draw, but not because we disrespect you or in particular Warren. The feeling derives from what little we know about you from the raw stats, which supports that you are not strong in the areas we are weak. Let’s put the Warren question to bed right away — we don’t have a special defender or defense for him, so he should get his points. We may try some doubling and hope he does not make us pay with good passes. We generally don’t like to zone (but more on that later). As for our weaknesses, those are defense of the 3 pt shot (because we play the packline defense — think Virginia in style if not result), which does not appear to be your strength, and turnover rate, which again you do not seem to cause at a high rate. On the other hand, we rebound well (not your strength, we are told). Our identity year to year is tenacious defense (packline, hedging) but we are not as good this year because our bigs are not particularly mobile. Our 3 pt % on offense looks good, but we don’t take a lot (just like you) and (usually – more on that below) we are at our best attacking the rim (Christon) or pounding down to our bigs. Our offense does not feel great to us, but the efficiency stats say it is pretty good. One guy you need look out for is our 3, Justin Martin, who can get hot from 3 pt. He can score 6 or 18.
Fourth, Christon (Warren’s roommate at Brewster) is the real deal, unanimous 1st team Big East as a sophomore. Does not put up eyepopping numbers but is very efficient. He is unstoppable in transition and gets to the rim almost at will. He does not like to shoot from outside. If you have an elite off-guard defender that would be a major plus. Some teams have gone to zones to try to neutralize him, sometimes with success (more on that below).
Fifth, why the caveats and annoying references to “below”. Well, our relative optimism assumes the health of our center, Matt Stainbrook. He may look like a doofus and lumbering rec player, and whines a bit much, but he was Hon Mention Big East and is a big part of our offense and defense. On offense, he has an old style back down game with funky half hooks you don’t see any more and the ability to get your bigs in foul trouble. Equally important he is a superb passer so you double at your risk (he will find the slashers or open 3s), and he goes to the high post to break the zone as the recipient of entry passes. On defense he is the only guy we have to handle bulky bigs and is our best rebounder. However, he strained an MCL two weeks ago, pretty miraculously played limited minutes at clearly reduced capacity in our league tournament, and can’t have improved that much since Friday. (Another reason we are upset about the play-in game.) If he can give 25 minutes at close to his normal efficiency the prognosis changes for the better.
In summary, as befits a play-in team, we are good but inconsistent. We win if we dominate the boards, limit turnovers and shoot OK from 3 pt. If Stainbrook is effective I like our chances in a close game. If he is obviously limited in minutes or capability, the odds go down.
I would wish you good luck, but really ….
