Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
Teams (especially Wake Forest) schemed around the strength of our defense (d-line) with short, quick passing. Our secondary, which consists of five players in our nickel scheme, was below average. The best teams do not have such glaring weaknesses. Balance is more important than having a single, fantastic group. We may be better on defense this year because we may have more balance, though we won’t make as many headlines. West Virginia will be the test.
If ADs were measured on Director Cup performance (the most holistic and objective measurement) relative to expenditures, Debbie may rank #1. We may literally have the best AD in the country.
Don’t get used to it. Key Woman Risk: our program likely sinks back to irrelevancy once she departs. What are the chances we find a top 10 replacement?
Great ADs have no emotional ties like you and I, rather they want large budgets and a high salary. NC State offers neither. Debbie had personal ties and was undervalued (inexpensive) b/c the industry is sexist; if Debbie were a man, she could have named her school. Serendipity rarely repeats.
4 year average recruiting rankings:
Michigan 53
Villanova 38
NC State: 40 (which includes a low ranking due to coaching change)4 year average from last year:
Michigan 46
Villanova 40
NC State 23I think the Notrer Dame articles are click bait. There are too many more deserving teams. Missing a player is perhaps the last variable taken into account when narrowing down bubble teams. Notre Dame is too far outside the bubble discussion because they don’t have enough quality wins. Their best wins are 1) Wichita State 2) NC State 3) Florida State and 4) Syracuse. That won’t cut it.
Very frustrating to be projected as an 8/9 in the dance. Our resume is on par with UNC, who is projected as a 2 seed. WTF? RPI is a decent metric but the fact that it DRIVES seeding is abhorrent. I believe the committee will view the resumes without the name, so as to reduce bias, but the RPI is still glaringly different because UNC has one less loss and played a tougher OOC? Not just UNC but other teams have top 25 RPIs with comparable resumes. That’s unfortunate. Per the eye test – we are not quite as good as UNC but we are not 6 seeds lower either. No way we want an 8/9 seed. The worst possible seed! Higher or lower is better!! We need to play our way into a 6 seed. Win two games at the tournament and a 6 seed is reasonable.
Listen once you get below like 100 or so in the power ranking you’re pretty much splitting hairs aren’t you?
To expand this line of reasoning…you are splitting hairs between 5 and 10…and 20 and 35…and 40 to 60. What is the Vegas line if these teams played each other….a point?! (Many times in the contradictory direction!)
Said another way, popular rankings (RPI, coaches, AP poll, BPI) imply a linear relationship but as Goldenchain points out, this is not reality. In some ways the quadrant system reduces this issue because it cohorts wins/losses though that argument does not hold up because there is a circular reference and therefore a non-sequitur.
The only folks that have any business ranking teams are the Vegas odds-makers. Those quant ex-Wall Street guys that set the books are breathtakingly accurate. Hire them and call it a day…(although of course Vega loves these silly rankings which are used by dumb money bettors to inform opinions.)
When a bad team loses its top three scorers, expecting that team to improve to the middle of the ACC seems silly to me.
You are not alone. It was silly to most everyone but for the wrong reasons: that is to say, expectations were set using a faulty method that is common to human bias (quite similar to the curt anecdotal dismissal you espouse) and a general lack of analytical rigor or pure logic on the part of pundits. A byproduct of the faulty pre-season exceptions drives the narrative that Keatts is grossly outperforming. I argue he is outperforming but by a smaller margin than the current consensus.
Even if 12th was set using a proper method…what is the difference between 12th and 9th? Inherently speaking, not much…but the 9th ACC team will be a bubble team. So if we were picked to finish 9th – which is a bubble team and not materially different than where we were picked – then how happy would our fans be? Probably not super happy because 9th = bubble team which is what they expected because the pundits said so pre-season.
With eight more games left, Keatt’s has a chance to grossly outperform or he may lose 6 of 8. I’m optimistic.
For what it is worth LLWolf, I graduated from the College of Management – not a STEM program per se but I appreciate your comment.
Tau838: To elaborate, when I mention that there are 20+ other coaches…perhaps I should put it more generally. I believe there are 20+ other coaches who can take a team with average talent and make the dance. They may not do so every year, but they have demonstrated the aptitude…for example, in the ACC we have four coaches who regularly demonstrate this ability: Larranaga, Brey, Bennett and Buzz. In addition, most would agree that Boeheim and Krzyzeksi have this ability although they have not had average talent in decades. I do not lump Roy Williams in with these others…I do not believe him (or Calipari) could regularly take teams with average talent and make the dance. Thanks to chance, many average coaches can get lucky at the margin, squeak out a few extra wins, and make the dance with average talent.
To analyze the specific circumstances, as you do, is outside the scope of my post. Perhaps you are right on your points, although I would hesitate to give credit to back-to-back road wins or beating Duke and UNC in the same season because those “variables” seem spurious, although they make for good headlines, they play into the emotional element of analysis that I am trying to avoid. Unless perhaps they have some sort of predictive probability. I believe the more predictive variable is winning conference games, and coaches that win a lot of those games also tend to win back-to-back road games and they tend to beat good teams in the same season (Duke and UNC are usually good). Therefore those “variables” are not predictive but rather are the effect of good coaching.
I’ve seen three games and already feel confident that Keats is superior to Gott. I like his style and disagree with those who find it gimmicky with a ceiling. The press works well in half court so don’t need to full court superior teams.
Bobby Huggins does it best. His teams only ceiling is based on the talent he can recruit to WV. NC State gets better recruits. Hang on boys we may be a perennial top 25 program soon.
Crisis averted. Finley and our receivers reverted to the mean in the second half. Next week will be awesome.
Tackling was not AWFUL. Not great but the missed tackles are against an NFL back who has an effective stiff arm. Our boy J Sam has the best stiff around. We don’t lament those missed tackles…b/c they are not really missed when its J Same its just that we have a superior talent among mortals – am I right? So I’m not too upset that their talented back stiffed armed a few times. Defense is not the problem. Holding them to 14 points is not AWFUL considering their time and number of possessions. They scored 14 points in three quarters….kind of.
You can almost make the case….ALMOST….that we should never ever ever kick FGs. Even in a hail mary situation like we just had. It was the right call by Dave but only b/c of the circumstances. It was about the same distance to beat Clemson last year. Missed FGs WILL LIKELY cost us a game this year. I hope not this game. Hopefully it will be against the Irish.
Cons: Dropped interception. Dropped catches. Poor throws by Finley. Refs stole 4 points (the missed FG is on Dave for selecting a FG kicker worse than we had last year…how is that even possible?)
Pros: Okay defense (consider how many processions Pitt had). Pitt handed us 14 points.
Pitt fans should be more aggrieved than ours b/c they outplayed us. Hines combined with poor tackling by Pitt keeps it tied.
We are not good enough to play poorly and beat ACC teams.
I’ve predicted that Harmon may be our best NFL player. Louis is closing the gap and his development is amazing.
Finley was the better QB. Lamar has little chance for a lustrous NFL career. Very small chance to be a consistent starter. Nevertheless, and thankfully, he will turn pro next year but we will still keep Finley.
Are cornerbacks the hardest position in college to recruit? Even when we had Amerson we gave up huge plays regularly.
Can anyone decipher Cameron Bennermans tweet?
On one hand he seems to dismiss the serioussness claiming this is common place. On the other hand, he gives an anecdote which shows nc state to be extremely strict.Also what is the statute of limitations?
This was an upset victory very similar in caliber to those achieved by ECU and BC over nc state. Most coaches achieve a few per year hell its a statistical inevitability. I would read nothing more into this victory. Dave is still a long shot to overachieve this year.
Score is misleading. We did not play demonstrably better than Marshall. Lucky to have penalty calls go our way.
Very very very easy to scheme around ONE strength (d-line).
Concerns:
– Secondary is atrocious.
– Linebackers are average. (Why did they receive pre-season hype? Matriculating to seniors doesn’t magically increase athleticism.)
– Defensive coordinator is bad.
– O-line is awful. Unable to run-block against Marshall…really?
– Nyheim is the worst primary back we’ve had since the 90s. Start Gallaspsy.Positives:
– Kelvin Harmon is a pro.
– Stephen Louis is a solid second option.
– Jaylen Samuels lives up to hype.
– Finley is pretty good (though I don’t see pro-caliber).Assuming no improvement my updated outlook on the season is 5-7. ND, Louisville, FS and Clemson are losses. Then we are 50/50 against BC, Wake, UNC and Pitt. I’ll give us Syracuse.
Look forward to another coaching search soon!
Only as strong as your weakest link. D-line can’t overcome a weak secondary bc you just play calls around it. You guys watch the Panthers last year??
Not a bad performance. The team looks about as expected. Picked up where they left off last year.
We are only five point favorites. We dropped multiple interceptions and allowed two third down conversions from QB scrambles that led to touchdowns. Missed FG. We are the better team.
Debbie Yow is a great AD. Top 20. If she were a man she would be perceived differently. She has made mistakes but what AD hasn’t? Our athletics program is top 25 thanks to her. I think Dave D will work out – notice the program continues to trend in the right direction. Unlike TOB’s program and Gott’s which each showed flashes but were built on a shaky foundation.
Furthermore Debbie has the guts to admit mistakes and fire coaches when the writing is on the wall. That isn’t very common.
Darkhorse: Vinny Del Negro. What is this guy up to besides making a few television appearances? He’s shot his wad as an NBA head coach. What else could he do to make 2-3 million a year?
And if anyone compares him to Sidney Lowe…hah.
He has front office experience (recruiting and identifying talent) and head coaching experience. His NBA contacts would make him valuable to talented recruits. I would certainly diligence this guy as a backup.
Yow has an incredible eye for talent and the gumption to fire coaches: arguably the two most important traits for an AD. You can debate whether Gottfried was a B or C grade-hire but it wasn’t a D or F hire. Doerhen, currently a C+, is trending towards a B and, if we are so fortunate, could be a home run. I’ve been mum on him b/c I never saw a Sidney Lowe type (who didn’t speak proper English for Pete’s sake he constantly spoke in the wrong tense).
However her non-revenue hires, both here and at Maryland, have been spectacular. That’s not easy, especially at NC State which runs on a shoestring budget (despite the pride we feel for her we have a very poor school and are in the bottom Quintile of power 5). Don’t forget her head-coach-in waiting for Maryland football — James was a homerun “hire” that never occurred through no fault of her own. She was also right to try to fire Gary – what courage that took. He was holding the program hostage for his own personal gain (several million a year!)
Most arguments against Yow ring hollow to me.
