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Awesome post!
The team that appears to slightly deserve a spot over State is Cal. And if that is the case, it could have simply come down to the PAC already having 6 teams in and the ACC only 5 teams prior to including either State or FSU. Go Wellman!
But another look, it appears the ACC, B1G, and Big 12 all have 7 teams that are ~ Top 55. PAC has 6 in that range. So maybe the size of the ACC is making the graph appear worse than it really is. (Referring to VaW’s graph here)
You’re right, their defense is outstanding. And also right that it has been suggested that it is hard to teach ‘kids these days’ defense.
Remarkable that a chance remains, must be the slimmest of margins. From a biased perspective I think we are a good enough team to be given a bid. But I think it would be as much ‘given’ as ‘earned’ this particular season. We are truly on the edge.
Absolutely.
Go back to the beginning of the season. Near complete roster turnover. Picked 10th in the ACC. Depending on freshmen and transfers and a Senior whom had never been able to stay on the court or contribute.
And today, here they are with a puncher’s chance at an NCAAT invitation.
Go Wolfpack! You have earned that cheer.
VaWolf,Thank you for fixing that table.
Looking at the last 2 nights by the same criteria:
The Miami game was a toss-up, but our clear advantage in TO% would suggest a win.
The Syracuse game would chart as a ‘should loss’ as they held the advantage in 3 factors… But similarly we had a very clear advantage in eFG% where their 3 advantages were much closer to being washes. But still… That one could have gone the other way.
LOL, These old Big East coaches must be asking “What kind of pansy-ass conference have we walked in to?”
Sorry got quite busy this afternoon. Yes! The blanks mean toss-ups just like you have it in the updated table.
And it would be very cool to know if statistics could be applied. I’m not the best for that. My margins basically came from staring at the ceiling and speculating on what point/TO/RB/FTR differential over a 100-possession range would become “significant enough” to potentially drive the outcome of a game. So for example, if you shoot +2% eFG better than your opponent over 100 possessions, that translates to 4 points which the other team would have to overcome in some other way (say – by dominating the offensive boards).
Re: Your comment about last year’s team – Basically, using the FF criteria, we lost one game that we ‘should have won’ (home against Maryland) and we had three ‘toss-up games’ – which we lost all of them. So in other words, our individual game FF numbers justified at least a 12-6 conference record; or better with any toss-up games going our way.
But trust me, I think I get your drift.
That looks much better… The columns across are:
Game / Pace / Result / FF Projected Result / NCSU Offensive Rating / Opponent Offensive Rating / NCSU eFG% / Opp. eFG% / NCSU Turnover % / Opp. TO% / NCSU Off. RB % / Opp. ORB % / NCSU Free Throw Rate % / Opp. FTR%
Source data comes from: http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/north-carolina-state/2014-schedule.html
Then click on the date of an individual game to see the game data.
^ No offense to the doctor, but I think it’s officially the other way around dating through last season.
Excellent timing for this post, thank you! Good to get an update pre-ACC – Coming from someone who has a harder time keeping up from a distance, but loves some baseball.
Hat tip to SaccoV for the “Les Jones with the make-up sex!!” game thread post.
I was one of the few who thought the on-the-floor call was correct in the Syracuse game.
But last night… That series of events at the end of regulation: (a) the no-call; (b) the call; (c) the make-up sex; caused me to state out-loud, “The refs have completely fu#ked this game up.”
And really, that’s what is remarkable to me. All of the plays after the no-call became like alternate reality. The overtime felt like a joke; whether we were up by 6 or Paige was hitting the game-winner. None of it mattered. Because what we had was actually a very good basketball game for 39 minutes. And then in one instant, the refs fu#ked it up.
(you only get to use two names, have you ever in your life met a person that introduced himself as “James Michael”?)
LOL
^ The only thing I’ll say about
- that
is… If you tell a sophomore that you’re expecting him to carry a team – and he delivers – that qualifies as “improvement”. Because only a select few could deliver the goods the way TJ Warren has.
Totally agree with Ryebread.
What they ‘should’ do is kill the ACCT and play two additional regular season games. The odds of playing valuable games would increase for the teams that actually need to play valuable games. And just crown the leader in the standings as conference champion. But instead… we’ll get a (more) watered down version of something that used to be awesome.
my format
I think you mean Coach K’s LRI mercy format.
Let me be the first person this year to say:
“Win one in the ACCT and then we’re in!”This post is a … Whatever.
If NC State played in the SEC or B1G, would officiating be better? Maybe.
More importantly would State magically shoot FTs better? Because that would impact our success much more than officiating.
Very proud of our team last night. They had it won. I believe if they had a TO remaining for that last inbounds play we would be sitting on a win this morning. No fault implied there, just the way it played out.
Good point by Fastback on the preview thread – at least we are less likely to miss the entire 1st half like last week. But I preferred the 3:00 start…
