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Hey man, I said that 20% was “at best” 😀
In my quickie math, I think you have to think Marshall is about 3.5 times more likely to succeed here to go after him than Arch.
But yes, you do preliminary work with the consulting firm to put bones on those ballpark percentages before you pick your dance partner.
The grey area is how much butt sniffing you can do before you have to shit or get off the pot. I think it’s well before the interview phase, but yeah – don’t have to decide immediately without due diligence of any kind, either.
Without having the benefit of State’s diligence, I would presume we go after Arch. I can’t even really fathom a 3rd “A List” name, at this point.
If Crean gets fired, he would be my Plan B – again, subject to due diligence.
^ I don’t believe either of these guys “interviews” unless they know they are the guy. It’s more them interviewing YOU at that point.
Similar to John Calipari last time.
We can take ONE shot at an A-list candidate. ONE.
You have to weigh the quality of the candidate, along with the probability of “Getting to Yes.”
Even if one thinks Marshall is a better coach (I disagree), I think it is clearly outweighed by the significantly lower probability that he says yes. He’s a tough guy to read. You WILL have to offer more than $4M/year. I think it takes $5M minimum to get him to talk to you. Not sure we can get there. And it WILL be matched by the Kochs. I put the odds of landing him, AT BEST, around 20%.
Arch, on the other hand, will listen at $3.5-4M. And you can be certain that Dayton can’t match. It’s simply a matter of whether he chooses somewhere else. I would put the odds at around 70%, and it’s only that low because of the NC State/Charlie Brown factor. I could easily see us f-cking it up. AGAIN.
And you can’t take both shots. It will get out. Neither one of these guys will accept being sloppy seconds.
I mean, this is carousel talk here (I think the title is fair enough). Agree this is meant to be more focused than the other places where we talk about the AD and the departed coach.
Three jobs are clearly better than the rest – UCLA, Kentucky, and U*NC.
After that, there is the “A-” tier of Indiana and Kansas. I don’t think Duke quite belongs there because they are wholly a function of Coach K, and when he’s gone, they will be just another good job (with being a small private institution weighing against them).
There are at least 20-25 other schools next, that give a good coach everything he needs to make his mark, just maybe not the “extra bonus” of being at one of the 5 listed above. Each comes with its own specific set of strengths and drawbacks, so it’s more about finding the best individual fit. And it’s unlikely somebody will leave one school in this tier for another (ie, Sean Miller from AZ to NC State). Human inertia is just too strong, unless somebody is under the gun, like Tom Crean at Indiana.
Plus the off-court stuff would still have been going on, leaving us in a very exposed position.
This is no way to run a basketball program, and if a 1-in-1,000,000,000 lotto ticket pays off (which is what that would be), it should change nothing strategically.
All this goes back to is WHY YOU DON’T let him coach out the season. Find the assistant who is willing to audition for other employers by doing a stand-up, professional, QUIET job, and let him do it.
But that would involve proactive thinking, DY saying “no” to her buddy and admitting she made a mistake in taking a public line against an interim coach.
You can’t trust Mark Gottfried. If nothing else, that should have been crystal clear by now.
I was fairly restrained, in that I only agreed with the media’s pick of a 6th place finish. Thought we’d be rounding into shape and very dangerous for March, and in this ACC 6th would have set us up very nicely, as a 5 or 6 seed in the dance.
My football predictions were much better, adding up the percentages got me to like 6.8, so I rounded to 7-5, and I noted that my percentage odds would deviate from many others because I believed we had a very good shot at upsets vs. ND and on the road at UNC. Think I had them at 40% and 50%, respectively.
What threw me off was the BC loss, I had that at around 85-90%. EZU, one could smell coming a mile away. Redneck Superb Owl Sunday…
Unless they more or less lose out, tOSU should still make the NIT. Praying they don’t announce squat or put out feelers before that “run” ends.
I worry more about Indiana (a legitimate “cut above” top-tier job) than tOSU. I don’t think Arch wants to be 2nd fiddle on campus anywhere, and really hoops is 4th in Columbus, after footbaw, footbaw recruiting, and spring drills.
Being first in line DOES help, so long as we manage the process correctly.
HWSNBN. Took a step back to coach Arizona State. Got fired. Had to be out of coaching COMPLETELY for awhile, then took another, larger step back to where he is now (Pacific).
I’d say the market spoke pretty clearly as to the NC State job being above his level, wouldn’t you? NC State elevated HWSNBN. NOT the other way around.
The market will speak clearly again when MG goes right back into the broadcast booth (assuming he works at all next year, rather than party and count his money).
Just point to the cold, objective market when the trolls come out of the woodwork.
I would probably give her a B or B- overall, but mens’ basketball is our most visible and important program, and she committed several very big missteps there (at minimum – the pity party letter, the unnecessary extension).
Football is an incomplete. You can’t give Doeren extra credit for “doing it with low-rated recruiting classes” because recruiting is part of the job description.
But I understand that NC State football (unlike hoops) is a legitimate hard sell. So I grade that easier. He still has to produce this year or else.
Non-revenue sports are doing very well, agreed.
Still doesn’t seem rangy enough to be an NBA 3 or physical enough to be a 4. Might make sense to take a chance on a new coach turning things around (though if he’s graduating, he could also do the grad shool transfer rule thing and pick someone good with big men).
I assure you I won’t have ND doing jack shit in any of my brackets. Anybody who can play a lick of perimeter D should beat them easily.
