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Jackson … of course
Is he the no name that will be granted god b like abilities for two hours?
yeah I was just saying the same to the wife
I’ll watch tonight but that’s only because I’m a gluten for punishment and I need to yell at something after an hour commute turned into 3 hours today and spinning out on the ice/slush blacktop.
#15 in the Polls, but #12 in RPI. Weird thing is…State is #43 in RPI with a SOS that is similar, PLUS we’re 2-5 against RPI Top 25 teams. Strange that there is such a big gap.
Not weird if you notice that UNC is 4-1 against 51-100 and 6-0 against 101-200. State is 3-3 against 51-100 and 5-1 against 101-200. I wouldn’t call that gap strange at all.
Remember RPI ranking is just where does your RPI percentage fall in relation to everyone else. In this example you have #12 vs #48 (per the CBS page I brought up) thus a difference in ranking of 36 spots.
UNC is 0.6289
State is 0.5770
That’s a delta of 0.0519.If you apply that same delta to UNC you have a difference in ranking you get 0.6808 which would be good for #3 thus a difference in ranking of 9 spots. You apply the same difference below State and you get 0.5251 or #124 ranking thus a difference of 76 spots. The same delta changes the spot differential due to the number of teams closer together.
In a nut shell, you have 9 teams 0.0519 percentage points below #3, you have 36 teams 0.0519 percentage points below #12, and you have 76 teams 0.0519 percentage points below #48. Same difference but more teams thus the larger change in ranking.
Great analysis. But if I may, I’d like to show another common thread that these teams share
2002- MD 1st rd picks: Juan Dixon, Chris Wilcox
2003- SYR 1st rd picks: Carmelo Anthony(#3 overall),Hakim Warrick
2004- UCONN 1st rd picks: Emeka Okafor(#1 overall), Ben Gordon(#3 overall), Josh Boone, Marcus Williams, Charlie Villanueva
2005- UNC 1st rd picks: Ray Felton, Sean May, Rashad McCants, Marvin Williams
2006-2007 Fla 1st rd picks: Joakim Noah,Ronnie Brewer, Al Horford (Only team to ever have 3 players selected in the first 9 picks)
2008- KU 1st rd picks: Mario Chalmers, Darrell Arthur, Cole Aldrich
2009- UNC 1st rd picks: Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller
2010- Duke 1st rd picks: Mason Plumlee, Miles Plumlee, Nolan Smith
2011- UCONN 1st rd picks: Kemba Walker, Jeremy Lamb
2012- Kentucky 1st rd picks: Anthony Davis(#1 overall), Michael Kidd Gilchrist(#2 overall), Terrence Jones, Marquis Teague
2013- L’Ville 1st rd picks: Gorgui Deing
2014- UCONN 1st rd picks: Shabazz NapierMost of these teams have multiple next level players on the court. Now of course all of these players don’t pan out in he NBA, but getting the scouts to take you in the first round says you were a top level college player. Since 1992 we have had exactly 4 players drafted in the first round and only two drafted in the 2nd. TJ Warren was far and away the most complete NBA ready player we’ve had in a long while, but to be in the discussion for national titles we are gonna need at least two and possibly 3 TJ Warrens on our roster in the same year. Gottfried is a good recruiter but we need to see some guys like Barber, Abu, and the Martins develop into those type of players before we can realistically say an NC State team is capable of winning the tournament.
I’ve wanted to address this for several days but haven’t had the time. While you make a fair point about talent level and how each of those national title teams had NBA first round talent on their teams I need to point a few things out.
1. Most of the years you have who was drafted in the first round the same year they won the national title but in 2006 you group it together with 2007. In fact in 2006 no one on Florida’s national championship was drafted in the first round, only in 2007. You also have 3 players from Duke in 2010 when in fact no one was drafted in the first round of the NBA that season as well, those players were drafted 1 and 2 years later. So while they technically were future NBA first round draft picks they weren’t the season they won the title, same for 2006.
2. The way you present the information it comes across as they were the only team or the most loaded team with first round draft picks for each national champion when in fact only 2 teams in the 13 years did the national champions have the most first round draft picks that season and only 5 teams were tied with the most picks. Click here for a table containing a breakdown of seasons and draft picks.
3. When you look at the table you’ll see that where talent is a good thing to have, it can provide you with a higher ceiling, that’s all it does. What you do with that talent in college, production, is the only thing that matters for winning a college national championship, not what an NBA scout thinks you have potential for in the NBA.
4. You say NC State must have 2 or 3 future NBA players on the team at the same time and that’s a false assumption, IF you have the right coach. There have been 6 teams in the last 13 seasons that won the national title and only had at most 1 player drafted in the first round that same season. In fact having 5 draft picks in 2010 didn’t help Kentucky or 4 draft picks in 2012 for UNC.
I think I stated very clearly several times in the article that nothing is absolute and a 25% chance of winning is far from guaranteed. I even pointed out that those with a +30 ODS aren’t perfect but a 63% of winning it all is better than relying on “luck”.
Luck is when preparation meets opportunity. The teams with high ODS’ have prepared and performed throughout the season to put themselves in the best position to win when the opportunity has presented itself.
If the NCAAT was starting right now I’d put 90% of my money on Kentucky because they are 33.5 ODS. I’d rule out Wisconsin because of their DE (96.5), it’s way too high to win it all. Not saying they can’t but no one has had a DE above 92.9 and won it in the last 13 seasons. The “dark horses” on my list AT THIS MOMENT: Arizona, Gonzaga, Villanova, and Utah, in that order. I’m ruling out UVA at the moment due to the loss of Anderson.
Nice work and outstanding explanations of the various esoteric terms.
I really like the approach of developing an objective measuring stick and then using it to measure State’s performance. I did that a number of different ways during the Herb era…and boy did the HSSS squeal when State consistently came up short. (Though none of my analyses were anywhere near as complicated).
Thanks. It’s definitely an honor to receive such praise from you. I predict many on here will be coming out of the woodwork come Part 3. I also have something shocking to present about a certain eventual HOF coach.
Balance is clearly very important.
But a hot hand can send you packing even with incredible balance.
Match-ups, to me, are the real story come tourney time.
In a 1-and-done tournament a hot hand or favorable matchup can produce an upset but when you have 10 of the last 13 national champions start the NCAAT in the Top 5 ODS in the country then matchups don’t really have much to do with becoming a Champion.
Jig, good stuff here. When do we get to see our guys’ stats? That’s really what we’ll want to compare right?
Part II will look at the rounds of Sweet 16 through Runner up before heading into the finale, Part III, which will hit more at home for NC State.
but it was our big men who made the difference IMHO. Workman-like on the glass and kept Harrell quiet and talking to himself all day.
Someone please correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe I read in an article that Louisville was 16th in the nation in rebounding margin. We won that battle 47-37. Given the recent (or even season long) struggles on the boards, winning the rebounding battle against Louisville was a surprising key to victory. Very impressive … what a difference it makes in a game.
Freeman’s stats were not gaudy, but I felt he gave us a defensive and rebounding presence that we haven’t had in some time on the interior. Watching a replay of the game, I almost cried with joy seeing guys stay disciplined and boxing out as opposed to haphazardly flying through the air in hopes of getting a board or a blocked shot.
Most people know how much I hate the stat “rebounding margin” so here’s a better way to look at yesterday:
– Louisville is 53rd in the country in Offensive Rebounding Percentage (35.2%) and 173rd in Defensive Rebounding Percentage (69%), or giving up 31.0% OR to the opposition.
– Prior to the State game Louisville had OR% = 35.8% and DR% = 69.1, or giving up 30.9% OR to the opposition.
– In yesterday’s game Louisville had 24.4% OR% and 66.7% DR%.State held Louisville 11.4% below it’s OR% avg and 2.4% below it’s DR% avg.
– NCSU is 83rd in the country in OR% (34.0) and 137th in DR (69.7), or 30.3% OR opp.
– Prior to yesterday’s game NCSU had OR = 34.1% and DR = 69.2%, or 30.8% OR opp.
– In yesterday’s game NCSU had OR = 33.3% and DR = 75.6%Louisville held NCSU 0.8% below it’s OR avg and but gave up 6.4% above their DR avg.
What does that mean?
NC State was much better at defensive rebounding both what they’ve done over the season as well against Louisville’s OR season avg. Thus NCSU really stepped it up on the defensive end which translated into less second chance opportunities for the Cards. Double Positive result.
NC State was slightly below their season OR avg but was still better against Louisville’s DR season average. Thus NCSU, while not improving on their season average did show they were they better rebounding team on that end of the court in relation to how both teams have played this season. State didn’t get more second chance opportunities than they normally do but Louisville gave up more to State than what they usually do. Positive Result.
from E$pin….
….(today’s win)… comes on the road. And it’s only the 3rd time since the turn of the century ( jiggs… that’s 2000 not 1900… )that the Wolfpack have picked up a road win vs an AP Top 10 squad. The other two instances came in the 2001-02 season under coach [HWNSNBM].
NC State Road Wins vs AP Top 10 – Last 15 Seasons
Opponent Score
Today 9 Louisville 74-65
2001-02 4 Virginia 81-74
2001-02 9 Syracuse 82-68So the comparisons are against HWSNBN and Lowe, who is arguably the worst coach ever in the history of sports?
Don’t think I’m poo-poo’ing the win. I’m not. I’m happy they won, it beats losing. Lets enjoy it but don’t read more into it than what it is. Its an upset road win against a top notch team by a team that’s struggling to get back to .500 in the conference.
Jigs…I turned 61 yesterday. WTF happened to you, that has turned you in to such a crochety old f#ck?
Not crotchety, just don’t let them affect me emotionally. I cheer, I swear I won’t bother wasting time on them and yet I still come back to watch every time. I’ve simply removed myself from it emotionally enough to recognize the same show over and over again to the point that one game doesn’t change the past results. Duplicate this effort, win or lose, and then I’ll start to get excited about what ifs.
Anyone who says they weren’t expecting this squad to blow the lead today is either lying or hopelessly delusional. Today it went there way, doesn’t mean they are right nor me wrong. This is a bubble team until they prove otherwise and as such there will continue to be ups and downs.
Someone took a pic of me the other day at the theater, this is my good side…
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>mak4dpak wrote:</div>
No doubt about it, after beating Louisville, on their court, Gottfried certainly needs to be fired, because he can’t coach, and his team certainly doesn’t play defense. Great win, when the guys show up to play, we can beat anyone, anywhere. Again, when the team shows up, and does what they are coached to do. Go Pack!Yeah, good idea calling out people. Cuz that always changes peoples minds.
Its also ignorant of the fact that when a team Gottfried recruited continuously doesn’t play hard and/or smart in games is a sign he is failing at part of his job.
VaWolf said it in his latest article that it won’t take much for those on the bubble to move up, the question is who will. Lots of season left and one upset doesn’t change who this team is with all the bad habits they have. They were in this spot for a reason, lets not forget that. Enjoy the win and hope that the team learned something today that when you continue to attack the basket instead of jacking up quick shots then you improve your chances. Throughout the first half they’d revert to that bad habit and I was waiting for them to do it again several times in the second but color me shocked when they didn’t. Good for the team. Now go out there again and again and show you’ve truly learned it.
With all the doom and gloom, one would think we’re being dominated. Down by one at the half, and shutting down Harrell. Not bad! We must being doing something right. Go Pack! Joe Lenardi says a win today, puts us in the tourney. Here’s hoping.
You can live in your Candyland delusional world and we’ll live in our realistic one.
I see my new second favorite team (Dayton) won again today. I know what replacement team I’ll be pulling for this NCAAT.
Infidel. The Shadow Pack ™ is 25-0!
Cal can kiss my arse for not being stupid enough to work for Foulup.
I see my new second favorite team (Dayton) won again today. I know what replacement team I’ll be pulling for this NCAAT.
I feel really bad that the military has to watch so many of our games.
Maybe they use it as enhanced interrogation?
