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Since last season’s UConn team was one of the exceptions to the rule, I wonder if there’s a way to differentiate their ODS from the regular season and AAC tournament and the delta in the NCAA tournament alone? I wonder if there’s a specific spike in the NCAA tourney games?
Eh, no matter … they were a 7-seed and Napier went off for them.
KP now has pre-tournament data and I hope to get it included in part 3. If not I’ll work on it for next year when I revisit it before the NCAAT. I have looked at the champions and most increase by 2 points through the 6 wins but I think last year UConn increased by 4. Surprisingly that wasn’t the biggest, is was one of the Florida years that increased the most by around 7 points.
I love what you are doing here Jig. Have you thought about analyzing all the underachieving teams and seeing if there is a common denominator? For instance, you mentioned Gonzaga as typically being an early out. I just looked at kenpom and their ODS is currently 26, which is 6th best in the country. However, their SOS is 85th which is significantly lower than all other teams around them. Is this something that we could consistently look at to say that their ODS might be higher because of a lack of quality opponents?
Incredible stuff. Is there any point in cross-referencing the ODS info with a team’s tourney seeding? In other words, would there be a telling difference if two teams with similar ODS’s were ranked as a 5 seed vs. a 6 seed? Could this tell you if you’re a 5 seed with an ODS of 19, you have a much better chance of E8 appearance than a 6 seed with an ODS of 19?
Just curious.
I’ve thought about a lot of things over the last year of working this series, its just a matter of time to be able to invest. I needed to complete what I had or another year would have passed. Using KP’s adjusted efficiencies helps eliminate any SOS bias but that doesn’t help said team when they haven’t competed at a much higher level for most of the season. Remember VaWolf’s talk about mid-majors gaming the system to have higher SOS but never really playing those top teams? That works well to get you in the NCAAT but you can’t hide forever.
Exactly how fluid is the adjODS, compared to the “raw” ODS?
Like tempo, I average each team’s efficiency by game. The other way to do this would be to take a team’s total points on the season and divide it by total possesions. But this gives some games more weight than others depending on the number of possessions in a particular contest, and I don’t like that. Also, I only use games involving two D-I teams.
The raw numbers are computed from the data contained in a box score. But then there’s the matter of adjusting for competition. The “adjusted” numbers (AdjO, AdjD as AdjT) are the results of these calculations.
AdjO – Adjusted offensive efficiency – An estimate of the offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I defense.
Basically he’s compensating for SOS by adjusting to the average team. Its his secret sauce formula so I don’t know his equations but it eliminates racking up great efficiencies against weak competition and not being penalized when playing top teams.
Va, If I have the time I’ll get the R64 numbers done to have a complete historical look at the tournament but it’ll likely be awhile since Part 3 will take priority. Anyone who has watched this team knows putting together more than 1 good game is a stretch for this squad.
PPF, yes Part 3 will be the last one and it will evaluate and compare coaches and depending on if I have enough time will incorporate the pre-tournament ODS to possibly help be a predictive tool. No guarantees on that.
VaWolf,
Please edit away. I’ve been working on this for so long, putting it away and coming back again and again with so many rewrites that it can become just a tad bit confusing with all the edits. A fresh pair of eyes is always welcome. The hardest part isn’t the data, that’s just time-consuming, it’s finding the best way to present the information that makes the most sense to those who aren’t as familiar with statistics. I appreciate the assistance.
SFN – Parts 1/2 should help when evaluating teams prior to the tournament but it’ll take the pre-tourney data I have for Part 3 to bring that all together since 1/2 have the final numbers and most teams have to play 2-3 ODS points better through 6 games to win it all. Still it’s a useful tool to try and eliminate the obvious ones. Here’s something to help with this year’s picks…Don’t get caught up in the Gonzaga hype. Since 2002 they have reached the S16 a grand total of 2x. They have ended their season in the R32 the last 5 years and 8 out of the last 13. You’d probably be better off not having them past the S16 but I’ll likely have them out at R32.
So we’ve seen plenty of bashing of Gott’s ability to coach a team that plays good defense.
State has given up the 7th fewest ppg (65.2) in the conference, which is slightly better than average.
State has the 8th best defensive rating (92.05) in the conference — exactly middle of the conference.
State has the 6th best net rating (+21.79), behind only UVA, Duke, UNC, Lousiville, ND.In this closing stretch, they have held 5 of 6 opponents to 65 points or fewer, and they are 4-1 in those games.
Is anyone yet willing to give Gott and staff any credit for improved defense?
Meanwhile, State has still been solid on offense:
State is 4th in the conference in ppg (70.6).
State has the 5th best offensive rating (113.84) in the conference.Like all fans, I want more wins and better performance. But it just seems that a lot of State fans have made up their minds that Gott is the wrong guy, and they fit all results into that predetermined perspective. As they say, haters gonna hate.
1. Giving up less points per game does not equal a better defense, especially when comparing to previous seasons. An easy way to give up less PPG is to slow down the tempo giving teams fewer possessions. If you aren’t doing the slowing down then the other team could be the one doing it by trying to stay close, i.e. Bennett, Sendek, etc.
2. Not sure where your numbers are coming from but middle of the conference isn’t bad, it isn’t good either.
3. Again, not sure where your numbers are coming from but net rating doesn’t equal good defense, just the difference between offense and defense.
4. Again holding opponents under 65 points doesn’t equate to a good defense. Over those 5 games did State hold those 5 teams under their seasonal averages in points, offensive efficiency, four factors? I don’t know but looking at the Clemson/State game CU was under their seasonal averages for Adj. ORtg, efg% and FTRate but had a lower TO% on offense and had a higher OR%. So in 1 of those games State made it more difficult for Clemson in some ways but not all.As for improved defense State currently is 5pts lower than last year’s final Adj. DRtg and 0.5 pts lower than the previous year’s but historically this team is less than a point away from the average Adj. DRtg for teams under Gottfried since 2002. Let’s not go overboard here touting Gottfried for “improved” defense. It’s only improved because last year’s defense was so awful you can’t get much worse. It’s like trying to compare Gottfried to Lowe, sure he’s an improvement but that’s a pretty low bar you’re using.
Tau,
The numbers used are adjusted efficiencies so these are the actual current numbers:
Adj OE: 111.6
Adj DE: 97.9
ODS: 13.7So the numbers show we are a clear “First Weekend Team” unless they overachieve.
After that first half and then you start the second half with 2 TO’s and give up 2 easy baskets at the rim if I was coaching this team I’d pull a Roy and just sit back and stop coaching.
Don’t forget that under Dr. Heimlich (Gottfried) State has erased a deficit of more than 10 points on the road only twice and only won 1 of those (13pts @Pitt 2013/14).
Just food for thought when you want to decide if watching the second half is worth your time or doing anything would be better.
It’s either (Scenario #1) get a big lead and blow it or (Scenario #2) get behind by playing completely dysfunctional for the first half. Seen this show before, the only unknown with this team is which one will it be. Well they’ve answered it and we have scenario #2. Now the question is will this continue for the entire game?
This sequence says it all for today:
Washington and Freeman under the basket, Freeman with the ball. Washington ask for the ball, hands up. Freeman passes it right to Washington’s hands and it goes right through them for a TO.
Nice sportmanship Lacey!!
screw sportsmanship. This is the holes, you dunk that like it’s the last shot you’re ever going to take.
just walk off the court now so you can save us all the pain of watching them blow yet ANOTHER double digit lead.
stupid wolfpack showed up for 3 straight possessions, hopefully they got it out of their system with that sequence.
jeebus anya. totally clueless
you know roy will light into them at half and they come out on fire. i’m guessing with some favorable officiating as well.
We’ve never seen a 3pt attempt we didn’t like.
you mean there’s something other than a 3?
