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It was a disappointing performance by most of the team and coaching staff but it’s not a shock to anyone who has watched this team at all this season. They had amazing potential and showed it at various times throughout the season but equally could fall back into bad habits and fall flat. Not shocked in the least in how the tournament played out, what is surprising they got past LSU.
The announcer bias is making me cra$ y.
Turn the channel, worked for me.
Choke the best chance they might ever see to get part the sweet sixteen.
It’s what we do best.
I turned it.
Ano they disappointment.
I told the kids they are idiots to pull for ncsu.
Nothing but heart acheNever believe we’re going to win and you won’t be disappointed.
I thought it was just me with Vern’s bias so I thought I’d come on here to see if I was just imagining it. Nope.
You left out the Blacklist on NBC at 9pm.
Almost caught up with the season.
Can someone explain the Angel of Death nickname for KW?
I remember someone pointed out that when KW scored a lot of points for State no one else on the team did and we lost. I think BJD called him the Angel of Death at that point and a few people repeated it during the next game where it stuck.
I wanted to tie in this weekend’s games back to the ODS articles by taking a look to see how those who made the R32 did compared to the last 13 seasons as well as looking to see what we should expect from the weekend games.
Looking at teams who reached the Round of 32 in the past I discovered when you set the bottom ODS value at -1Sigma (11.4) the average number of teams that fall below 11.4 and make it came out to 2.5 teams, the maximum number in a year was 4 in 3 different years. In 2015 there were 2 teams with a value below 11.4 that made it to the Round of 32: Georgia St. (9.9) and UAB (3.7), well within the norms.
Here’s a little bit of 411 to pass along, the 3rd lowest ODS value this year to advance to the R32 was 12.7 and that was done by 2 teams: Cincinnati and NC State. Since NC State entered the tournament with an ODS value of 13.6, they shockingly moved on by playing worse but when a team is determined to give you the game it would be rude to turn it down.
Now looking at teams to move on to the Sweet 16, we set the bottom ODS value at -1Sigma (14.4) for teams to advance. Using 14.4 there was an average of 1.2 upsets, or teams below 14.4 that advanced to the S16, with a maximum of 3 teams below 14.4 in 2012. Using this information we can expect up to 3 teams below 14.4 to advance and here are the list of 9 teams which meet this criteria and their ODS values:
(8) San Diego St. (14.3)
(4) Maryland (13.9)
(8) Oregon (13.1)
(11) Dayton (12.9)
(11) UCLA (12.9)
(8) Cincinnati (12.7)
(8) NC State (12.7)
(14) Georgia St. (9.9)
(14) UAB (3.7)I don’t know about the rest of you but something sticks out more to me than 14 seeds Georgia St. and UAB in that list and that’s the Twerps. For a team that is seeded 4th they sure haven’t been playing very good lately.
With UCLA/UAB squaring off against each other we are guaranteed 1 of the 9 teams to advance and thus satisfy the average over the last 13 years. Since Maryland has such a favorable seeding they are the likeliest of those remaining teams to advance but they still have to face WVU who should be favored in that game in my opinion. With all the 8 seeds having to play 1 seeds it’s highly unlikely, not impossible just unlikely, any of them will advance. I wouldn’t count out Dayton either, the Fightin’ Archies are a tough bunch and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them take down Oklahoma.
I was going to take the time to respond to each of your “points” but why? You pulled out the “not a real fan” card and once someone has played that it’s pointless discussing anything with them because they have nothing to stand on or any intellectual honesty.
A friend put this on my office door at work. Can you imagine?
I’d put it up on your door laughing the entire time just because I’d know it to be the opposite of reality.
So wait, LSU pulls a State, snatches defeat from the jaws of victory and I’m supposed to give Gottfried credit? Please show me where one game, which btw my article clearly shows they were above the -1Sigma line to reach the Round of 32, negates everything over the last 13 years.
They gotta guard us too Pal!!!
Gott no longer gets two years for sure. He gets one. Something special or GTFO.
You know where I stand on our first weekend Coach.
I love how people are holding out hope that State will get back into this if they just play better defense.
MUAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Hey guys. Out of the country but want to watch to 2nd half. Nothing is working… Any ideas?
Yeah, find something else to do. Anything else.
I’ll believe it when I see it BJD. Say we look at just the last 8 games, dating back to the Louisville game where they have gone 6-2 since the “change”. If we look at just the good (wins) then we see: OE (112.3), DE (94.4), ODS (17.9). That’s an improvement but still not even in the top 84% of teams that make the E8. But we can’t forget about the bad during this time: OE (96.7), DE (130.0), ODS (-33.3). That isn’t just bad, that’s FUGLY.
So the best they’ve played over the last 8 games they are still only considered a S16 team instead of a R32 team.
If we look at all the games during that time: OE (108.5), DE (103.0), ODS (5.5) then we don’t even have a R32 team.
If State plays like their “best” basketball since their change then they have the potential to be a S16 team but they are equally capable of laying another egg and getting bounced in the first round to a 16 seed. Here’s my point, I’m sure if we went back and looked at an 8 game stretch during any of MG’s teams we can find a good run, the problem is it’s not consistent and his good is very close to his best.
I’ll reiterate what VaWolf has said in the past few weeks, Gottfried is the coach of NC State and that’s not changing in the next couple of years and I’m always pulling for State to succeed; but MG hasn’t changed his stripes in umpteen years and I’ll believe he has when I see tangible results that last longer than 3 weeks.
I think we already have a pretty good idea about Gott. Here’s to hoping that Years 5 and 6 will change my view.
THIS!!!!
For me, the key point of 1.2JW’s work is that it provides solid basis for what a lot of people have said about Gott’s teams….the offense is good and the defense/rebounding definitely isn’t. While it takes no particular insight to reach those conclusions, the numbers presented in these three entries show just how far off the mark Gott’s teams have been.
Thanks VaWolf, that’s exactly how it started. I questioned Gottfried’s teams and I had my hypothesis where they are good on offense but the defense is what’s holding us back. At that point I went out to try and prove it wrong by starting at the beginning of What do all the champions have in common? (Part I). When I could clearly see it was the defense that separated Gottfried from the upper echelon then I moved on to, If Gottfried isn’t near a national championship then where is he? So I moved on to the second part of finding out where everyone else in the NCAAT ended up losing. (Part II) Now I could compare MG to the field over the last 13 seasons and get an accurate assessment of what kind of coach he had been during that time frame. (Part III)
I understand this can be some high level stuff and believe me it’s difficult to explain to those who haven’t learned about statistical tools but what needs to be taken away is Don’t discount the numbers. People may not want to believe the numbers but that doesn’t make them inaccurate. I’m not saying I’ve developed some magic formula for success, quite the opposite, I’m simply laying out an emotion free case for what to expect from Gottfried as well as the realistic likelihood of advancement into the NCAAT for any team, especially NC State. Too many people fall back on ’83 as a reason to hold out all hope and I’m all for hope but let’s be realistic about what we have. There are no guarantee’s but I laid it out in graph/table form that the better you do offensively and defensively the better chances you have to advance and if you are really low then those chances are almost non-existent.
This isn’t a sexy series for an article, I could have simply thrown up there that Gottfried sucks at defense and so and so coach is better and let the lowest common denominator win out. Instead I wanted to back up what many people already felt with cold, hard facts. If State wants to move on to the second weekend consistently, making runs to the Final Four and beyond, then Gottfried is going to have to change, IMPROVE, and it has to start with defense.
Reading on my phone so didn’t really examine the charts and tables. But the biggest issue that leads me to doubt the validity of this method from your writeup is the reference to two runner up caliber teams from HWSNBN.
It would be interesting to use this method to examine deep runs by “Cinderella” teams past like UConn (recent), Butler (recent), Nova ’85, Pack ’83, etc.
Maybe it’s not the validity in question but rather the coach??
FYI the teams in question were…
1. 2004 (23.8) R32 loss to Vanderbilt with Hodge, Evtimov, Atsur, Melvin, Sherrill, Watkins, Bennerman.
2. 2009 (20.7) R32 loss to Syracuse with Harden and Pendergraph.Looks like a big waste of talent to me by a coach who can’t adjust in a game.
As for Cinderella’s I already examined UConn and Butler in the previous parts. If KenPom posted data all the way back to 83 then trust me I’d have analyzed it already.
I believe I mentioned in Part II, if not the main article then in the comments section, that Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted efficiencies are based on a team playing at that moment against the average defense. He’s stated his numbers are not a mean average of the season but rather how is the team playing at that moment in order to provide a predictor of the next game vs. how they’ve done over the season. When he say’s our AOE = 112 and our ADE = 98 then that’s how we’re playing at the moment.
There will always be exceptions to the rule, what I’ve laid out is a look removing the least likely chances of making each round. Nothing is preventing the Pack, or any team, from playing better and increasing their ODS and thus improving their chances to advance further into the tournament but the Pack are what their stats say they are, a weak first weekend team, and Gottfried doesn’t have a history of being a tournament coach making runs further than 1 round beyond their predictive value.
Doesn’t everyone know it’s NC State fans fault he is doing so bad at ASU??? If us horrible, unrealistic fringe group of fans hadn’t fired him then he’d have continued going to the NCAAT year after year at NC State. We are always the cause for him doing bad no matter where he is.
I ain’t GOTT time to do this right so here’s the short version…
OUR DEFENSE is BETTER NOW THAN AT ANY POINT PREVIOUS THIS SEASON…
Why… because it is…
and averages SUCK…Here’s the one thing NONE of the stats show us…
There are three seasons in a season …
Nov- Jan2
Jan2 – Feb1
Feb2 – ACC Tournament…OK… ya’ll GOTT that?
Now… everybody’s players are developing/improving on both ends of the court…
and everybody’s TEAM is playing more together at the end of the season than at the beginning..
(except Louisville)…Then in the Feb sub season… you’re playing Teams in the conference that for the most part you have already played one time…
so everybody knows everybody else better…Lacey had a great first half of the season… but nobody, except us, knew what Lacey could do and he was off the radar with opposing coaches so to speak… Since Feb2… Lacey has not surprised anybody… every opposing coach is thinking the way to beat State is shut Lacey down… so they adjust… and Lacey’s numbers come down…
It’s that simple… a whole season average does not tell us anything in this regard…
For the stat guys… There are three dynamic curves working at the same time more or less independent one of the other…
1. Player Development
2. Team Development
3. Coach’s game adjustments…Work those into your stats and get back to me… with average Defense efficiency for each of three sub seasons.
OR if you are lazy … do this…
Create a dynamic rating factor that indexes three variables…
1. The Opponents Win/Loss record the morning of each game…
2. The number of field goals our defense allowed during the game..
3. The number of times the opponent scored three goals in a row without us scoring…Put that on a graph and post it…
thanks…
Let me quote Ken Pomeroy…
The first thing you should know about this system is that it is designed to be purely predictive. If you’re looking for a system that rates teams on how “good” their season has been, you’ve come to the wrong place. There are enough systems out there that rank teams based on what is “good” by just about any definition you can think of. So I’d encourage you to google college basketball ratings or even try the opinion polls for something that is more your style.
The purpose of this system is to show how strong a team would be if it played tonight, independent of injuries or emotional factors. Since nobody can see every team play all (or even most) of their games, this system is designed to give you a snapshot of a team’s current level of play.
Seams to me KP already has done that by developing a system that uses actual measurements. So when KP says that State’s Adj. Defensive efficiency is 97.9 today then that’s how “good” their defense is right now, not their seasonal average.
