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Nicole Auerbach (usatoday)
Jim Larranaga’s use of analytics gives Miami secret weaponHe doesn’t remember how and when and why he was introduced to the world of advanced statistics.
He turns to his long-time assistant Chris Caputo in the hallway and asks about the first time they found kenpom.com, a website devoted to college basketball analytics. Caputo can’t remember, either. Maybe five years ago? Definitely after their staff discovered Synergy Sports, video-scouting software that compiles intricately detailed data on every team from every game situation imaginable.
[snip]
“If I’m going to be good, I’m going to judge myself against other players who are really, really good,” Larranaga said. He carried that into coaching. As an assistant at Virginia, he charted the performances of various lineups to figure out the most effective group of five. Compare, compare, compare. Then go with what works. Video might show him that now. Or a sheet of numbers from kenpom.com.
The use of such tools has propelled Miami to unprecedented success in the Atlantic Coast Conference this season. The Hurricanes’ 13-0 start in league play was the best of any team since 1998-99, and a win Saturday at No. 3 Duke would clinch the ACC regular-season title in this, Larranaga’s second year with the team.
“The thing with Coach is, as long as he’s been doing this, he’s never stopped learning,” Caputo said. “You’re looking, searching for things that will give you a bit of an edge. I think it was just word of mouth — there’s no great story.
“Looking at a team on a sheet, it’s a concise way of understanding. … A lot of times, you ask someone how they did on a test. They say, ‘Good.’ Well, what does that mean? A ‘C’? That’s pretty good, right? Not if everybody in the class got an ‘A’. Or I got a ‘C’, but everybody failed the test. You try to see the things you value … and then see where that ranks within your league and nationally. That tells you what your team is like.”
The Miami players hear about advanced statistics more than they see the numbers themselves. They aren’t given statistical printouts; they don’t get bogged down in the details. Their coaches tell them the important ones. This team is 50th in tempo, that team is 300th. This one is in the top 10 in offensive rebounding, that one turns the ball over on just 14% of possessions.
“They understand rank very well,” assistant coach Eric Konkol said. So the coaches toss the key stats in with normal prep work, like talking about opponents’ tendencies or watching video. Together, it provides a full picture of what the ‘Canes will be up against. Miami scouts its opponents, but it also self-scouts, tracking where it stacks up against the nation’s best to motivate itself.
Said senior Julian Gamble: “They give us those types of statistics to let us know where we are and where we need to improve. You want to be the best, and numbers don’t lie. If you say you’re not No. 1 in the country in something you want to be, you know you have something to improve on.”
Larranaga and his staff emphasize points per possession; it’s a good way to stress defense, something that players can rely on even when shots aren’t falling on a given night. On Tuesday, prior to the Virginia Tech game, Gamble recited a sentence that would please his coaches: “We’re 16-2 when we hold teams under one point per possession.” Make that 17-2 after the win over the Hokies.
Miami is ranked sixth in the country in defensive efficiency, 39th in offensive efficiency and 26th in turnover rate — all significant improvements from two seasons ago.
This lingo, while new to the Hurricanes, is far from foreign from those at George Mason, where Larranaga spent 14 seasons before coming to Miami in April 2011.
“He was innovative,” George Mason athletics director Tom O’Connor said. “He was focused on (advanced statistics), but that didn’t override the fact that he still had to go out there and teach offense and defense. It’s good to have all the statistics, and it can definitely be a major plus. I think he saw that early on. He’s always been ahead of the curve if he sees something that can help his program be successful.”
Jigs,That is good work. I imagine this is the type of information Brad Stevens used to use so effectively.Jigs is our Moneyball
I love that movie/book. I believe stats can’t tell you everything but if you don’t have the time to watch film and study a team, especially multiple teams, then tempo free stats can give you a good picture of who a team is.
I remember a story about Jim Larranaga after he took over Miami and had a team meeting asking the players what they wanted to accomplish the next year, then asked them how good they considered themselves at various things like rebounding. The answers all came back they thought they did pretty good, that’s when Jim broke out their Offensive Rebounding and Defensive Rebounding Rates and showed them they were one of the worst in the country. Then he showed them the rebounding rates of the final four teams and that drove the message home. The next year Miami’s rebounding rate increased dramatically because the players were now focused on it and had a quantifiable measurement of what was actually good.
Here’s a look at how each team has performed this year up to their sudden change in direction over the last 5 or 6 games.
First let’s look at NC STATE:
The pace of State’s games has slowed down dramatically which hasn’t been a negative.
The positives are State has been extremely efficient with the ball on offense in every phase, shooting, less turnovers, more offensive rebounding, and getting to the free throw line more which could also be a result of the team making more front ends of 1-and-1’s.
The negatives are the opposition has been more efficient as well (if you take away Duke’s outrageous ACCT game against the Pack the efficiency has actually gone down, thus the effect of a large number in such a small sample size), though not nearly enough to catch State. The opposition has been shooting the ball better and turning the ball over less but the Pack has actually reduced their offensive rebounding some and not sent them to the free throw line as much. Basically reducing the oppositions opportunity to score.
Now a look at SLU:
As you’d expect from a team on a losing streak the Billikens are struggling and in just about every facet of the game. Their only positives are more offensive rebounding and they haven’t been sending the opposition to the free throw line as much. The rest though, it’s been pretty bad. On offense their production has dropped, not shooting the ball as well, turning the ball over more, getting to the free throw line less. On defense their opponents are shooting the ball much better, forcing a lot less turnovers, and not getting as many defensive rebounds.
Here’s a look at what the players have done before and during the last 5 games:
– McCall has the hot hand, let’s keep an eye out for him tonight.
– Barnett is playing better but he’s not effecting the outcome of games. Here’s the thing with Barnett, he’s only shooting 3’s lately, nothing else. That’s a key on defending this guy.
– Jett is pretty much the same, a little worse but still pretty much the same. This guy is a TO machine.
– Evans isn’t shooting the ball as well and has been prone to turn the ball over of late.
– Loe & McBroom are really struggling, in every way. Loe is ice cold in shooting 3’s lately and has been turning the ball over.St. Louis Basketball is so big that I couldn’t find a single blog to try and glean any first hand information on this team.
I’d plant V or KH in the middle of the paint on defense to stop any drives around screens. As for guarding the 3 there are Only 4 to concentrate on, McCall, Barnett, Loe, and McBroom. Can’t afford to go below screens and allow them to get their confidence back.
Nothing has been released yet, but I’m sure something will be known by the end of the first game this afternoon.
And Jigs, when you have time to crunch some more numbers, I’d be interested in knowing what our offensive FG%, turnovers, PPG are against top-50 competition. OUr offensive efficiency has skyrocketed late in the year.
Guys I’m serious when I say I’m slammed. These previews take up all my free time, what little I have.
Bill/Whiteshoes, the information you’re looking for can be found here. It’s not KenPom’s numbers but they are close enough and it’s free. Good luck.
Jiggs…
When you have some time… let’s play with that spreadsheet of yours… I’m curious….
Let make this new metric….
(Points scored + Rebounds + Assists + Blocks + Steals ) Minus Turnovers = ProductionPointsThen look back at what you did yesterday to find guys who scored in double figures in last ten games and change that to guys who had double digit “ProductionPoints” in the last eleven games… sorted H-L same as yesterday…
I don’t have that kind of time. Between job, family, next game previews, and everything else I have going on there’s just not enough time. What I can tell you is most of what you’re asking for is Offensive Efficiency and that can be found in several locations.
Great find by Austin Johnson:
State has now moved to 17-1 (L is at Cuse) when it gives up less than 1.05 points per possession defensively. 5-12 when it gives up more.
Again, it’s not that the Pack needs a shutdown defense but an average one would mean the difference between last team in and Top 25 team.
Good morning Jiggs… and the rest of you guys….
It’s a nice day, isn’t it?
It’s always a nice day after a Pack win.
The Pack did a great job last night, just a complete game all around. The Pack’s offense was better then their yearly average and better than Xavier’s defensive averages, while the Pack’s defense was better than their yearly averages and holding Xavier well below their average offensive efficiency. I was actually shocked to see how poorly the Pack were at offensive rebounding last night but even though they only grabbed 6 OR they had 12 second chance points. Pretty dang good fellas.
Numerous Pack players contributed in so many ways and it all added up to the 15 point victory. I hope the Pack remembers what a complete game on both ends of the floor looks like now and how defensive rebounding and steals helps create easy baskets. YMCA (Stainbrook) didn’t disappoint me last night in my prognostication that he is Xavier’s MVP. The Pack defense did a great job harrassing Christon and Martin and holding them far below their normal efficiency.
Some people just can’t let it go…
@DanWolken: NC State has no business being in the NCAA Tournament, but they will probably beat Saint Louis on Thursday.
If KH isn’t bringing his arms down he’s moving that big body into the shooter. Both will get you a foul.
Can we please put these guys away?
JIggs… FREEMAN needs a couple of baskets…
So does Lee
From what I can tell so far the refs call fouls if it relates to the ball but ignoring all the pushing and shoving off the ball. It’s like all 3 refs are watching the guy with the ball.
I notice them complaining on offense but not a peep out of them on defense while body checking State every time someone is moving without the ball.
bill, yeah I doubt I’ll have the time to do it properly so we’ll just say if TJ scores A LOT and he gets help from everyone else then the Pack should win. 🙂
