Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
^eccdogg, yes but over the last 11 years how many teams have been able to have that combination and get to the FF? Just 2 and both are this year. That’s an unrealistic plan for reaching the FF. When the offense isn’t clicking what will you have to fall back on? State doesn’t need the #1 defense but they can’t have just a slightly better than average one either, not if the goal is to reach the FF and thus a title.
^85EE, but defense just doesn’t get better on it’s own. And if Gottfried is basing his improvement on better talent then what happens when players transfer or recruiting slides for any reason? That’s a clear recipe for disaster.
Tau37,
Here’s from the free section of Scout.com on the last 3 recruiting classes by Gott:
2015
Abu: Abu slots as a skilled utility forward. He’s a lively athlete and moves very well for a 6-8, 235-pound physical specimen, and his aggression pays off on both ends. He retrieves caroms for putbacks, muscles his way up as a finisher to score and draw trips to the foul line, and he’s also a scrapper on the backboard. He’s very effective as a high post shooter, smoothly knocking down 15-footers from the elbow. He does need to improve his defense. (Sounds like recruited for offense to me)Caleb Martin: Martin is a fine jump shooter with effortless three-point range. He fires in jumpers with an easy, mechanically sound stroke that should translate very well to the collegiate level. He also has broad shoulders and has become significantly stronger over the past couple years. With a college strength and conditioning regimen — along with a first step that’s now markedly quicker — he should be able to incorporate a driving game with his shooting. (Sounds like recruited for offense to me)
Cody Martin: No free information available
2014
Anya: A true old school center, Anya is comfortable in the paint and likes to throw his body around down low. Anya is a good rebounder and is very strong. He has extremely long arms which makes up for being a little bit short. Still needs to run the floor better and show the desire to be great at all times. With that said, Anya is one of the most productive players in the class down low. (I’d agree defense)Freeman: No free information. Late addition and project player.
Washington: No free information but was the worst defender in the front court. He was clearly all for offense.
Barber: Barber has the natural ability to be one of the best in the class. He has good size for a point guard and is an excellent athlete. Very few players are faster with the ball and get into the lane with the ease he does. His outside shot does need some work. Know as “Cat”, Barber is one of the premier floor leaders going in this class. (He was recruited to run the offense but his speed/athleticism are pluses for being able to defend)
Lee: No free information available. His JUCO stats showed he was a high volume 3 point shooter and State was losing their lone 3 point shooter to graduation. He was recruited for his offense.
Turner: No free information available. I’d compare how he plays defense but that would indicate he actually tried.
2013
Warren: Sometimes it can look like Warren is coasting, but he has a great skill set. A wing with a thick strong body, Warren can really shoot it from deep and knows how to create for himself despite not being a superior athlete for the position. He’s also starting to develop a mid-range game and he has great touch on his pull-ups and floaters. (Sounds like offense to me)Purvis: One of the best guards in the 2012 class, Purvis is a guy that can play both lead guard and scoring guard. Currently classified as a point guard, Purvis has terrific vision and is a talented passer. With that said, he’s a high-level scorer as well, that can put the ball in the basket in a variety of ways. His end-to-end speed and athleticism is what stands out the most and he’s a terrific finisher once near the rim. (Sounds like offense to me but his speed/athleticism would be necessary for a good defender, just like Barber)
Lewis: One of the top players in his class in North Carolina. Heady leader who has command of his team. Will distribute the basketball and has superior court vision. Jumper improves each season. Size, defensive ability are long term factors. However, Lewis continues to elevate his play. No matter the talent level on the floor, he plays a big role and incorporates his teammates into the game. Gifted young guard. (Sounds like offense to me)
You mention several times about expecting players to become good defensive players. How? Osmosis? If players don’t arrive with sound fundamentals then where are they going to learn them from? It has to be from the coaching staff. So the defensive results are a direct reflection of the coaching staff.
it sounds like a lawyer proving his point but may neglect some pieces of logic. If Gott improves his player personnel, do both lines track upward, offense moves well into FF quality and defense moves up into the low end for FF quality? I hope so. I guess a few more years will tell us, not next but the year after and from then on, I would hope to see both curves higher. But data does show where the focus is, and where it needs to increase.
What have I neglected? I included 9 seasons of 2 teams he has coached and not once has he produced results that come close to entering FF territory on defense? He had plenty of time to improve personnel and implement a defensive system at Bama but that never improved. He hasn’t exactly been lacking in personnel at State, in fact I’d say the talent level at State has been better since day one then any season at Bama. Just how long does it take to improve defense with a team? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? Seriously I’d like to know because he’s had more than enough time to prove it on the court through his career and has yet to do it once. Your logic is the same as the HSSS and his improvement on offense will come years from now. My conclusion is based on actual facts. Yours is based on ignoring history and WTNY.
The question from the beginning was what does it take to reach the Final Four? I’ve presented clear data showing what the last 11 years of FF teams have had at a broad level of what it took for them. Then I compared 9 seasons of teams under Gottfried. Not once has he approached what it takes on the defensive side so again, without a clear change in defense or a fluke run Gottfried has a glass ceiling that is lower than the Final Four.
[EDIT]
List of teams NOT IN THE FF with an ORtg >110 & DRtg <95:
Arizona (E8)
Louisville (S16)
Virginia (S16)
Wichita State (R32)
Tennessee (S16)
Villanova (R32)
Syracuse (R32)
Gonzaga (R32)
SMU (NIT)DRtg <94
Arizona, Louisville, UVA, Wichita St., SyracuseDRtg <93
Arizona, Louisville, UVA2 Teams with DRtg >95:
Wisconsin & KentuckySo you see it’s not an exact science but over time you can see trends and as such if you put yourself in that position you’ll increase your chances of success.
I’m not part of the staff nor do I have a connection to it so I have absolutely no idea what they do in practice or what the coaches philosophy is when it comes to defense. All I know is what is on paper and what I see on TV and when it comes to defense we’re average and average doesn’t win championships.
We all want State to win it all and we all know the best team in the country doesn’t always win it every year but they usually make the FF. Plus remember this is a view from 30k feet up of how State looks when compared to FF teams using TFS as an indicator. There are other stats you can use and many other factors that go into how you get to this view, i.e. Coaching, Talent level, Age, Experience, Injuries, how well a team is playing come tournament time. Those are all legit ways to look at teams when you get closer to the ground to see the rooftops. Also, don’t assume that the teams that make the FF are the only teams who have a high ORtg and low DRtg, there are more teams out there who are close to the FF teams or better but other circumstances prevented them from making it to the final weekend.
This is a perfect answer:
Thoughts on “playing your best at tourny time” vs. ratings?
It takes both. In the NCAAT (especially after the first round), good teams have to beat other good teams to advance. The good teams that peak at tourney time have a distinct advantage. For instance, was anyone shocked when Syracuse was beaten in the second round?
Bill
But isn’t there a fundamental question underlying the data… ??
What’s the difference between ‘Not playing good defense’ and ‘Not able to play good defense’ ?
Whether it’s not playing or unable to play makes no difference. We’re taking a big picture look at Gottfried’s teams spaning 2 teams in 9 seasons over 11 years to see if there is a pattern when compared to teams who actually made it to the FF. Gottfried has enough of a past that we can look for patterns and draw general conclusions. When it comes to defense, who is out recruiting for defensive guys? Who is being evaluated on their defensive capabilities? Defense is taught, especially in today’s AAU age where fundamentals are sacrificed on the alter for high flying dunks and 3 point shooting.
The conclusion is as long as Gottfried continues to produce defensive results that he has always produced then short of a miracle we have already seen what he will continue to provide. Is everyone happy with a ceiling of making it to the Sweet 16, maybe Elite Eight? Because even the Cinderella teams are better defensively than Gottfried’s teams have been.
For those in the media, NCAA, unbiased investigation teams being paid by UNC, and UNC alums, just wanted to provide you with clear evidence that UNC continues not to hide behind these baseless accusations the basketball team ever participated in the AFAM scandal. Here is a picture (taken in 12/13) in the UNC Basketball HOF of the UNC Family display. I’ve highlighted in yellow a lone diploma they are displaying. If there’s only one diploma then it must be important right?
Who is this VIP? Let’s take a closer look at who this important individual is and what they received their degree in.
Jawad Williams, AFAM, 2005.
There you go. Proof positive that absolutely no cheating was going on with UNC Basketball/AFAM because there is no way UNC would promote this in their HOF since Williams was on the 2005 National Championship team. No one would be that stupid, after all that has come out, to continue to use AFAM degrees as a recruiting tool if there was any chance of cheating. RIGHT??
Now you have all the ammunition you need to tell all these Conspiracy Theorists from rival schools to stick that in their pipe and smoke it.
I don’t see how I can even give a rats ass about basketball anymore this year. There is losing and then there’s this.
Will we find a way to lose in regulation, or wait for OT?
Reg. I see a TO or they hit a game winning 3.
