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Here is some important information about injuries for both teams and Clemson’s OL from BackingthePack.
North Texas (+13.5) @Indiana
Pittsburgh (+6) @Virginia Maybe if I start picking them they’ll start losing?
Nebraska (+7.5) @Michigan State
Alabama (-6) @Ole Miss
NC State (+14.5) @Clemson Clemson will be the best, by far, defense State will play all season. Add on top of it Dabo wisened-up and put down the warm Stoudt in favor of the cool Freshman. A lot of people will say Watson can’t duplicate what he did against UNC when playing State but really, UNC and State have the same horrible defense. This is also a road game that isn’t being played in Tampa with no one there; it’s in Death Valley with a hostel crowd. All signs point to less scoring by the Pack than against FSU and equal amounts of scoring by Clemson as FSU did against State. The number of TO’s will dictate just how much above the line Clemson will finish.
Lucky/Unlucky for me several people 2 rows in front of me are standing up while I’m sitting down during the pic so it’s like I wasn’t even there.
Why does DD punt? Doesn’t matter if it’s 40 or 90 yards, our D can’t stop them anymore. We’d be better off going for it on 4th. Sure we’ll stop them occasionally but we’d score more.
Grey, that’s why it’s under the Prediction section and using a little thing I like to call Statistical Probability. I know it’s something crazy I cooked up on my own but basically what it says is this, If you continue to give a team an opportunity to score (4 more downs) then the chances said team will score Go Up!!! I know it’s just crazy talk and I simply pull this crap out of thin air but you know it seems to be a pretty good indicator over time no matter what it’s applied to.
For example, the lottery. Say you buy a lottery ticket, doesn’t mean you’re gonna win but there’s a chance. Now instead of just 1 lottery ticket you buy half the combinations of numbers. You still may not win the jackpot but your chances have increased in winning. You could win a little (FG), a lot (TD), or not at all.
Now I see with all the talk you made about NCSU’s offense we both predicted NC State would score 17. Seem’s I took this vaunted rushing attack and passing capability into account. Where you and I don’t see eye-to-eye is NC State’s defense. You apparently think NC State can hold FSU’s offense, which consist of a Heisman QB, a probable NFL WR next year, and who knows how many future NFL talent on that team to the same score as USF. I see NC State struggling on defense, based on it’s own production this season, to hold this same FSU offense to the score NC State allowed against ODU.
Missouri (+5) @South Carolina
Florida State (-19.5) @NC State
Iowa (-10) @Purdue
Mid Tenn (+3) @Old Dominion
La. Tech (+33) @Auburn
Jiggy, Maybe that should read, ‘could cost’ since we are 4-0. This is like 6 turnovers ‘could have cost’ MD the game (but it didn’t, MD won.) I say this because “Bend, not break” defense is some times a good strategy and is nearly always criticized by the fans as bad defense.
Grey, buddy, come on now, you have to know I’m referring to this stat in the future sense. If State continues to give up percentages like that against better competition it’s going to come back and bite them in the ass. Can they continue giving up 3rd and 4th downs at that rate and still win a game? Sure, they’ve done it already 3 times this season. I didn’t say it would cost them every game, I said it will cost them games. Bend but don’t break may be applied at times so you don’t get beat deep but do you really believe that’s a continuous strategy just to keep from showing their playbook to future opponents? You don’t have to gamble on every down in order to get your defense off the field as quickly as possible. These numbers show a deep flaw in the defense and will be exploited by better teams then State has played this season, it almost was already…twice.
GSU 3DC = 6-14 (43%) / 4DC = 0-1
ODU 3DC = 10-18 (56%) / 4DC = 5-6 (83%)
USF 3DC = 2-10 (20%) / 4DC = 0-0
PCU 3DC = 8-17 (47%) / 4DC = 0-1It’s not an anamoly of allowing the opposition to continue to move the chains. I’m sure there are several reasons why State is continuing to allow teams to complete third downs. I’ll have a breakdown of the 3rd and 4th down efficiencies that’ll give more insight in the FSU preview.
Grey, I’m pretty sure they missed one of Cherry’s 2 fumbles on the punt returns in the USF game. If I recall correctly he fumbled it twice, the first he recovered the second he lost.
3rd Down Pct Defense: 44.1% (11, 90)
4th Down Pct Defense: 62.5% (11, 79)This right here will cost State games.
That’s where you err.
Just because someone disagrees with you and has a different philosophy doesn’t make you right and they wrong.
Grey,
I’d enjoy a long debate with you over this but I just don’t have the time and when I do it’ll be old news at that point. So this is all I’ll be able to contribute on this game.
I looked back at the DL/OL sizes and you’re right. I must have been smoking some bad crack but I got them backwards in my head. State’s OL was 50-100 lbs bigger than PCU DL. State’s DL was the same size as PCU’s OL. So strike what I said about that and I’ll concede that point.
As for the tendencies and errors I was referring to the points I made in the first comment, didn’t see the need to repeat them in the rebuttal. The memory of the PCU game is already fading so I’m not going to try and make any new points outside of what I’ve already said otherwise I’m likely to get games mixed up. The only additions I’d add is this season I continue to see a carryover from the previous era of poor tackling, what appears to be out of position by our secondary (could be talent or could be play calling), and slowness at most defensive positions (either physical ability or lack of understanding their job which will slow down a player).
Like I said before I’m not going back and breaking down game film in order to see everything, just pointing out what I’ve noticed and what really stands out to me as inherent problems against a weak OOC schedule. Since football games are not in my top 10 of things important to me on a daily basis (not implying it of you) my memory retention of individual players and full breakdown of games isn’t going to be there. I’m just a fan who only has enough time to focus on it in short burst, which is why I admit that I make mistakes at recall and some analysis at times.
I’ve got no problem with disagreement and difference in philosophy. Remember a crowd of people can watch a car accident and come away with different accounts of the same thing. I agree that GSU/ODU played as if it was their National Championship and they aren’t complete pushovers. With State’s talent levels they were hard fought games, much harder than they should be but that simply reflects the state of the program where we are today. PCU is awful even for FCS standards (yet somehow they upset #12 Furman, that’s a WTF game right there) and USF is really bad. I noticed your other comment about basing USF on last year’s record and their freshman running back running for 275 yards, what you failed to mention is he did it against a bad WCU team. USF was really bad last year and they are still really bad this year.
As for basing State’s play solely on their play against FSU (and Clemson) I believe the gap in talent level is so great between State and them that IF State does play really well against them then major props will need to be given to both the Coaches (for their game plan and preparing the players) and the Players for playing above their level. Just as I believe in the philosophy you can’t take many positives away from playing bad competition, I don’t think you can take too many negatives from playing a team vastly more talented than you. I think a good, full, real analysis of this team will be made when playing against competition that’s on or near the same level as State and this year that pretty much equates to the second half of the season (BC, Louisville, Syracuse, GT, WF, & UNC).
Outside of the offense taking until halftime to get it in gear, I don’t really see anything so far that is troubling on the offensive side of the ball. It’s amazing what a quality QB can do for an offense. I will be interested to see how the OL does in the second half of the season with their rush blocking, that was an area that has been hurting bad for longer than I can remember. It’s the defense that still looks like they haven’t fixed their problems and has been exploited so far by GSU/ODU (one by scheme and the other by a quality QB) and masked by ultra-inferior competition in USF/PCU.
I’m sure we’ll have many more philosophical and game analysis disagreements as the season moves on but being civil and presenting different points of view is what makes SFN a quality site.
Your analysis overlooks what is critical to evaluating the first 4 game performance. In all 4 games the coaches were using those games as “pre-season” learning experiences. Each game revealed what needed to be worked on or developed. Did you notice last night that we threw the deep ball, something we hadn’t done well if at all before?It has been duly noted by many that the best athletes on the team are from the 2 most recent recruiting classes. Our coaches wisely have been bringing along slowly but surely the freshmen additions to this team. IMNSHO it would have been disastrous to have thrown them in the first games.
I didn’t say any negative about the offense other then they have a tendency this season to wait until halftime before waking up. As for the best athletes and such coming on slowly that still doesn’t change the fact that the current defensive players are showing some really bad tendencies while playing bad. I don’t disagree that the freshmen don’t need to sink or swim when you have this weak OOC schedule but (and I’m not looking at who’s getting the PT on defense) I’d hope with such bad competition they have been getting them quality PT.
As far as being prepared to play is concerned, this team is not the same team that we saw in the GSU and ODU games. The “average or below average” ODU team is, IIRc is 3-1. Only by shooting themselves in the foot (kinda like Clemson last night) did GSU lose to GT who in turn beat VT in their house. USF in most certainly does not have an incredibly bad offense or defense either for that matter. They may have some problems just as many other teams but they are most definitely not “bad”.
Just as I’d point out who has State played and beaten, I’m going to do the same for ODU and GSU. I really hope people aren’t thinking that ODU/GSU are in the top half of the teams in the country. …I’m sorry but USF is most certainly BAD. They are horrible, the only teams worse than them State will play all season is PCU & maybe WFU. I’m not going to drag out all their stats but anyone who looks at them and then reads up on their play during games can easily see that.
You say our DL was pushed back 3 and 4 yards by a very small PC OL but only averaged 2.7 yards per rush. Were they tripping and falling over their own feet? FYI a smaller, quicker, well coached OL can do things to open running lanes that larger slower OL cannot do. Ever wonder why our Ali Kassam at 34o lbs. is not playing?
I did not say or imply it happened every time but they were getting pushed around enough to notice they were getting out muscled by guys weighing 50-100 lbs less than them. There’s a difference between speed and speed with strength and if players at PCU are that much faster than the State DL then it’s worse than I thought.
Early season comparative analysis is a dangerous game. For some reason you and a few others seem to think the objective of a football team in the early season should be to do its best to impress the fans and critics. Not happening at NCSU. Check out Coach Doeren’s coaching resume. His 2 years spent as a graduate assistant at USC wasn’t just something to do. The foundation of his coaching philosophy was built there. USC by and large is not a bad place to learn how to be a head football coach.
I think after 25% of the season has been played it’s safe to make quality analysis of tendencies that are being repeated over and over again. I never said they have to impress me, the object of the cupcakes is to bring them along, find the mistakes and fix them if possible. I’m just pointing out the problems that are being repeated game after game against average at best competition. These problems will become bigger when the competition increases. You’re also implying that I’m bashing the coaches which I haven’t done once, I’m simply pointing out the things that most people either want to ignore or simply gloss over while treating the results against HORRIBLE teams as actual improvement. It’s simply a difference in how we look at these cupcakes, I’m assuming you see these games as tangible results while assuming the competition is still pretty good; I see these games as worthless beyond seeing the mistakes that are made over and over again and will be worse when State plays someone with a pulse.
Here’s the good news, one of us will be proven correct in the next few weeks when State is done feasting on dessert and gets to the main course. I predict the offense will continue to score points but only in the 20-29 point range and will struggle against better defenses. I also predict our Defense will be exposed everywhere on the field as weak up front and slow in the back.
I’m happy for the win and the 4-0 start (which was expected before the season started). Everyone needs to enjoy the good feelings from this start but I’m not changing my expectations of 6-6 just yet and here’s some of why I feel that way:
1. Level of competition. I’m sorry but as “good” as GSU/ODU’s offense has appeared both are still average or below-average teams.
2. Tendency of the Offense to wait until the first half is over to remember they have a game to play. (Not just last night)
3. Inability to control the Line of Scrimmage. Short of going back and watching the video for all plays I remember quite a lot of times the DL was pushed back 3-4 yards by a very small PCU OL. Presbyterian is awful on offense, I mean putrid.
(sorry for the lack of a table)PCU @ N.Illinois: RUSH=31-69 yds (AVG. 2.2), PASS=10-18-1 58 yds (YPA=3.2)
PCU vs Furman: RUSH=39-113 yds (AVG. 2.9), PASS=9-18-0 79 yds (YPA=4.4)
PCU @ NCSU: RUSH=45-122 yds (AVG. 2.7), PASS=15-25-0 130 yds (YPA=5.2)I’m sorry but the Defense still isn’t that good, they’ve just played 2 incredibly bad offenses. I will give them props for doing a good job of scoring defense against those awful offenses.
4. Defense Third Down Efficiency: State’s defense has trouble getting off the field, PERIOD.
PCU @ N.Illinois 1-12 (8%)
PCU vs Furman 5-15 (33%)
PCU @ NCSU 8-17 (47%)That’s awful 3rd down defense by the pack, especially when they continue to give up the first down on 3rd and long.
Feel good about the win and the 4-0 (We don’t get many opportunities lately) but try to temper that excitement with reality; as much as we’re excited our Offense has improved behind Brissett, the Defense hasn’t and will be exposed starting against FSU.
Pack looks like they have big head syndrome, thinking they don’t have to play hard to roll over certain teams, and looking ahead syndrome to next week.
New to the site and I share many of the feelings posted but I tire of spending our time and energy with what is being done or not at our “sister” university. We would be better served, in my opinion, to taking care of business in Raleigh and being the best that we can be.
Since you’re new to the site I’ll cut you a little slack but here’s a friendly piece of advice…If you don’t want to read or talk on topics concerning UNC then don’t click on the discussions and definitely don’t take the time to post on topics. It’s really that simple. Instead, you’d be “better served” reading and posting on the pleathera of other articles/threads that talk about NC State. If you expect a site dedicated to college sports isn’t going to have fun at their rivals expense any chance we get then you obviously are not only new to this site but new to sports in general.
Iowa (+6) @Pitt (12:00 ESPNU)
The Hawkeyes are struggling against lower level competition at home and Pitt is steamrolling with their rushing attack.
Georgia Tech (+7.5) @Virginia Tech (12:00 ESPN)
I’d like to say Beamer will respond with Authoritaaayyyyy but I just don’t trust their offense. I don’t like either team but I think PJ keeps it close.
UNC (+2.5) @ECU (3:30 ESPNU)
Carolina has no rushing game and their defense is suspect. There won’t be a hangover in Greenville, at least not until Sunday. Pie-rats win in a shootout.
Virginia (+16.5) @BYU (3:30 ESPN)
The Hoos travel to the Mormon Tabernacle with plans of playing ugly enough to cover. Sorry to say but the Stormin’ Mormons are serious about spreading the gospel and the football this year.
Georgia Southern (+2.5) @South Alabama (7:30)
I’m going off the beaten path here and picking GSU to roll over USA, if ISIS can stand up then GSU sure can.
Stalin does not agree, Jigs. There’s only so much vodka and balogna to go around.
Remember…all animals are equal, just some are more equal than others.
The only real “winner” though is the
HomelandMotherland.I know a lot aren’t going to like this but I think we learned less from this game than we did from GSU/ODU. (I’ll admit I didn’t see more than the first quarter due to the weather/satellite) I’m going back to the you can only take away negative when you play bad competition and USF may be one of the worst FBS teams there is this year. Remember they were beyond awful last year, they struggled to beat Western Carolina giving up tons of yards and points, they lost to Maryland at home after MD had 6 TO’s. My point is the close game against MD is the anamoly for an awful team, not an indicator of a potential decent team.
I wish I could have seen most of the game to see what mistakes State made that were carrying over from the other games this year. The few things I saw was mainly Burris stumbling to give up the first TD, Cherry not lining up on the line that negated a 40 yard run by Brissett before the end of the half, Cherry dropping the punt catch twice which led to a FG on the second one. MVS should be nicknamed Stonehands, he’s repeatedly dropped numerous easy passes that have hit his hands all year. (If I got some names wrong sorry).
The only positives you can really take away from this, in my opinion, are the intangibles: confidence (though it may be false confidence if the staff and players feel too good about what they did).
I’m happy for an easy win and having a quality QB again but I think USF showed it’s still as bad as they were last year and State showed just how bad you can be when you don’t have a QB, instead of thinking State showing they are better than we thought.
Consequently the game against Presbyterian will be more of the same.
Actually, the color guy is pretty savvy. Bad eyes, though.
I’ve been “blessed” with the front moving through my area during the 2nd qtr and have had only 30 seconds of viewing pleasure.
I think the USF/MD game was the anamoly, they are just as bad this year as last.
The color commentator is too stupid to breath.
A tipped pass which that would be if not a fumble can’t be a lateral pass. If I am wrong please correct me.
But it was never tipped which is why it was never a fumble. But you are correct that if it had been tipped it would have been a batted down ball and incomplete.
Whether knocking the ball loose before bringing the arm forward or hitting his arm in the process of throwing it and the ball never breaking the plane and going backwards, either way it’s a fumble.
We need to do more of what we’re doing because outside of Burris stumbling State hasn’t made a mistake against USF.
As for the QB fumble, even if it didn’t come out before the throw the ball didn’t go forward so that’s a lateral.
