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There’s no such thing as a “Good Loss” (Unless you’re Bama Football or UNC Basketbal) so I hope that can be put to rest. A loss is a loss is a loss. “Good Losses” and “Bad Losses” will all get figured into your RPI and that is the only weight it appears the Selection Committee will have it carry. I say the Selection Committee because really that’s all we’re talking about right, getting into the NCAAT as an at-large bid? There is your RPI (good losses, bad losses, wins on the road, wins at home, SOS, and all the other things people want to parse when talking about the last 4 IN/OUT) and then there’s Quality Wins (Top 25 & Top 50 RPI Wins), everything else is just noise.
So overall the Wofford game came down to hurting State’s RPI thus hurting their at-large bid. As for Wofford’s RPI let’s not go overboard with where any school’s RPI is just yet, it’s too early in the season. Wait until February when there is enough data to make the RPI somewhat useful, until then it’s only speculation if it would have been a “Good Win” come selection time. I’d also like to add let’s wait and see if Wofford has the resume to get into the NCAAT on it’s own or simply because they won the SoCon and got the automatic bid, big difference between the 2. Let’s not go crowning them the next Seth-Curry-Davidson this early into the season.
Losing to Wofford has a big negative effect because of their name right now more than anything. How can you say you’re a program moving in the right direction when you trip up at home to Wofford? Most people aren’t going to review the game. Most people aren’t going to find out how well they did last year or at the end of the season compare outcomes. They are going to see NC State lost at home to Wofford and that’s it, it’s the name that matters.
Now for the “terrible loss” aspect, it’s how they lost that matters. It’s another up late and blow the lead outcome that is becoming all to familiar with Gottfried coached teams. It’s a pattern and patterns must be looked at. This time it wasn’t due to poor FT shooting luckily but it did happen. I haven’t poured over this season’s stats yet (yeah I know but I swear I feel okay) so I’m not going make any definitive assumptions (like that?) just this moment.
Can we PLEASE stop with the “YOUNG TEAM” nonsense. It’s 2014 and guess what, Everyone is young. Players leave early or they transfer, it happens and because of that most teams are predominantly freshmen and sophomores. It’s called Talent AND Coaching. Want to know who isn’t young? Teams without high tier talent. Let’s take a look at who was playing in this particular game and see the experience differences:
NC State: Starter (R-SR, R-JR, SO, SO, SO) Bench (SO, FR, SR, FR)
Wofford: Starter (SR, JR, JR, SO, SO) Bench (FR, JR, FR, FR)Doesn’t appear to me that Wofford was a heck of a lot older than State, if at all.
Look I have my opinions about Gottfried and I’ll share them more at a later date but for now, we’re a transition offense team and if teams continue to hang back to stop State from pushing the ball then State is down to Lacey being Lacey and Turner getting En Fuego for a half and burying 3’s, otherwise it’s painful to watch.
Top 25 rankings in college basketball are useless but I’ll get back to this point in just a minute. Players commit to a school, whether straight from HS or transferring to another, for a number of reasons but I’d take a wild guess and say what conference they play in isn’t even in the top 5. I’d venture a guess and say playing time is the #1 reason for a player to transfer with wanting a different coach being a close #2. With the expansion of ESPN/Fox Sports coverage, getting seen on TV isn’t difficult at most schools anymore so who you play doesn’t mean as much as it used to.
As for luring Top Tier talent to NC State, I’d hate to be the bearer of bad news but State isn’t luring in anymore top tier talent now on a basis to make any difference what major conference they are in. NC State has numerous advantages in recruiting already built in (Facilities, Large City, History, Passionate Fanbase, Major Conference Affiliation) but it takes more than that to recruit players. Most players today commit to a coach, not a school and definitely not a conference. Everyone has seen this the second a coach is fired and how many players transfer out.
Back to the Top 25 thing. The real measuring stick of any program is (1) Are you getting to the NCAAT? and (2) How far are you going in the NCAAT? Let’s take a look at just the SEC and ACC in the NCAAT over the past 5 years:
* = Hasn’t been a part of the conference the entire 5 years
# = Played in the NCAAT opening PLAY-IN rounds and the win/loss isn’t figured inAs you can see the SEC has had 4 teams consistently (3x or more) make the NCAAT. Of those 4, 2 have future HOF coaches with 1 at a blue blood school who has won a national championship during that time. The fourth (Vanderbilt) hasn’t done anything with their appearances though they usually do well during the regular season.
In the ACC you have 4 teams consistently (3x or more) making the NCAAT as well. Doesn’t appear like the ACC has been that big of a factor in postseason. Of those 4, 2 have future HOF coaches with both at blue blood schools and one winning a national championship during that time. The other 2 have done about the same as the other 2 (UT and Vanderbilt) in the SEC.
So initially being in the ACC hasn’t been any better than being in the SEC, and the ACC is a “Basketball” conference.
Now let’s add in the results of the teams that have been added to the conferences in the last 5 years to see what they bring to the table and how they might change the outlook in the future.
Now here’s where the changes come into play. The SEC adds one team who record from 2 conferences makes it a consistent attender in the NCAAT during this timeframe, though neither team added has done anything with their visits to the NCAAT.
The ACC on the other hand has added 4 teams that all are consistent attenders with 2 having HOF coaches and one winning a National title during this time. The other 2 (Pitt & ND) have done well during the regular seasons but nothing in the tournaments.
So what’s the common denominator in all this? Coaching. You’ve got “good” coaches who can get you to the NCAAT and you have HOF coaches who can get you to the Final Four and win you a National Championship. Conference affiliation doesn’t seen to have any impact in where these coaches have brought in such top tier talent and been able to win.
As for Baseball, it’s just like any other non-revenue sport…if you get to the championship level then people will get “excited” for a short stint, otherwise you have a VERY SMALL following.
It may benefit the football program but this would be at the expense of pretty much every other sport and in some cases academics. I believe a large part of our success in basketball recruiting is due to selling the acc. Sure it would be nice to finish top three in the sec each year which we might have with the teams on campus the past couple of years but I don’t see us recruiting those caliber teams in the sec. How do you sell a North Carolina kid to play against auburn, miss st, Georgia, usc team for four years when duke, wake, and unc can offer the ACC?
As far as non revenue sports go, it would be a lateral (maybe step up, maybe) step in baseball and a monumental step back in virtually all other sports. There is not even men’s soccer at majority (?) sec schools. And the triangle area has top 10 nationally ranked club soccer at the youth level. The sec is also considered a much less prestigious academic conference across the board.
First off, being in the SEC doesn’t seem to have hurt Florida in building a 2 time National Champion in basketball as well as being Top 25 most years. Seems to me if you have the right coach you can win anywhere.
Second, research in the past has shown most basketball recruits tend to gravitate toward schools located in or next to major cities as opposed to isolated college towns in the middle of nowhere (where most SEC schools usually are). This has something to do with the programs history but also that most of the best players come from major metropolitan areas and prefer a school with access to a bigger city. Since NC State has the benefit of history (though not recent) and major city we have the built in advantages of recruiting that most SEC schools don’t have and thus wouldn’t be hurt by being a part of the SEC. As for selling the ACC, well considering selling is all about TV exposure, everyone is on TV now even the SEC the last time I checked.
Last point, no one gives 2 cents about non-revenue sports other than those who play them.
NC State @ UNC (-8)
Georgia Tech @ Georgia (-13)
Florida @ FSU (-7.5)
Auburn @ Alabama (-9.5)
Wake Forest @ Duke (-18)Maryland @ Michigan (-5)
Mississippi @ Arkansas (+3)
Wisconsin (-9.5) @ Iowa
Arizona (+4) @ Utah
USC @ UCLA (-3.5)
Wake Forest @ NC State (-14.5)
VT @ Duke (-5.5)
FSU (-1.5) @ Miami
Michigan State (-12.5) @ Maryland
Miss State @ Alabama (-7.5)GT @ NC State (+5)
Duke @ Syracuse (+3.5)
WVU @ Texas (+3.5)
Louisville @ BC (+3)
Alabama @ LSU (+6.5)Gowolves, a team is going to beat you on offense in 1 of 2 ways, either out talent you (UNC) or out scheme you (UVA). If you’re going to present a quality defense then it can’t be an afterthought in practice (I’ve never been to a practice so I have no idea what they teach or for how long). My point is it’s more than desire, you have to be taught defense, footwork, communication, transition, boxing out, help defense, crap that isn’t taught anymore at the high school and AAU level. In high school these guys were able to live off a much higher talent level alone and we all know what AAU is like. Players today need to be educated even more so in college on defense and while I agree with BJD that spending more time on offense is the preferred choice when limited on time and you have the offensive horses that Gott can get, there doesn’t appear to be enough teaching and practice of defense from this staff to improve from average. Defense helps win those few games during the season that’ll improve seeding for the tournament. The tournament is the measuring stick for the quality of the season. If you want to go far in the tournament then you MUST have a quality defense to go along with a really good offense and history shows (I’ll show all of it in an upcoming series of articles) Gottfried doesn’t produce quality defenses.
So back to the original point: I’ll believe it when I see it because the argument that we’ll be better because we’ve added some non-lottery pick freshmen and we have to be better because so and so are gone and other have to improve from one year to the next simply because they are a year older just doesn’t hold water with me.
I guess we’ll find out if Addition by Subtraction improves the defense this year. Only have to wait a couple of months before we start to find out. Personally I think we have the same defensive team that we’ve always had under Gott and that he’s had in the past. I’ll be happily surprised if you’re right on this because adding a defense to Gott’s offensive system will go a long ways in how this team will finish.
While I agree that Beejay was disruptive when on the court and in a half court set State was attrocious on transitition defense and easily beaten with screens, Cat included who would almost always go under a screen instead of over it. BJD you speak of high basketball IQ but having a coach who teaches proper defense goes a long way in increasing a players bball-IQ, or the appearence of it. There’s also never been any communication (that I can see or tell) on the court between the players while on D. I could be speaking out of my butt on that one but the eyeball evidence shows they either don’t talk or are speaking swahili out there. Either way they look like they are playing a pickup game together for the first time. I’m with wuf on this, I’ll believe they have improved on defense when they show it too me for the first time and can do so consistently against similar competition and not the sisters of the poor.
You still have to learn defense and have a scheme, it just doesn’t happen at the college level with talent alone. Also, expecting freshmen to be good defenders in the acc is wishful thinking. While others may have faith and belief that things will be better on defense, I have none, thanks to MG’s track record as a coach and seeing what the ACC does to non-lottery pick freshmen.
I think 9th at best unless Gottfried has discovered that the Ole’ defense loses games on top of the loss of all everything Buckets. NIT is the only postseason I foresee.
NC State @ Syracuse (-3.5)
Tennessee @ South Carolina (-7)
Florida vs Georgia (-13)
North Carolina @ Miami (-17)
Boston College @ Virginia Tech (-3)
Going all home favorites this week.
Michigan @ Michigan State (-17)
UConn @ ECU (-27.5)
Syracuse @ Clemson (-14.5)
Maryland @ Wisconsin (-11.5)
Rutgers @ Nebraska (-17.5)Here’s my response to the praise of “effort” by the players…
If we have to praise them for giving a damn about a football game and playing to win then State will never win a damn thing again.
I predict less than 50 yards rushing by the pack and Brissett trying to do too much and getting picked off 3 times with at least 1 returned for a TD.
NC State @Louisville (-16.5) [3:30 RSN]
Georgia (-3.5) @Arkansas [4:00 SECN]
Missouri @Florida (-4.5) [7:00 ESPN2]
Tennessee @Ole Miss (-16.5) [7:00 ESPN]
Kentucky @LSU (-10) [7:30 SECN]
FSU (-23.5) @Syracuse [12:00 ESPN]
The Cuse are all kinds of screwed and that’s before FSU comes to town.
Louisville (+9.5) @Clemson [3:30 ESPNU]
Louisville may have a strong defense but they have no offense. This could be Clemson’s second straight shutout.
ECU (-15) @South Florida [7:00 ESPNU]
I think Ruff will have the Pie-rats more focused then they were against sorry SMU and we’ve seen just how bad USF can be.
LSU (-1.5) @Florida [7:30 SECN]
This may not be Les Miles’ best team (or even a good team) but Muschamp is out the door and the clock is just counting down to the end of the season.
Boston College (+4) @NC State [3:30 RSN/Fox Sports Carolinas]
Nothing good comes from this game when making picks. I’m going with the home team and lucky(??) for State they are the home team.
And you can kiss my Rosie red arse 83. I was talking about our defense which I have been pretty dead on
N.C. STATE
No report issued
CLEMSON
PROBABLE: Charone Peake, WR (knee); Adam Choice, RB (thigh)
OUT: Oliver Jones, OT (knee); Zac Brooks, RB (foot); Tyshon Dye, RB (Achilles); Travis Blanks, S (knee); Martin Jenkins, CB (foot); Joe Gore, OL (appendicitis)
