Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
The disparity is ND ain’t playing any defense. Simple as that.
You’re right, grabbing and shoving isn’t “defense”
Calls around the basketry not being called consistently, very onesided, and yet the Pack is up big. Worried about foul trouble here on out
I love the big men slamming it home and finishing strong instead of layups and getting knocked around.
Is it just me or are the refs allowing more physical play for ND interior compared to State interior?
Rick’s not gonna be happy, not much to bitch about. Wait, what am I thinking? He doesn’t need anything to bitch about to bitch.
Hey now, you haven’t met Kinder, Gentler Rick ™! We all cool now.
He just hasn’t taken Rick to Applebee’s yet.
DAGGER!
I think everybody’s balls have dropped now. We just might have a ball team on our hands, fellas.
Close, only Nard and Spaz haven’t made a basket yet.
Good shooting and defensive rebounding according to the numbers. Of course you’d hope so against a team that just jacks up 3’s, even with the long rebounds.
from the look of the game tracker shot distribution charts it looks like the Pack might want to just hang out at the 3 point line all night. Miami (6) 3’s and only (2) 2’s.
Game only on digital cable in my area (which I don’t have)
ESPN3 is blacking me out
theacc.com is only streaming GT/UVA, not us.So I’m SOL for the remainder of weekday games the rest of the season.
CBS Sports Bracketology has a nice new feature this year concerning RPI. If you look on the right hand side you see a feature called Palm Reader where you can enter a school and see how they can improve their RPI for that day, outside of a game they are actually playing.
For example today they have the following for N.C. State:
How the Wolfpack Can Boost
Their RPI TodayHofstra needs to beat Drexel
Game Info: 7:00 PMCincinnati needs to beat Houston
Game Info: 7:00 PM | TV: ESNNPurdue needs to beat Illinois
Game Info: 9:00 PM | TV: BTNBoise State needs to beat San Jose State
Game Info: 10:00 PMI thought this is a pretty neat feature in case you want to follow scores of teams State has already played or even catch a some of those games to see how other games will effect State’s RPI.
NCAA Dance Card (updated through Sunday 1/18/15)
The formula has correctly predicted 108 of 110 at-large bids over the last three years combined (98%).
In addition to the Dance Card value and ranking, also shown is the probability that a team with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past years, if today was Selection Sunday. The RPI ranks are from the old RPI formula, in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally. This is the version of the RPI used in the Dance Card’s development, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years.
Since the RPI is the old version and not the new (not weighted for home and away games) don’t try and compare their RPI to CBS Sports or NCAA RPI rankings but I can understand why they haven’t changed since they have only missed 2x in the last 3 years (NC State in 2014 being one of them) using the formula that created the prediction model that is still accurate today even with the weighted RPI being used by the NCAA.
Why do I do post all of that??? Simple….they have NC State with an RPI of 17 but ranked #24 on the list with a 100% Chance of getting a bid.
LSU, Washington, Miami, Tennessee (Last Four In)
Mississippi, Colorado State, BYU, Tulsa (Last Four Out)ACC Teams
In: UVA, Duke, UNC, Louisville, Notre Dame, NCSU
Bubble In: Miami
Bubble Out: Clemson, Syracuse, PittsburghDance card is live and we are 100% in at this point with an overall ranking of #24.
This is no doubt due to the non-conference schedule and their methodology which uses the “old” RPI. (From memory old RPI didn’t give as much weight to road games as current formula does.)
Looks like choppack beat me to it.
So. I am looking through kenpom’s #s. This – so far – is gott’s 2nd best team defensively.
And its pretty obvious that the only thing that keeps this program from being elite under Gottfried is defense. The last 3 years we have typically been one of the worst defensively of those receiving at large bids.
Chop, which # are you using to determine this? What timespan are you using, just while at NCSU or including Bama?
The reason I ask if you include time at Bama and use Adjusted Defensive efficiency 2015 (currently) is 97.9% and is tied for 5th best (2005 – R64) behind:
#4 (2004 – E8 – 97.6)
#3 (2012 – S16 – 97.1)
#2 (2003 – R64 – 96.7)
#1 (2002 – R32 – 95.1).If you use eFG% then this is by far his best team currently at 44.1% (#2 is 2002 – 46.0%).
I agree that defense is his biggest handicap to taking the program to the next level but it’s not completely that simple. This year’s team is lacking in offensive efficiency, ranking 7th out of those 13 seasons but 5th if you look at the spread (Offensive eff. – Defensive eff.). The offense needs to improve just as much as the defense.
Lord knows those that disagree with me know I constantly beat the drum about defensive rebounding but this team has done surprisingly well so far this season. They are sub-30% in giving up offensive rebounds and shockingly that’s the best his teams have done. There’s still plenty of season left so anything can change but that stat is a pleasant surprise. If he could somehow get his teams to force turnovers even some of the time then you’d see this team move to another level.
Sorry, wasn’t meant to hijack the thread since this discussion can very easily be talked about on just about any other thread. So to get this back to the topic on hand….
….Thanks VaWolf for that insight into the bumps of end of season vs conference tournaments. Hopefully this turns out into an enjoyable watch through the regular season and not constantly wondering which few chances the Pack has left to get those marquee wins.
I think it was our own VaWolf who several years ago pointed out a team’s seeding is usually within +/- 1 spot of their RPI, ex: NCSU RPI = 35. Divide by 4 and you have 8.75 so you’d expect a team like NCSU to be projected between 8-10 seed at this moment. I’m going off of memory that this is fact based off of others work that I can’t even begin to find at this moment. Granted you have to get the at-large first and the higher your RPI the more variance you’ll have since they don’t take the top 68 RPI teams but the rule is that’s usually what you’ll end up with. As such I put no stock in Palm who puts teams like Notre Dame at a 3 seed when they have an RPI of 38. When you pull up his bracketology he has State as an 11, down 2 seeds in relation to our RPI, and ODU at a 6 which is +2 to their RPI. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt of going +/- 2 seeds but to think ODU is a 6 with an RPI of 31 and NCSU is an 11 with an RPI of 35 and the teams they’ve both played and beaten it’s clear he’s either trolling (which is likely) or he’s a moron for the subject he’s supposed to be an “expert”. It’s clear he’s not predicting where they’ll finish because he moves them up and down each week due to results. I’ll give ND credit for one thing, they may not have played anyone in the non-con schedule and they constantly play catch up in games (which will start to bite them against better competition) but they have to believe they’ll be able to come back on you no matter how much they are down and that makes them a dangerous team.
All in all it’s nice to talk about State and seeding rather then speculating at what work they need to do to make it on the right side of the bubble even in mid-January, even if State is closer to the bubble then any of us would like.
Bill,
First half the Pack couldn’t have played better on offense without being perfect on everything. Defense was ehh and was piss poor on defensive rebounding.
Second half we saw a football game break out. State was completely lost. They had no control and zero calming influence on the court. They jacked crap up that never should have taken. They committed too many turnovers, most of which lead to easy baskets or a foul. Gave up lots of rebounds but at least stepped up their offensive rebounds late in the game.
I’ll give NCSU this, they hit a couple of shots in the final 3 minutes and then made their FT’s down the stretch, both of which they weren’t doing earlier in the year or previous seasons.
It was a FUGLY game with a Win for an outcome, I’ll take it everyday and twice on Sunday’s. Now on to Miami where State needs another W.
Bonner is too negative for me.
I never said he was good. 🙂
I still couldn’t figure out how the team that was down the entire game, that asserted a full pressure defense and got much more physical, ended up 8 less fouls (and was fouling during the final minute) and 12 more FTA’s????
Rick, the sad thing is Bonner is better than most I’ve heard over the last few years…especially on the ACCN.
