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Since we seem to enjoy arguing, both currently and historically, about whether it is our recruiting or coaching which sucks more, I thought this might interest the masses. My take from the chart/numbers is that we are, to say the least, underwhelming at both.
Could be worse. We could be Kansas (or Memphis).
http://regressing.deadspin.com/chart-which-ncaa-football-teams-outplay-their-recruit-1640831522
This is interesting work. The correlation between strong recruiting and results on the field is definitely there, but not nearly as strong as I would have expected.
In this type of analysis, I would have expected NCSU to be firmly on the line – IMO our results have pretty much matched or exceeded our recruiting. I was surprised to see us on the “Better at Recruiting” side of the line. The methodology used 5 years of data, so our 0-fer the ACC last year weighs heavily, along with TOB’s tail off in terms of performance. I suspect if the experiment is repeated with a broader data set, we move closer to the line…
Based on this conclusion, though, Duke becomes a little surprising. Duke was 10-4 last year, with 2 of the losses coming in the ACC Championship game and the bowl game with TAMU. If last year’s results are more heavily weighted (as appears to be the case with NCSU), seems like Duke’s nascent success would have moved them to the “on the field” side of the line.
Another interesting note: if you look at underperformance vs. outperformance, regardless of where you are along the continuum, the ACC has one team clearly over performing (Syracuse), three teams I judge too close to call (GaTech, Louisville, VT). Everybody else is shown as under performing.
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