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^85EE, but defense just doesn’t get better on it’s own. And if Gottfried is basing his improvement on better talent then what happens when players transfer or recruiting slides for any reason? That’s a clear recipe for disaster.
Isn’t the real key not the AdjO or AdjD but the net of the two? 3 of the final four teams have greater than 20 points net difference and UConn is 19.
If you are going to give up a bunch of points per possession you need to score a bunch per possession.
Now I agree that defense is probably where the low hanging fruit for NC State. But I see our model for winning being as a very good offensive team 118-120 AdjO (like Wisconsin or Michigan) and a top 50ish defense AdjD around 96-98. That would put you in the 22 point net range.
In the college game before the mid-1980s, winning was primarily a combination of talent and skill, plus some coaching. 1983 is the textbook example of how a fundamentally solid but undermanned team could beat a team with superior talent in a title game- with great skills and coaching. But with a shot clock, it’s primarily talent. Yes, occasionally a Cinderella gets to the S16, but aside from George Mason’s run, the Final Four is usually dominated by the most talented teams. Villanova won it in ’85 with a 45-second clock, but they were playing an opponent for the 3rd time that season, and shot nearly 80% for the game, an unheard-of percentage.
In short, in an NBA-style game, the “Law of the Jungle” prevails. The little guy has basically no chance in a series of games. Calipari knows this and although I detest the guy, he knows what to do to win. The same schools, who are the ones who get all the talent, dominate the NCAAT (and the BCS). Ignore all the early upsets, because it’s business as usual in the FF. And for schools like NCSU, that’s not good news.
^eccdogg, yes but over the last 11 years how many teams have been able to have that combination and get to the FF? Just 2 and both are this year. That’s an unrealistic plan for reaching the FF. When the offense isn’t clicking what will you have to fall back on? State doesn’t need the #1 defense but they can’t have just a slightly better than average one either, not if the goal is to reach the FF and thus a title.
Jig, thank you. We all benefit when you are injured. That is awesome.
Yes, we look bad on defense. We look really bad on defense on paper. We look really, really awful on a multi-line chart. I saw that Gott championed one FFDrtg outlier – sad. However that was near the end of his reign at AL though. I did notice the improved performance during his last years at AL and as another poster said, without the talent that we are able to attract. Ugggh…we are not good on d.
Between BSW, Vandy and TL it’s amazing we stopped anybody. I know it’s not exactly great sportsmanship but when do you just throw a towel on a player and tell him to foul until he can foul no more on D. There should have been some sort of individual sacrifice for the good of the team. Don’t get me wrong…like them lots but wow.
Holistically, I feel better because of our team’s record.
Thanks again- this is good stuff.
Uh…Doc M. They did foul til they couldn’t foul no mo. Unfortunatly,it didn’t come in the form of sacrifice. Between lousy decisions, and cement feet, the fouls came pretty much in making up for lousy decisions and cement feet.
Jigsy…If you get a chance, run us Beilein, Pitino and Boeheim…Huggins,too. D side.
The average FF spread (ORtg-DRtg) over the last 11 years is 24.5 with the smallest spreads being 14.3 & 14.7 (2011 VCU & Butler).
Gottfried’s NCAAT Year Spreads (2004-Present):
2004 15.6 (E8)
2005 18.6 (R64)
2006 12.1 (R32)
2012 12.8 (S16)
2013 15.7 (R64)
2014 11.0 (R64)The number of teams that made the FF with a spread of 18.6 or less since 2004 = 6 (13.6%)
Gottfried’s NCAAT Year DRtg (2004-Present):
2004 97.6 (E8)
2005 97.9 (R64)
2006 100.1 (R32)
2012 97.1 (S16)
2013 98.4 (R64)
2014 102.8 (R64)The number of teams that made the FF with a DRtg of 97.1 or greater since 2004 = 1 (2.3%) [2014 Wisconsin]
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When you look at the last 10 years the national champion never had less than 114.2 ORtg (2011 UConn), a DRtg greater than 92.9 (2009 UNC), or a spread less than 22.5 (2011 UConn). The average over the last 10 years for the national champion has been ORtg 119.2, DRtg 90.0, Spread 29.2.So what does that mean for 2014 FF?
Well if no team with greater than a DRtg of 92.9 then you can eliminate Wisconsin (97.1) and Kentucky (96.7). If no team with less than a ORtg of 114.2 has won then you can eliminate UConn (111.6). You can also eliminate by a spread less than 22.5, Kentucky (21.3) and UConn (18.7). Sorry BJD, ShadowPack doesn’t have a chance.
So there you have it, your 2014 National Champion…Florida. (I reserve all rights to go back later and delete this if it doesn’t come true)
One year (’85?) Villanova went 1-3 against UConn. But they shot 80% from the field to win the one that matters most.
In other words, strange things still happen.
Not sure how much stock I post in the scouts that said Purvis had great vision and was a great passer. At least I didn’t see much of that the one year at State.
Communism is not love. Communism is a hammer which we use to crush the enemy. Mao Zedong
A lot of good stuff here:
– I love the initial analysis. I did something similar when we hired Gott. He’s been quite a good offensive coach and quite a mediocre defensive one. Against high major peers (and thus teams with similar talent levels), the defense has been on the poor side. The best defenses from Gott have always been about average.
– Some argue it’s the players and recruiting. I don’t buy it other than physical attributes of those recruited. Defense is about effort, the scheme, intelligence and helping. Those things can be taught and the effort is a culture.
– I don’t agree with the post stating that they’re hoping staff changes happen to fix the defense. From some recent accounts (related to Lutz leaving), Gott is teaching the offense and the defense. I’m not sure how swapping an assistant helps that.
– I agree with BJD, that in college basketball I would rather be great on offense and above average on defense than great on defense and above average on offense. The reason is that teams that can’t score typically vulnerable in the tournament — particularly those who play stall ball. That’s part of why Wisconsin under Ryan has stalled out so many times. This year they just got lucky with the seed (had them in my Final Four) and the fact that Arizona was playing without a starter lost mid year. Virginia kind of struggled to score this year at times, and the first time they ran into a team with a good defense in Michigan State, they lost. These types of teams are just one emotional high or hot shooting 3 point team from getting knocked out.That’s part of why Wisconsin under Ryan has stalled out so many times. This year they just got lucky with the seed (had them in my Final Four) and the fact that Arizona was playing without a starter lost mid year.
^Wisconsin is also better (overall) on offense this season than in most (all) seasons under Ryan. This fact may be coincidental, but they did make the Final Four this season – the only time under Ryan. I feel however that it is not entirely coincidental – that Wiscy’s being better offensively and making the Final Four this season gives more credence to your’s and Bjd’s opinion of being ‘great on offense, good on defense’ (an opinion I share as well). Can’t take too much from this occurrence, but it is interesting nonetheless.
^ then add UVA to your comments too pup. They also had a spike in their O this year and won the conf…..
UVA was “great on D, good on offense.” Massive upgrade from their usual “great on D, avert thine eyes on offense.” Still, they had trouble getting late baskets when they really needed them. Unlike, say, Wiscy, UConn, Kentucky.
Wiscy was pretty elite on offense this year, I just still hated watching them for some reason. They dive an awful lot, for one thing.
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