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Thanks to a sports injury I was laid up in bed with nothing to do for the better part of a week. During that time I had some time to watch basketball,
[See the full post at: What does it take to reach the Final Four? (Part I)]This is awesome. Thank you. Unless we learn to D up, expect more of the same.
It is also interesting to look at this years Final Four coaches.
Donovan and Cal – what more needs to be said? Both excellent. Both with a lot of miles left to go.
Bo Ryan – Mr. Wisconsin. Rock solid for that program. First Final Four. 12 consecutive tourney appearances (never missed). Six Sweet 16s and an Elite 8. Championship coach, wherever he’s been. A true systems guy that gets the most out of his players.
Kevin Ollie – Second season at UCONN, following a legend, with a break through season. NBA journey man. Probably the wild card in this Final Four. Kids seem to love him and play very hard for him. Can he sustain success?
Really impressed by Ollie, how he’s done things his own way and excised most of the douchiness from that program.
In general terms, Dick Sheridan vs ECU in the Peach Bowl proved to me that the bend-but-don’t-break defensive philosophy is a losing one. You have to attack with both offense and defense…and the same holds true for basketball. In BB, strong defense leads to fast-breaks and easy points…and can often pull you through when your offense is not clicking that night.
The Greatest Show on Turf as well as UNLV with Stacey Augmon and Larry Johnson showed that it is possible to win with only offense. But history shows that an offensive-only philosophy falls short more often than not.
“Work on defense, rest on offense.”
-CD senior
Of course the “rest” is not in the literal sense, but you get the gist.
“offense sells tickets, defense wins championships”
Bear Bryant IIRC. But as Va astutely points out, especially in basketball the offense often feeds off of defensive execution/intensity.
TJ Warren is an offensive weapon without a doubt, but my lingering memory of him will likely be him notching up his defensive intensity and creating easy transition scores.
Nice work. Thanks for the comparison layout.
One thing I will throw out for discussion is/are teams that are “playing their best” when tourney season rolls around – and how that may (may not) belie any ratings.
I think it’s safe to argue that Gottfried’s initial squad (’11-’12) was easily playing their best ball at the end of that season – due in no small part to picking it way up on the defensive end.
I would say the same about this season’s squad (’13-’14), but the defense never really saw a huge uptick (based on the highly quantitative ‘eyeball’ method of analysis – haha). It can be argued that they were playing their best ball – I believe they were – but ultimately a lack of a true defensive presence sealed any fate. It would’ve been nice to finish off SLU and see what happened – alas, no go.
The ’12-’13 squad seemed destined to finish the way the did. Good performances against Duke, etc. – blew Virginia away in the ACC tourny – but you (I) never got the feeling that they would really put it together due to whatever reasoning (chemistry, etc.).
I’m a believer in “just get to the tournament and be playing your best ball when you get there – then hope for good match-ups” – however, that’s not to say that ratings systems don’t have their place or that regular season results do not predict postseason success rates. We all know that we need to see consistently better defensive performances (and rebounding) to have real hope of a ‘Final Four’ type success.
Thoughts on “playing your best at tourny time” vs. ratings? Also, I think Gottfried sets his teams up well for playing their best at the right time (this in no way is intended to start a referendum on Gottfried – it’s just an opinion) – I’d be interested to hear opinions on that well, opinion 🙂
Thoughts on “playing your best at tourny time” vs. ratings?
It takes both. In the NCAAT (especially after the first round), good teams have to beat other good teams to advance. The good teams that peak at tourney time have a distinct advantage. For instance, was anyone shocked when Syracuse was beaten in the second round?
1.21JGW – This data is the best way to present what I and other fans have been unable to express when watching our team struggle through frustrating moments, stretches within a game, or whole games. I wonder if our coaching staff looks at their data in this way (or just as well sees this data you present) and comes to understand where “the system/team” needs to be better developed. I also wonder if the coaching staff/Gottfried is so single minded in philosophy with regard to focusing only on offense at the expense of defensive preparation. I doubt any good coach and his staff would leave such a glaring hole in their preparation of a team. When I see videos of the previous Wolfpack teams play with such defensive tenacity, I can’t stop the questions running through my mind like “What if we played that hard on defense nowadays?” or “Would we still be dancing if we played defense at all?” Is this simply a generational difference? Do players now just not have the same set of fundamental skills that we witnessed back in the 70s,80s?
The “data” is impressive when presented clearly and concised… good job Jiggs…
But isn’t there a fundamental question underlying the data… ??
What’s the difference between ‘Not playing good defense’ and ‘Not able to play good defense’ ?
Doesn’t that need to be addressed before delving into constructs like…‘How much did our defense improve over the season?’
‘We we playing our best ball at the end of the season?’
‘How good a job did our Coaches do teaching our kids how to play defense?’#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!What’s the difference between ‘Not playing good defense’ and ‘Not able to play good defense’ ?
No significant difference because they both lead to the same place.
I’m not part of the staff nor do I have a connection to it so I have absolutely no idea what they do in practice or what the coaches philosophy is when it comes to defense. All I know is what is on paper and what I see on TV and when it comes to defense we’re average and average doesn’t win championships.
We all want State to win it all and we all know the best team in the country doesn’t always win it every year but they usually make the FF. Plus remember this is a view from 30k feet up of how State looks when compared to FF teams using TFS as an indicator. There are other stats you can use and many other factors that go into how you get to this view, i.e. Coaching, Talent level, Age, Experience, Injuries, how well a team is playing come tournament time. Those are all legit ways to look at teams when you get closer to the ground to see the rooftops. Also, don’t assume that the teams that make the FF are the only teams who have a high ORtg and low DRtg, there are more teams out there who are close to the FF teams or better but other circumstances prevented them from making it to the final weekend.
This is a perfect answer:
Thoughts on “playing your best at tourny time” vs. ratings?
It takes both. In the NCAAT (especially after the first round), good teams have to beat other good teams to advance. The good teams that peak at tourney time have a distinct advantage. For instance, was anyone shocked when Syracuse was beaten in the second round?
Bill
But isn’t there a fundamental question underlying the data… ??
What’s the difference between ‘Not playing good defense’ and ‘Not able to play good defense’ ?
Whether it’s not playing or unable to play makes no difference. We’re taking a big picture look at Gottfried’s teams spaning 2 teams in 9 seasons over 11 years to see if there is a pattern when compared to teams who actually made it to the FF. Gottfried has enough of a past that we can look for patterns and draw general conclusions. When it comes to defense, who is out recruiting for defensive guys? Who is being evaluated on their defensive capabilities? Defense is taught, especially in today’s AAU age where fundamentals are sacrificed on the alter for high flying dunks and 3 point shooting.
The conclusion is as long as Gottfried continues to produce defensive results that he has always produced then short of a miracle we have already seen what he will continue to provide. Is everyone happy with a ceiling of making it to the Sweet 16, maybe Elite Eight? Because even the Cinderella teams are better defensively than Gottfried’s teams have been.
What’s the difference between ‘Not playing good defense’ and ‘Not able to play good defense’ ?
No significant difference because they both lead to the same place.
No…it does not affect the raw numbers….
But it *might make some difference in the conclusions/decisions that follow the numbers…
…if you are the Coach or Staff or maybe just a fan looking for insight…In my “limited” experience, numbers rarely answer the “Why” questions…
———
Just for fun questions…Other than Richard Howell or CUZ…
…name our best defensive player 6’7″ or taller over the last three seasons…Other than CJ Williams…
…name our best defensive perimeter player over the last three seasons…Then looking at next season…
(..excluding freshman… ’cause we all know Freshman cannot play D1 defense… )Who will be our best defensive player 6’7″ or taller ??
Who will be our best perimeter player ??————
Qualitative Answer to the Query in the OP…
(category- defense )One of each of the above… (over 6’7″ and on the perimeter) better than anyone we have seen in Red & White the last three years…
AND
Two More as good as any we have seen…And that, my friends, starts with recruiting — includes a whole lot of teaching/coaching — and ends with a couple seasons experience on the floor…
There are no shortcuts…#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school![EDIT]
List of teams NOT IN THE FF with an ORtg >110 & DRtg <95:
Arizona (E8)
Louisville (S16)
Virginia (S16)
Wichita State (R32)
Tennessee (S16)
Villanova (R32)
Syracuse (R32)
Gonzaga (R32)
SMU (NIT)DRtg <94
Arizona, Louisville, UVA, Wichita St., SyracuseDRtg <93
Arizona, Louisville, UVA2 Teams with DRtg >95:
Wisconsin & KentuckySo you see it’s not an exact science but over time you can see trends and as such if you put yourself in that position you’ll increase your chances of success.
Thoughts on “playing your best at tourny time” vs. ratings?
It takes both.
Back in the days of the Great Herb Debate, I did an blog entry on the RPI Rankings at various NCAAT steps (S-16, E-8, and F-4) and included AP Rankings. I found that the AP Top10 was better at predicting NCAAT success than the RPI-Top10. My guess (then and now) is that the end of year success is more likely to figure in the AP rankings.
It’s also important to note that the RPI Top25 did a better job than the AP Top 25. My guess is that writers voting on reputation rather than results were more likely to show up in the Top 25 than in the Top 10.
When it comes to defense, who is out recruiting for defensive guys? Who is being evaluated on their defensive capabilities?
Was Anya recruited for offense? I assume defense and rebounding was a big factor in our desire to recruit him. And I assume the same for Freeman.
I assume Washington may have been recruited more for offense than those two, but still probably with a belief that he could evolve into a good defensive player.
I think it’s a given that our staff expected both Cat and Lee to be/become strong defensive players when they were being recruited.
That’s a whole recruiting class for which I assume defense was a strong consideration.
I’m not sure about the Martin twins, but I’ve read that Abu is a strong defender.
I don’t think our issue on defense is that our players aren’t capable of playing sound defense. Tyler was a liability on defense, and it obviously is/was not a strength for Turner or Vandenburg. (Though Turner’s deficiency was probably exacerbated by having to mostly defend the 2 rather than the 3 this past season.)
So it looks to me like our coaching staff is generally recruiting players who are talented enough to play good defense. If there is an issue, it seems to be in the defensive coaching, whether that is time spent practicing defense or scheme.
Good article Jigs And other input such as Tau837 above provide thoughts on the why and the future. As to your conclusion in the follow on discussion
“The conclusion is as long as Gottfried continues to produce defensive results that he has always produced then short of a miracle we have already seen what he will continue to provide. Is everyone happy with a ceiling of making it to the Sweet 16, maybe Elite Eight? Because even the Cinderella teams are better defensively than Gottfried’s teams have been.”
it sounds like a lawyer proving his point but may neglect some pieces of logic. If Gott improves his player personnel, do both lines track upward, offense moves well into FF quality and defense moves up into the low end for FF quality? I hope so. I guess a few more years will tell us, not next but the year after and from then on, I would hope to see both curves higher. But data does show where the focus is, and where it needs to increase.
it sounds like a lawyer proving his point but may neglect some pieces of logic. If Gott improves his player personnel, do both lines track upward, offense moves well into FF quality and defense moves up into the low end for FF quality? I hope so. I guess a few more years will tell us, not next but the year after and from then on, I would hope to see both curves higher. But data does show where the focus is, and where it needs to increase.
What have I neglected? I included 9 seasons of 2 teams he has coached and not once has he produced results that come close to entering FF territory on defense? He had plenty of time to improve personnel and implement a defensive system at Bama but that never improved. He hasn’t exactly been lacking in personnel at State, in fact I’d say the talent level at State has been better since day one then any season at Bama. Just how long does it take to improve defense with a team? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? Seriously I’d like to know because he’s had more than enough time to prove it on the court through his career and has yet to do it once. Your logic is the same as the HSSS and his improvement on offense will come years from now. My conclusion is based on actual facts. Yours is based on ignoring history and WTNY.
The question from the beginning was what does it take to reach the Final Four? I’ve presented clear data showing what the last 11 years of FF teams have had at a broad level of what it took for them. Then I compared 9 seasons of teams under Gottfried. Not once has he approached what it takes on the defensive side so again, without a clear change in defense or a fluke run Gottfried has a glass ceiling that is lower than the Final Four.
I don’t have numbers to back this up…but I always felt that, in a tournament sport, I would rather be “elite” offensively and “solid” defensively (as opposed to the reverse). But if you can’t make it to the “solid” threshhold, then you’re likely fatally flawed.
Last season, we had four bad defenders. Two are gone (Vandy and Lewis), one will move to a position he should more capable of defending (Turner), and one can get a little bit of a pass due to being a freshman (Washington – who was also the least bad of the four).
Abu is supposed to be very good on defense. We will have to see on Lacey, and the Martin twins are likely 5-10 mpg players at the outset. So…it looks like we have the raw material to be “solid” defensively next season. The proof will be in the pudding.
Tau37,
Here’s from the free section of Scout.com on the last 3 recruiting classes by Gott:
2015
Abu: Abu slots as a skilled utility forward. He’s a lively athlete and moves very well for a 6-8, 235-pound physical specimen, and his aggression pays off on both ends. He retrieves caroms for putbacks, muscles his way up as a finisher to score and draw trips to the foul line, and he’s also a scrapper on the backboard. He’s very effective as a high post shooter, smoothly knocking down 15-footers from the elbow. He does need to improve his defense. (Sounds like recruited for offense to me)Caleb Martin: Martin is a fine jump shooter with effortless three-point range. He fires in jumpers with an easy, mechanically sound stroke that should translate very well to the collegiate level. He also has broad shoulders and has become significantly stronger over the past couple years. With a college strength and conditioning regimen — along with a first step that’s now markedly quicker — he should be able to incorporate a driving game with his shooting. (Sounds like recruited for offense to me)
Cody Martin: No free information available
2014
Anya: A true old school center, Anya is comfortable in the paint and likes to throw his body around down low. Anya is a good rebounder and is very strong. He has extremely long arms which makes up for being a little bit short. Still needs to run the floor better and show the desire to be great at all times. With that said, Anya is one of the most productive players in the class down low. (I’d agree defense)Freeman: No free information. Late addition and project player.
Washington: No free information but was the worst defender in the front court. He was clearly all for offense.
Barber: Barber has the natural ability to be one of the best in the class. He has good size for a point guard and is an excellent athlete. Very few players are faster with the ball and get into the lane with the ease he does. His outside shot does need some work. Know as “Cat”, Barber is one of the premier floor leaders going in this class. (He was recruited to run the offense but his speed/athleticism are pluses for being able to defend)
Lee: No free information available. His JUCO stats showed he was a high volume 3 point shooter and State was losing their lone 3 point shooter to graduation. He was recruited for his offense.
Turner: No free information available. I’d compare how he plays defense but that would indicate he actually tried.
2013
Warren: Sometimes it can look like Warren is coasting, but he has a great skill set. A wing with a thick strong body, Warren can really shoot it from deep and knows how to create for himself despite not being a superior athlete for the position. He’s also starting to develop a mid-range game and he has great touch on his pull-ups and floaters. (Sounds like offense to me)Purvis: One of the best guards in the 2012 class, Purvis is a guy that can play both lead guard and scoring guard. Currently classified as a point guard, Purvis has terrific vision and is a talented passer. With that said, he’s a high-level scorer as well, that can put the ball in the basket in a variety of ways. His end-to-end speed and athleticism is what stands out the most and he’s a terrific finisher once near the rim. (Sounds like offense to me but his speed/athleticism would be necessary for a good defender, just like Barber)
Lewis: One of the top players in his class in North Carolina. Heady leader who has command of his team. Will distribute the basketball and has superior court vision. Jumper improves each season. Size, defensive ability are long term factors. However, Lewis continues to elevate his play. No matter the talent level on the floor, he plays a big role and incorporates his teammates into the game. Gifted young guard. (Sounds like offense to me)
You mention several times about expecting players to become good defensive players. How? Osmosis? If players don’t arrive with sound fundamentals then where are they going to learn them from? It has to be from the coaching staff. So the defensive results are a direct reflection of the coaching staff.
I’ve come to believe it is just not a focus with Gott. I mean I watch Tony Bennett and he’s expending energy on every defensive possession – he lives for it and expects his players to go all out on that end. Now I’m not expecting Gott to suddenly become Bennett, but it would be a step in the right direction to put a little more focus there. There were critical junctures in big games this year when we just disappeared defensively. Personnel should be better next year overall. But make no mistake TJ was a force on that end as well this year. Probably good for four to eight easy ones with his play alone.
Jiga, I didn’t say I disagreed with you. But you yourself say the personnel has better at NCSU than at Bama. That feeds into my point that as the quality of players improve, chances are both curves go up. If his talent at Bama was less that what we have had, he did pretty damn good. Maybe I’m wrong but I think all would agree that our players the last 3 years have not equaled Final Four quality, or even Duke and UNC quality. But they are good and getting better.
If he can get to the point year after year where he has players = to the boys in blue, logic says defense and offense will be better. But as good as FF teams?, that remains to be seen.And I do agree with you that your chart clearly shows he develops better offenses than defenses. Would love to see a move (Staff change?) to change that.
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